Relaxation of restrictions Part II

ixoy · 05-05-2020 05:26PM

hmmm wrote: »

It depends on whether you are happy to accept the substantial risk that we will have to lockdown again within a few weeks by opening too fast, or whether you'd prefer us to be reasonably confident that things can go back to relative normality. Leaving aside the gambling with the health of people and hospital staff.

Some posters seem to want to continue the lockdown as is indefinitely, which is what I would take issue with. I've repeatedly been for a gradual re-opening. Now it's fair to ask whether the government plan is a good one or not and using other countries plans, and their successes, it's perfectly valid to ask: "Why them and why not us" and hope for an answer.

05-05-2020 05:26PM

hmmm wrote: »

It depends on whether you are happy to accept the substantial risk that we will have to lockdown again within a few weeks by opening too fast, or whether you'd prefer us to be reasonably confident that things can go back to relative normality. Leaving aside the gambling with the health of people and hospital staff.

Not a chance we’ll lockdown again.
We’re crippled financially. We simply couldn’t afford to.

We need to move forward now and stop this nonsense.

Way more people will die in the recession. And that recession is getting worse every minute.

fatalll · 05-05-2020 05:27PM

dashdoll wrote: »

I do think teachers grt a bad rap in general from the public and do great work. However, part of me also thinka teachers that are not working should be getting 350e covid payment until summer holidays (and then revert to full pay as they usually get) the same as everyone else who is out of work. I know its impossible to police this as some schools and teachers seem to be doing lots of eotk whereas I have a family member who is a primary teacher and she is doing no work at all with her pupils and hasnt since this started. I'm assuming this differs for each school but seems a bit unfair.

I think your family member is the one in the wrong, not the teachers that are working. She/He should be doing some work for their students. they will fall back in school, its very irresponsible that she/he is not at least doing something.

marno21 · 05-05-2020 05:29PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The big problem for our finances is not the lock down, it is that key markets are closed to us.

I'm not concerned at all regarding the measures.

The most damaging thing for our economy is allowing the virus to run riot.

This will only lead to another lock down and far greater damage reputationally.

It's better to lance the boil now and keep the foot down.

This is naive. No one is suggesting to let the virus run riot. People are suggesting reopening some activities in the economy, which have proportionally low risk and higher economic reward.

Keeping massive hardware stores closed with the Government paying their wages is absolute lunacy with the combination of positive post lockdown signs from European countries and the absolutely cataclysmic figures about Government finances coming out day by day.

The economic disaster unfolding at the minute is going to end up being a far bigger long term issue than the current outbreak in Ireland.

Rodin · 05-05-2020 05:31PM

fatalll wrote: »

I think your family member is the one in the wrong, not the teachers that are working. She/He should be doing some work for their students. they will fall back in school, its very irresponsible that she/he is not at least doing something.

Your family member is why people have a problem with many teachers. I suppose a check by their headteacher is too much to ask.
Some of the best terms and conditions in the public sector but yet still always complaining.

normanoffside · 05-05-2020 05:32PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

A necessary and inevitable side effect, lock down or no lock down.

We need to keep going and push down the rate of infection relentlessly. This will give us a stronger base for the next phase of the resurgence of the virus and we may be able to avoid the worst re-impositions on society.

So you want a certain destruction of the economy in order to avoid a possible second wave (with no evidence that there will be a second wave or how deadly it will be if it does come).

It's like shooting off my entire foot for fear that one of my toes might get infected.

fatalll · 05-05-2020 05:33PM

Rodin wrote: »

Your family member is why people have a problem with many teachers. I suppose a check by their headteacher is too much to ask.
Some of the best terms and conditions in the public sector but yet still always complaining.

Its not my family member! :-) its poster I was replying to

Ginger n Lemon · 05-05-2020 05:35PM

normanoffside wrote: »

So you want a certain destruction of the economy in order to avoid a possible second wave (with no evidence that there will be a second wave or how deadly it will be if it does come).

It's like shooting off my entire foot for fear that one of my toes might get infected.

This is the funniest analogy I've heard for whats going on.

JoeA3 · 05-05-2020 05:37PM

normanoffside wrote: »

So you want a certain destruction of the economy in order to avoid a possible second wave (with no evidence that there will be a second wave or how deadly it will be if it does come).

