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Fianna Fail on 14%

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13567…23

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    #62
    nigeldaniel
    Registered Users Posts: 1,375 ✭✭✭nigeldaniel


    Polls are about as reliable as a heatwave at Christmas.

    Dan.



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    #63
    Edgware
    Registered Users Posts: 5,875 ✭✭✭Edgware


    is_that_so wrote: »
    They are not stopping anyone else trying to form an alternative. The numbers are not there for a coherent alternative. That would require all the Independents to every hue to back Mary Lou. It's all well and good to demand it but you need to be mindful of how quickly such a setup would exhaust a seriously limited talent pool. For where we are at stability is fundamental, preferable with people in-situ who have actual government experience.
    The numbers are there but the P.B.P. etc don't trust S.F. anymore than F.G.and F.F. do.
    Don't feed the crocodile


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    #64
    Eric Cartman
    Registered Users Posts: 26,282 ✭✭✭✭Eric Cartman


    blindside88 wrote: »
    As a FF member I can see Mr Martin being ousted as leader. I believe if a coalition proposal with FG goes to the grassroots for a vote it will not pass. I have made it clear to my local representatives that if the grass roots are not given a vote on this coalition that I will leave the party. I would imagine I wouldn’t be alone in that decision. FF can bounce back under fresh leadership.

    Theres no way they'll give the members a vote for exactly that reason. Id say a lot of members will leave. FF have a huge rural following, the greens will cause more members to leave than FG.


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    #65
    blinding
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 7,466 ✭✭✭blinding


    Eric Cartman wrote: »
    Theres no way they'll give the members a vote for exactly that reason. Id say a lot of members will leave. FF have a huge rural following, the greens will cause more members to leave than FG.
    Weirdly the Greens will destroy Rural Ireland because of their Mad Green Policies.

    The Greens won’t be happy until Rural Ireland is completely de-populated ! ! !


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    #66
    Shefwedfan
    Closed Accounts Posts: 18,958 ✭✭✭✭Shefwedfan


    The only poll that counts is the one in Feb....


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    #67
    Shefwedfan
    Closed Accounts Posts: 18,958 ✭✭✭✭Shefwedfan


    blinding wrote: »
    Weirdly the Greens will destroy Rural Ireland because of their Mad Green Policies.

    The Greens won’t be happy until Rural Ireland is completely de-populated ! ! !

    I didn’t see that in the green manifesto? Maybe I read the wrong one


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    #68
    FrancieBrady
    Registered Users Posts: 67,316 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    The only party serious about government is the one led by a desperate man. FF - Martin is so desperate to be Taoiseach the party nor the country matters.
    The Greens and FG are just pretending to be serious or looking for a valid reason to walk away.


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    #69
    Shefwedfan
    Closed Accounts Posts: 18,958 ✭✭✭✭Shefwedfan


    blindside88 wrote: »
    As a FF member I can see Mr Martin being ousted as leader. I believe if a coalition proposal with FG goes to the grassroots for a vote it will not pass. I have made it clear to my local representatives that if the grass roots are not given a vote on this coalition that I will leave the party. I would imagine I wouldn’t be alone in that decision. FF can bounce back under fresh leadership.

    Martin been in power hit the FF vote, I think he will get Taoiseach but I do think he will be on the way out soon....FF are not happy with him, I know I’m not

    As you say, a change and I expect some voters will return, especially as SF haven’t really done anything to keep the switch voters...


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    #70
    ruwithme
    Registered Users Posts: 1,183 ✭✭✭ruwithme


    FF have absolutely wasted the last 4 years standing by Micheal Martin .

    he should have being turned over after 2016 election. spent, done and finished.

    bit like ff if they wait for another election to arrive with him in charge.


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    #71
    igCorcaigh
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 11,192 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh


    Just can't fathom how people can switch votes like this.

    Do they think on a day to day basis of who looks good?

    I don't know. I vote on terms of my political values. And it's still hard to find the closest party.

