Relaxation of Restrictions, Part III - **Read OP for Mod Warnings**

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Good thing they have ICU and hospital beds.

So do we. But we dont have courage to face the music. yet. Gotta wait until exchequer runs out of €€€

I read this thread up until this page and I must say, I appreciate the discussion (genuinely).

I'm anti-lockdown but I don't feel we're ready to lift it, because we're woefully underprepared when it comes to testing, precautions, etc.

Methinks the 18th of May being the date is that they're desperately trying to get close to the amount of tests processed they said they'd deliver.

titan18 wrote: »

Didn't know the virus will stop spreading once 15% get it

It hasnt. But its a bit difficult to test over 15% of population. Of any country or region.

These are in the works my friend, watch out for 0.03%.

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/04/21/839594202/germany-is-conducting-nationwide-covid-19-antibody-testing?t=1589066330094

Watch out. The results of Germany's antibodies tests will show true mortality of the deadly pandemic Covid19.

PS it will not be 6%. It will not even be 0.6%......

ShineOn7 wrote: »

From what I saw today, the RO will be double what it is today in two weeks time

Bit of sunshine + a nation of alcoholics + the Irish hate being told what to do = a recipe for another spike

Some people and families are already at Phase Four of this, let alone Phase One!


We're a fúcking disaster

That sounds really bad.
What exactly did you see?

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

A police state??

No. Stop it. It's tiresome. Look up the definition of a police state. It's a million miles away from where we are.

https://www.corkbeo.ie/culture/family-kids/well-known-cork-musician-tells-18206713

Here's an account from an Irishman in Sweden.

Penfailed wrote: »

https://www.corkbeo.ie/culture/family-kids/well-known-cork-musician-tells-18206713

Here's an account from an Irishman in Sweden.

I am afraid the thread is about Ireland lifting restrictions. Not about Irish men abroad.

Whats your opinion of 5 months lockdown for pubs, shopping centres, gyms? Reasonable or a bit too much?

Could we follow other EU countries that seem to be opening 2 - 3 times quicker than our country?

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

I've educated myself on this topic for months as you can appreciate, I am not exactly at the pub.

Country wide mortality = 0.03%. With or without lockdown as Ireland & Sweden have shown.

Antibodies test morality rate of 0.24%(Germany study) - 0.8%. (0.8% is in New York, where a lot of people are obese unfortunately)

Do I need further education? Am I a million miles off with regards to mortality of this pandemic disease? Would you like links to antibodies testing?

I am not diminishing the importance or severity of this disease for fun btw, just showing that creating 28% state wide unemployment for something that has less than 0.8% mortality is not logical or correct.

I'd like to see the links if you can supply them.

You are still wrong about the mortality rate BTW.

NewRed2 wrote: »

I'll hold my hands up here, I don't know much about Sweden or other nations handling of all this.
I'm aware that Sweden didn't do the lockdown the way we did, but aside from that I don't have much knowledge the way the rest of yee talk about figures.

What I do know is that while people argue the toss about a few numbers there are real people ****ting themselves, there are self-employed people who only have one way of supporting themselves, family businesses that could go to the wall here and leave us on the dole and theres no way back for us after that.
So this **** is real for us, this is the difference between being able to support our kids or not. It's fine to say lives are at stake for our 80 year olds but I have two 4 year olds.
It looks likely that I'll lose my business over this. So who can make that up to them? Who supports them?
All because we're protecting the elderly. And what about the kids mental health? I had to pick my daughter up off the pavement the other day because she was hoping she could play with the kids next door. That's her only social outlet now but even then its awkward coz technically shes not allowed play with them.
This is a mess now and we stuck with the rules for a wee while but this lockdown crap has gone on too long and Taoiseach Holohan is miles out of touch with the rest of us. Nobody can live like this, it's a fookin virus, get on with it, live with it, adjust and adapt. But we've surrendered.

You are correct on all the points you raise. I hope FG or FF or someone from the government buildings brings your post to the attention of our non elected officials.

It truly is baffling how we made so many mistakes so quickly. But its never too late to rectify things.

And I can guarantee you, Swedish model will be applauded for years and decades to come. You have WHO coming out and saying "maybe Swedish model is the best in the long run" for a reason.

