Covid19 Part XVII-24,841 in ROI (1,639 deaths) 4,679 in NI (518 deaths)(28/05)Read OP

wakka12 · 10-05-2020 07:13PM

What Username Guidelines wrote: »

One point 1 - I know previous pandemics were influenzas, but still novel strains, and they seem to wane within months, or at least each peak lasts months. Maybe it’s a seasonal factor, maybe it doesn’t happen with coronavirus strains.

This lad slid the death count in the uk back a few months and compared it to previous flu seasons (I know, not a flu) but interesting nonetheless.

https://twitter.com/alistairhaimes/status/1258429564113608704?s=21

Although he does seem to have a very strong anti-lockdown agenda judging by other tweets.

However, he’s mapped deaths by date of occurrence as opposed to announcement and those also seem to follow a classic epidemiological curve too.

https://twitter.com/alistairhaimes/status/1259518217556557826?s=21

This could all be down to lockdowns, some seem to believe that peak infections in Spain/Italy/france etc all happened days before lockdowns due to people voluntarily social distancing and it may be enough without the bluntness of a blanket lockdown.

Tbh I don’t know what to believe in terms of models, predictions, etc. I’m just very confused why everyone is treating this like it will be around forever, or until a vaccine, when previous pandemics have come in waves that last maybe 3-4 months, and eventually fade or become less deadly.

This is a terrible misrepresenatation, he has removed thousands of excess deaths from March and April which are thought to be caused by coronavirus , he removed them as they havnt been confirmed.But as we know, there many thousands of deaths in nursing homes and at homes that have not been counted in England yet. And then compared it to total all cause excess mortality of those two other years. Yes he has a strong anti lockown agenda as he is a liar

And regardless of the fact it is just outdated and wrong now. Even the confirmed covid cases are now far higher than the number of deaths in 1999 or 2000 that he has displayed there

mosii · 10-05-2020 07:16PM

Just thinking, if i have the virus,and i go out and about,a mask will reduce the chance of infecting other people,thats only common sense.
I i have it ,it dosnt matter if i touch the mask or not, i have the virus already.I think every one should be wearing a mask,this will reduce transmission,guaranteed, imo.They wore masks in Ireland during the Spanish Flu,surely we can start doing it hear soon.

stephenjmcd · 10-05-2020 07:16PM

https://twitter.com/KevDoyle_Indo/status/1259547023470219264?s=19

owlbethere · 10-05-2020 07:17PM

Stheno wrote: »

Boris Johnson is allegedly going to recommend face masks/coverings be worn on public transport, in shops and office as part of his announcement tonight

I imagine we'll get the same this week

I watched his speech. He didn't recommend face coverings. That means our Leo will follow the same path.

wakka12 · 10-05-2020 07:18PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

He predicted China's numbers almost exactly. Wouldn't exactly discredit him.

The figure published by China before it increased it's death randomly by 50% or after?

Stheno · 10-05-2020 07:19PM

owlbethere wrote: »

I watched his speech. He didn't recommend face coverings. That means our Leo will follow the same path.

No and nor did he say when quarantine will come in

Scotland have now advised people to wear masks in shops

10-05-2020 07:21PM

Miike wrote: »

This was posted by someone else in earlier in this thread:

https://unherd.com/thepost/nobel-prize-winning-scientist-the-covid-19-epidemic-was-never-exponential/

Note the language he uses when talking about loss of older people etc. Thankfully it will only takes 2 weeks to entirely discredit him.

Why is it that when someone is going against the grain and is wrong, it's about discrediting them, but when the majority turns out to be wrong, the majority aren't. Does it really have to be a discrediting? If he is miraculously right, will you make it your business to discredit everyone who said it would last longer..

If he's won a Nobel Prize, then let him give his opinion.

ZX7R · 10-05-2020 07:21PM

Wibbs wrote: »

What medical reason would preclude someone from wearing a surgical mask, or a DIY cloth one? A missing ear maybe, but otherwise I can't think of one. We're not talking PP3 respirators here.

