Covid19 Part XVII-24,841 in ROI (1,639 deaths) 4,679 in NI (518 deaths)(28/05)Read OP

is_that_so · 13-05-2020 09:14AM

Here's some research on tracing apps, specifically the Singapore one, and how useful they might or might not be.

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2243137-bluetooth-may-not-work-well-enough-to-trace-coronavirus-contact

stephenjmcd · 13-05-2020 09:15AM

is_that_so wrote: »

I think suggested face coverings will be short term, especially when we finally get to an extended period of no new cases. The Czechs, for example, are relaxing some of their rules on 25 May. The extended 2 meter thing is likely to have a lot of long term psychological consequences.

The 2m social distance wont be followed long term, you wont see people going months without coming into close contact with friends, family, partners etc. There's only so long psychologically it can continue. I've already seen less compliance with it in the last week than I did since the start of this. Being social is human nature and eventually people revert to it

pc7 · 13-05-2020 09:17AM

Great to see New Zealand doing so well, if it works could every country not do it? Just lock everything down for 2 - 3 weeks? I know it sounds simplistic but would be better than rolling months of this ****e.

mandrake04 · 13-05-2020 09:18AM

Martina1991 wrote: »

I'd be interested to know what platform they're using to have that turnaround time.

Our labs are understaffed as it is. Setting up new labs from scratch would require a large investment in diagnostic laboratory services that is long overdue.

We wanted to have cytology labs dedicated to Cervical Check services. A third level course was implemented specifically for this purpose and it was outsourced instead. Labs closed, staff redeployed.

A Cobas 8800 can pump out first batch of 96 in 3.5 hrs and a 96 batch every 30 mins after that, does about 4000 per day.

This is what the Germans, S.Korea, NZ, Australia use for Covid

Also used in Cytology for HPV screening.

images?q=tbn%3AANd9GcSTsd0auQsGnn9k2_nXVnnIwwLEpZtz80vpzAvxZ5z_pLIrBD3o&usqp=CAU

images?q=tbn%3AANd9GcSTsd0auQsGnn9k2_nXVnnIwwLEpZtz80vpzAvxZ5z_pLIrBD3o&usqp=CAU

Cepheid GeneXpert infinity

Does about 2000 per day

images?q=tbn%3AANd9GcQLU-K4IvBBiCCP1BRa6rLCd_AM12e-4hJIswWHBnVDlKUT23SK&usqp=CAU

is_that_so · 13-05-2020 09:19AM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

The 2m social distance wont be followed long term, you wont see people going months without coming into close contact with friends, family, partners etc. There's only so long psychologically it can continue. I've already seen less compliance with it in the last week than I did since the start of this. Being social is human nature and eventually people revert to it

I agree, it can also give people a deep sense of suspicion of everyone they meet.

owlbethere · 13-05-2020 09:20AM

mandrake04 wrote: »

This could end up blowing up in their face, any of the handful of people on here that actually knows how PCR tests works would agree that although the test is 95-98% accurate there are a few drawbacks.

a) The sampling has to be successful, poorly collected sample or testing outside the test window is a problem. It’s possible to be infected but if you test too soon not enough of the virus present in the part of the body being collected. ie from a oropharyngeal or nasopharyngeal swab.

You could in theory get infected on your trip to the airport, walking through the airport or on the inbound flight and chances are it won’t show in a test for maybe 24-48 hrs. By the time you arrive at your destination you now have a false sense of security that you are clear but probably running around spreading it.

b) Depending on the brand and processing of the tests, most false negatives in molecular tests aside from poor sampling in in Pre-analytical handling. Those tests that require a fair bit of human handling are very susceptible to human error. You make 1 mistake and cause an serious outbreak and people die.

Although testing at the airport either inbound or outbound sounds good it’s the airport that is offering this, it’s all rather self-serving. It’s not in the airports interests not to have flights or no one travelling .....offering testing is one thing but establishing trust especially from other countries is totally different kettle of fish.

You have a country that spent Billions and weeks on lockdown to try and contain the virus and then on the basis of an airport test that ‘maybe’ wrong have some spreader arrive to commence another outbreak.

I think most countries will be playing the watch and see what happens elsewhere approach for a long time before they entertain this, the nature of the virus and how it spreads is not very competitive with international travel.

Thanks for this. This was running through my mind yesterday when I saw what Austria were doing. I thought its lovely window dressing and that's all it is. I never posted it here though.

is_that_so · 13-05-2020 09:22AM

pc7 wrote: »

Great to see New Zealand doing so well, if it works could every country not do it? Just lock everything down for 2 - 3 weeks? I know it sounds simplistic but would be better than rolling months of this ****e.