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

I appreciate your opinion.

Would you clarify whether we could or we should? Its a big difference

Why did you ask if we could rather than if we should? ...if it's that big a difference?

Hey Ginger, what prompted you to join in May 2020?

I suppose it was looking at the erudition of contributors before you breezed in. lol.

Well you seem to be enjoying yourself, so whatever.

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

When our young generation ask what caused the 2020 recession? The answer will be "medical advice".

There was a "deadly pandemic" with 0.1% mortality rate, rampant. Government couldnt protect nursing homes or elderly and decided to "announce" a nationwide lockdown for 5 months.

That's it. How many died? less than 5,000. 0.1% of 5 million population.

Isnt flu mortality 0.1%? yes it is. yes it is. But covid19 is much more serious than flu because of (insert whatever you want not to feel bad about getting back to 2009 economic "levels")

Much of that has no basis in reality.

I can just as easily claim that when our young generation ask what caused the 2020 recession? The answer will be "Ginger n Lemon"

And no there is no "nationwide lockdown for 5 months". We have restrictions - some of which have been in place eight weeks - with the remainder including our stay at home restriction being in its sixth week. Looking forward we have the removal of the various restrictions up to August of this year. Most other EU countries have also adopted a gradual removal of restrictions

It looks like the UK will following a somewhat similar path as Ireland. This is good for us as we share a land border with them

How many have died due to Covid-19? Today that figure today stands at 1,446. However imo these people do not deserve to be reduced by calculations to a premature "less than 5,000. 0.1% of 5 million population". It remains the final death toll of this outbreak will not be known for some time.

What we do know is that the outbreak todate has resulted in the deaths of 6% of those known to be infected. That figure will change but again the final figures wont be known until the pandemic is officially ended.

As to flu mortality it appears you are making the figures up out of thin air tbh.

So what is the true flu mortality figure in Ireland this year? To paraphrase your comment above - It's not "0.1%."

I believe Arghus and others have already pointed out the error in calculating your mortality rate. But for the sake of argument let's use that methodology. That gives a Flu mortality of 0.002% . As you can see the two figures aren't even close.

And to confirm that statement- yes Covid-19 is currenly much more serious than flu for the simple reason there have been 1,446 deaths due to Covid-19 todate compared to 103 from influenza during the 2019/20 flu season.

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

There are 5 + studies done in 4 different countries showing mortality rate of 0.25% based on 15% of infected population.

Population sampled HAD covid symptoms. Imagine when you take into account asymptomatic people........

Antibody testing takes into account asymptomatic people. There are no community tests done that found 15% of a country's population to be currently infected

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/covid-antibody-test-in-german-town-shows-15-per-cent-infection-rate-0-4pc-death-rate

"Data from coronavirus deaths in Gangelt suggests an infection mortality rate of 0.37 per cent"

https://www.livescience.com/covid-antibody-test-results-new-york-test.html

"Cuomo said. New York is reporting 15,500 COVID-19 deaths, and if 2.7 million people were infected, that would mean the death rate would be 0.5%, Cuomo said."

:pac:

Thanks for those.

Those are interesting studies, but neither is conclusive in any way.

The German study is interesting, but it is small scale and doesn't answer a lot of other questions, without which you can't really extrapolate figures like mortality rate conclusively, as it says in the article -

Obviously these are all small-scale studies and none of them are deliberate experiments to see how far SARS-CoV-2 will spread if it is allowed to ‘rip through’ a population.

The New York study is similar -

However, that comes with "two big caveats," he said. This data is preliminary and is only a sample of 3,000 people. In addition, the state doesn't count people who died at home — not in a nursing home or hospital — or who were never tested for COVID-19, in their official tally of COVID-19 fatalities.

And further on towards the end of the article it says this - and this is quite important:

....experts previously told Live Science that those numbers are likely to be too high, because the antibody tests used in these surveys had a high false-positive rate, making their prevalence estimates likely very uncertain.

So the data is interesting, but that's it. You can't base your assumptions on it.

And neither is suggesting that the mortality rate is 0.03%. Both suggest it's higher and, in the case of the New York research, dramatically higher.