You need to study up before you make assumptions.
People diagnosed with sensory and or intellectual disability's and or diagnosed under the mental health act,can be exempt from from the wearing of masks or facial coverings , for the purpose of the person needing , exercise, for the movement of said person's and for the reason of essential travel in or out of the country.
A written letter or note from a case doctor or family GP that is aware of the case history can issue a letter or note of pardon.
I received this information from the department of foreign affairs and trade.
I've a member of my family who falls under the above diagnosis.
Other medical reasons are also included.
Just to point out other EU member countries have similar exemptions issued and even exempt children under certain ages from wearing them even with mandatory wearing of masks mouth coverings.

ACitizenErased · 10-05-2020 07:23PM

wakka12 wrote: »

The figure published by China before it increased it's death randomly by 50% or after?

He predicted 80000 cases and 3250 deaths in China. The figure is ~ 82000 cases and 4500 deaths.

RugbyLad11 · 10-05-2020 07:24PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

https://twitter.com/KevDoyle_Indo/status/1259547023470219264?s=19

The UK government have said that people travelling from the Republic of Ireland will not be subject to the 14 isolation people from all other countries will be subject to so I can see a hell of a lot Irish people going over to the UK for the weekend if their pubs are open while ours are closed.

jams100 · 10-05-2020 07:24PM

Why are we doing everything so slowly?
Britian's plan sounds much more realistic. We are being treated like children. Example why can't a family go for a drive? Why can't an individual go and play a round of golf
What is our strategy? Eliminate the virus? Are we going to be in lockdown indefinitely?
Everytime Leo or Simon speak it feels quite belittling, we can be trusted to go to a garden center and socially distance, we should be allowed back to work if its possible to socially distance eg Construction.
We have ample room in our ICU's now...it makes no sense to get the ICU capacity to near 0 we should be trying to control the spread of the virus not eliminate it because we need to be honest. It is not going to be eliminated now and a vaccine might be 18 months away, in fact its a possibility, yes unlikely, that we might never get a vaccine.
It's time to speed up the reopening with common sense at the forefront, we aren't stupid we're capable of making sensible decisions ourselves. Time for our politicians to grow a pair of balls imo

ACitizenErased · 10-05-2020 07:25PM

jams100 wrote: »

Why are we doing everything so slowly?
Britian's plan sounds much more realistic. We are being treated like children. Example why can't a family go for a drive? Why can't an individual go and play a round of golf
What is our strategy? Eliminate the virus? Are we going to be in lockdown indefinitely?
Everytime Leo or Simon speak it feels quite belittling, we can be trusted to go to a garden center and socially distance, we should be allowed back to work if its possible to socially distance eg Construction.
We have ample room in our ICU's now...it makes no sense to get the ICU capacity to near 0 we should be trying to control the spread of the virus not eliminate it because we need to be honest. It is not going to be eliminated now and a vaccine might be 18 months away, in fact its a possibility, yes unlikely, that we might never get a vaccine.
It's time to speed up the reopening with common sense at the forefront, we aren't stupid we're capable of making sensible decisions ourselves. Time for our politicians to grow a pair of balls imo

You're comparing us to a country who have made an absolute balls of the situation. Don't even.

GM228 · 10-05-2020 07:25PM

GM228 wrote: »

Interesting to note that Northern Ireland have begun denotification deaths where the person does not die within 28 days of a positive lab confirmed death (the first such denotification was made today), I wonder how many 28+ day deaths have not been recorded in the first place, there is currently no definitive time frame on death reporting.

Didn't realise until today that 10 days ago the NI Statistics and Research Agency and NI Health announced that Northern Ireland are reporting deaths as COVID-19 deaths for people who have tested positive even if COVID-19 was not the actual cause of death, added to the above comment I made yesterday it does really add to the fact UK death figures are highly skewed.

Miike · 10-05-2020 07:26PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Why is it that when someone is going against the grain and is wrong, it's about discrediting them, but when the majority turns out to be wrong, the majority aren't. Does it really have to be a discrediting? If he is miraculously right, will you make it your business to discredit everyone who said it would last longer..