    So, FG get support because of the handling of the terrible pandemic? But no memory of the previous housing crisis etc?

    I just don't know how people can use their vote like this. Seems very fickle to me.


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    #72
    LuasSimon
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,208 ✭✭✭LuasSimon


    IAMAMORON wrote: »
    You will need to go through it constituency by constituency, but you will see definite patterns emerging, The most obvious one is Sinn Féin transfers going to other left wing groups or independents. You will also notice how FG or FF do not transfer well together, the same applies to FF and SF. There will be exceptions but as a rule they don't. FF voters tended to either vote FF or switch to SF. What was particularly evident is the lack of attraction between SF voters and FF. Very few SF votes transferred to FF, hence the swing within the nationalist republican vote.

    Left wing groups in contrast do not necessarily transfer as well as you would imagine. A lot of left wing groups do not support the nationalistic ideology of Sinn Féin. This can be represented in votes. However such mindsets won't vote FG or FF either, they will tend to transfer to other random independents.

    Transfer voting and the mechanics of it have and will become very important in Irish politics as it is diversifying going forward.

    There is no official publishing of complete results from the State as yet, there will be. I found this on line and you can check summaries with any of the national papers. But if you want to examine national transfers you will need to either wait for a full publication or contact each constituency.

    This analysis is of pre election party candidates ( no results )

    https://www.tcd.ie/Political_Science/people/michael_gallagher/Election2020.php

    Results summary ( no transfer voting analysis)

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Irish_general_election

    Irish Times Analysis ( comprehensive but still lacks a proper analysis of transfers)

    https://www.irishtimes.com/election2020/results-hub

    Looking at some of the transfers in the last election quite a share of FF votes went to Sinn Fein , there’s more of a common gene pool there than the carry on of Michael Martin would have you believe , a very unpopular leader of FF going by today’s poll


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    #73
    Shefwedfan
    Closed Accounts Posts: 18,958 ✭✭✭✭Shefwedfan


    igCorcaigh wrote: »
    Just can't fathom how people can switch votes like this.

    Do they think on a day to day basis of who looks good?

    I don't know. I vote on terms of my political values. And it's still hard to find the closest party.

    So, FG get support because of the handling of the terrible pandemic? But no memory of the previous housing crisis etc?

    I just don't know how people can use their vote like this. Seems very fickle to me.

    It’s not a vote, it’s a nothing poll....did you get asked to vote in this poll? I didn’t

    It’s a waste of time, they only become interesting leading up to an election...they are just running now as they have f**k all else to write about....virus or......f**k it lads nothing else so let’s do an old poll

    It’s like Father Ted and lets have another mass


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    #74
    IAMAMORON
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 9,078 ✭✭✭IAMAMORON


    LuasSimon wrote: »
    Looking at some of the transfers in the last election quite a share of FF votes went to Sinn Fein , there’s more of a common gene pool there than the carry on of Michael Martin would have you believe , a very unpopular leader of FF going by today’s poll

    Which transfers?


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    #75
    Leonard Hofstadter
    Registered Users Posts: 5,540 ✭✭✭Leonard Hofstadter


    Eric Cartman wrote: »
    Theres no way they'll give the members a vote for exactly that reason. Id say a lot of members will leave. FF have a huge rural following, the greens will cause more members to leave than FG.

    I don't think you'll find much love for the Green party in Fine Gael either. Even going in with Fianna Fáil isn't especially popular, some branches (Cork in particular) are quite hostile to the idea but I think that part will get over the line, that's much easier to sell than giving the Greens what they want.

    I honestly don't see how there can be a Programme for Government agreed which keeps the membership of the three parties happy. Most of the younger Greens are mad left wing types that would nearly be better suited to Sinn Féin, completely different to the more pragmatic ones like Eamon Ryan (and I'm certainly no fan of him).

