Covid19 Part XVII-24,841 in ROI (1,639 deaths) 4,679 in NI (518 deaths)(28/05)Read OP

Funsterdelux · 11-05-2020 10:12PM

Miike wrote: »

If this virus is "burned out" in 2 weeks as of Saturday I will live stream me eating a pair of scrubs, a full set of PPE and my shoes to the entire nation.

I hope I am wrong, I really do. I just don't see how it's logical or possible given what we're seeing in other places and the nature of the disease.

From the indo Prof Michael Levitt

In early February, as many scientists warned of exponential growth, Levitt forecast the total number of confirmed Covid-19 cases in China would taper out at around 80,000, with 3,250 deaths. Three months on, China has a total of 82,885 cases and 4,633 deaths - in a population of 1.4bn.

USA as of today Cases 1,380,915 Deaths 81,485

Anybody know has he done any modelling for the USA?

I smell BS*

Shelly66 · 11-05-2020 10:13PM

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

Paul Reid was saying 3 days then 2.5 days from referral test and result

Is contact tracing still being done?

At moment I still waiting on test results 5 days tomorrow! I rang gp Wednesday afternoon , she sent referral to hse, 5 mins after she hung up I had 2 calls from hse to book me in following morning Thursday at Croke Park . Had test and told 2-3 days wait , I am still waiting and anxious . I don’t think I have it, but prefer to get clarity. Symptoms where sudden fatigue , headache, slight breathlessness which I get if fatigued as had cancer treatment a few years ago . Slight cough. I think 5 days to wait is too long. How can they ramp up testing if turn around Times this long

El Weirdo · 11-05-2020 10:13PM

Is the test result required to begin the contact tracing? Could the process not begin as soon as you're referred for the test? Or would that mean too many wild goose chases?

jesus_thats_gre · 11-05-2020 10:14PM

El Weirdo wrote: »

Is the test result required to begin the contact tracing? Could the process not begin as soon as you're referred for the test? Or would that mean too many wild goose chases?

As low as 4% of tests have been positive at some points..

Shelly66 · 11-05-2020 10:16PM

El Weirdo wrote: »

Is the test result required to begin the contact tracing? Could the process not begin as soon as you're referred for the test? Or would that mean too many wild goose chases?

You need to contact trace only positive cases , they can’t get results out quickly for tests never mind doing contact tracing , need results back within 48 hrs I feel to make an impact

Micky 32 · 11-05-2020 10:18PM

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Looks like virus is vanishing as quickly as it appeared. Even the UK and USA are seeing huge decline .

We'll be back wrecking the planet in no time, and not a thing will have been learned.

Good if you’re correct, the sooner it vanishes the better. You’d swear the alarmist tree huggers would love to see people locked up indefinately so that their little cabbage patch grows greener .

DevilsHaircut · 11-05-2020 10:21PM

People should also take responsibility and do their own contact tracking, i.e. document their close contacts every day and make a list of phone numbers for them.

This would be more accurate as it would be closer to 'real time' and would speed up the tracing process.

They could also notify contacts if/when they start to experience symptoms. The contacts would then hopefully exercise more caution (not necessarily go into self-isolation).

Funsterdelux · 11-05-2020 10:26PM

Micky 32 wrote: »

Good if you’re correct, the sooner it vanishes the better. You’d swear the alarmist tree huggers would love to see people locked up indefinately so that their little cabbage patch grows greener .

Those pesky treehuggers, wanting our children and grandchildren to have clean air, water and some biodiversity left so they can live in the future.

bekker · 11-05-2020 10:29PM

El Weirdo wrote: »

Is the test result required to begin the contact tracing? Could the process not begin as soon as you're referred for the test? Or would that mean too many wild goose chases?

Theoretically it could and should, but in addition to the 'wild-goose chase', factoring in the human element you face the real problem of both tracer and testee knowing that it's not 'real', i.e. a fire drill versus an actual fire situation.

Anecdotal reports are suggesting that the interrogation of the testee is neither probing or proactive.

Micky 32 · 11-05-2020 10:31PM

Funsterdelux wrote: »

Those pesky treehuggers, wanting our children and grandchildren to have clean air, water and some biodiversity left so they can live in the future.

Sure if you want to sit at home all day looking out your window watching your cabbage patch grow while munching on a piece of lettuce feel free to do so.

I’m quite sure “our” children and grandchildren will do just fine.

Eod100 · 11-05-2020 10:31PM

El Weirdo wrote: »

Is the test result required to begin the contact tracing? Could the process not begin as soon as you're referred for the test? Or would that mean too many wild goose chases?

