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Covid19 Part XVII-24,841 in ROI (1,639 deaths) 4,679 in NI (518 deaths)(28/05)Read OP

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  • #2762
    kippy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,208 ✭✭✭✭kippy


    Eod100 wrote: »
    I think rapid mass testing and contact tracing, wearing face masks, social distancing and no mass gatherings needs to be part of solution.

    Mass testing to quickly test people to limit spread. Big issue is asymptomatic infection though.
    Agreed, I don't think many would disagree with this in he short/medium term coupled with international travel restrictions


  • #2763
    Duke of Url
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,662 ✭✭✭Duke of Url


    wakka12 wrote: »
    New cases down to a very manageable level. I definitely think lockdown phases will be sped up. It would be crazy to actually maintain the August date for phase 5 with this few cases occurring

    Can you expand on this?

    Cases are only down to a manageable level due to the restrictions currently in place.

    why would we speed up on removing restrictions?


  • #2764
    Arghus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,156 ✭✭✭✭Arghus


    ACitizenErased wrote: »
    To be fair, we didn't experience a major surge like other countries.

    Compared to some of the worst hit countries, but we've had a bigger and more dealy outbreak than many other European countries. Many of whom had their first reported cases before us.

    We've done well to contain it, but an amazing amount of people can't get the basic fact that restrictions were what contained the spread.


  • #2765
    kippy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,208 ✭✭✭✭kippy


    Duke of Url wrote: »
    Can you expand on this?

    Cases are only down to a manageable level due to the restrictions currently in place.

    why would we speed up on removing restrictions?

    They are indeed but some restrictions can and should be eased off earlier.


  • #2766
    jobeenfitz
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,454 ✭✭✭jobeenfitz


    padjocollins wrote: »
    https://unherd.com/thepost/nobel-prize-winning-scientist-the-covid-19-epidemic-was-never-exponential/

    I think this is really interesting. The one downside I noticed when the scientist was asked what happens next, he just rambled on not answering the question. I would have preferred to have heard his opinion or just say, Im not sure.


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  • #2767
    owlbethere
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,329 ✭✭✭owlbethere


    s1ippy wrote: »
    That'd be class.

    It would be the best thing ever but to be honest, I don't believe it for a minute. I was being sarcastic in an earlier post about this.

    The virus will only run out when it runs out from hosts to survive in. If the virus was lethal killing its hosts, it would probably die out because people wouldn't be able to move around to transmit it to others. That's not the case with this virus. The virus has a sweet spot with asymptomatic people and people being infectious before symptoms. We would need a vaccine or herd immunity before it will die out.


  • #2768
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Duke of Url wrote: »
    Can you expand on this?

    Cases are only down to a manageable level due to the restrictions currently in place.

    why would we speed up on removing restrictions?
    I can see why the suggestion would be made. The long extended unwinding gives us plenty of time to respond to anything that happens. I don't think it will make make any difference to the first 2-3 phases but what it might mean is that some options currently set for Phases 5 might now move to Phase 4.


  • #2769
    ACitizenErased
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,749 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    https://twitter.com/datavizireland/status/1259896465041784839?s=20


  • #2770
    GM228
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,922 ✭✭✭GM228


    Assuming the reporting is correct there is either for the first time no cumulative increase in ICU numbers between the 8th and 9th or there has been an unspecified adjustment.


  • #2771
    Eod100
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,151 ✭✭✭✭Eod100


    Jim_Hodge wrote: »
    RTE News


    Don't we know? Many people still haven't grasped what the restrictions were designed to do.
    Arghus wrote: »
    A lot of people think that because a surge didn't happen that the whole thing is overblown. The relaxation of restrictions thread is exhibit A.

    I don't think that's necessarily a negative thing on it's own right. I think rightly at this juncture the cases are leveling off as a result of the restrictions.

    It's only a negative thing if it influences their behavior. I can see know why the mantra was that coming down the peak is as difficult as flattening the curve.

    But yeah need to communicate to these people that still need to follow restrictions even if they are gradually eased.


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  • #2772
    GM228
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,922 ✭✭✭GM228


    ACitizenErased wrote: »
    https://twitter.com/datavizireland/status/1259896465041784839?s=20

    136?


  • #2773
    ACitizenErased
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,749 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    GM228 wrote: »
    136?
    Think he meant 139, the growth will still be the same


  • #2774
    ACitizenErased
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,749 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    https://twitter.com/higginsdavidw/status/1259898095673970691?s=20


  • #2775
    Jim_Hodge
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,098 ✭✭✭✭Jim_Hodge


    owlbethere wrote: »
    We have a Nobel prize winner telling us the virus is going to vanish in 2 weeks time.

    I hope he's right but he's a computer modelling expert not an epidemiologist and this is a very new and different virus.


  • #2776
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,780 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    If we take a fair reflection over the last 6 weeks, I think from where we were , the situation at present is pretty much at the best case scenario.

    Let's hope the disease is waning and losing its punch.


  • #2777
    lbj666
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,027 ✭✭✭lbj666


    Arghus wrote: »
    A lot of people think that because a surge didn't happen that the whole thing is overblown. The relaxation of restrictions thread is exhibit A.

    As another poster said the morons need to be explained their logic in terms they understand "We did the thing to stop it being really bad, it didnt turn out really bad , so why did we do the thing to stop it being really bad?"


