Relaxation of restrictions Part II

facehugger99 · 06-05-2020 03:04PM

There are currently over 1.2 million people wither fully or partially reliant on the State for their income.
We can add in the 300,000 public servants to this as well to give us a whopping 1.5 million people drawing money direct from the State coffers.

Considering we have a population of only 4.9 million, many of whom are retired or children, you don't need a degree in maths to see how farcical and unsustainable the current situation is.

Our hospitals lie mostly empty while we lockdown the working population over a virus that has a minuscule chance of killing them.

06-05-2020 03:06PM

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Idk.

We are at 22% unemployment with 1350 dead. Where might we be with 2nd lockdown?

You misunderstand - I want to get the opening up right, at the right time, with the right controls, so we never have to go back. That is the best thing for the economy and the people

gozunda · 06-05-2020 03:09PM

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Herd immunity is related to probability.

If only 1 in 10 people are immune to something, this means the other 9 out of 10 are at high risk of being infected - if you are in a high risk category this means you are always at risk of being infected. If 9 out of 10 are immune, the 1 out of 10 person has a very low chance of being infected in any situation. And all these 1 in 10 people are at very low risk no matter who they meet. Its also somewhat similar for 80% herd immunity. Eventually the virus would die out because it has no-one new to infect.

There is no evidence a vaccine could establish any greater herd immunity than just letting it progress through the healthy in society. We've had decades of experience with the flu vaccine and even still its reckoned to be only 70% effective at establishing herd immunity. This means you have 3 out of every 10 people who are not immune - a large portion of society. And then you have to "re-do" the vaccine every year and if you get it wrong you are screwed.

Yes I understand the theory of 'herd immunity. .

Unfortunately it would appear that the herd immunity approach to the current Pandemic does not hold up to real world scrutiny. With the goal of even 80% herd immunity through exposure not being realistic looking at current stats.

No reference to a vaccine was made btw. However the following article discusses both herd immunity and vaccines and many of the relevant issues.

https://www.globalhealthnow.org/2019-12/myth-about-herd-immunity

Cork Boy 53 · 06-05-2020 03:09PM

1Q2WHYUUU wrote: »

If we copy the movie Logan's run all will be solved !!!!

Well maybe older than 30 for the mandatory death sentence but otherwise a few posters here would seem to be in favour of that happening.

tobefrank321 · 06-05-2020 03:10PM

lawrencesummers wrote: »

Expert clinically driven analysis like that will get you top job on trumps soon to be disbanded Covid 19 response team.

In one post your managed to invent immunity and then have a plan that will extend it to 12 months.

Well done.

Invent immunity? What are you raving on about?

Find me a single case out of 3.6 million where a person has been reinfected, or admit you're wrong.

06-05-2020 03:11PM

partyguinness wrote: »

Ah but sure they have 60 years to catch up as some other genius here posted.

Ah but sure some people here believe you should just let nature takes its course with the elderly and sick who are of no longer of economic use, or was that just you?

06-05-2020 03:13PM

1Q2WHYUUU wrote: »

If we copy the movie Logan's run all will be solved !!!!

Off to carousel with you

tobefrank321 · 06-05-2020 03:16PM

gozunda wrote: »

Yes I understand the theory of 'herd immunity. .

Unfortunately it would appear that the herd immunity approach to the current Pandemic does not hold up to real world scrutiny. With the goal of even 80% herd immunity through exposure not being realistic looking at current stats.

No reference to a vaccine was made btw. However the following article discusses both herd immunity and vaccines and many of the relevant issues.

https://www.globalhealthnow.org/2019-12/myth-about-herd-immunity

Several candidate vaccines are looking promising at present. One at Oxford is already in human trials, one in Italy has proven to work in mice and the Chinese also claim to have one that works in rhesus macaques.

I would be astonished despite this progress if any one of these are widely available to the general public before 1st January next year. You cannot rush a vaccine. Those undergoing human trials will have to be monitored for at least 6 months for side affects. We saw the affects of the rushed swine flu vaccine - narcolepsy in people who were at low risk of swine flu - the same could easily happen to those at low risk from coronavirus - serious long term complications from a rushed vaccine.

By 1st January next year, countries will either have wrecked economies that make the Great Depression look like a cakewalk or else countries like Sweden will have achieved herd immunity months before.

Entire countries and economies waiting in lockdown for a vaccine. Nice idea. Not practical in the REAL WORLD.

thegetawaycar · 06-05-2020 03:16PM

Is there a party in the Dail arguing against the lockdown?
SF seem to be advocating against opening up too soon, FF and FG clearly happy to have it for the moment.

