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Relaxation of restrictions Part II

Tokyo

Continuation of the "Relaxation of restrictions" from here.

Please note that all mod warnings and threadbans carry through from the previous thread.

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dashdoll

fatalll wrote: »

I think your family member is the one in the wrong, not the teachers that are working. She/He should be doing some work for their students. they will fall back in school, its very irresponsible that she/he is not at least doing something.

I agree completely.

Quantum Erasure

normanoffside wrote: »

So you want a certain destruction of the economy in order to avoid a possible second wave (with no evidence that there will be a second wave or how deadly it will be if it does come).

you're getting mixed up between a second separate wave, and a resurgence of the disease once restrictions are lifted

Birdie Num Num

road_high wrote: »

Economic conversations really stepped up today. Regina Doherty on the Covid payment -“this can only be a short term measure, not sustainable long term”.... I don’t think that could be any clearer?

As another poster pointed out. It was a 12 week measure. We’re about 7 maybe 8 weeks into that. It was always a temporary measure whilst hoping that the virus would pass or at least have the minimal effect on the health of the nation and the population would do their part in keeping the spread to a minimum too.

Kermit.de.frog

The economy is going to be hit really badly regardless of a lock down.

Markets around the world are suffering. We are an open economy, we don't avoid that.

What would be even worse is having to go through the exact same thing again in a couple of months time.

What we have here is a small group of posters who are clearly vulnerable, desperate for change. I understand that.

It does not change the facts.

We need to keep the rate of infection down as low as possible to give us the best platform later on. Then we can avoid having to implement some of the measures again.

This will lead to a much quicker recovery.

ceadaoin.

The people who are going on about this second wave are basing it on the Spanish flu pandemic right? But any other comparisons to the flu are instantly shot down by the same posters. So is it comparable to a flu or not? I don't think a devastating second wave is inevitable. SARS is the most comparable virus and that didn't have a resurgence after it burned out. I saw an article yesterday about a hopeful sign that covid19 is starting to weaken, just like SARS did but obviously its early days.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-8286181/Coronavirus-mutation-one-sample-signal-getting-weaker.html

JoeA3

normanoffside wrote: »

So you want a certain destruction of the economy in order to avoid a possible second wave (with no evidence that there will be a second wave or how deadly it will be if it does come).

It's like shooting off my entire foot for fear that one of my toes might get infected.

lol... a perfect analogy to that absolute nonsense.

Ginger n Lemon

normanoffside wrote: »

So you want a certain destruction of the economy in order to avoid a possible second wave (with no evidence that there will be a second wave or how deadly it will be if it does come).

It's like shooting off my entire foot for fear that one of my toes might get infected.

This is the funniest analogy I've heard for whats going on.

fatalll

Rodin wrote: »

Your family member is why people have a problem with many teachers. I suppose a check by their headteacher is too much to ask.
Some of the best terms and conditions in the public sector but yet still always complaining.

Its not my family member! :-) its poster I was replying to

normanoffside

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

A necessary and inevitable side effect, lock down or no lock down.

We need to keep going and push down the rate of infection relentlessly. This will give us a stronger base for the next phase of the resurgence of the virus and we may be able to avoid the worst re-impositions on society.

So you want a certain destruction of the economy in order to avoid a possible second wave (with no evidence that there will be a second wave or how deadly it will be if it does come).

It's like shooting off my entire foot for fear that one of my toes might get infected.

Rodin

fatalll wrote: »

I think your family member is the one in the wrong, not the teachers that are working. She/He should be doing some work for their students. they will fall back in school, its very irresponsible that she/he is not at least doing something.

Your family member is why people have a problem with many teachers. I suppose a check by their headteacher is too much to ask.
Some of the best terms and conditions in the public sector but yet still always complaining.

marno21

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The big problem for our finances is not the lock down, it is that key markets are closed to us.

I'm not concerned at all regarding the measures.

The most damaging thing for our economy is allowing the virus to run riot.

This will only lead to another lock down and far greater damage reputationally.

It's better to lance the boil now and keep the foot down.

