Relaxation of restrictions Part II

tobefrank321 · 07-05-2020 11:26PM

addaword wrote: »

And consultations with other medical specialists too, which are currently on hold.

Yep and mostly caused by social media and mainstream media scaremongering.

The bigger crises now than covid 19 are mental health, lack of cancer diagnoses and unemployment.

These need to be the headline news going forward in Ireland.

Goldengirl · 07-05-2020 11:29PM

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Not really logic after Tony admitted Ireland are counting suspected not proven Covid deaths. So the numbers are of course inflated

Those deaths are based on their doctor's clinical judgement, who would have known the patient and certified the death . What you think, they are just guessing?!

kelso00 · 07-05-2020 11:29PM

Goldengirl wrote: »

Last months deaths were reported as the record highest deaths in April ever.

You are probably referring to stats from Rip.ie. Here is more reliable source. Easy to compare to other countries.

https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/

We are in the same trend as ie, Austria, Denmark, Germany. Completely different than UK, Spain or Italy

timmy_mallet · 07-05-2020 11:32PM

Goldengirl wrote: »

That is not right. It was shown yesterday on the briefing. Record high deaths for month of April, highest ever recorded. Jan Feb and March are all up higher than seasonal norm .

Will be curious to see the annual rates this time next year, how much excess annual mortality due to this there is.

Goldengirl · 07-05-2020 11:33PM

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Is there information for this I can't find any?

Go look up the stats from all the briefings this last week . That is where I saw it

Goldengirl · 07-05-2020 11:40PM

ceadaoin. wrote: »

One month doesn't mean anything. Much better to look back at the numbers for the year and see if they are significantly higher overall. For all we know deaths could spike for a few months then be lower than usual in other months so that it all averages out. I suspect that will turn out to be the likely scenario, rather than a hugely disproportionate number of deaths compared to other years.

I apologise for not having the link to the briefing , but he showed deaths for the last 12 months , I think and overlaid them with average deaths in these months and the highest deaths . It was clearly higher inJan , Feb and Mar this year and highest of all in April .

easypazz · 07-05-2020 11:41PM

Penfailed wrote: »

I think this post will annoy/satisfy both cohorts in the thread. I've just caught up on about five or six pages. The reason I was so far behind - I was at work today! The crowd I work for have reopened. That will keep the 'open everything' crowd happy. It's construction, so it's mostly outdoor. The reason it will annoy some of those same people is because it's in the north. I'll be crossing the border in the morning and crossing it again in the evening.

Good news.

The north seem to be getting numbers under control as well now.

tobefrank321 · 07-05-2020 11:42PM

kelso00 wrote: »

You are probably referring to stats from Rip.ie. Here is more reliable source. Easy to compare to other counties.

https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/

We are in the same trend as ie, Austria, Denmark, Germany. Completely different than UK, Spain or Italy

This is not more reliable. We have the same deaths per million as Sweden and they are showing an all time high spike. We meanwhile are showing an all time low!

Even Varadkar said our excess deaths are calculated months behind.

Goldengirl · 07-05-2020 11:48PM

kelso00 wrote: »

You are probably referring to stats from Rip.ie. Here is more reliable source. Easy to compare to other counties.

https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/

We are in the same trend as ie, Austria, Denmark, Germany. Completely different than UK, Spain or Italy

That is really clear thanks for that.
Yes it was the stats from RIP.ie that they were talking about .

normanoffside · 07-05-2020 11:56PM

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

OK. If this is the case then I withdraw my previous comments. Satisfied now?

Yes, thanks.

Penfailed · 08-05-2020 12:02AM

easypazz wrote: »

Good news.

The north seem to be getting numbers under control as well now.

Same sh1te with nursing homes though. It was reported this morning that, out of 38 residents in one nursing home, 36 tested positive. It's a sh1tshow everywhere as far as that goes.
I'm glad to be out and about again. I've barely left the house in six or seven weeks. Work is going to be completely different than it was in early March though. Everything is going to be slower due to the social distancing. PPE was already pretty full on...now it's on steroids. Paperwork will still be done from home. Anyway...the May Day bank holiday in the north is tomorrow!

Goldengirl · 08-05-2020 12:09AM

Penfailed wrote: »

Same sh1te with nursing homes though. It was reported this morning that, out of 38 residents in one nursing home, 36 tested positive. It's a sh1tshow everywhere as far as that goes.
I'm glad to be out and about again. I've barely left the house in six or seven weeks. Work is going to be completely different than it was in early March though. Everything is going to be slower due to the social distancing. PPE was already pretty full on...now it's on steroids. Paperwork will still be done from home. Anyway...the May Day bank holiday in the north is tomorrow!