The funny thing in this thread is the amount of left leaning posters pushing to open up and put business before people.

There's a plan to re-open and relax restrictions but you will never have everyone happy because everyone believes they know better.

Kermit.de.frog · 06-05-2020 03:20PM

Somewhat ironic that the shinner bots are so concerned about the economy yet their own party would do more damage to the economy than COVID ever could.

Penfailed · 06-05-2020 03:20PM

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Entire countries and economies waiting in lockdown for a vaccine. Nice idea. Not practical in the REAL WORLD.

It's not happening in the real world, is it?

hopalongcass · 06-05-2020 03:22PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Sure the banks love it when economic activity grinds to a halt.

But but but the banks...but but but the goberment...but but but sheeple.

Virtually every-f**ng-where else is doing it do ye nutters. You can argue the rights and wrongs of the policy, but Ireland is not alone in what is being done, far from it

Not virtually every one else is doing what we are doing,hardly any of them are doing what we are doing,we are being used as an example of how not to do it by NZ,that should tell you something considering we never even got overrun with it like Italy.But yet our restrictions are worse than anyone,Britain locked down after us and are now opening up way ahead of us and they had far more deaths,its pathetic,how corrupt and weak our leaders have always been.

There's 3 kinds of people on these forums,there is the shills like yourself happy gleaming a few crumbs of the elites table so will defend this rubbish to the death.

Then there is the people in the middle who naively believe governments and banks aren't screwing them into the ground and its just how it is.

Then there is the people who know how it is,they know politicians are just pawns of the banks and don't give a jot if half their population dies as long as they line their pockets.So why now are they so bothered about saving a few lives.It reeks and some of us can see the obvious.

I would bet if i searched the threads you were probably on the Simon Harris appreciation thread a few weeks back.All the while completely forgetting the blood on his hands from the smear test scandal,he didn't give a jot how many women died as long as he done the deal with the pharma company,no doubt getting secret handshakes for signing these death deals to multiple Irish women.

Now hes got his hands on the pot of gold and he isn't gonna easily let go of his opportunity to keep digging into that bond market,as evidenced by his shills all across these boards.Pushing and pushing for more lockdowns more debt when hardly anybody is dying and nobody healthy or young.

Some of us have been around too long to fall for the same rubbish again and again more austerity off course, economic turmoil inflicted on us by our own patriotic leaders,just like the last time when we decided to bail out private business at the expense of us all and these same banks we saved won't give the same people a penny now to build their own houses,couldn't make it up how pathetic and weak we are as a country.

I used to be proud to be Irish that boat long since sailed.

gozunda · 06-05-2020 03:22PM

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Several candidate vaccines are looking promising at present. One at Oxford is already in human trials, one in Italy has proven to work in mice and the Chinese also claim to have one that works in rhesus macaques.

I would be astonished despite this progress if any one of these are widely available to the general public before 1st January next year. You cannot rush a vaccine. Those undergoing human trials will have to be monitored for at least 6 months for side affects. We saw the affects of the rushed swine flu vaccine - narcolepsy in people who were at low risk of swine flu - the same could easily happen to those at low risk from coronavirus - serious long term complications fromed a rush vaccine.

By 1st January next year, countries will either have wrecked economies that make the Great Depression look like a cakewalk or else countries like Sweden will have achieved herd immunity months before.

Entire countries and economies waiting in lockdown for a vaccine. Nice idea. Not practical in the REAL WORLD.

???
Just to reiterate - I've not made any case for a vaccine eitherway so no idea for your diatribe and shouty capitals tbh. A vacine or otherwise does not change that "herd immunity" remains a theory and unlikely to be of help in relation to Covid-19.

Penfailed · 06-05-2020 03:23PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Somewhat ironic that the shinner bots are so concerned about the economy yet their own party would do more damage to the economy than COVID ever could.

How can you determine who one votes for unless they actually tell you? I've seen this 'shinnerbot' term thrown around all over the place. It's pure guesswork.

partyguinness · 06-05-2020 03:25PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Ah but sure some people here believe you should just let nature takes its course with the elderly and sick who are of no longer of economic use, or was that just you?

Some people talk a lot of sense. Hard to find these days.

tobefrank321 · 06-05-2020 03:26PM

Penfailed wrote: »

It's not happening in the real world, is it?