    Is anyone else trying to plot the rate of regression of new cases, from my very crude google sheets ploting 5 days averages and using a logarithmic fall, we would be down to 1 to 2 cases per day in mid end of July.

    Aint gonna happen as restrictions gradually ease obviously


  • #2778
    GM228
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,922 ✭✭✭GM228


    ACitizenErased wrote: »
    Think he meant 139, the growth will still be the same

    Indeed, still rounded at a steady 1%.


  • #2779
    Obvious Desperate Breakfasts
    Closed Accounts Posts: 8,474 ✭✭✭Obvious Desperate Breakfasts


    jams100 wrote: »
    https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-vaccine-may-never-be-found-boris-johnson-says-11986602

    I don't often agree with him but he's right, we can't live in lockdown for an infinite period there needs to be a balance anyone who thinks we can shield everyone until a vaccine is found in possibly 12-18 months time is not looking at the bigger picture imo

    Separately but related. The chances of survival if your cancer is caught in stage 3 or 4 as opposed to 1 or 2 are halved

    https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/0510/1137590-breastcheck-cervicalcheck/

    Your chances of survival at stage 4 are nil except for a few exceptions eg. some testicular cancer (though I think that’s called stage 3, but metastatic anyway) and Hodgkin’s Lymphoma patients. For everyone else, stage 4 is currently a death sentence.


  • #2780
    ACitizenErased
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,749 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    https://twitter.com/higginsdavidw/status/1259899874738417664?s=20


  • #2781
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Jim_Hodge wrote: »
    I hope he's right but he's a computer modelling expert not an epidemiologist and this is a very new and different virus.
    He's also predicted a total of 30,000 cases and 2,500 deaths. We are fairly unlikely to hit that.


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  • #2782
    Eod100
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,151 ✭✭✭✭Eod100


    lbj666 wrote: »
    As another poster said the morons need to be explained their logic in terms they understand "We did the thing to stop it being really bad, it didnt turn out really bad , so why did we do the thing to stop it being really bad?"

    That's it exactly. Hopefully in schools, offices etc, basic things like hand washing and not going to work when sick is reinforced.

    I know in schools, there's awards for kids who don't miss school. Should be encouraging kids not to go to school if sick.

    In some workplaces, there's a presenteeism where people still go into work when sick just to be seen at work. They might not do a whole lot cos they're sick but it's worn as a badge of honour. Risk making colleagues sick so really needs to be discouraged. As Dr. Holohan says it should be viewed as smoking in the workplace.


  • #2783
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    ACitizenErased wrote: »
    https://twitter.com/higginsdavidw/status/1259899874738417664?s=20
    What date are his ICU numbers up to?


  • #2784
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Eod100 wrote: »
    That's it exactly. Hopefully in schools, offices etc, basic things like hand washing and not going to work when sick is reinforced.

    I know in schools, there's awards for kids who don't miss school. Should be encouraging kids not to go to work if sick.

    In some workplaces, there's a presenteeism where people still go into work when sick just to be seen at work. They might not do a whole lot cos they're sick but it's worn as a badge of honour. Risk making colleagues sick so really needs to be discouraged. As Dr. Holohan says it should be viewed as smoking in the workplace.
    It's more likely that a lot of people don't consider a cold being sick, except for man colds!


  • #2785
    GM228
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,922 ✭✭✭GM228


    is_that_so wrote: »
    He's also predicted a total of 30,000 cases and 2,500 deaths. We are fairly unlikely to hit that.

    He was also way off (39%) with the China deaths prediction.


  • #2786
    Stheno
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 51,690 Mod ✭✭✭✭Stheno


    is_that_so wrote: »
    What date are his ICU numbers up to?

    Hard to know presume midnight Saturday?

    12 new hospital admissions and 0 ICU admissions is good though


  • #2787
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Stheno wrote: »
    Hard to know presume midnight Saturday?

    12 new hospital admissions and 0 ICU admissions is good though

    Yeah it is. GM228 has put up numbers in the new stats thread. Seems ICU is now 71.


  • #2788
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    GM228 wrote: »
    He was also way off (39%) with the China deaths prediction.
    Yeah he covered that by saying it was "hard" to predict deaths. I've filed it all under interesting!


  • #2789
    Eod100
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,151 ✭✭✭✭Eod100


    is_that_so wrote: »
    It's more likely that a lot of people don't consider a cold being sick, except for man colds!

    I think that's a part of it too. I think if people stay home with a cold there will inevitably be a lot more people off sick from work but no way around it really!


  • #2790
    Stheno
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 51,690 Mod ✭✭✭✭Stheno


    is_that_so wrote: »
    Yeah it is. GM228 has put up numbers in the new stats thread. Seems ICU is now 71.

    I t hmm ink we now have less ICU cases than we did when they introduced restrictions which appears to be one of Tony's criteria for easing


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  • #2791
    Funsterdelux
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,376 ✭✭✭Funsterdelux


    Eod100 wrote: »
    That's it exactly. Hopefully in schools, offices etc, basic things like hand washing and not going to work when sick is reinforced.

    I know in schools, there's awards for kids who don't miss school. Should be encouraging kids not to go to school if sick.

    In some workplaces, there's a presenteeism where people still go into work when sick just to be seen at work. They might not do a whole lot cos they're sick but it's worn as a badge of honour. Risk making colleagues sick so really needs to be discouraged. As Dr. Holohan says it should be viewed as smoking in the workplace.



    You wouldnt go to work sick


This discussion has been closed.
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