Covid19 Part XVII-24,841 in ROI (1,639 deaths) 4,679 in NI (518 deaths)(28/05)Read OP

Boggles · 11-05-2020 10:34AM

growleaves wrote: »

Yes, a German epidemiologist Knutt Wittkowski said that the lockdowns would have the effect of lengthening the epidemic thereby killing more people. Add to that deaths which have been caused by the stress and isolation of the lockdown (suicides, some strokes and heart attacks) and you have a terrible blunder.

He is not an epidemiologist.

The opinions that have been expressed by Knut Wittkowski, discouraging social distancing in order to hasten the development of herd immunity to the novel coronavirus, do not represent the views of The Rockefeller University, its leadership, or its faculty.

Wittkowski was previously employed by Rockefeller as a biostatistician. He has never held the title of professor at Rockefeller.

Another Kook trying to make himself relevant.

yourdeadwright · 11-05-2020 10:35AM

would I be right in saying the average age of covid deaths in Ireland has been 82 ?
Seems hard to get a correct number lots of different sources are saying different numbers ?

Isn't the normal average age of death here 81 ?

speckle · 11-05-2020 10:38AM

I know people give out about the slowness etc of the government response here and rightly so at times. But we are lucky to live here flaws and all.
Problems in India. Beware contains sadly, people in body bags beside living patients. My heart goes out to their familys and friends.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=BgsN7BI5sQs

Miike · 11-05-2020 10:42AM

kilkenny31 wrote: »

Exactly, which has always been the driving the "herd immunity" scientists way of thinking. They think that lockdown's actually slow the rate at which the natural weakening of the virus occurs as the weaker strains have less chances of spreading.

At the rate SARS-CoV-2 appears to be mutating this is totally unrealistic. It's not mutating very quickly for an RNA virus, at all, it appears. Some literature suggesting it's become more contagious while others absolutely refute that claim. Relying on mutation to sway in our favor isn't a good idea. It could go either way.

crossman47 · 11-05-2020 10:44AM

Interesting article here https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/france-pays-a-high-price-for-ignoring-those-who-predicted-a-pandemic-1.4249817 re French minister being hounded out of office a decade ago because she was accused of wasting money on preparations for H1N1. This shows how two faced media and politicians can be and do you think any of them will accept a share of the blame for lack of preparations this time? We will face the same hindsight merchants - TDs making long speeches at a Dail Committee about everything that could have been done better - TDs who are silent now. Likewise journalists who are just using the press conference each night to get a headline will suddenly become all wise. My faith in Irish journalism has reached an all time low. Dr. Holohan has the patience of Job having to listen to them every night.

growleaves · 11-05-2020 10:51AM

I didn't say he 'held the title of professor at Rockefeller'.

He had an academic career at the University of Tübingen and worked with Klaus Dietz for 15 years before heading up the department of Biostatistics, Epidemiology and Research Design at Rockefeller. It appears he may not be an epidemologist himself, he just worked closely with epidemiologists for 35 years.

Perhaps you can argue against his points using your own vast knowledge instead of irrelevant name-calling.

yourdeadwright · 11-05-2020 10:51AM

crossman47 wrote: »

Interesting article here https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/france-pays-a-high-price-for-ignoring-those-who-predicted-a-pandemic-1.4249817 re French minister being hounded out of office a decade ago because she was accused of wasting money on preparations for H1N1. This shows how two faced media and politicians can be and do you think any of them will accept a share of the blame for lack of preparations this time? We will face the same hindsight merchants - TDs making long speeches at a Dail Committee about everything that could have been done better - TDs who are silent now. Likewise journalists who are just using the press conference each night to get a headline will suddenly become all wise. My faith in Irish journalism has reached an all time low. Dr. Holohan has the patience of Job having to listen to them every night.

Dr Holohan should be delighted with the media, They have help build him into some kind of a new Irish hero ,while thousand seem to forget the balls up he made in the cervix cancer scandal,

shocksy · 11-05-2020 10:55AM

crossman47 wrote: »

Interesting article here https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/france-pays-a-high-price-for-ignoring-those-who-predicted-a-pandemic-1.4249817 re French minister being hounded out of office a decade ago because she was accused of wasting money on preparations for H1N1. This shows how two faced media and politicians can be and do you think any of them will accept a share of the blame for lack of preparations this time? We will face the same hindsight merchants - TDs making long speeches at a Dail Committee about everything that could have been done better - TDs who are silent now. Likewise journalists who are just using the press conference each night to get a headline will suddenly become all wise. My faith in Irish journalism has reached an all time low. Dr. Holohan has the patience of Job having to listen to them every night.

