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Relaxation of Restrictions, Part III - **Read OP for Mod Warnings**

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  • Registered Users Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    jibber5000 wrote: »
    We can say that of that 14%, roughly 9% were extremely elderly and/or were not predicted by their doctors to have good survival outcomes.

    Hence the 5% dying in ICU were the only Covid deaths where people had a chance of recovering well from the disease.
    Data here from HPSC including age breakdowns.

    https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/casesinireland/epidemiologyofcovid-19inireland/


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,946 ✭✭✭kravmaga


    I hate to say it but we gotta open up fast? Otherwise we ll have a society of drink at home, stay at home, netflix, junk cheap food from supermarket? Could have serious effect on the demographics :(

    We already had that creeping in before the Corona virus hit , just add to your list

    Higher rate of suicides now and in the future due to the economic fallout from closing down the economy, domestic abuse on the rise and alcohol abuse, obesity issues due to comfort eating during the lockdown.

    From an economic point of view I think we should have followed the Swedish model, they never locked down there economy, they let the Swedish public decide. Or like the Czech Republic, they locked down immediately and now have opened up there economy now as they are through the peak.

    Although the Swedes and Czechs are a more self disciplined societies than the Irish for complying with rules and regulations.

    We are great for making up laws/rules however we don't enforce anything in this country.


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,307 ✭✭✭FintanMcluskey


    niallo27 wrote: »
    I do not believe what happened in Italy would happen again in what we know now.

    Nobody can say that with any confidence. This is killing the end of life and terminally ill, primarily affecting the over 65's. Nothing can stop it affecting those. The more of those over 65 that are in the population the harder a country will suffer.


  • Registered Users Posts: 18,996 ✭✭✭✭gozunda


    snotboogie wrote: »
    I am not moaning. I am pointing out the error in your statement, which is one i see over and over again. There is no plan to lift social distancing. Social distancing is the biggest restriction we have. To say there is a plan to lift our restrictions is false. There is a plan to lift as many ancillary restrictions as possible but there is no timeline on the big one.

    There is no error in my statement. Just your own comprehension I'm afraid.

    Social distancing is there because we are in the midst of a pandemic. It protects both you and me from being infected, getting seriously ill or passing it on to someone who may get seriously ill.

    I think you are the first here to even suggest such complete and utter nonsense. Even those who want no restrictions have not pushed that daft idea. I think your comment just might get a special award for that


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,447 ✭✭✭Ginger n Lemon


    gozunda wrote: »
    Oh dont start thst ****e again. That is the official figures for Covid-19 deaths. And the official figure for Flu deaths. If you dont like that tough!

    You may as well try to claim that those who died of flue 'died with it" and something else killed them entirely

    Or the person killed by the drunk driver - didnt die because of the crash- rather they died with it.

    Do you have a machine to predict when granny is going to die? Handy for taking out a sneaky insurance policy yeah?

    Get a grip ffs.

    We dont have "machines" to predict when a granny is going to die.

    We have a thing called LIFE EXPECTANCY. Our life expectancy is 82 years. This is our life expectancy over the last number of years.

    You can not keep this lockdown going WHEN MAJORITY of deaths are OVER 82 years of age.

    Leo & Co should get a grip and should start making decisions and end this farce of a lockdown. Instead of shifting it all on Tony H.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 16,011 ✭✭✭✭niallo27


    Nobody can say that with any confidence. This is killing the end of life and terminally ill, primarily affecting the over 65's. Nothing can stop it affecting those. The more of those over 65 that are in the population the harder a country will suffer.

    I dont think your giving enough credit to the irish public, the vast majority have followed the lockdown strictly with the results a clear indication of this. If we are told to socially distance and practise good hygiene, the vast majority will and I think this enough to stop our hospitals getting overwhelmed and a repeat of italy, that is my opinion on it. People will get sick and people will die but that is impossible stop.


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,307 ✭✭✭FintanMcluskey


    any source for that?

    here's my reply to you from a couple weeks ago, updated. [newer figures will be out tuesday, I'll post them here too...]

    Your graphs are using completely different metrics so they are a poor choice to use in an argument.

    Covid is being used as cause of death in all cases regardless. Influenza was not counted with the procedure as Covid, we can only assume influenza from "excess deaths seen in a country".
    In 2015 Europe had hundreds of thousands of excess deaths.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,829 ✭✭✭Cork Boy 53


    snotboogie wrote: »
    I am not moaning. I am pointing out the error in your statement, which is one i see over and over again. There is no plan to lift social distancing. Social distancing is the biggest restriction we have. To say there is a plan to lift our restrictions is false. There is a plan to lift as many ancillary restrictions as possible but there is no timeline on the big one.

