Covid19 Part XVII-24,841 in ROI (1,639 deaths) 4,679 in NI (518 deaths)(28/05)Read OP

ChikiChiki · 15-05-2020 09:30AM

Onesea wrote: »

The end of year figures will be interesting from the UK... No change in total death rate, wait and see.

Is this some kind of bizarre attempt at spin or what?

lawred2 · 15-05-2020 09:30AM

ceadaoin. wrote: »

yes, but at the risk of being called heartless etc, it's possible that many of those people would have died this year anyway (older, with underlying conditions etc). So I think its better to wait until the end of the year to see if there is a major spike in total deaths.

why not wait ten years? 25 years? 100 years?

Onesea · 15-05-2020 09:35AM

SeaBreezes wrote: »

Errrm except for the excess deaths for the last month, before countries started lockdown..

They really are dammed if they do, dammed if they dont aren't they?

Dont lock down and Health Systems are overloaded, huge spike in excess deaths and the virus gets free reign.

Lock down and lives are saved the virus is slowed down, more time to reseaarch it and understand and save lives, ICUs can treat people and those who wish to see it that way will say.. 'see the deaths rates werent so bad'

I mena it was only 2 weeks ago they discovered it was a blood clotting disease.
Think of the number of lives saved just knowing that alone. Knowing what they need to look for. Slowing it down just to give us time to learn, is a very good idea.

Join any FB COVID19 support group and you will see people with MILD symtons, still, 3 months later, unable to work, battling the disease. It seems to come in waves, which lessen but takes a LONG time to (if ever) leave the system completely. For some people.. and these are healthy people, no underlying conditions.

I find it very interesting, the media was ALL for a recession caused by a bank bailiout back when their properties/businesses were threatened and they needed to be Nama'ed, given tax payers money and not go bankrupt.

But now, when tax payers lives are at stake, its all about herd immunity.

But here you go.. explain these excess deaths in JUST ONE month..
These are compared to the average of the last 5 years for the same month..

What, all these people just upped and died of natural causes last month?

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1260233393838620675

BBC reports a total of 29k covid deaths as of 29th April. Monthly death rates in the UK are in about 47.5k per month, that going on 2017 averages.

Lets stick to the proven numbers and not confusing highlighted dramatisiced media.

15-05-2020 09:35AM

Onesea wrote: »

A preliminary estimate...

That's what it links to. Now put on your face mask and leave the house

Translation - I'll ignore the numbers I don't like and reply with a glib remark instead

PokeHerKing · 15-05-2020 09:35AM

Onesea wrote: »

A preliminary estimate...

That's what it links to. Now put on your face mask and leave the house

And you take off your tinfoil hat and leave your mams house.

Rob A. Bank · 15-05-2020 09:36AM

Onesea wrote: »

I didn't predict anything for the UK

Originally Posted by Onesea View Post
"The end of year figures will be interesting from the UK... No change in total death rate, wait and see."

Are you serious ???

:rolleyes:

Onesea · 15-05-2020 09:38AM

ek motor wrote: »

Yes it has been mostly older people dying from Covid-19, it doesn't make their lives any less valuable.

Quality of life of an 80 somthing year old v that of a young middle aged person is not the same.
Have you ever given a though to wonder what the opinion of the older generation is..

ek motor · 15-05-2020 09:40AM

ceadaoin. wrote: »

Yes you're right. Can't imagine why you would want to wait until after an event to get an accurate statistical assessment and proper tally, let's just not do that, and speculate instead.

Does the currently available data concern you in any way ?

ek motor · 15-05-2020 09:43AM

Onesea wrote: »

Quality of life of an 80 somthing year old v that of a young middle aged person is not the same.
Have you ever given a though to wonder what the opinion of the older generation is..

Quality of life is variable and subjective, many people in their 80s still enjoy life and live it to the fullest they can.

Random sample · 15-05-2020 09:46AM

It baffles me that someone would think that every 79-105 year old was going to die by the end of the year without an intervention from covid.

crossman47 · 15-05-2020 09:50AM

Random sample wrote: »

It baffles me that someone would think that every 79-105 year old was going to die by the end of the year without an intervention from covid.

Of course everyone would not but he has a point. I think excess deaths for the year as a whole will not be as great as we think now (and I speak as a 70+ who is being very careful). Covid, in some cases, has advanced death by a few months.

Onesea · 15-05-2020 09:50AM

ek motor wrote: »

Quality of life is variable and subjective, many people in their 80s still enjoy life and live it to the fullest they can.