It is good for them but the problem in all of this is getting that like for like comparison to see what might work globally. NZ is about the same size as us but that's where the similarities end.

stephenjmcd · 13-05-2020 09:26AM

is_that_so wrote: »

I agree, it can also give people a deep sense of suspicion of everyone they meet.

Yeah I've noticed that over the few weeks and for society that isn't good either. In turn that basically leads to living life in fear if your constantly looking at everyone and analysing them and personally I dont intend to live in fear, when things reopen I intend to get back to as much normality as possible.

13-05-2020 09:39AM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

The 2m social distance wont be followed long term, you wont see people going months without coming into close contact with friends, family, partners etc. There's only so long psychologically it can continue. I've already seen less compliance with it in the last week than I did since the start of this. Being social is human nature and eventually people revert to it

Completely agree. Social distancing cannot form part of the approach (despite what the lunatic politician from NI said last night). Face masks on public transport, test & track & isolate, hygiene, and more WFH to reduce crowds on public transport. Treatments will improve and the health service is better prepared than at the start of this.

And within all that, we have to get back to normal. And those who are vulnerable need to take whatever are the appropriate measures to take care of themselves.

There has been an increasing amount of talk from figures in authority over recent days, including in the WHO and from the CMOs in the UK and US, that a vaccine might never be developed. And that is all the more reason that we need to get on with our lives

mandrake04 · 13-05-2020 09:40AM

owlbethere wrote: »

Thanks for this. This was running through my mind yesterday when I saw what Austria were doing. I thought its lovely window dressing and that's all it is. I never posted it here though.

You have to look at the bigger picture, the logistics for capacity and the trust that countries would bet their healthcare system and economy on it just for the airport and airlines to continue operating.

That’s the challenge in this.

hmmm · 13-05-2020 09:41AM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Yeah I've noticed that over the few weeks and for society that isn't good either. In turn that basically leads to living life in fear if your constantly looking at everyone and analysing them and personally I dont intend to live in fear

It's not about living in fear, it's about finding a way to safely get on with our lives while a new and dangerous virus is circulating and we have few treatments available.

Once we have a vaccine (hopefully in late 2021), and once we have better treatments (hopefully a lot sooner), we're hopefully going to be a lot more confident we have it under control.

In the longer term we will be able to stop/ease social distancing, but I could see some things lasting a lot longer - e.g. shaking hands might not be so common, WFH will be more common also.

owlbethere · 13-05-2020 09:43AM

I happened to catch a segment on prime time before going to before going to bed last night. It was a video call to an older man. He was wearing a pink check jacket. Who was he?

He was talking about being concerned about the younger generation and the linking them to the economy going forward saying old people should be cocooned away and get the young people back to work.

Oh my god, I wanted to smash in the TV. Where the fcuk was he over the past decade showing concern for the younger generation where a home was so out of reach for many of them. A house/a home was 11 times the national average wage compared to our parents day where it was 3 times the national average wage. Younger people were getting up early in the morning to earn a wage that never paid a rent, never mind a mortgage. How about considering the parents that many of these young people live with when they go out to work, that doesn't come into it, no?

Keep your cheap sh1te talk to yourself before you encourage disease to spread around our population.

hmmm · 13-05-2020 09:45AM

Deleted User wrote: »

There has been an increasing amount of talk from figures in authority over recent days, including in the WHO and from the CMOs in the UK and US, that a vaccine might never be developed.

I don't think this is deliberate, we're maybe just picking up on it more and the media are certainly reporting it more.

Every scientist when asked says "well of course there are unknowns when developing a vaccine", but the media reports that as "There might never be a vaccine" which sounds very definite.

13-05-2020 09:45AM

owlbethere wrote: »

I happened to catch a segment on prime time before going to before going to bed last night. It was a video call to an older man. He was wearing a pink check jacket. Who was he?

He was talking about being concerned about the younger generation and the linking them to the economy going forward saying old people should be cocooned away and get the young people back to work.

Oh my god, I wanted to smash in the TV. Where the fcuk was he over the past decade showing concern for the younger generation where a home was so out of reach for many of them. A house/a home was 11 times the national average wage compared to our parents day where it was 3 times the national average wage. Younger people were getting up early in the morning to earn a wage that never paid a rent, never mind a mortgage. How about considering the parents that many of these young people live with when they go out to work, that doesn't come into it, no?

Keep your cheap sh1te talk to yourself before you encourage disease to spread around our population.

FWIW, I agree with him. As do my own elderly parents

Longing · 13-05-2020 09:45AM

Suitition in Wuhan very serious the authorities to test the entire population of 11 million in 10 days. This is after the reported leak of a cluster outbreak last week were parts of the city were put in lockdown again.

pjohnson · 13-05-2020 09:47AM

owlbethere wrote: »

I happened to catch a segment on prime time before going to before going to bed last night. It was a video call to an older man. He was wearing a pink check jacket. Who was he?

