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Covid19 Part XVII-24,841 in ROI (1,639 deaths) 4,679 in NI (518 deaths)(28/05)Read OP

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  • #3782
    Jim_Hodge
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,120 ✭✭✭✭Jim_Hodge


    patnor1011 wrote: »
    Yes but does this warrant holding whole country locked up? We certainly can not afford it. Let the nature take the course.
    There is a term for that. Natural selection.

    You need to read up on the term Natural Selection because it doesn't fit your argument in the slightest.


  • #3783
    Miike
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,021 ✭✭✭Miike


    hmmm wrote: »
    Newer tests are probably going to just require saliva.

    The tests you linked aren't saliva tests though. I'm speaking specific to the link you've posted. If saliva tests manage to get to the same S&S as rRT-PCR then I have no doubts it would be easier to take a saliva sample.


  • #3784
    hmmm
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,203 ✭✭✭✭hmmm


    podgeandrodge wrote: »
    So with 47m population, 5% being 2.35m, and 1% deaths of those infected, you would get 23k deaths?
    Yep, their IFR has been calculated as 1.2% (27,000 deaths I believe). This will obviously depend on the demographics of who got infected also.

    Don't tell the restrictions thread, they're still telling everyone it's like stubbing your toe.


  • #3785
    hmmm
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,203 ✭✭✭✭hmmm


    Miike wrote: »
    The tests you linked aren't saliva tests though. I'm speaking specific to the link you've posted. If saliva tests manage to get to the same S&S as rRT-PCR then I have no doubts it would be easier to take a saliva sample.
    OK. The example I posted was just to show that there are already tests available for use at home, they will get better, cheaper and easier to use.


  • #3786
    D.Q
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,054 ✭✭✭D.Q


    patnor1011 wrote: »
    Yes but does this warrant holding whole country locked up? We certainly can not afford it. Let the nature take the course.
    There is a term for that. Natural selection.

    Several variations of this pathetic edgy garbage over the course of these threads. You should genuinely be ashamed of yourself.


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  • #3787
    bekker
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 912 ✭✭✭bekker


    hmmm wrote: »
    Newer tests are probably going to just require saliva.

    e.g. https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/Stanford-crafts-a-coronavirus-saliva-test-which-15265875.php
    No evidence in the article for that.

    It is just one of the many testing short-cuts being explored, no practical results for saliva testing reported.


  • #3788
    Martina1991
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,548 ✭✭✭Martina1991


    hmmm wrote:
    Newer tests are probably going to just require saliva.
    Saliva is a very unreliable sample type. It's prone to many contaminants. I would say the viral load wouldn't be enough to detect at low levels, especially if someone doesnt have symptoms.
    Hardly any diagnostic tests are carried out on saliva.


  • #3789
    growleaves
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,983 ✭✭✭growleaves


    podgeandrodge wrote: »
    That seems incredible if they are counting all those as Covid deaths??? Would massively impact the extent of their casualties no?
    Edit - that article you refer to is well over a month old now...perhaps they have a different view now..

    The joke on medical forums is that covid has cured heart disease and cancer.

    They might want to dial back on this stuff a little before it gets to North Korea levels of mendacity. Otherwise its going to look stupid even to the dogs in the street.


  • #3790
    hmmm
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,203 ✭✭✭✭hmmm


    bekker wrote: »
    No evidence in the article for that.

    It is just one of the many testing short-cuts being explored, no practical results for saliva testing reported.
    Tough audience.

    https://news.yale.edu/2020/04/24/saliva-samples-preferable-deep-nasal-swabs-testing-covid-19
    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.16.20067835v1#disqus_thread

    I hold no shares in saliva testing companies.


  • #3791
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,118 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    US has gone past 85,000 deaths.

    Doing great Donald. Amazing, the best, the greatest...

    Remember back in the day when it was "one guy coming from CHINA..." (all the way back in March)


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  • #3792
    patnor1011
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,301 ✭✭✭patnor1011


    D.Q wrote: »
    Several variations of this pathetic edgy garbage over the course of these threads. You should genuinely be ashamed of yourself.


    Please be more speciffic in your virtue signalling. Tell me exactly why I should be ashamed?


  • #3793
    wakka12
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,786 ✭✭✭wakka12


    patnor1011 wrote: »
    Please be more speciffic in your virtue signalling. Tell me exactly why I should be ashamed?

    Because youre being cold. Most people would consider the number of deaths(at least a few weeks ago) that were occurring from COVID to not be compatible with maintaining normal daily life for those unaffected by the virus


  • #3794
    patnor1011
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,301 ✭✭✭patnor1011


    Kermit.de.frog wrote: »
    US has gone past 85,000 deaths.