This is naive. No one is suggesting to let the virus run riot. People are suggesting reopening some activities in the economy, which have proportionally low risk and higher economic reward.

Keeping massive hardware stores closed with the Government paying their wages is absolute lunacy with the combination of positive post lockdown signs from European countries and the absolutely cataclysmic figures about Government finances coming out day by day.

The economic disaster unfolding at the minute is going to end up being a far bigger long term issue than the current outbreak in Ireland.

fatalll

dashdoll wrote: »

I do think teachers grt a bad rap in general from the public and do great work. However, part of me also thinka teachers that are not working should be getting 350e covid payment until summer holidays (and then revert to full pay as they usually get) the same as everyone else who is out of work. I know its impossible to police this as some schools and teachers seem to be doing lots of eotk whereas I have a family member who is a primary teacher and she is doing no work at all with her pupils and hasnt since this started. I'm assuming this differs for each school but seems a bit unfair.

I think your family member is the one in the wrong, not the teachers that are working. She/He should be doing some work for their students. they will fall back in school, its very irresponsible that she/he is not at least doing something.

[Deleted User]

hmmm wrote: »

It depends on whether you are happy to accept the substantial risk that we will have to lockdown again within a few weeks by opening too fast, or whether you'd prefer us to be reasonably confident that things can go back to relative normality. Leaving aside the gambling with the health of people and hospital staff.

Not a chance we’ll lockdown again.
We’re crippled financially. We simply couldn’t afford to.

We need to move forward now and stop this nonsense.

Way more people will die in the recession. And that recession is getting worse every minute.

ixoy

hmmm wrote: »

It depends on whether you are happy to accept the substantial risk that we will have to lockdown again within a few weeks by opening too fast, or whether you'd prefer us to be reasonably confident that things can go back to relative normality. Leaving aside the gambling with the health of people and hospital staff.

Some posters seem to want to continue the lockdown as is indefinitely, which is what I would take issue with. I've repeatedly been for a gradual re-opening. Now it's fair to ask whether the government plan is a good one or not and using other countries plans, and their successes, it's perfectly valid to ask: "Why them and why not us" and hope for an answer.

Kermit.de.frog

ixoy wrote: »

It certainly won't give us a stronger financial base if we don't do it right either. The same base that will ultimately finance all the lock-down payments, grants to bootstrap, etc and not to mention the day-to-day running that's required. You get that it has to be paid for right?

The big problem for our finances is not the lock down, it is that key markets are closed to us.

I'm not concerned at all regarding the measures.

The most damaging thing for our economy is allowing the virus to run riot.

This will only lead to another lock down and far greater damage reputationally.

It's better to lance the boil now and keep the foot down.

Ginger n Lemon

hmmm wrote: »

It depends on whether you are happy to accept the substantial risk that we will have to lockdown again within a few weeks by opening too fast, or whether you'd prefer us to be reasonably confident that things can go back to relative normality. Leaving aside the gambling with the health of people and hospital staff.

Well, average person will have a 99.64% chance to live according to official scientific studies conducted in a very credible country that is Germany. Is it a gamble worth taking?

German virologist: Covid-19 is less deadly than feared

Quote:
a representative sample population within Germany was tested and examined in great detail to determine what percentage had already been infected with Covid-19.

The headline result is that 15% of that population was infected, which implies an Infection Fatality Rate of 0.36%. This would put him somewhat in the middle of the previous experts we have spoken to. Professor Streeck was keen to point out, however, that he still believes this is a conservative estimate, and thinks it may be closer to 0.24-0.26% and may come down further still as we know more. He published the higher number to err on the side of caution: “it is more important to have the most conservative estimate and see the virus as more dangerous than it is,” he said.

Rodin

easypazz wrote: »

We also share a land border with the country with the most deaths in Europe. 500000 of our citizens live in Northern Ireland.

Are there 1 million Irish passport holders in mainland UK (remember they all got them for Brexit)

Might we see an influx of Irish passport holders from the UK due to us having eased restrictions before them.