It's like shooting off my entire foot for fear that one of my toes might get infected.

lol... a perfect analogy to that absolute nonsense.

ceadaoin. · 05-05-2020 05:41PM

The people who are going on about this second wave are basing it on the Spanish flu pandemic right? But any other comparisons to the flu are instantly shot down by the same posters. So is it comparable to a flu or not? I don't think a devastating second wave is inevitable. SARS is the most comparable virus and that didn't have a resurgence after it burned out. I saw an article yesterday about a hopeful sign that covid19 is starting to weaken, just like SARS did but obviously its early days.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-8286181/Coronavirus-mutation-one-sample-signal-getting-weaker.html

Kermit.de.frog · 05-05-2020 05:47PM

The economy is going to be hit really badly regardless of a lock down.

Markets around the world are suffering. We are an open economy, we don't avoid that.

What would be even worse is having to go through the exact same thing again in a couple of months time.

What we have here is a small group of posters who are clearly vulnerable, desperate for change. I understand that.

It does not change the facts.

We need to keep the rate of infection down as low as possible to give us the best platform later on. Then we can avoid having to implement some of the measures again.

This will lead to a much quicker recovery.

Birdie Num Num · 05-05-2020 05:49PM

road_high wrote: »

Economic conversations really stepped up today. Regina Doherty on the Covid payment -“this can only be a short term measure, not sustainable long term”.... I don’t think that could be any clearer?

As another poster pointed out. It was a 12 week measure. We’re about 7 maybe 8 weeks into that. It was always a temporary measure whilst hoping that the virus would pass or at least have the minimal effect on the health of the nation and the population would do their part in keeping the spread to a minimum too.

Quantum Erasure · 05-05-2020 05:51PM

normanoffside wrote: »

So you want a certain destruction of the economy in order to avoid a possible second wave (with no evidence that there will be a second wave or how deadly it will be if it does come).

you're getting mixed up between a second separate wave, and a resurgence of the disease once restrictions are lifted

dashdoll · 05-05-2020 05:54PM

fatalll wrote: »

I think your family member is the one in the wrong, not the teachers that are working. She/He should be doing some work for their students. they will fall back in school, its very irresponsible that she/he is not at least doing something.

I agree completely.

KrustyUCC · 05-05-2020 05:56PM

211 cases is encouraging

Hopefully we can keep the cases on a downward trend

05-05-2020 05:57PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The economy is going to be hit really badly regardless of a lock down.

Markets around the world are suffering. We are an open economy, we don't avoid that.

What would be even worse is having to go through the exact same thing again in a couple of months time.

What we have here is a small group of posters who are clearly vulnerable, desperate for change. I understand that.

It does not change the facts.

We need to keep the rate of infection down as low as possible to give us the best platform later on. Then we can avoid having to implement some of the measures again.

This will lead to a much quicker recovery.

1200 posts in the Coronavirus forum, I actually think you're enjoying this.

Nermal · 05-05-2020 05:58PM

Herd immunity may be achievable at much lower than 60% infection rate, perhaps as low as 10-20%:

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/herd-immunity-may-only-need-a-10-per-cent-infection-rate/amp

Speedy vaccine development is not a foregone conclusion:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/funds-will-vaccine-coronavirus-really-possible/

Tick tock, tick tock.

Never too late to admit we made the wrong decision.

na1 · 05-05-2020 05:59PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The economy is going to be hit really badly regardless of a lock down.

Markets around the world are suffering. We are an open economy, we don't avoid that.

What would be even worse is having to go through the exact same thing again in a couple of months time.

Well if you don't produce anything, then regardless of "global markets" you're in trouble.
If you do produce the product and this product is needed, then you're OK, regardless of the global markets.

Ginger n Lemon · 05-05-2020 05:59PM

KrustyUCC wrote: »

211 cases is encouraging

Hopefully we can keep the cases on a downward trend

I am unsure whether thats what we want. Say we get down our daily cases to 10. And then phase 2 kicks in and our daily cases will be 40. Did we just have a fourfold increase in cases?

I am fearful Leo will shut us down in that case and we will spend another 3 months on these forums all the way up to October :S

Kermit.de.frog · 05-05-2020 06:00PM

Nermal wrote: »

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/herd-immunity-may-only-need-a-10-per-cent-infection-rate/amp

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/funds-will-vaccine-coronavirus-really-possible/

Tick tock, tick tock.

