Covid19 Part XVII-24,841 in ROI (1,639 deaths) 4,679 in NI (518 deaths)(28/05)Read OP

I've been wondering about the German restrictions going on/off depending on cases.

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0510/1137562-germany-coronavirus/

The Robert Koch Institute for public health said Germany's closely watched reproduction rate (the R number) had climbed to 1.1, meaning 10 people with Covid-19 infect on average 11 others.

They said the R0 was 0.65 on Wednesday and 0.8 on Friday. Wonder how they are calculating the changes almost "live" - it sounds very unusual to me.

Polar101 wrote: »

I've been wondering about the German restrictions going on/off depending on cases.

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0510/1137562-germany-coronavirus/

The Robert Koch Institute for public health said Germany's closely watched reproduction rate (the R number) had climbed to 1.1, meaning 10 people with Covid-19 infect on average 11 others.

They said the R0 was 0.65 on Wednesday and 0.8 on Friday. Wonder how they are calculating the changes almost "live" - it sounds very unusual to me.

https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Situationsberichte/2020-05-10-en.pdf?__blob=publicationFile

Page 6.

Detailed methodology here: https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/Infekt/EpidBull/Archiv/2020/Ausgaben/17_20.pdf?__blob=publicationFile but it's in german.

This is a loosely translated copy of the detailed methodology https://easyupload.io/p2ipmp

fritzelly wrote: »

Saying greater than 1 there

That has been reported in the media since yesterday that the R0 in Nowcasting is increasing. Was discussed in this thread I think

Added a link in the OP to a translated copy of the German report on the Nowcasting methodology.

Wolf359f wrote: »

NY is not the epicenter of the outbreak in the US anymore.
I understand cases are dropping, the point I'm making is the deaths are declining faster than new cases, which based on other countries, Italy, Spain, Germany etc... Seems different.
For each 20 new cases in the US, 1 will die (based on their figures so far)
So 20000 new cases today is 1000 deaths down the line.... And so on. Deaths follow new cases (for the most part)

Better treatment? I think the use of remdesivir is becoming widespread in the US now that its been approved

kyote00 wrote: »

I thought Cholera was baterial so its action, treatment and transmission inside and outside the body are very different

Cholera is a bacterial infection and it's not related to SARS-CoV-2 at all. The author just does a wonderful job at explaining some aspects of an epidemic Sorry, perhaps I should have been clearer in my post.

86 cases now related to Seoul nightclub possible super spreader event.

https://mobile.twitter.com/BBCLBicker/status/1259719825028341761?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

owlbethere wrote: »

On the topic of the virus dying out:

I would love for the virus to die out and we can all go back to busy villages, towns and cities and go out and have a great time this summer.

I really can't see the virus dying out though because I think it's always going to have a host. The virus has a sweet spot of being asymptomatic and infectious in some and also being infectious before symptoms appear.

If we had an appetite during the early stages to lockdown severely maybe then the virus would run out from hosts but that appetite was never there from governments and some people.

I think this may be the exact reason of why the virus will die out. It infects people without them realising. That coupled with the fact that its now starting to appear that it has been around longer than we realise would suggest that many more people may have been infected than we realise. That has been Michael Levvitt's theory. He accurately predicted where China's numbers would level out. He suggests it will be gone from Ireland in 2 weeks allowing for faster easing of restrictions. He also suggests that Sweden will top out at 4000-5000 deaths which will show that the virus naturally flattens and doesn't continue to grow exponentially of left unchecked and will also show some form of herd immunity has happened in sweden. He also suggest that 30% or above may be enough for some form of herd immunity.

Mike3287 wrote: »

Interesting

Virus has weakened or just better treatments?

I'd say weakened. It apparently is natural for a vírus to weaken as it has better chance of infecting more people that way. If its to severe and kills its host it lessens its ability to jump to other hosts. I'd imagine this may be around for a while but it may become another form of the common cold.

kilkenny31 wrote: »

I'd say weakened. It apparently is natural for a vírus to weaken as it has better chance of infecting more people that way. If its to severe and kills its host it lessens its ability to jump to other hosts. I'd imagine this may be around for a while but it may become another form of the common cold.

We can only hope. Given the time this is contagious without symptoms, I wonder how likely it is. Ebola died out because as soon as you became infectious you'd show symptoms so wouldn't be mixing around in public, or less likely to be.

At the same time though, most previous pandemic 'waves' last a few months at most, even if the pandemic itself can span years. I have no idea how this happens, or why viruses like influenza are seasonal and don't just keep going.

Mike3287 wrote: »

Interesting

Virus has weakened or just better treatments?

More than likely its infecting the less vulnerable in the population

EDit wrote: »

Ebola hasn’t died out. Maybe you’re thinking of SARS?

Sorry, yes.

nc6000 wrote: »

Where are you seeing that reported?

Coronavirus appears to be weakening, says Italian scientist

Professor Giuseppe Remuzzi, Director of the Mario Negri Institute for Pharmacological Research in Milan believes that the coronavirus has become weaker in recent weeks or at the least the situation is not as serious as it was a month ago.

"The patients we are seeing now are completely different to the ones we saw three to four weeks ago, less are being admitted to intensive care or need to remain in hospital," Remuzzi said today. "Before, around 80 people would arrive at Accident and Emergency - all with serious breathing difficulties; now it is around 10 and out of them, eight are well enough to be sent home. We don't know if the virus has changed or the viral load in each patient is less".

https://en.as.com/en/2020/05/09/other_sports/1589002134_273677.amp.html

kilkenny31 wrote: »

Exactly, which has always been the driving the "herd immunity" scientists way of thinking. They think that lockdown's actually slow the rate at which the natural weakening of the virus occurs as the weaker strains have less chances of spreading.

Yes, a German epidemiologist Knutt Wittkowski said that the lockdowns would have the effect of lengthening the epidemic thereby killing more people. Add to that deaths which have been caused by the stress and isolation of the lockdown (suicides, some strokes and heart attacks) and you have a terrible blunder.