I guess in an ideal world results of tests would be back quicker to contact trace as soon as possible.

I was thinking the same as you that maybe they could assume a test referral is a presumptive positive case until a negative result is provided but when they're gearing up to 100,000 tests per week and say 10% are positive, that would be 90,000 negative test results. If each of them had just 1 contact to trace that's 90,000 calls.

I guess it helps that most people are staying at home too unless they're an essential worker and besides for exercise and shopping. Like others say, would be good for people to keep record of anyone they are in close contact with. For most people, it will just be family members these days.

I know with the return to work guidance, employers will have to keep attendance logs. Guess they might need to keep seating plans too.

speckle · 11-05-2020 10:32PM

DevilsHaircut wrote: »

People should also take responsibility and do their own contact tracking, i.e. document their close contacts every day and make a list of phone numbers for them.

This would be more accurate as it would be closer to 'real time' and would speed up the tracing process.

They could also notify contacts if/when they start to experience symptoms. The contacts would then hopefully exercise more caution (not necessarily go into self-isolation).

Agreed said it a while back only takes a couple a minutes a day. Keep a list and any shop receipts/card for two weeks and bin the oldest ones.
Also suggested asking the universitys who have degrees in anthropology or ethnology aswell as social sciences/public health for volunteers. Antropology and ethnology students past and present and lecturers have some training in this area.

Eod100 · 11-05-2020 10:35PM

Micky 32 wrote: »

Sure if you want to sit at home all day looking out your window watching your cabbage patch grow while munching on a piece of lettuce feel free to do so.

I’m quite sure “our” children and grandchildren will do just fine.

That's gas. Do you thinking having access to your own food supply is a bad thing?

After this would have thought more people would be growing things if anything. Saves money, guarantees a food source and avoids environmental impact. And no I'm not a treehugger, cabbage patch grower or kid or lettuce eater, for what it's worth :P

Funsterdelux · 11-05-2020 10:36PM

Micky 32 wrote: »

Sure if you want to sit at home all day looking out your window watching your cabbage patch grow while munching on a piece of lettuce feel free to do so.

I’m quite sure “our” children and grandchildren will do just fine.

Cabbage patches require work, so theyre probably not sitting inside all day looking out the window at them.

WoollyRedHat · 11-05-2020 10:37PM

I think if we do see a continued trend of cases decreasing from ICU numbers to deaths etc. that while cautious optimism should be welcomed, we cannot give rise to complacency, we must practice good social distancing, good hygiene and hope that our government continues to ramp up test and tracing while improving turnaround times for results. We should be wary of the virus causing new outbreaks. It still has potency to spread and infect.

Imagine a crew on a ship that has chartered dangerous waters, and has weathered the storm. Just because the water is now calm does not mean the crew abandon all sense of caution and forget about safety systems which have helped them before and will warn them of further dangers ahead. They remain alert as they know the sea is unpredictable and unassuming.

We have to remain alert even if it appears we have weathered the worst of the storm, there is a chance that bigger waves will come and if we're not prepared and give way to complacency and abandon all sense of caution, then it could be worse than before, we have to be alert and ready for a calm before a more potentially deadlier storm, until we successfully eradicate the virus; have conclusive proof it is no longer as potent as it was before, the threat still exists, we may see land, but we're still at sea, there might be more storms waiting for us before we get back to port.

Eod100 · 11-05-2020 10:38PM

speckle wrote: »

Agreed said it a while back only takes a couple a minutes a day. Keep a list and any shop receipts/card for two weeks and bin the oldest ones.
Also suggested asking the universitys who have degrees in anthropology or ethnology aswell as social sciences/public health for volunteers. Antropology and ethnology students past and present and lecturers have some training in this area.

I think it was mentioned in passing at one of the health briefings as a good thing to do but not sure why it wasn't encouraged more. It's a very practical thing that only takes a few minutes.

Other thing I'm not sure wasn't recommended was why people weren't being asked to measure their temperature before going to work as an essential worker say. Maybe most people would notice if they had a fever or they could have been asymptomatic but think it could have helped.

Professor Moriarty · 11-05-2020 10:40PM

Micky 32 wrote: »

Sure if you want to sit at home all day looking out your window watching your cabbage patch grow while munching on a piece of lettuce feel free to do so.

I’m quite sure “our” children and grandchildren will do just fine.