    The is no plan to lift social distancing because unless a effective vaccine is developed distancing will remain in place for a long time to come. Deal with it.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,858 ✭✭✭Jizique


    gozunda wrote: »
    Oh dont start thst ****e again. That is the official figures for Covid-19 deaths. And the official figure for Flu deaths. If you dont like that tough!

    You may as well try to claim that those who died of flue 'died with it" and something else killed them entirely

    Or the person killed by the drunk driver - didnt die because of the crash- rather they died with it.

    Do you have a machine to predict when granny is going to die? Handy for taking out a sneaky insurance policy yeah?

    Get a grip ffs.

    To be honest with you, an actuary, an expert in probability, will price that risk appropriately, but chances are, you will not get life assurance for an 80 year old, esp one with pre-existing conditions


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,307 ✭✭✭FintanMcluskey


    niallo27 wrote: »
    I dont think your giving enough credit to the irish public, the vast majority have followed the lockdown strictly with the results a clear indication of this. If we are told to socially distance and practise good hygiene, the vast majority will and I think this enough to stop our hospitals getting overwhelmed and a repeat of italy, that is my opinion on it. People will get sick and people will die but that is impossible stop.
    Im not discrediting the Irish public. But I think people staying at home will not prevent something that kills people in nursing homes.
    The point Im making is if it happened from the beginning again, if it gets into nursing home's the figures will look the same, restrictions outside or not


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  • Registered Users Posts: 381 ✭✭Snugglebunnies


    The is no plan to lift social distancing because unless a effective vaccine is developed distancing will remain in place for a long time to come. Deal with it.

    Social distancing may be necessary for a long long time for health reasons, that doesn't mean it won't cause other social problems. People have the right to be concerned about it.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,447 ✭✭✭Ginger n Lemon


    Newstalk now

    SMEs are asking for 15 billion support package from the government to survive.

    They are also asking for help to boost demand.

    280 000 SMEs employing 1.5m people. 25% are in difficulty, 145 000 jobs at risk.

    It is evident that lockdown needs to be lifted ahead of schedule. Instead of giving 350 per week to people to keep them at home, support the SMEs instead and let them pay their staff... Its better to save jobs than give 350 a week for netflix/cans/junk food at home.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,392 ✭✭✭robbiezero


    Exactly. Avoiding strangers in the supermarket is fine and I'm sure most people have no problem doing that. Staying 2 metres apart from family, friends and partners indefinitely is not fine for the majority. I know there's no option but to do that for now but I'd love to know an estimate for how long that will be necessary. That's the kind of restriction that will do massive harm to people in the long term.

    I think we will end up with just self-contained pods of maybe immediate family where the distancing will not apply. It could be awkward enough to implement as there is often a lot of intersections with any reasonably sized families, so not sure how it will work.
    My wife would be very "hands on" with her family, but mine would be much "less huggy" so in our situation we could visit mine but keep distance and visit hers and not so much.
    When something like this will be officially allowed, who knows. I think that like with the "not allowed sit in your parents garden if they are more than 20km away for the next 10 weeks" rule, people will just have to use their own common sense and decide what they can do safely themselves, in the absence of any sensible guidance.


  • Registered Users Posts: 18,996 ✭✭✭✭gozunda


    Unfortunately this is not true. 1968 Pandemic had more deaths than Covid, much more deaths.
    https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1968-pandemic.html
    So thats not last 100 years, but more last 50 years. 2nd off, They are aware of "the serious imbalance of money out versus money in". The issue we are raising here is that those people wont be in the decision making positions 6 months from now or 12 months from now, while the poverty created the "money out imbalance vs money in" will have to be suffered though by a younger generation that is COMPLETELY UNAFFECTED by covid. So you are creating huge poverty for a younger generation that does not even get affected by the very thing you are imposing the lockdown for. I've talked with 18 year olds and 19 year olds yesterday, all had 1 message "may need to go abroad". Does 1860 ring a bell?
    They need to lift restrictions ahead of schedule, they can not start the lockdown drumming the "FLATTEN THE CURVE" and once curve is flattened take 3 months + to open the economy.

    One difference there. The Covid pandemic is not over or even close. Perhaps you would like to place a bet with PaddyPowers if you are sure Covid-19 will have fewer deaths than 1968. Best of luck with that.

    Your "younger generation" is most certainly NOT COMPLETELY UNAFFECTED by covid"

    Leaving the many many young people who have long term Illnesses such as Asthma and who are at risk of becoming seriously ill or dying from Civid-19. There is the family of same young people - their parents, their siblings, their grandparents who may die and the effect of that on any individual cannot be underestimated.