If he's won a Nobel Prize, then let him give his opinion.

It's not him 'going against the grain' I actually have an issue with. I'm perfectly open to hearing other takes on things. My issue with him is how speaks of the people who've passed or are at risk. I can't fathom how people can disconnect with humanity to an extent where viewing the death of an older person its just "ah sure, they were nearly expired anyway". Which is just starting to become some kind of normal in many corners. It's mind blowing to me. That's my issue

ACitizenErased · 10-05-2020 07:26PM

Miike wrote: »

It's not him 'going against the grain' I actually have an issue with. I'm perfectly open to hearing other takes on things. My issue with him is how speaks of the people who've passed or are at risk. I can't fathom how people can disconnect with humanity to an extent where viewing the death of an older person its just "ah sure, they were nearly expired anyway".

He literally says that lockdown measures should be put in place to protect old people?

10-05-2020 07:27PM

Miike wrote: »

It's not him 'going against the grain' I actually have an issue with. I'm perfectly open to hearing other takes on things. My issue with him is how speaks of the people who've passed or are at risk. I can't fathom how people can disconnect with humanity to an extent where viewing the death of an older person its just "ah sure, they were nearly expired anyway". Which is just starting to become some kind of normal in many corners. It's mind blowing to me. That's my issue

Can someone paste the full article? I'm paywalled.

keynes · 10-05-2020 07:28PM

RugbyLad11 wrote: »

The UK government have said that people travelling from the Republic of Ireland will not be subject to the 14 isolation people from all other countries will be subject to so I can see a hell of a lot Irish people going over to the UK for the weekend if their pubs are open while ours are closed.

The policy basically ensures their problems will seamlessly flow across to Ireland

GM228 · 10-05-2020 07:29PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

He predicted 80000 cases and 3250 deaths in China. The figure is ~ 82000 cases and 4500 deaths.

2% off on the cases, but 39% off on the deaths, not exactly "almost exactly" predicted in the case of deaths?

What Username Guidelines · 10-05-2020 07:30PM

wakka12 wrote: »

This is a terrible misrepresenatation, he has removed thousands of excess deaths from March and April which are thought to be caused by coronavirus , he removed them as they havnt been confirmed.But as we know, there many thousands of deaths in nursing homes and at homes that have not been counted in England yet. And then compared it to total all cause excess mortality of those two other years. Yes he has a strong anti lockown agenda as he is a liar

And regardless of the fact it is just outdated and wrong now. Even the confirmed covid cases are now far higher than the number of deaths in 1999 or 2000 that he has displayed there

Gah, thought it was too good to be true.

ACitizenErased · 10-05-2020 07:30PM

GM228 wrote: »

2% off on the cases, but 39% off on the deaths, not exactly almost exactly right.

His whole point is regards to transmission/cases. Not sure why it matters how right he is about deaths?

What Username Guidelines · 10-05-2020 07:30PM

wakka12 wrote: »

This is a terrible misrepresenatation, he has removed thousands of excess deaths from March and April which are thought to be caused by coronavirus , he removed them as they havnt been confirmed.But as we know, there many thousands of deaths in nursing homes and at homes that have not been counted in England yet. And then compared it to total all cause excess mortality of those two other years. Yes he has a strong anti lockown agenda as he is a liar

And regardless of the fact it is just outdated and wrong now. Even the confirmed covid cases are now far higher than the number of deaths in 1999 or 2000 that he has displayed there

Gah, thought it was too good to be true.

keynes · 10-05-2020 07:31PM

jams100 wrote: »

It's time to speed up the reopening with common sense at the forefront, we aren't stupid we're capable of making sensible decisions ourselves. Time for our politicians to grow a pair of balls imo

With Boris now opening up quicker, you can be sure they will sheepishly "expedite" our opening. This is the kind of "leadership" we have

Miike · 10-05-2020 07:31PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

He literally says that lockdown measures should be put in place to protect old people?