    Doing great Donald. Amazing, the best, the greatest...

    Remember back in the day when it was "one guy coming from CHINA..."

    Still not even close to Hong Kong flu pandemic (H3N2) of 1968. A pandemic that mirrored COVID-19 in that it was highly infectious and was primarily lethal to those over 65 with pre-existing conditions. A pandemic that infected millions of Americans and killed approximately 100,000 out of a then population of about 200 million. A pandemic which worldwide, killed upwards of 4 million people.


  • #3795
    hmmm
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,203 ✭✭✭✭hmmm


    patnor1011 wrote: »
    Still not even close to Hong Kong flu pandemic (H3N2) of 1968. A pandemic that mirrored COVID-19 in that it was highly infectious and was primarily lethal to those over 65 with pre-existing conditions. A pandemic that infected millions of Americans and killed approximately 100,000 out of a then population of about 200 million. A pandemic which worldwide, killed upwards of 4 million people.
    Uhm 85,000 US deaths out of, what are we guessing, less than 5% of the population infected ? Unchecked you'd possibly be seeing a million deaths.


  • #3796
    wakka12
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,786 ✭✭✭wakka12


    patnor1011 wrote: »
    Still not even close to Hong Kong flu pandemic (H3N2) of 1968. A pandemic that mirrored COVID-19 in that it was highly infectious and was primarily lethal to those over 65 with pre-existing conditions. A pandemic that infected millions of Americans and killed approximately 100,000 out of a then population of about 200 million. A pandemic which worldwide, killed upwards of 4 million people.

    Killed that number over the span of two years. This has been two months, and it's almost as high in the states


  • #3797
    patnor1011
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,301 ✭✭✭patnor1011


    wakka12 wrote: »
    Because youre being cold. Most people would consider the number of deaths(at least a few weeks ago) that were occurring from COVID to not be compatible with maintaining normal daily life for those unaffected by the virus

    Not cold. Not even close. I said many times that targeted response would be much better choice than full lockdown which is immaginary anyway.
    About third of workforce is still out there working trying to maintain this illusion.
    We are putting ourselves in debt which is going to drown us in years to come.
    Old and vulnerable people should have been protected and the rest of the people should keep going and work to help provide this care for them.


  • #3798
    Skyfloater
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 423 ✭✭Skyfloater


    hmmm wrote: »
    Uhm 85,000 US deaths out of, what are we guessing, less than 5% of the population infected ? Unchecked you'd possibly be seeing a million deaths.

    In an average year, 2.8 million Americans die, so 1 million ain't that bad considering the massive overlap.


  • #3799
    tobefrank321
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,527 ✭✭✭tobefrank321


    [Deleted User] wrote: »
    It was started on April 27th when there had already been 23000 deaths in Spain. It is also likely that most of those who died in the interim had already been infected by that point so I will stand by the 1.1%figure. Maybe between 0.9 and 1.2. Still a lot more serious than flu

    Few people are saying its "no more than a flu". For a small minority in the over 70 bracket its very dangerous, far more so than the flu. For a smaller minority in the U70s its far more dangerous than the flu.

    In a far far more reliable study than the Spanish antibody tests, 7000 Irish healthcare staff in Ireland contracted Covid 19. 5 of them passed away, a fatality rate of about 0.07% for the working age category.


  • #3800
    growleaves
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,983 ✭✭✭growleaves


    Skyfloater wrote: »
    In an average year, 2.8 million Americans die, so 1 million ain't that bad considering the massive overlap.

    South Dakota never locked down and had one of the lowest (if not the lowest) per capita death rates. The overall numbers are nowhere what was projected, potentially, whether a state was locked down or not.

    Of course someone will come in then and talk about population density, distribution etc. for South Dakota, Iowa - but if there are overriding factors which make lockdown irrelevant for these states then lockdown is not as significant as it made out to be in preventing deaths.


  • #3801
    hmmm
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,203 ✭✭✭✭hmmm


    tobefrank321 wrote: »
    In a far far more reliable study than the Spanish antibody tests, 7000 Irish healthcare staff in Ireland contracted Covid 19. 5 of them passed away, a fatality rate for this group of about 0.07%.
    There was nothing wrong with the Spanish study. IFRs will be hugely skewed by the age distribution of those who get the disease and the sample size.

    Lombardy IFR estimated at 1.29%
    New York 1.3%
    Gangelt, primarily young female & healthy 0.5%


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  • #3802
    iceage
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,533 ✭✭✭iceage


    HSE.ie has dropped the daily operations update off their website or have moved it elsewhere.. Anybody got an accurate link to the daily individual hospital updates?