    A down turn in the economy does NOT just affect " young people". It effects everyone.

    So you are talking to 18 and 19 year olds? (Hope you are observing social distancing btw) who think they might have to go abroad?

    Where do you suggest they go? There is a global recession caused by the current outbreak with even Swedens economy without restrictions- being badly affected.

    Thankfully the small number of screamers do not get to call the shots for everyone or just their own selfish ideas.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,392 ✭✭✭robbiezero


    The is no plan to lift social distancing because unless a effective vaccine is developed distancing will remain in place for a long time to come. Deal with it.

    Cop on. No need to be an asshole.


  • Registered Users Posts: 15,209 ✭✭✭✭stephenjmcd


    The is no plan to lift social distancing because unless a effective vaccine is developed distancing will remain in place for a long time to come. Deal with it.

    And you think in 6 months times for example people will still be practising social distancing. I've posted this before, Denmark for example it's still to be practised, its widely not being adhered to. This is human nature.

    It wont be lifted but we'll see if its still being adhered to given a vaccine could be a long time away or not at all. If not at all then what is the social impacts for years to come ? Young people for example are they to remain socially distant for years to come and not potentially meet future partners which under social distancing would be difficult. I think not.

    Poster stated it will cause other issues, I've pointed out one that it will cause. No need to be aggressive in your deal with it tone, you've been quite clear in other posts you wont be doing anything until theres a vaccine, that's grand, let the rest of us get on with life and not waste years of it.


  • Registered Users Posts: 21,039 ✭✭✭✭retro:electro


    A comment under Simon Harris’ Instagram this morning. It’s all good and well encouraging people to seek assistance if they notice anything unusual, but if there’s no service there to assist them well it’s kind of futile isn’t it. This is a disgrace. We will be dealing with the fall out for this for years.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,447 ✭✭✭Ginger n Lemon


    gozunda wrote: »
    One difference there. The Covid pandemic is not over or even close. Perhaps you would like to place a bet with PaddyPowers if you are sure Covid-19 will have fewer deaths than 1968. Best of luck with that.

    Your "younger generation" is most certainly NOT COMPLETELY UNAFFECTED by covid"

    Leaving the many many young people who have long term Illnesses such as Asthma and who are at risk of becoming seriously ill or dying from Civid-19. There is the family of same young people - their parents, their siblings, their grandparents who may die and the effect of that on any individual cannot be underestimated.

    A down turn in the economy does NOT just affect " young people". It effects everyone.

    So you are talking to 18 and 19 year olds? (Hope you are observing social distancing btw) who think they might have to go abroad?

    Where do you suggest they go? There is a global recession caused by the current outbreak with even Swedens economy without restrictions- being badly affected.

    Thankfully the small number of screamers do not get to call the shots for everyone or just their own selfish ideas.

    My friend - good morning. Sorry where were my manners.

    Anyways another day of enlightenment

    Posted 4 days ago:

    "Official figures show the Sweden's economy shrank by just 0.3pc in the first three months of 2020, a far smaller decline than most forecasters and its central bank expected. The Riksbank had pencilled in a drop of between 0.8pc and 1.8pc.

    The smaller scale of the fall contrasts with record slumps seen elsewhere across the Eurozone over the quarter as governments imposed much more stringent measures. France's economy tumbled 5.8pc, Italy's 4.7pc and Spain's by 5.2pc,
    "

    Their pandemic unemployment? not even 10%. Could be 10% in the summer. 18% less than Ireland.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/heal...-idUSL5N2C2300

    From economic perspective they are doing 2.5 times better in terms of unemployment and 5 times better in terms of GDP, from deaths perspective they have 20 deaths more per million than Ireland. 0.002% more deaths per million than Ireland.

    Seems like Sweden's approach is by far more superior. And Ireland better follow it sooner rather than later by lifting them restrictions.

    PS better economy = longer life expectancy = fewer deaths. This is fact also.


  • Registered Users Posts: 21,039 ✭✭✭✭retro:electro


    And another one.


  • Registered Users Posts: 381 ✭✭Snugglebunnies


    And you think in 6 months times for example people will still be practising social distancing. I've posted this before, Denmark for example it's still to be practised, its widely not being adhered to. This is human nature.

    It wont be lifted but we'll see if its still being adhered to given a vaccine could be a long time away or not at all. If not at all then what is the social ? Young people for example are they to remain socially distant for years to come and not potentially meet future partners which under social distancing would be difficult. I think not.