The journalism is extremely poor in this country. They ask non stop stupid questions, never report anything with any sort of integrity the majority of the time and they never ask the tough questions.

Also, on a separate note, I notice the Journal.ie have ads on boards.ie requesting donations to keep up the quality of their news bla bla bla. That's a joke in itself. Their journalism is pathetic at best. Times must be bad over there if they're resorting to ads to request donations haha.

crossman47 · 11-05-2020 10:56AM

yourdeadwright wrote: »

Dr Holohan should be delighted with the media, They have help build him into some kind of a new Irish hero ,while thousand seem to forget the balls up he made in the cervix cancer scandal,

The only thing for which he might be blamed in that case was the offer of a new test to everyone and I think it is well accepted now that was a solo run by Harris. The misreading of slides (and I am unconvinced they could have been avoided in any screening situation) took place AFAIK in US labs.

yourdeadwright · 11-05-2020 10:59AM

crossman47 wrote: »

The only thing for which he might be blamed in that case was the offer of a new test to everyone and I think it is well accepted now that was a solo run by Harris. The misreading of slides (and I am unconvinced they could have been avoided in any screening situation) took place AFAIK in US labs.

So just forget the below statement he made to Harris, The man clearly wanted to keep the problems buried , but suddenly the gob****es of this country believe every word that comes out of his mouth ,

" I strongly advise that you do not commit to a review of CervicalCheck "

Its amazing what being a good speaker can do for you

kilkenny31 · 11-05-2020 11:09AM

Miike wrote: »

At the rate SARS-CoV-2 appears to be mutating this is totally unrealistic. It's not mutating very quickly for an RNA virus, at all, it appears. Some literature suggesting it's become more contagious while others absolutely refute that claim. Relying on mutation to sway in our favor isn't a good idea. It could go either way.

There are suggestions that a weaker strain is already in circulation.

Stheno · 11-05-2020 11:10AM

yourdeadwright wrote: »

would I be right in saying the average age of covid deaths in Ireland has been 82 ?
Seems hard to get a correct number lots of different sources are saying different numbers ?

Isn't the normal average age of death here 81 ?

Median age of deaths is 82
Mean (what we commonly refer to as the average) is 80 iirc

s1ippy · 11-05-2020 11:28AM

Longing wrote: »

China's Wuhan reports first coronavirus cluster since lifting of lockdown

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0511/1137617-covid19-coronavirus-china/

First I heard that they're not counting or recording asymptomatic positives? What the hell good is that you'd wonder.

silverharp wrote: »

there is a suggestion that a super spreader is just someone who talks too much

I know a one Mary who goes up close to your face to talk to you. Usually has bad breath and smeared makeup and stuff in her teeth. Even when I asked nicely that she be mindful of the invisible hulahoop for the sake of the pandemic, she would not back away from me.

The week the lockdown came in I was saying that if she caught it she'd be a super-spreader, typhoid Mary. Anyway she has it now anyway so for the sake of society I'm relieved she's not out and about the place getting inappropriately close and making people smell her breath.

yourdeadwright wrote: »

Dr Holohan should be delighted with the media, They have help build him into some kind of a new Irish hero ,while thousand seem to forget the balls up he made in the cervix cancer scandal,

Spineless brown-nosers the lot of them. I can't understand why they're not ripped to shreds in pursuit of accountability and clear answers every night.

Wibbs · 11-05-2020 11:40AM

s1ippy wrote: »

Spineless brown-nosers the lot of them. I can't understand why they're not ripped to shreds in pursuit of accountability and clear answers every night.

Because political journalism in this country is fatally flawed. I've had some insight into it over the years(long story) and it's too tight knit between the journalists and the politicians(and the PR companies). If a journo asks the wrong question they may as well change careers, because their access will be revoked in short order. The senior journalists have come up through that system so know the score and don't want to lose their positions. When a journalist appears to ask the wrong question 9 times outa 10 it's a planted question by the politician or their handlers and the politician will have a coached answer ready.