    Already, the Greens are acting as though they 'won' the election (for all the delusion of the Shinners, at least they actually did win the highest FPV) with the way they're approaching negotiating a Programme for Government, but what they seem to have forgotten is that they're on 1/6th the combined FG/FF vote, and that 93% of voters didn't vote for them.

    I personally hope we have another election, or that FG opt out as opposed to selling their souls just so the leadership can keep the Mercs (sorry, EV fridge freezers if the nutty Greens get their way) and perks for another few years.


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    #76
    Muahahaha
    Registered Users Posts: 19,617 ✭✭✭✭Muahahaha


    blindside88 wrote: »
    As a FF member I can see Mr Martin being ousted as leader. I believe if a coalition proposal with FG goes to the grassroots for a vote it will not pass. I have made it clear to my local representatives that if the grass roots are not given a vote on this coalition that I will leave the party. I would imagine I wouldn’t be alone in that decision. FF can bounce back under fresh leadership.

    Was just looking at PP odds for next FF leader
    Dara Calleary 5/2
    Jim o'Callaghan 5/2
    Michael McGrath 4/1

    Id say Jim o'Callaghan is a banker there at 5/2, out of the three of them he strikes me as the most politically astute. Calleary is a charisma free zone and McGrath doesnt exude any leadership qualities. I'd nearly back Big Jim as it looks like free money to me but it could be a fair wait for a pay out if Michael gets his turn as Taoiseach.

    Anyway that poll by the SBP is a bit of a shocker for FF. Its obviously just a single poll and has a +/- of 3% so they could be sitting on anywhere between 11% and 17%. But if you're Michael Martin looking at that a fresh election is a frightening prospect, better to get into the safety of government now


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    #77
    Eric Cartman
    Registered Users Posts: 26,282 ✭✭✭✭Eric Cartman


    Leonard Hofstadter wrote: »
    I don't think you'll find much love for the Green party in Fine Gael either. Even going in with Fianna Fáil isn't especially popular, some branches (Cork in particular) are quite hostile to the idea but I think that part will get over the line, that's much easier to sell than giving the Greens what they want.

    I honestly don't see how there can be a Programme for Government agreed which keeps the membership of the three parties happy. Most of the younger Greens are mad left wing types that would nearly be better suited to Sinn Féin, completely different to the more pragmatic ones like Eamon Ryan (and I'm certainly no fan of him).

    Already, the Greens are acting as though they 'won' the election (for all the delusion of the Shinners, at least they actually did win the highest FPV) with the way they're approaching negotiating a Programme for Government, but what they seem to have forgotten is that they're on 1/6th the combined FG/FF vote, and that 93% of voters didn't vote for them.

    I personally hope we have another election, or that FG opt out as opposed to selling their souls just so the leadership can keep the Mercs (sorry, EV fridge freezers if the nutty Greens get their way) and perks for another few years.

    +1 , I don't understand how anyone, as a FF or FG member could read the likes of saoirse mchugh's column in the journal and willingly vote to get into government with a party that put its name behind her.


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    #78
    Muahahaha
    Registered Users Posts: 19,617 ✭✭✭✭Muahahaha


    Jensen Sweet Prodigy wrote: »
    I both like and dislike SF. I don't think I'm that unusual. I just don't see that polarisation in the people around me, apart from a very vocal minority of ardent FG supporters. I saw it in the past, but not any more. The people vocally opposed to the notion of SF stand out as exceptional now I think. Certainly, I do not see any evidence of it among traditional FF voters. And I know someone who canvassed for FG the last two elections, but voted SF this time.

    Nail on the head there, there has been a sizeable shift in the last decade as to how the public sees SF. It began back at the 2011 Presidential election when many non-SF voters voted for Martin McGuinness. Gerry Adams finally retiring was another catalyst as it broke with the past and then the most recent election was yet more evidence- SF outpolled FG and FF in every single age category from 18 to 65. At the start of the last decade nobody would have predicted SF ever being in government, at the beginning of this one everyone reaslises its only a matter of time. Thats quite a shift in the space of 10 years.