The land border is shared only with N.Ireland which has a lower death rate than the Republic.

The UK figures are skewed towards London just as Ireland's are skewed towards Dublin.

uli84

Just received job posting to my mailbox, well, they’ll need a lot more of these

hmmm

ixoy wrote: »

It certainly won't give us a stronger financial base if we don't do it right either. The same base that will ultimately finance all the lock-down payments, grants to bootstrap, etc and not to mention the day-to-day running that's required. You get that it has to be paid for right?

It depends on whether you are happy to accept the substantial risk that we will have to lockdown again within a few weeks by opening too fast, or whether you'd prefer us to be reasonably confident that things can go back to relative normality. Leaving aside the gambling with the health of people and hospital staff.

ELM327

road_high wrote: »

Economic conversations really stepped up today. Regina Doherty on the Covid payment -“this can only be a short term measure, not sustainable long term”.... I don’t think that could be any clearer?

I think everyone knows that.
12 weeks was the initial timeframe

Article
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/coronavirus-payments-unsustainable-warns-doherty-as-over-70s-advised-to-avoid-shops-1.4245289

road_high

Economic conversations really stepped up today. Regina Doherty on the Covid payment -“this can only be a short term measure, not sustainable long term”.... I don’t think that could be any clearer?

dashdoll

CruelSummer wrote: »

Everytime there's economic trouble, people in the private sector come for teachers. Pick up a form and apply for a job in Education. Easy peasy trying to organise daily activities and education remotely for classes, while minding and teaching ones own children. I'm working in Education and I'm dying to get back to work. I think this lockdown is madness and I cannot stand the way children and young people have been treated in this whole situation. It's turning out they're not even the 'super-spreaders' they were made out to be, just picking up infections off parents.
I'm sick of the dis-respect from people towards teachers, I personally find parents who post such remarks rude and obnoxious, and whose children have zero respect or life skills themselves. It doesn't do you or your child any favours and gives them a bad name...

I do think teachers grt a bad rap in general from the public and do great work. However, part of me also thinka teachers that are not working should be getting 350e covid payment until summer holidays (and then revert to full pay as they usually get) the same as everyone else who is out of work. I know its impossible to police this as some schools and teachers seem to be doing lots of eotk whereas I have a family member who is a primary teacher and she is doing no work at all with her pupils and hasnt since this started. I'm assuming this differs for each school but seems a bit unfair.

bettyoleary

CruelSummer wrote: »

A few things came to my attention yesterday that seem to be glossed over a little too quickly here..
1. A case has come to light in France dating all the way back to December 27th 2019..if this is the case - person in hospital wards, no PPE, isolation procedures, etc - it stands to reason it was all over France within weeks if it is as infectious as claimed...it also begs the question - how long has Covid 19 been around, and what is the true level of infection in populations and death rate? Was France's peak weeks ago?
France is an EU country, with many flights to Ireland...do the maths. All hospitals need to re-examine cases as far back as last October so we can all get a clear picture.
2. If Ireland's lockdown is so much more 'successful' than the U.K., why are they re-opening schools, etc. before us - on a phased basis. What exactly are NPHET playing at here, and who is their advice coming from? I think the New Zealand Prime Minister likes to praise herself a lot - but she makes a fair point re Ireland's lockdown being painfully slow to come out of.. Joe Duffy said earlier Spain are pushing FORWARD their re-opening as they've had no surge. Neither have Denmark...why is this data not being applied to Ireland?
3. The sooner we get a government the better - but if they don't act fast and start lifting this unnecessary lockdown, they'll have no money and no economy to manage. Paschal & co. better not start with the poor mouth worst recession, tax hikes, etc. talk - because I want to go back to work and earn a living and I am not willing to pay for this unnecessary catastrophe.
4. When did we as a population decide it is ok to treat children and young people the way we currently are. Children cannot leave a 2km zone for weeks, now a measly 5km. They cannot play and interact with friends - screen interactions are not a substitute for young children, teenagers and young people are being vilified for sitting in a park sunning themselves...while staying in groups 2 metres apart...has anyone thought of the consequences this lockdown is going to have on them long-term...nearly 6 months of formal education missed on top of it. Pensioners avoiding and acting strangely around children on walks, they will pick up on it and it's not right.
5. Over the course of history - where did any government implement a policy to save 80+ year olds, while putting the rest of their fit and healthy populations inside and out of work - destroying income, productivity, mental & physical well-being. Yes some people are at risk, they need to take pre-cautions. This is stating the obvious to me...
6. How can Ireland afford to donate millions to a Global Bill Gates Vaccine initiative - why were the public not consulted about this?