This is no conspiracy theory stuff and it doesn't require any, it's simply because at the top end of politics and journalism the number of people involved is tiny and they all know each other for years.

Hector Savage · 11-05-2020 11:46AM

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-52613138

More clusters in Wuhan, this will never be over till there's a vaccine, I am curious to know the chain of transmission in these cases tho ...

Mike3287 · 11-05-2020 11:49AM

yourdeadwright wrote: »

Dr Holohan should be delighted with the media, They have help build him into some kind of a new Irish hero ,while thousand seem to forget the balls up he made in the cervix cancer scandal,

Think this is the time Leo is supposed to step back in

Atlantic Dawn · 11-05-2020 11:49AM

I see an Aer Lingus flight just left Dublin for Beijing, likely PPE trip. They should load it with Irish goods to flog on the Chinese side.

is_that_so · 11-05-2020 11:57AM

Hector Savage wrote: »

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-52613138

More clusters in Wuhan, this will never be over till there's a vaccine, I am curious to know the chain of transmission in these cases tho ...

I think it's really a reminder of what we are constantly being told , that it is very transmissable.

Drumpot · 11-05-2020 11:57AM

Has anybody read or heard of any credible, non hyperbolic/political and relatively logical sounding reason why certain countries have done better then others?

I believe some of the factors are

- luck
- demographics
- geographical position
- speed of response
- possible different recording of deaths or not much testing

Places like Sweden and New Zealand have been held up by some as the perfect example of how to manage the virus. To be honest I think luck and some already existing conditions helped an awful lot that would make it harder for some countries to follow their lead.

But I haven’t seen anything really try to explain the disparity of countries where you can even go like for like (eg Portugal v spain).

is_that_so · 11-05-2020 12:01PM

Drumpot wrote: »

Has anybody read or heard of any credible, non hyperbolic/political and relatively logical sounding reason why certain countries have done better then others?

I believe some of the factors are

- luck
- demographics
- geographical position
- speed of response
- possible different recording of deaths or not much testing

Places like Sweden and New Zealand have been held up by some as the perfect example of how to manage the virus. To be honest I think luck and some already existing conditions helped an awful lot that would make it harder for some countries to follow their lead.

But I haven’t seen anything really try to explain the disparity of countries where you can even go like for like (eg Portugal v spain).

The commonest one seems to be speed of response, luck , bad luck certainly played a big part in Italy's case. Other things IMO are harder to measure, as you say no real like for like to use.
There is a big data gathering exercise underway to analyse who did what, when and what might be the most effective overall approach.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01248-1

Christy42 · 11-05-2020 12:02PM

It will be interesting to see numbers develop this week.

61,000 new cases for the EU and 179,000 for the US for the week are both down on previous numbers. Hopefully they both keep dropping. EU active cases has been slowly dropping from a peak of 500k to about 413k. The US is still unfortunately rising and has hit a little over 1m active cases. Obviously not the most accurate statistic but still nice to see the EU ones drop.

Mike3287 · 11-05-2020 12:02PM

Drumpot wrote: »

Has anybody read or heard of any credible, non hyperbolic/political and relatively logical sounding reason why certain countries have done better then others?

I believe some of the factors are

- luck
- demographics
- geographical position
- speed of response
- possible different recording of deaths or not much testing

Places like Sweden and New Zealand have been held up by some as the perfect example of how to manage the virus. To be honest I think luck and some already existing conditions helped an awful lot that would make it harder for some countries to follow their lead.

But I haven’t seen anything really try to explain the disparity of countries where you can even go like for like (eg Portugal v spain).

Madagascar worth looking at

They are laughing at the virus, 0 deaths, 191 cases.

Even have a cure for sale

https://www.aa.com.tr/en/africa/south-africa-to-examine-madagascar-s-covid-19-drug/1831219

https://www.buzz.ie/news/madagascar-sells-plant-based-cure-covid-19-368030

They did vaccinate 7.2 million citizens with the mmr vaccine last year, could be that too

Rubella and coronavirus are supposedly quite similar

https://www.sciencetimes.com/articles/25417/20200422/29-percent-similarity-between-coronavirus-rubella-virus-help-mmr-vaccine.htm

https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/05/11/2030880/0/en/Madagascar-Zero-COVID-19-Deaths-After-MMR-Vaccine-Given-to-26-of-Population-in-2019-According-to-World-Organization.html

Inquitus · 11-05-2020 12:06PM

Christy42 wrote: »

It will be interesting to see numbers develop this week.