So you get 2 bank holidays?

gozunda · 08-05-2020 12:10AM

Penfailed wrote: »

Same sh1te with nursing homes though. It was reported this morning that, out of 38 residents in one nursing home, 36 tested positive. It's a sh1tshow everywhere as far as that goes.
I'm glad to be out and about again. I've barely left the house in six or seven weeks. Work is going to be completely different than it was in early March though. Everything is going to be slower due to the social distancing. PPE was already pretty full on...now it's on steroids. Paperwork will still be done from home. Anyway...the May Day bank holiday in the north is tomorrow!

Looks like they're not for easing restictions either. Similar problem with small number of slackers not engaging with the restrictions as here

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0507/1137094-coronavirus-northern-ireland/

Cork Boy 53 · 08-05-2020 12:14AM

kippy wrote: »

Great post. Totally disagree with it but great post

Actually it is a disgraceful post. Full of bluster, empty rhetoric and incitement to law breaking. I am amazed the mods have allowed it to stay up.

easypazz · 08-05-2020 12:14AM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

HSE hospital report after being issued for today.

As of 8pm tonight there are 76 confirmed cases in ICU.

Also as of 8pm there are 569 confirmed cases in acute hospitals.

Last night that was 82 confirmed cases in ICU and 618 cases in acute hospitals.

Solid trend now. Hopefully more of our hard lockdown measures will be relaxed ahead of the current roadmap and all the people really struggling and suffering hardship can start to rebuild their lives.

timmy_mallet · 08-05-2020 12:15AM

gozunda wrote: »

Looks like they're not for easing restictions either. Similar problem with small number of slackers as here

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0507/1137094-coronavirus-northern-ireland/

Yeah, those healthcare workers and care home residents, right slackers, aren't they.

gozunda · 08-05-2020 12:23AM

Goldengirl wrote: »

That is really clear thanks for that.
Yes it was the stats from RIP.ie that they were talking about .

The findings are from an academic study by Dr Gerard McCarthy who is a lecturer in the Department of Geography at Maynooth University and Dr Pádraig MacCarron who is an applied mathematician and Complex Networks Researcher at the University of Limerick

Using data gathered from RIP.ie they noted that
there were more death notices posted in April 2020 for Dublin, Kildare, Laois, Meath, Louth, Cavan, and Monaghan than any other month from 2010 to present. In Carlow, Cork, and Kerry, the number of death notices in April 2020 is the highest number of postings in any April. Some counties showed no significant changes however.

More on the study here:

https://www.rte.ie/brainstorm/2020/0505/1136496-death-notices-ireland-coronavirus/

Goldengirl · 08-05-2020 12:28AM

gozunda wrote: »

The findings are from an academic study by Dr Gerard McCarthy who is a lecturer in the Department of Geography at Maynooth University and Dr Pádraig MacCarron who is an applied mathematician and Complex Networks Researcher at the University of Limerick

Using data gathered from RIP.ie they noted that
there were more death notices posted in April 2020 for Dublin, Kildare, Laois, Meath, Louth, Cavan, and Monaghan than any other month from 2010 to present. In Carlow, Cork, and Kerry, the number of death notices in April 2020 is the highest number of postings in any April. Some counties showed no significant changes however.

More on the study here:

https://www.rte.ie/brainstorm/2020/0505/1136496-death-notices-ireland-coronavirus/

Thanks , that was it. I had half an eye on it and on the dinner and what stood out was the highest number of deaths in April 2020 .

gozunda · 08-05-2020 12:30AM

timmy_mallet wrote: »

Yeah, those healthcare workers and care home residents, right slackers, aren't they.

But who said anything about "healthcare workers and care home residents"?

I presume you are replying to the wrong comment That's seems to be happening a lot tbh. No worries.

Read the article where it refers to those choosing not to observe the restrictions. The sound little different from the slackers here tbh.

Adherence to virus restrictions slipping - police

Adherence to Covid-19 restrictions has slipped over recent weeks, according to the assistant chief constable of the Police Service of Northern Ireland.

Traffic numbers have been increasing week-on-week for the last five weeks, Alan Todd said.

He is warning against complacency this bank holiday weekend, and said outdoor parties involving drink could see social distancing rules flouted...

Sound familiar?

uli84 · 08-05-2020 12:34AM

easypazz wrote: »

Solid trend now. Hopefully more of our hard lockdown measures will be relaxed ahead of the current roadmap and all the people really struggling and suffering hardship can start to rebuild their lives.

Not holding my breath to be honest but hey maybe i’ll be surprised

Penfailed · 08-05-2020 12:36AM

Goldengirl wrote: »

So you get 2 bank holidays?

Unfortunately not!