It has been very hard for children and young people. But, I have noticed they appear to have more sense and compassion than a lot of older people around this issue. They worry about older people and their grandparents and Id hazard a guess that they wouldn't be sitting on a crammed plane without any safety measures unlike the middle aged men on the Aer Lingus flight, ask them.

ixoy

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

We need to keep going and push down the rate of infection relentlessly. This will give us a stronger base for the next phase of the resurgence of the virus and we may be able to avoid the worst re-impositions on society.

It certainly won't give us a stronger financial base if we don't do it right either. The same base that will ultimately finance all the lock-down payments, grants to bootstrap, etc and not to mention the day-to-day running that's required. You get that it has to be paid for right?

ceadaoin.

Here is a link to the German study. Very interesting. Even the transmission rate within the same household is way lower than thought.

https://www.uni-bonn.de/neues/111-2020

Pdf of the study which is in English

https://www.ukbonn.de/C12582D3002FD21D/vwLookupDownloads/Streeck_et_al_Infection_fatality_rate_of_SARS_CoV_2_infection2.pdf/%24FILE/Streeck_et_al_Infection_fatality_rate_of_SARS_CoV_2_infection2.pdf

Ginger n Lemon

Deleted User wrote: »

If we look back on this in a years time and it is clear that the death rate is down at that kind of level, there needs to be some serious questioning of the scientists leading this charge. There is an increasing amount of research showing similar outcomes to this, and yet it is not being taken into account at all in the strategies for coming months

Well reality is, UK government knew this is the real mortality. And were going to do herd immunity. But then Imperial college came out with a model that said 500,000 people will die if UK govt do nothing. Media put the pressure on and the rest is history.

Lets re wind 10 years ago, Imperial college comes out with a model and says 65,000 people in UK will die of Swine flu. 392 people died with Swine Flu.

We will see how UK get on, but so far 0.04% of their population has died due to covid. 5 months in. 0.04% vs 0.26% German virologist expects, you could say UK haven't done that bad, and its the numbers speaking, factual numbers.

lord quackinton

road_high wrote: »

The figures are sobering. The speed and suddenness of the shortfall is stark.

As it’s the size and speed of the contraction which will hammer us this time and make 2008 and it’s aftermath look like a hiccup

uli84

facehugger99 wrote: »

We have likely condemned thousands of healthy people to an early grave. Health budgets will be slashed for years to come. Screenings, operations, ability to purchase the latest drugs and treatments; all either lost or severely compromised.

That’s what worries me the most..

Kermit.de.frog

road_high wrote: »

The figures are sobering. The speed and suddenness of the shortfall is stark.

A necessary and inevitable side effect, lock down or no lock down.

We need to keep going and push down the rate of infection relentlessly. This will give us a stronger base for the next phase of the resurgence of the virus and we may be able to avoid the worst re-impositions on society.

hmmm

lord quackinton wrote: »

If we had not locked down we would have had 2500 deaths max

You've plucked that figure out of the air.

How many people long term unemployed would you consider unacceptable before removing restrictions
500k 750k 1million

I don't think customers will go back to pubs or shops if they think a dangerous virus is in circulation, I'm not sure why you think simply removing restrictions will cause everything to spring back to how it was. I also don't think employees should be expected to return to jobs where they are potentially going to be exposed to a disease with unknown risks to them and their families.

The economic impact doesn't go away until we have control of the virus. Simply ignoring it and rushing to reopen is more than likely going to extend the economic pain.