He was talking about being concerned about the younger generation and the linking them to the economy going forward saying old people should be cocooned away and get the young people back to work.

Oh my god, I wanted to smash in the TV. Where the fcuk was he over the past decade showing concern for the younger generation where a home was so out of reach for many of them. A house/a home was 11 times the national average wage compared to our parents day where it was 3 times the national average wage. Younger people were getting up early in the morning to earn a wage that never paid a rent, never mind a mortgage. How about considering the parents that many of these young people live with when they go out to work, that doesn't come into it, no?

Keep your cheap sh1te talk to yourself before you encourage disease to spread around our population.

Yep. The faux concern about the younger generation has replaced the faux concern about mental health as the excuse they pedal to try and get traction.

stephenjmcd · 13-05-2020 09:49AM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Completely agree. Social distancing cannot form part of the approach (despite what the lunatic politician from NI said last night). Face masks on public transport, test & track & isolate, hygiene, and more WFH to reduce crowds on public transport. Treatments will improve and the health service is better prepared than at the start of this.

And within all that, we have to get back to normal. And those who are vulnerable need to take whatever are the appropriate measures to take care of themselves.

There has been an increasing amount of talk from figures in authority over recent days, including in the WHO and from the CMOs in the UK and US, that a vaccine might never be developed. And that is all the more reason that we need to get on with our lives

Exactly my thoughts.

I'm not saying we'll see these things anytime soon, more so in 2021 I would imagine, but mass events in stadiums, concerts, travel will all resume at some point with or without a vaccine.

I've always said during this that signals seem to be that there'll be some sort of effective treatment well before a vaccine.

daydorunrun · 13-05-2020 09:52AM

owlbethere wrote: »

I happened to catch a segment on prime time before going to before going to bed last night. It was a video call to an older man. He was wearing a pink check jacket. Who was he?

He was talking about being concerned about the younger generation and the linking them to the economy going forward saying old people should be cocooned away and get the young people back to work.

Oh my god, I wanted to smash in the TV. Where the fcuk was he over the past decade showing concern for the younger generation where a home was so out of reach for many of them. A house/a home was 11 times the national average wage compared to our parents day where it was 3 times the national average wage. Younger people were getting up early in the morning to earn a wage that never paid a rent, never mind a mortgage. How about considering the parents that many of these young people live with when they go out to work, that doesn't come into it, no?

Keep your cheap sh1te talk to yourself before you encourage disease to spread around our population.

AFAIK he us a professor from a uk university- thats where he was for the past decade too I'd imagine.

is_that_so · 13-05-2020 09:52AM

Longing wrote: »

Suitition in Wuhan very serious the authorities to test the entire population of 11 million in 10 days. This is after the reported leak of a cluster outbreak last week were parts of the city were put in lockdown again.

I don't think it's because it's serious, it's because they can test 11 million people! It'll be good data for all of the rest of us.

owlbethere · 13-05-2020 09:57AM

pjohnson wrote: »

Yep. The faux concern about the younger generation has replaced the faux concern about mental health as the excuse they pedal to try and get traction.

Faux concern and that's all it is. They are only concerned about the possibility of any financial investments going south and that's about it.

silverharp · 13-05-2020 10:05AM

One of the main German Virologist Drosten cast doubt on the French story about a December case, there was most likely cross contamination when performing the test because a control is used. According to him they havnt tested this person for antibodies so dont give it much weight.

Cal4567 · 13-05-2020 10:07AM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

The 2m social distance wont be followed long term, you wont see people going months without coming into close contact with friends, family, partners etc. There's only so long psychologically it can continue. I've already seen less compliance with it in the last week than I did since the start of this. Being social is human nature and eventually people revert to it

I disagree. I think it can continue, perhaps not for everyone but the majority. 8 weeks in to this and I'm as aware of the risks as I was back in mid March. Even more so. I can adapt if necessary.

I might be better of as before all this I enjoyed just my family's company, have no great desire to go meeting loads of people in crowded settings, and fortunate I can work mostly from home. Yes, I am very lucky for all of these reasons while others either haven't a choice or just want to get back drinking in pubs or night clubs or want to go and watch quality sport.

snowstorm445 · 13-05-2020 10:09AM

Some cautiously positive news out of Germany this morning, reproduction rate has fallen back below 1.

https://www.thelocal.de/20200513/latest-germanys-coronavirus-infection-rate-drops-below-critical-value

GazzaL · 13-05-2020 10:12AM

snowstorm445 wrote: »

Some cautiously positive news out of Germany this morning, reproduction rate has fallen back below 1.

https://www.thelocal.de/20200513/latest-germanys-coronavirus-infection-rate-drops-below-critical-value

Fantastic news. The report from the Robert Koch Institute says that a "renewed upward trend" is not expected in Germany. Looks like Ireland needs to pull the finger out.

wakka12 · 13-05-2020 10:16AM

Longing wrote: »

Suitition in Wuhan very serious the authorities to test the entire population of 11 million in 10 days. This is after the reported leak of a cluster outbreak last week were parts of the city were put in lockdown again.