That's true,my dad is 70 he has had hear issues in the past. He seems not to care about getting this virus. Much more concerned about getting out to the pub. His take on life is his own I guess.

seamus · 15-05-2020 09:52AM

PokeHerKing wrote: »

So this is a conspiracy yes? These deaths are not actually happening, that's what I'm reading from your posts?

Or could you elaborate on your point a but more if I'm misunderstanding you?

The argument is that we're "borrowing" deaths from later in the year, and the death rate will be lower than expected for the rest of the year, meaning there will overall be a balancing out.
And ultimately this line of argument is trying to say that we shouldn't have reacted to the virus at all, these people would have died anyway.

It has some grounding in reality. But it makes a couple of wild assumptions;

1. Everyone who has died from covid would have died in the next 6-12 months anyway
2. Everyone who was ever going to die from covid, has died.

Both of which of course, are not correct statements.

The baseline death rate for the rest of the year, probably will be down slightly on estimates - in Ireland it's been down on estimates even during covid. But it won't be 12.5% down in Italy, or even approaching that.

ek motor · 15-05-2020 09:54AM

Onesea wrote: »

That's true,my dad is 70 he has had hear issues in the past. He seems not to care about getting this virus. Much more concerned about getting out to the pub. His take on life is his own I guess.

I hear you, its funny how our parents spend so much of their lives looking after us, then in later years its us looking after them ! Circle of life I guess.

caveat emptor · 15-05-2020 09:55AM

IMO This is the best way to think about kids going back to school.

Don't send kids back to school
||
\. /
\/
If there is no second outbreak -> worst case outcome ->kids miss an extra two weeks.

or

Send kids back to school.

||
\. /
\/
worse case scenario = much much worse potentially.

https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1260941868579332100?s=20

https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1260943101469896711?s=20

Drumpot · 15-05-2020 09:59AM

There is no evidence that it’s safe to send children back to school. It’s basically countries/governments trying to get back to some sort of normality and get economies going. Given the fact that schools would be finishing up in a few weeks anyways the reasons for going back are very flimsy.

Even leaving it till September allows us more time to get more information and get more familiar with the virus. I understand the desire to get things moving again but it’s irresponsible given the lack of factual , definitive information available on children as spreaders and how it effects them Long term.

sheepsh4gger · 15-05-2020 10:04AM

Can you go to the post collection office if it's 12 km away? The stuff I ordered to work is now prolly stuck at the post office because the whole place is shut.

Onesea · 15-05-2020 10:05AM

Last crackpot post I promise

Up to today has the death toll in the UK surpassed 234k people?

growleaves · 15-05-2020 10:09AM

There Is No Evidence Lockdowns Saved Lives. It Is Indisputable They Caused Great Harm

Lockdowns ranged from severe, as in China’s Wuhan, to practically non-existent or highly localized, as in Botswana, where major cities saw greater control. If lockdowns worked as advertised, then we would not expect to see such enormous variability in the reported death rates. Belgium, again, had 751 per million, and Ethiopia, population 109.2 million, had the lowest reported non-zero death rate of 0.04 per million. This is a difference of 19 thousand times!

Ethiopia did declare a state of emergency, but had no lockdown. They also had from the US a “$37m package which encompassed case management, infection prevention and control, laboratory strengthening, public health screening, and communications and media campaigns, among others.”

Vietnam, population 95.5 million, which had a lockdown (they reported 18,000 businesses were forced to close), reported 0 deaths.

Sweden did better than the UK, and there couldn’t have been a greater difference in strategies. In the US, South Dakota, which had no lockdown, did 7 times better than Chicago (or all Illinois), which did.

Brazil did not have a country-wide lockdown, but a handful of cities threatened, and some carried out local measures. Same kind of thing in the US, with of course harsh mandatory measures in more enlightened cities, to nothing in all in some flyover cities. Japan did not have a lockdown and did fine, relatively speaking. It’s never mentioned in the press, though. Georgia (the country) appeared only to lockdown Tblisi.

Nermal · 15-05-2020 10:10AM

SeaBreezes wrote: »

Join any FB COVID19 support group and you will see people with MILD symtons, still, 3 months later, unable to work, battling the disease. It seems to come in waves, which lessen but takes a LONG time to (if ever) leave the system completely. For some people.. and these are healthy people, no underlying conditions.

Why would I join a Facebook group full of hypochondriac cranks?

SeaBreezes wrote: »

But here you go.. explain these excess deaths in JUST ONE month..

What's there to explain?

https://twitter.com/hector_drummond/status/1260670207967875072

Paddygreen · 15-05-2020 10:12AM

sheepsh4gger wrote: »

Can you go to the post collection office if it's 12 km away? The stuff I ordered to work is now prolly stuck at the post office because the whole place is shut.