Nope. Countries will have to adapt and live with covid 19 possibly long term.

easypazz · 06-05-2020 03:29PM

facehugger99 wrote: »

There are currently over 1.2 million people wither fully or partially reliant on the State for their income.
We can add in the 300,000 public servants to this as well to give us a whopping 1.5 million people drawing money direct from the State coffers.

Considering we have a population of only 4.9 million, many of whom are retired or children, you don't need a degree in maths to see how farcical and unsustainable the current situation is.

Our hospitals lie mostly empty while we lockdown the working population over a virus that has a minuscule chance of killing them.

Open the fcuking country.

Improve testing.

Shield the vulnerable groups

Social distance as much as is practical.

Temporary hospital capacity available at a realistic price, and available at short notice, as in have access to parts of state owned facilities

Army to store sufficient medical equipment so that additional hospital capacity can be made available at short notice.

Do it all by the end of June, this July 20th to travel 20kM and August 10th to partial opening of bars etc. is not a realistic plan at all.

tobefrank321 · 06-05-2020 03:30PM

gozunda wrote: »

???
Just to reiterate - I've not made any case for a vaccine eitherway so no idea for your diatribe and shouty capitals tbh. A vacine or otherwise does not change that "herd immunity" remains a theory and unlikely to be of help in relation to Covid-19.

The caps are not directed at you but in general at people who think we can afford to lockdown long term, which of course we can't.

Cork Boy 53 · 06-05-2020 03:32PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Somewhat ironic that the shinner bots are so concerned about the economy yet their own party would do more damage to the economy than COVID ever could.

I wonder had Mary Lou and her crew been in government when the virus spread here if they would have done things differently than what the current govt. has done. For example Pierce Doherty was shouting for everyone to be given a 500 euro covid payment indefinitely. Quite apart from the idiotic policies in their GE manifesto that so many voters swallowed hook line and sinker.

tobefrank321 · 06-05-2020 03:34PM

thegetawaycar wrote: »

Is there a party in the Dail arguing against the lockdown?
SF seem to be advocating against opening up too soon, FF and FG clearly happy to have it for the moment.

The funny thing in this thread is the amount of left leaning posters pushing to open up and put business before people.

There's a plan to re-open and relax restrictions but you will never have everyone happy because everyone believes they know better.

Its ok for Varadkar, Harris and Holohan to lecture against opening up. They have well paid jobs regardless, even though they should be taking 50% pay cuts to share some of the pain.

90% of this country likely live paycheck to paycheck - if they miss one paycheck they are in trouble.

Long after Harris and Varadkar have headed off to some new job or big pensions ordinary people will be paying for the mess they left behind. These guys are not living in the real world either.

06-05-2020 03:35PM

hopalongcass wrote: »

Not virtually every one else is doing what we are doing,hardly any of them are doing what we are doing,we are being used as an example of how not to do it by NZ,that should tell you something considering we never even got overrun with it like Italy.But yet our restrictions are worse than anyone,Britain locked down after us and are now opening up way ahead of us and they had far more deaths,its pathetic,how corrupt and weak our leaders have always been.

There's 3 kinds of people on these forums,there is the shills like yourself happy gleaming a few crumbs of the elites table so will defend this rubbish to the death.

Then there is the people in the middle who naively believe governments and banks aren't screwing them into the ground and its just how it is.

Then there is the people who know how it is,they know politicians are just pawns of the banks and don't give a jot if half their population dies as long as they line their pockets.So why now are they so bothered about saving a few lives.It reeks and some of us can see the obvious.

I would bet if i searched the threads you were probably on the Simon Harris appreciation thread a few weeks back.All the while completely forgetting the blood on his hands from the smear test scandal,he didn't give a jot how many women died as long as he done the deal with the pharma company,no doubt getting secret handshakes for signing these death deals to multiple Irish women.

Now hes got his hands on the pot of gold and he isn't gonna easily let go of his opportunity to keep digging into that bond market,as evidenced by his shills all across these boards.Pushing and pushing for more lockdowns more debt when hardly anybody is dying and nobody healthy or young.

Some of us have been around too long to fall for the same rubbish again and again more austerity off course, economic turmoil inflicted on us by our own patriotic leaders,just like the last time when we decided to bail out private business at the expense of us all and these same banks we saved won't give the same people a penny now to build their own houses,couldn't make it up how pathetic and weak we are as a country.

I used to be proud to be Irish that boat long since sailed.

New Zealand were not holding us up as an example of what not to do, we were being used an an example of what they would have had to do if things had not come under control, and may still have to do if they are not vigilant.