Surely impossible. The entire EU has only tested about 15 million people in total as of mid-May..

is_that_so · 13-05-2020 10:18AM

wakka12 wrote: »

Surely impossible. The entire EU has only tested about 15 million people in total as of mid-May..

It's China and they built a hospital in 10 days!

owlbethere · 13-05-2020 10:19AM

is_that_so wrote: »

It's China and they built a hospital in 10 days!

Didn't their makeshift hospital collapse?

is_that_so · 13-05-2020 10:20AM

Cal4567 wrote: »

I disagree. I think it can continue, perhaps not for everyone but the majority. 8 weeks in to this and I'm as aware of the risks as I was back in mid March. Even more so. I can adapt if necessary.

I might be better of as before all this I enjoyed just my family's company, have no great desire to go meeting loads of people in crowded settings, and fortunate I can work mostly from home. Yes, I am very lucky for all of these reasons while others either haven't a choice or just want to get back drinking in pubs or night clubs or want to go and watch quality sport.

While there seems to be a threat yes, but as I said 3 weeks or more of no new cases and nobody in hospital is a much bigger sell. Bear in mind too that the much-feared second wave on relaxing restrictions looks like it is not a real risk.

seamus · 13-05-2020 10:24AM

hmmm wrote: »

A number of businesses are finding that staff enjoy working from home, and they are not seeing any productivity differences. If you're a CFO seeing this, it would make sense to seriously consider whether you need to have all the office space you currently have.

This is a topic I've been thinking about for a couple of years. There was a decent sized thread on it just a couple of months back.

Working from home was always going to be the next big revolution. There was considerable resistance from certain quarters; commercial property investors, oil producers, etc; but it was making inroads and the benefits couldn't be denied.

This just forced it to be adopted faster and wider. A LOT of people won't be going back to the office, ever. Or will do 3 days at home, and 2 days in the office. The companies who were resistant to it can now see the benefits too, and are all over it. It's not for everyone. Clearly. There are lots of people sitting at home who'd love to be at work. Lots of people who don't have the space to work from home long-term. Lots of people whose role is more efficient when contact is face-to-face. But there are huge swathes of the workforce who don't need to be in an office.

It's not just working from home. There are lots of other things that have changed overnight. In Dublin, they've started building huge swathes of cycle lanes. They're planning on pedestrianising College Green. The objections to these developments are now meaningless and the city council is ploughing on regardless.

The NBRU is today talking about abandoning some big projects in favour of a widespread bus corridor system. They're not entirely right, but they are right that now is the time to steamroll through simple infrastructural changes when they can be justified.

Many people have realised that they don't actually need two cars. They don't need big cars. They're realising the benefit of walking and cycling to local areas, for themselves and their kids.

It's not just business, huge adjustments are being made by people in all areas of life, and they won't just revert to normal in 2021.

GazzaL wrote: »

Fantastic news. The report from the Robert Koch Institute says that a "renewed upward trend" is not expected in Germany. Looks like Ireland needs to pull the finger out.

Pull the finger out of what? We have a plan, we have dates. Do you want them to bring it forward by five days because you're bored?

stephenjmcd · 13-05-2020 10:34AM

Cal4567 wrote: »

I disagree. I think it can continue, perhaps not for everyone but the majority. 8 weeks in to this and I'm as aware of the risks as I was back in mid March. Even more so. I can adapt if necessary.

I might be better of as before all this I enjoyed just my family's company, have no great desire to go meeting loads of people in crowded settings, and fortunate I can work mostly from home. Yes, I am very lucky for all of these reasons while others either haven't a choice or just want to get back drinking in pubs or night clubs or want to go and watch quality sport.

I completely see your point of view. It's an individual preference and one size doesn't fit all sort of thing.

I'm spending most of my time at home and previously I'd have been very socially active, gym, sporting events, socialising etc so to not have them at the moment is a huge difference for me. I can without for a few months and I've no issue putting them off until August or whenever they might resume. I'll never take for granted a Friday night at a league of Ireland match or a GAA match on a Sunday for granted again after this.

Covid19 Part XVII-24,841 in ROI (1,639 deaths) 4,679 in NI (518 deaths)(28/05)Read OP

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