No they won't. Life during this pandemic will have been nirvana compared to what life will be like in 20 year's time. But don't worry about it, we've passed tipping point so just enjoy what's left of the journey.

bekker · 11-05-2020 10:41PM

KdG on TonightVMTV - hope to be in position to start community antibody prevalence testing in June.

s1ippy · 11-05-2020 10:41PM

Micky 32 wrote: »

Sure if you want to sit at home all day looking out your window watching your cabbage patch grow while munching on a piece of lettuce feel free to do so.

I’m quite sure “our” children and grandchildren will do just fine.

What? Have the last thirty years of accelerated climate mayhem not happened to you?

Eod100 · 11-05-2020 10:42PM

WoollyRedHat wrote: »

I think if we do see a continued trend of cases decreasing from ICU numbers to deaths etc. that while cautious optimism should be welcomed, we cannot give rise to complacency, we must practice good social distancing, good hygiene and hope that our government continues to ramp up test and tracing while improving turnaround times for results. We should be wary of the virus causing new outbreaks. It still has potency to spread and infect.

Imagine a crew on a ship that has chartered dangerous waters, and has weathered the storm. Just because the water is now calm does not mean the crew abandon all sense of caution and forget about safety systems which have helped them before and will warn them of further dangers ahead. They remain alert as they know the sea is unpredictable and unassuming.

We have to remain alert even if it appears we have weathered the worst of the storm, there is a chance that bigger waves will come and if we're not prepared and give way to complacency and abandon all sense of caution, then it could be worse than before, we have to be alert and ready for a calm before a more potentially deadlier storm, until we successfully eradicate the virus; have conclusive proof it is no longer as potent as it was before, the threat still exists, we may see land, but we're still at sea there might be more storms waiting for us before we get back to port.

That's a good analogy. I think bits in bold are definitely important. I guess people will have to realise we're not going back to normal. We have reduced cases because of the restrictions. It's like at the start we were waiting for the tsunami to come so everyone was very conscious of restrictions and of new cases.

We still need to be like that as any new cases need to be found, isolated, tested and contact traced as soon as possible. That's how you stay on top of it and give people confidence to live a life with less restrictions.

Micky 32 · 11-05-2020 10:43PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

No they won't. Life during this pandemic will have been nirvana compared to what life will be like in 20 year's time. .

More alarmist nonsense.

Professor Moriarty · 11-05-2020 10:44PM

Micky 32 wrote: »

More alarmist nonsense.

Keep thinking that. Stay happy.

podgeandrodge · 11-05-2020 10:45PM

Funsterdelux wrote: »

Those pesky treehuggers, wanting our children and grandchildren to have clean air, water and some biodiversity left so they can live in the future.

Exactly. They are a nuisance.

Eod100 · 11-05-2020 10:46PM

bekker wrote: »

KdG on TonightVMTV - hope to be in position to start community antibody prevalence testing in June.

I know the test isn't likely that sophisticated but would be great if it could give you a rough timeline of when you had the virus if you were symptomatic. Handy to know when the earliest case was and how it spread.

As others said was a pity it didn't turn your toe purple or something so people would pick up on it..

11-05-2020 10:48PM

Miike wrote: »

Super spreading event in South Korea, mass shutdowns of nightclubs as a result. Case closed.

Nightclubs.. madness people need to get a grip. Nightclubs are a complete no no until a vaccine or a very good treatment is available.

Micky 32 · 11-05-2020 10:49PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Stay happy.

Thank you.

What Username Guidelines · 11-05-2020 11:01PM

Eod100 wrote: »

As others said was a pity it didn't turn your toe purple or something so people would pick up on it..

Funny you should say that...

https://twitter.com/medscape/status/1258776423059382279?s=21

Eod100 · 11-05-2020 11:06PM

What Username Guidelines wrote: »

Funny you should say that...

https://twitter.com/medscape/status/1258776423059382279?s=21

I know yeah, saw that alright! Guess that's in symptomatic people. Would be great if there was something that everyone got just so they were aware to self isolate.

Strazdas · 11-05-2020 11:09PM

weisses wrote: »

so more then 500000 have antibodies

total cases 42000

So the group of people with antibodies is 12 times larger then the people actually being tested positive

I'm not sure that tells us much. The vast majority of those 500,000 (if they even exist) would be asymptomatic. They may not even have immunity to contracting the virus again.

ZX7R · 11-05-2020 11:17PM

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

Paul Reid was saying 3 days then 2.5 days from referral test and result

Is contact tracing still being done?

On the radio today during an interview it was definitely said turn around was 2.5 days but the problem lay in that some department areas relay of information was still done by snail-mail rather than a click of a button.
Hard to believe in this day and age

Covid19 Part XVII-24,841 in ROI (1,639 deaths) 4,679 in NI (518 deaths)(28/05)Read OP

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