61,000 new cases for the EU and 179,000 for the US for the week are both down on previous numbers. Hopefully they both keep dropping. EU active cases has been slowly dropping from a peak of 500k to about 413k. The US is still unfortunately rising and has hit a little over 1m active cases. Obviously not the most accurate statistic but still nice to see the EU ones drop.

The US seems to have chosen to accept 2-3k deaths a day for the near to medium term, as a fair price to pay for opening up the economy again.

Drumpot · 11-05-2020 12:08PM

is_that_so wrote: »

The commonest one seems to speed of response, luck , bad luck certainly played a big part in Italy's case. Other things IMO are harder to measure, as you say no real like for like to use.
There is a big data gathering exercise underway to analyse who did what, when and what might be the most effective overall approach.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01248-1

Thanks, will have a look.

I forgot to add “population compliance” And culture which could play a huge role. Simple things like hugging , kissing and engaging in close quarters Craic could make massive differences. This is probably one of the harder ones to rectify because a lot of people do not like being told to change their behaviour.

Edit: I don’t understand why everybody isn’t being encouraged to take VIT D supplements or make sure you have the right amount of it in your body. It’s clearly a factor in mortality for those who get seriously ill with COVID and an easy thing to rectify.

Pulsating Star · 11-05-2020 12:14PM

Drumpot wrote: »

But I haven’t seen anything really try to explain the disparity of countries where you can even go like for like (eg Portugal v spain).

As far as I can recall from the discussion at the time Portugal has whatever possible residual benefit the BCG vaccine conferred on a population over Spain.
It just struck me at the time as the one doing better was landlocked by the other. The part of Germany which was formally East Germany benefited similiarly iirc.
The benefit may be small but both are like for like.

is_that_so · 11-05-2020 12:15PM

Drumpot wrote: »

Edit: I don’t understand why everybody isn’t being encouraged to take VIT D supplements or make sure you have the right amount of it in your body. It’s clearly a factor in mortality for those who get seriously ill with COVID and an easy thing to rectify.

Any time the question is asked, they do encourage it in general. However, as there is currently "no evidence" in relation to COVID-19 they won't be pushing it any more than that.

is_that_so · 11-05-2020 12:16PM

Pulsating Star wrote: »

As far as I can recall from the discussion at the time Portugal has whatever possible residual benefit the BCG vaccine conferred on a population over Spain.
It just struck me at the time as the one doing better was landlocked by the other. The part of Germany which was formally East Germany benefited similiarly iirc.
The benefit may be small but both are like for like.

Portugal also shut down their border with Spain very quickly.

Mike3287 · 11-05-2020 12:24PM

Inquitus wrote: »

The US seems to have chosen to accept 2-3k deaths a day for the near to medium term, as a fair price to pay for opening up the economy again.

It's scary alright

It's a big country, but still that's like 45 people a day dieing here, it's alot.

Even if that keeps up for a year straight

1,000,000 deaths a year out of 330,000,000 is 0.33% death rate, 99.66% survival rate with Covid19 without vaccine

If it came to a vote people I would imagine people would take there chances with those odds, US is like a third world country, they've no choice.

Funsterdelux · 11-05-2020 12:34PM

Wibbs wrote: »

Because political journalism in this country is fatally flawed. I've had some insight into it over the years(long story) and it's too tight knit between the journalists and the politicians(and the PR companies). If a journo asks the wrong question they may as well change careers, because their access will be revoked in short order. The senior journalists have come up through that system so know the score and don't want to lose their positions. When a journalist appears to ask the wrong question 9 times outa 10 it's a planted question by the politician or their handlers and the politician will have a coached answer ready.

This is no conspiracy theory stuff and it doesn't require any, it's simply because at the top end of politics and journalism the number of people involved is tiny and they all know each other for years.

It doesnt help when politicians and "journalists" are siblings too.

ShamNNspace · 11-05-2020 12:39PM

Funsterdelux wrote: »

It doesnt help when politicians and "journalists" are siblings too.

Or spouses or partners

Covid19 Part XVII-24,841 in ROI (1,639 deaths) 4,679 in NI (518 deaths)(28/05)Read OP

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