Never too late to admit we made the wrong decision.

The Spectator and the Torygraph - lol

693 deaths today in the UK and 4,404 new cases.

Quantum Erasure · 05-05-2020 06:04PM

AdamD wrote: »

1200 posts in the Coronavirus forum, I actually think you're enjoying this.

i presume thats an ironic thanks by Ginger n Lemon? 2 day old account with over 100 posts here...

LiquidZeb · 05-05-2020 06:07PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The Spectator and the Torygraph - lol

693 deaths today in the UK and 4,404 new cases.

Did you actually read the articles or did you snobbishly dismiss them. The 'Torygraph' is a paper of record. Maybe stick to the Beano for your news.

KrustyUCC · 05-05-2020 06:07PM

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

I am unsure whether thats what we want. Say we get down our daily cases to 10. And then phase 2 kicks in and our daily cases will be 40. Did we just have a fourfold increase in cases?

I am fearful Leo will shut us down in that case and we will spend another 3 months on these forums all the way up to October :S

Hmmm a fair point

They won't move phases unless cases are going down though as they will claim cases are too high

Vicious circle

Cork Boy 53 · 05-05-2020 06:09PM

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

I am unsure whether thats what we want. Say we get down our daily cases to 10. And then phase 2 kicks in and our daily cases will be 40. Did we just have a fourfold increase in cases?

I am fearful Leo will shut us down in that case and we will spend another 3 months on these forums all the way up to October :S

Leo may not be Taoiseach for more than another month or so but regardless I very much doubt that Micheal Martin or Eamon Ryan would go against the NPHET advice.

road_high · 05-05-2020 06:09PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The big problem for our finances is not the lock down, it is that key markets are closed to us.

I'm not concerned at all regarding the measures.

The most damaging thing for our economy is allowing the virus to run riot.

This will only lead to another lock down and far greater damage reputationally.

It's better to lance the boil now and keep the foot down.

Which we have done...now we are prolonging the agony from what i can figure out "just to be safe". Leo and Simon's woke ego's are very much along the lines of "saving lives before money" and no doubt Mr Varadkar is furious not to be a poster child for Covid leadership like his mirror is down in NZ. They are still hoping to pull the "we did better because we care so much" carrot out of the bag. Unnaturally long lockdown seems the simplest route to the that, with a very compliant scared public.

Ginger n Lemon · 05-05-2020 06:09PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The Spectator and the Torygraph - lol

693 deaths today in the UK and 4,404 new cases.

Approx 24,657 people died today from hunger related diseases.

If western economies crash, this figure will sky rocket per day easily to 50,000. We need a healthy economy to be able to contribute and save lives all over the planet not just down the street.

Surely if you worry about UK deaths, you worry about deaths on other continents too?

normanoffside · 05-05-2020 06:10PM

KrustyUCC wrote: »

211 cases is encouraging

Hopefully we can keep the cases on a downward trend

130 of those in care homes.

Nermal · 05-05-2020 06:11PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The Spectator and the Torygraph - lol

Or, if you ever bothered to read heterodox opinions, Dr. Gabriela Gomes of the Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine and David States, chief science officer of Angstrom Bio and Professor of Human Genetics at the University of Michigan.

the kelt · 05-05-2020 06:13PM

https://www.newstalk.com/news/exiting-lockdown-priority-expert-1010107?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1588684645

Makes some sensible points.

Anyone have any idea the current average waiting time for a result when tested?

na1 · 05-05-2020 06:14PM

LiquidZeb wrote: »

Did you actually read the articles or did you snobbishly dismiss them. The 'Torygraph' is a paper of record. Maybe stick to the Beano for your news.

These: new cases, total died... etc - these are mostly irrellevant, they depend on many factors.

I think these figures are actually useless, and just serve some political benefits,
what really do important is the death rate across age group

For example, need to compare:

death rate between 70-80 in the april 2019 (number of cases per 100k of this age group)
death rate between 70-80 in the april 2020 (number of cases per 100k of this age group)

This will give us an actual figures of the danger of COVID.
But do we have this stats?

Relaxation of restrictions Part II

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