    Poster stated it will cause other issues, I've pointed out one that it will cause. No need to be aggressive in your deal with it tone

    I really think social distancing will fall by the wayside regarding family etc. over time. It's just not realistic or sustainable in the long term.


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  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,829 ✭✭✭Cork Boy 53


    Social distancing may be necessary for a long long time for health reasons, that doesn't mean it won't cause other social problems. People have the right to be concerned about it.

    People also have the right to be concerned about their own and others health by not being infected with the virus if at all possible. These other social problems of one sort or another have been present long before this virus ever appeared and will be after the virus is brought under some degree of control.


  • Registered Users Posts: 18,996 ✭✭✭✭gozunda


    We dont have "machines" to predict when a granny is going to die.We have a thing called LIFE EXPECTANCY. Our life expectancy is 82 years. This is our life expectancy over the last number of years.You can not keep this lockdown going WHEN MAJORITY of deaths are OVER 82 years of age. Leo & Co should get a grip and should start making decisions and end this farce of a lockdown. Instead of shifting it all on Tony H.

    Ah I get it. We just shoot everyone who gets to 82. A bit like Logans Run. Grand so. Sounds legit.

    And no it's not your favourite bugbear 'Tony". Go take a look at other countries if you are in doubt

    It's not a lockdown btw - they are restictions which are inline to be rolled back

    If you are bored perhaps go play with some lego or whatever.


    Q9PghJR.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 28,764 ✭✭✭✭_Kaiser_


    The issue is how restrictive Ireland is. The decision today was an indicator that the roadmap is horses##t and all that's due on the 18th of May is an extension.

    Didn't get to see much yesterday. What decision do you mean?


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,392 ✭✭✭robbiezero


    People also have the right to be concerned about their own and others health by not being infected with the virus if at all possible. These other social problems of one sort or another have been present long before this virus ever appeared and will be after the virus is brought under some degree of control.

    Nobody is going to force you to go near anyone. You can social distance until 2050 if you like.


  • Registered Users Posts: 15,209 ✭✭✭✭stephenjmcd


    I really think social distancing will fall by the wayside regarding family etc. over time. It's just not realistic or sustainable in the long term.

    I fully agree. Just can't see it being followed widely if and when say in September for example a month after phase 5 has seen basically everything reopen and cases are hopefully low. Poses all sorts of issues long term in years to come. People will just break it. I'd love to know if some people think social distancing will be practised at a wedding for example. I think I know the answer.


  • Registered Users Posts: 381 ✭✭Snugglebunnies


    People also have the right to be concerned about their own and others health by not being infected with the virus if at all possible These other social problems of one sort or another have been present long before this virus ever appeared and will be after the virus is brought under some degree of control.

    It's possible to be concerned about more than one thing you know. I believe if you're still social distancing from all your family and friends in 6 months time you'll be in the minority.


  • Registered Users Posts: 908 ✭✭✭coastwatch


    Every additional day of restrictions is having a negative effect on peoples wellbeing and on the economy.
    With the consistent improvement in the numbers (new cases, hospital admissions, ICU beds) is there a case to be made to bring in Phase 1 re-opening a few days earlier, to Friday 15th May, and include some phase 2 elements, such as street level retail shops, libraries and increasing the distance limit to 20km?


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,349 ✭✭✭Jimmy Garlic


    The is no plan to lift social distancing because unless a effective vaccine is developed distancing will remain in place for a long time to come. Deal with it.

    Nah it won’t, people in ever increasing numbers are very obviously not bothering with it anymore.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,560 ✭✭✭Charles Babbage


    We dont have "machines" to predict when a granny is going to die.

    We have a thing called LIFE EXPECTANCY. Our life expectancy is 82 years. This is our life expectancy over the last number of years.

    You can not keep this lockdown going WHEN MAJORITY of deaths are OVER 82 years of age.

    Leo & Co should get a grip and should start making decisions and end this farce of a lockdown. Instead of shifting it all on Tony H.

    All sick political philosophies start with some other group of people being expendable.


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  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,829 ✭✭✭Cork Boy 53


    gozunda wrote: »
    Ah I get it. We just shoot everyone who gets to 82. A bit like Logans Run. Grand so. Sounds legit.

    And no it's not your favourite bugbear 'Tony". Go take at other countries if you are in doubt

    It's not a lockdown btw - they are restictions which are inline to be rolled back

    If you are bored perhaps go lay with some lego or whatever.

    Exactly. This notion that many people have that, apart from the vulnerable groups, we have ever been in a proper lockdown is frankly nonsensical.


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