Is any of the stuff you ordered essential???

Mullaghteelin · 15-05-2020 10:12AM

bekker wrote: »

Most of all, failure to implement a fast turnaround test, track and trace system with enforced monitored isolation of positives.

They really should just admit defeat on this front, and beg other countries or private companies to help. Its a total farce at this stage.

lawred2 · 15-05-2020 10:16AM

seamus wrote: »

The argument is that we're "borrowing" deaths from later in the year, and the death rate will be lower than expected for the rest of the year, meaning there will overall be a balancing out.
And ultimately this line of argument is trying to say that we shouldn't have reacted to the virus at all, these people would have died anyway.

It has some grounding in reality. But it makes a couple of wild assumptions;

1. Everyone who has died from covid would have died in the next 6-12 months anyway
2. Everyone who was ever going to die from covid, has died.

Both of which of course, are not correct statements.

The baseline death rate for the rest of the year, probably will be down slightly on estimates - in Ireland it's been down on estimates even during covid. But it won't be 12.5% down in Italy, or even approaching that.

sure you're going to die anyway and I don't really care whether it's today, tomorrow, next month, next year or whenever

lawred2 · 15-05-2020 10:17AM

Paddygreen wrote: »

Is any of the stuff you ordered essential???

ah ffs

yes - go to the post office and collect whatever it is that belongs to you

PokeHerKing · 15-05-2020 10:21AM

Onesea wrote: »

That's true,my dad is 70 he has had hear issues in the past. He seems not to care about getting this virus. Much more concerned about getting out to the pub. His take on life is his own I guess.

No different to people who smoke or eat themselves into obesity or take risks with their lives to get a great selfie.

When the $hit hits the fan for these people they will immediately shed their ignorance and look to the health service to save them.

It reminds me of the Simpsons episode when the town are rioting against science. Moe gets crushed and immediately states:

Oh, I'm paralyzed. I just hope medical science can cure me.

Onesea · 15-05-2020 10:22AM

Nermal wrote: »

Why would I join a Facebook group full of hypochondriac cranks?

What's there to explain?

https://twitter.com/hector_drummond/status/1260670207967875072

Wait for it.. They Wil dispute this

seamus · 15-05-2020 10:22AM

Nermal wrote: »

What's there to explain?

https://twitter.com/hector_drummond/status/1260670207967875072

This is a PERFECT example of manipulating figures to make them look smaller than they really are.

The average death rate for this period in the previous nine years is 4449 deaths.

The death rate of 5197 per million for this period, is a 16.8% increase on the average.

In fact, it's an 8.2% increase on the next-worst year in that period.

People like this guy build graphs like this so that at a glance people go, "Oh, 5,100 isn't that much worse than 4,800, maybe there is no issue here".

I'm surprised he didn't go with deaths per 100 million to make the figures even less significant. 48 -v- 51.

The reality is that this is 44,000 more people dead for this period than the average. Even if we take the next-worst year in that period, 23,000 additional people have died this year.

Do you see a once-in-a-century disaster here? Cos if you don't, then you must have your eyes closed.

AlmightyCushion · 15-05-2020 10:25AM

Nermal wrote: »

Why would I join a Facebook group full of hypochondriac cranks?

What's there to explain?

https://twitter.com/hector_drummond/status/1260670207967875072

That graph still shows there is a lot of excess deaths. The death rate is about 400 (nearly 10%) per thousand higher than the worst previous year. The population of England and Wales is over 50 million so that is an extra 20,000 deaths over their worst year in the past decade. As it only covers to the end of April, it doesn't cover any excess deaths in the past 2 weeks. If the extreme measures taken there over the past 2 months weren't put in place, the death toll would be even higher.

15-05-2020 10:27AM

growleaves wrote: »

There Is No Evidence Lockdowns Saved Lives. It Is Indisputable They Caused Great Harm

Ethiopia and Belgium are directly comparable.

Onesea · 15-05-2020 10:29AM

PokeHerKing wrote: »

No different to people who smoke or eat themselves into obesity or take risks with their lives to get a great selfie.

When the $hit hits the fan for these people they will immediately shed their ignorance and look to the health service to save them.

It reminds me of the Simpsons episode when the town are rioting against science. Moe gets crushed and immediately states:

Oh, I'm paralyzed. I just hope medical science can cure me.

Your pointing out a natural reaction. That has nothing to do with a situation being blown out of proportion.
Go and have a look at the post above.. There is no need to panic

Covid19 Part XVII-24,841 in ROI (1,639 deaths) 4,679 in NI (518 deaths)(28/05)Read OP

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