Penfailed · 08-05-2020 12:40AM

gozunda wrote: »

Looks like they're not for easing restictions either. Similar problem with small number of slackers as here

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0507/1137094-coronavirus-northern-ireland/

In my opinion, it should be a joined up effort between north and south. It can't really work any other way. It should be the same approach.

kelso00 · 08-05-2020 12:46AM

gozunda wrote: »

The findings are from an academic study by Dr Gerard McCarthy who is a lecturer in the Department of Geography at Maynooth University and Dr Pádraig MacCarron who is an applied mathematician and Complex Networks Researcher at the University of Limerick

Using data gathered from RIP.ie they noted that
there were more death notices posted in April 2020 for Dublin, Kildare, Laois, Meath, Louth, Cavan, and Monaghan than any other month from 2010 to present. In Carlow, Cork, and Kerry, the number of death notices in April 2020 is the highest number of postings in any April. Some counties showed no significant changes however.

More on the study here:

https://www.rte.ie/brainstorm/2020/0505/1136496-death-notices-ireland-coronavirus/

This is study on number of death notices not number of actual deaths. As bad as it sounds rip.ie is some sort of "social media" and depends on families publishing the notice.

Gerard McCarthy twit:
"A county-by-county analysis of numbers of death notices posted to http://RIP.ie in April 2020. Many counties (red) have posted the highest number of notices ever. Others (orange) have posted the highest numbers for April."

source: https://twitter.com/ger_the_sea/status/1257680812671217665

BoatMad · 08-05-2020 12:49AM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

HSE hospital report after being issued for today.

As of 8pm tonight there are 76 confirmed cases in ICU.

Also as of 8pm there are 569 confirmed cases in acute hospitals.

Last night that was 82 confirmed cases in ICU and 618 cases in acute hospitals.

its clear we are over doing it , an Ro<=0.5 means the virus isnt basically spreading at all.

Social distancing works, the rest of the lockdown measure are arguably not that effective . we need to beef up social distancing ( with legal backup ) and remove other restrictions , especially the regional travel ones as they are doing little

BoatMad · 08-05-2020 12:53AM

teh rip study and teh RTE piece has this

Nationally, the number of death notices posted on RIP.ie in April 2020 for the whole of Ireland are the highest on record, but comparable with January 2018 and 2017 when there was a bad flu season.

and

There is increasingly heated debate about whether the unprecedented measures implemented to combat the spread of Covid-19 are necessary to maintain, if excess mortality is comparable to that of the seasonal flu. However, this picture of the national situation, where Ireland could be on track to keeping mortality to that of a bad flu season

sugest that we might escape with essentially a bad year flu numbers

gozunda · 08-05-2020 01:10AM

H

kelso00 wrote: »

This is study on number of death notices not number of actual deaths. As bad as it sounds rip.ie is some sort of "social media" and depends on families publishing the notice.

Gerard McCarthy twit:
"A county-by-county analysis of numbers of death notices posted to http://RIP.ie in April 2020. Many counties (red) have posted the highest number of notices ever. Others (orange) have posted the highest numbers for April."

source: https://twitter.com/ger_the_sea/status/1257680812671217665

So you are saying the figures for Covid-19 deaths should be even higher :eek:

00144d7c-614.jpg?ratio=1.66

Assetbacked · 08-05-2020 01:11AM

gozunda wrote: »

But who said anything about "healthcare workers and care home residents"?

I presume you are replying to the wrong comment That's seems to be happening a lot tbh. No worries.

Read the article where it refers to those choosing not to observe the restrictions. The sound little different from the slackers here tbh.

Sound familiar?

The numbers paint a different picture though, community transmission is dead. Tony even announced that the virus has been suppressed in the community earlier today. It's done, time to move on, get back to a form of normal with social distancing, better hygiene practices and whatever is advised but the main thing is to reopen the country as the public have shown their responsibility by suppressing the virus.

gozunda · 08-05-2020 01:24AM

BoatMad wrote: »

teh rip study and teh RTE piece has this

and

sugest that we might escape with essentially a bad year flu numbers

That was for January only

Flu season has finished for now in Ireland according to the HSE. Not so Covid-19

lord quackinton · 08-05-2020 01:26AM

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0507/1137125-coronavirus-analysis/

Time to open up people

gozunda · 08-05-2020 01:35AM

Assetbacked wrote: »

The numbers paint a different picture though, community transmission is dead. Tony even announced that the virus has been suppressed in the community earlier today. It's done, time to move on, get back to a form of normal with social distancing, better hygiene practices and whatever is advised but the main thing is to reopen the country as the public have shown their responsibility by suppressing the virus.

Tbh the comment was more about things in the North and South not being much different - with some people continuing to flout the restrictions

Afaik "community transmission" is not "dead". It is currently suppressed because of those restrictions. If people somehow think think the dangers are gone - and all the restrictions are lifted - I reckon we will pay the price with the rate of infection starting again to rise. We do know the restrictions will be lifted at some point. Though even Spain and France haven't decided to rescind their restrictions completely .

Relaxation of restrictions Part II

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