And don't claim to know anything about my motivations for posting here, I have my own mind, apply my own critical thinking and form my own opinions which align with different sides on different issues.

And I will never not be proud to be Irish, no matter who is in power or what decisions are been taken, so don't let the door hit you on the way out.

partyguinness · 06-05-2020 03:36PM

I think with hind sight there is a distinct possibility that history will say we overreacted.

the kelt · 06-05-2020 03:36PM

Penfailed wrote: »

How can you determine who one votes for unless they actually tell you? I've seen this 'shinnerbot' term thrown around all over the place. It's pure guesswork.

Its the usual thought process of some unfortunately, its a case of i think the polar opposite of someone else on a certain subject therefore we must have polar opposite beliefs etc in all aspects of life.

Kinda simplistic really.

Im pretty sure that when it comes to thoughts in regards to the pros and cons etc of easing restrictions and the speed associated they dont fall universally into certain segments of society for example.

Many people look for that though as it helps cement their own views, we have seen it on this thread loads.

06-05-2020 03:38PM

partyguinness wrote: »

Some people talk a lot of sense. Hard to find these days.

And proud of it too, Jesus!

is_that_so · 06-05-2020 03:38PM

thegetawaycar wrote: »

Is there a party in the Dail arguing against the lockdown?
SF seem to be advocating against opening up too soon, FF and FG clearly happy to have it for the moment.

The funny thing in this thread is the amount of left leaning posters pushing to open up and put business before people.

There's a plan to re-open and relax restrictions but you will never have everyone happy because everyone believes they know better.

What's interesting in this is how the public or some of the public are more clued into what's going on than most politicians. I find some of the contributions and lack of knowledge as bad as the journalists in the daily briefings!

06-05-2020 03:40PM

easypazz wrote: »

Plenty of availability on booking.com for Dublin tomorrow night.

I doubt they will ask any questions when you arrive at the desk.............

As per government guidelines to minimise the transmission of the Coronavirus (COVID-19), this property can only accept bookings from essential workers and reasonable evidence must be provided upon arrival. If reasonable evidence is not provided, your booking will be cancelled upon arrival.

is_that_so · 06-05-2020 03:43PM

easypazz wrote: »

Open the fcuking country.

Improve testing.

Shield the vulnerable groups

Social distance as much as is practical.

Temporary hospital capacity available at a realistic price, and available at short notice, as in have access to parts of state owned facilities

Army to store sufficient medical equipment so that additional hospital capacity can be made available at short notice.

Do it all by the end of June, this July 20th to travel 20kM and August 10th to partial opening of bars etc. is not a realistic plan at all.

Slow but safe is the message, a sensible one IMO. Testing is now up to 84,000 capacity, with the majority turned around in 2-4 days. We're now back at the hypochondriac's case definition. Hopefully there'll be an antibody test that can be rolled out as well. Then we'll have an app or apps and contact tracing to beat the band.

the kelt · 06-05-2020 03:44PM

is_that_so wrote: »

What's interesting in this is how the public or some of the public are more clued into what's doing on than politicians. I find some of the contributions and lack of knowledge as bad as the journalists in the daily briefings!

Completely agree with this.

Cork Boy 53 · 06-05-2020 03:46PM

partyguinness wrote: »

I think with hind sight there is a distinct possibility that history will say we overreacted.

Who are the we you are referring to here? The Irish government? The NPHET? The majority of the worlds` governments who have implemented restrictions?

hopalongcass · 06-05-2020 03:47PM

Deleted User wrote: »

New Zealand were not holding us up as an example of what not to do, we were being used an an example of what they would have had to do if things had not come under control, and may still have to do if they are not vigilant.

And don't claim to know anything about my motivations for posting here, I have my own mind, apply my own critical thinking and form my own opinions which align with different sides on different issues.

And I will never not be proud to be Irish, no matter who is in power or what decisions are been taken, so don't let the door hit you on the way out.

If you are under the age of 30 i think you can get a pass for being naive and not having seen the full effects of the last bailout,if you are 40 and above you are a shill plain and simple life is going good for you,so you are oblivious to the suffering that was on this island this last 10 years and are cheering on for a doubling down of the last one.

You can be proud to have sold your Irish brothers and sisters down the river all you want,i for one am not proud of what went on here and is being done again,even though i had no part in it.

You may or may not had a part in the last one but you are playing your part in this one,so claim all the Irishness you want while you are condemning our future generations to debt slavery,but i know who the real Irish are.

Relaxation of restrictions Part II

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