  • #3803
    rachb
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31 ✭rachb


    bb1234567 wrote: »
    A lot more than 296k people have died though. In many countries in Europe half of deaths have not been reported, Iran Mexico Brazil Ecuador each individually have tens of thousands of unreported deaths. Who knows how many have died in China

    And 6 months?The first death in China occurred 4 months ago. The first deaths in the Western world occurred about 2.5 months ago. In South America about 6 weeks ago. It is totally disingenuous to say this has been going on for 6 months just because the first case occured in China 5 months ago

    It was in china longer than 5 months ago.

    https://news.sky.com/story/fighting-coronavirus-one-of-the-first-british-sufferers-describes-his-ordeal-11950631


  • #3804
    boring accountant
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 335 ✭✭boring accountant


    is_that_so wrote: »
    There won't be any challenges as it can be argued it is for the greater good, a key feature of our constitution.

    The word is common good and that is a matter of interpretation. Would this justification hold up if the lockdown lasted 20 years? Would it justify locking down every winter flu season? There’s a role for the courts to review these laws in light of the facts as they stand. It’s a crying shame those two morons squandered a good opportunity.


  • #3805
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 5,917 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    patnor1011 wrote: »
    Still not even close to Hong Kong flu pandemic (H3N2) of 1968. A pandemic that mirrored COVID-19 in that it was highly infectious and was primarily lethal to those over 65 with pre-existing conditions. A pandemic that infected millions of Americans and killed approximately 100,000 out of a then population of about 200 million. A pandemic which worldwide, killed upwards of 4 million people.

    From a quick search only Britannica claim up to 4 million deaths, everything else that a quick search gives 1 million including the CDC, with a vaccine being developed within 4 months but not readily available for the second more deadly wave of infections.

    So over two waves of infections 100,000 Americans died, and so far 85,000 officially from covid19 in the first wave of infections.


  • #3806
    wakka12
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,786 ✭✭✭wakka12


    growleaves wrote: »
    South Dakota never locked down and had one of the lowest (if not the lowest) per capita death rates. The overall numbers are nowhere what was projected, potentially, whether a state was locked down or not.

    Of course someone will come in then and talk about population density, distribution etc. for South Dakota, Iowa - but if there are overriding factors which make lockdown irrelevant for these states then lockdown is not as significant as it made out to be in preventing deaths.

    Do you think lockdowns should only be used in a targeted region/city specific manner in that case?


  • #3807
    Martina1991
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,548 ✭✭✭Martina1991


    hmmm wrote:
    Tough audience.

    I hold no shares in saliva testing companies.
    Interesting articles, but still pilot studies with small sample sizes using tests released under the Emergency Authorisation Use by the FDA.

    The FDA have given 69 different tests EAU since February. Thats a lot of unreliable manufactures churning out tests.

    PCR testing using nasopharengyl swabs is the Gold standard.


  • #3808
    tobefrank321
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,527 ✭✭✭tobefrank321


    hmmm wrote: »
    There was nothing wrong with the Spanish study. IFRs will be hugely skewed by the age distribution of those who get the disease and the sample size.

    Lombardy IFR estimated at 1.29%
    New York 1.3%
    Gangelt, primarily young female & healthy 0.5%

    Yes and you can see there the age related factor. The fatality rate starts to drop dramatically the younger you are.

    This is very much an age related illness in most countries with something like 90% of deaths in that age category. The BAME factor may skew it in certain countries though.

    Comparing it to the flu is a case of apples and oranges.


  • #3809
    MerlinSouthDub
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,627 ✭✭✭MerlinSouthDub


    iceage wrote: »
    HSE.ie has dropped the daily operations update off their website or have moved it elsewhere.. Anybody got an accurate link to the daily individual hospital updates?

    It is still on the website:

    https://www.hse.ie/eng/services/news/newsfeatures/covid19-updates/

    They seem to update it in the morning these days, so the update for 13th May should be published at 10 or 11 tomorrow - that's been the norm this week anyway


  • #3810
    tobefrank321
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,527 ✭✭✭tobefrank321


    Is it true there was 50 new cases in one day in Roscommon. Caused by a meat factory?


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  • #3811
    polesheep
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,950 ✭✭✭polesheep


    Spanish Eyes wrote: »
    OMG. Will be like the toilet roll muppets back a few weeks then.

    What in the name of Jayzis do people need so much anyway from ANY outlet? I suppose it is all in the name of going somewhere.

    No sense. But Mammon over God I suppose.

    Best of luck to all.

    Since the restrictions began we have four extra people in our home. Two of them are sleeping on the floor. They will go to ikea on Monday to buy a bed. They are not muppets and neither they nor I give a sh*t what you think.


This discussion has been closed.
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