I think this is another foul-up on the part of the baby boomers. I am a real baby boomer — I was born in 1947, I am almost 73 years old — but I think we’ve really screwed up. We’ve caused pollution, we’ve allowed the world’s population to increase threefold in my lifetime, we’ve caused the problems of global warming and now we’ve left your generation with a real mess in order to save a relatively small number of very old people.

I have issues with the tone of the statement and the underlying sentiment.

stephenjmcd · 10-05-2020 07:31PM

RugbyLad11 wrote: »

The UK government have said that people travelling from the Republic of Ireland will not be subject to the 14 isolation people from all other countries will be subject to so I can see a hell of a lot Irish people going over to the UK for the weekend if their pubs are open while ours are closed.

Return of the good friday booze cruise to holyhead

ACitizenErased · 10-05-2020 07:32PM

Miike wrote: »

I have issues with the tone of the statement and the underlying sentiment.

You should take it up with him if you're so concerned with how he speaks.

iamwhoiam · 10-05-2020 07:32PM

Does anyone get the logic of the 5k or 20k rule . What is the difference if I drive 20k or 50k to see family and have 4 people 2 metres apart in the garden ? How unfair if my family happen to be 35 kms from me and I cannot see them when my sister who lives closer to them can ?

New Home · 10-05-2020 07:32PM

Miike wrote: »

It's not him 'going against the grain' I actually have an issue with. I'm perfectly open to hearing other takes on things. My issue with him is how speaks of the people who've passed or are at risk. I can't fathom how people can disconnect with humanity to an extent where viewing the death of an older person its just "ah sure, they were nearly expired anyway". Which is just starting to become some kind of normal in many corners. It's mind blowing to me. That's my issue

I remember going to visit a workhouse many years ago. The tour guide told us that there used to be "dead collectors" (so to speak) who used to go around the various floors to collect the bodies of those who had died, then they would fling them out of the window onto a pile of other bodies below - easier than hoisting them all down the stairs one by one. Sometimes they would also collect people who weren't quite dead yet, but they would also be subjected to the same treatment, the reason being, "Ah well, if they aren't dead now they certainly will be by the time they reach the ground".
Same thing. Makes my blood boil.

podgeandrodge · 10-05-2020 07:32PM

Miike wrote: »

It's not him 'going against the grain' I actually have an issue with. I'm perfectly open to hearing other takes on things. My issue with him is how speaks of the people who've passed or are at risk. I can't fathom how people can disconnect with humanity to an extent where viewing the death of an older person its just "ah sure, they were nearly expired anyway". Which is just starting to become some kind of normal in many corners. It's mind blowing to me. That's my issue

Ahh yes, I recall this. He's the 73 yr old! He obviously has that attitude we used to see in the movies..."I've lived my life, go live yours" !!

Note to the perpetually outraged - I am not implying that 73 year olds have reached that stage or anywhere near it!

Deleted User wrote: »

Can someone paste the full article? I'm paywalled.

https://unherd.com/thepost/nobel-prize-winning-scientist-the-covid-19-epidemic-was-never-exponential/

podgeandrodge · 10-05-2020 07:33PM

RugbyLad11 wrote: »

The UK government have said that people travelling from the Republic of Ireland will not be subject to the 14 isolation people from all other countries will be subject to so I can see a hell of a lot Irish people going over to the UK for the weekend if their pubs are open while ours are closed.

This is great news. At least now I can find a use for that Aer Lingus voucher soon!

ChikiChiki · 10-05-2020 07:34PM

keynes wrote: »

With Boris now opening up quicker, you can be sure they will sheepishly "expedite" our opening. This is the kind of "leadership" we have

"The kind of leadership we have" as opposed to the bungling Tories who have blood on their hands by their bungling incompetent managing of the crisis.

Ffs I have read it all.

Covid19 Part XVII-24,841 in ROI (1,639 deaths) 4,679 in NI (518 deaths)(28/05)Read OP

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