    The only people who are not getting this new reality are the ardent FG party hacks, many of whom are the most vocal on here. They're the type of people who check under the bed for Provos before they got to sleep at night but are really just a noisy minority now. I'd argue that if you asked most FG voters if they were against coalition with SF most wouldnt be bothered and would be pragmatic and say just get on with it.


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    #79
    The Bishop Basher
    Registered Users Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭The Bishop Basher


    I’m another one of the non existent 74%.

    Gave SF my second preference this year after the SD candidate. They were the 2 strongest candidates by a mile and there was no way I was voting for FFG.

    I’m not a member of SF and I have no connection with them or loyalty to them. I don’t see them as toxic. Inexperienced, yes. But toxic, no. A couple of elderly relatives would hold that view but they’re very much the exception in my circle.

    The toxicity of SF is something that may have existed In the past and with good reason but it is now nothing more then a figment of Leo’s imagination, reinforced over and over again by a subservient Irish media.

    Leo’s tweet of #notanormalparty after the election says it all. He’s either a democrat or he’s not and with regard to SF he has yet to act like one.

    This approach will backfire in the end.


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    #80
    Hamsterchops
    Registered Users Posts: 3,135 ✭✭✭Hamsterchops


    LuasSimon wrote: »
    Michael Martin is certainly driving the party in to the ground, his hatred of nationalists has driven many voters out of the party to Sinn Fein. He comes across as a very bitter man on TV (The Arlene Foster of the south ) , Should he and whats left of FF just merge into Fine Gael at this stage.

    Micheal Martin hatred of Nationalists, WTF :rolleyes:

    You have your wires crossed young man, actually you haven't a clue what you're talking about.


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    #81
    markodaly
    Registered Users Posts: 14,054 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    blinding wrote: »
    Going in to coalition with the celebrators of the Black and Tans / RIC / Dublin Metropolitan Police is hardly a Patriotic thing to do ! ! !

    I guess the patriotic thing to do is post up links to the Irish Far-Right?


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    #82
    blinding
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 7,466 ✭✭✭blinding


    Hamsterchops wrote: »
    Micheal Martin hatred of Nationalists, WTF :rolleyes:

    You have your wires crossed young man, actually you haven't a clue what you're talking about.
    Michaél Martin in action about Sovereignity. Selling his Country for 13 Pieces of Silver.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=akkPu-FJyiA&t=67s&frags=pl%2Cwn


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    #83
    blinding
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 7,466 ✭✭✭blinding


    markodaly wrote: »
    I guess the patriotic thing to do is post up links to the Irish Far-Right?
    Going in to coalition with the party that was going to celebrate these;Black and Tans / RIC / Dublin Metropolitan Police; is not Patriotic


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    #84
    markodaly
    Registered Users Posts: 14,054 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    blinding wrote: »
    Michaél Martin in action about Sovereignity. Selling his Country for 13 Pieces of Silver.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=akkPu-FJyiA&t=67s&frags=pl%2Cwn

    Yes, you already posted that link, to 'The National Party' YouTube Page and nowhere does it show MM selling the country by the way.


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    #85
    blinding
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 7,466 ✭✭✭blinding


    markodaly wrote: »
    Yes, you already posted that link, to 'The National Party' YouTube Page and nowhere does it show MM selling the country by the way.
    He is selling the Sovereignty of Ireland and the Irish People for 13 pieces of Eu Silver and of course 13 Pats on the Head. Look at that Video from 1 minute 5 seconds and you see a Traitor Selling his Country.

    Hardly surprising from Ffg = Traitors All.

    Where is the Irish Far Right = Is it on the Isle of Man ?;)


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    #86
    markodaly
    Registered Users Posts: 14,054 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    blinding wrote: »
    He is selling the Sovereignty of Ireland and the Irish People for 13 pieces of Eu Silver and of course 13 Pats on the Head. Look at that Video from 1 minute 5 seconds and you see a Traitor Selling his Country.

    Hardly surprising from Ffg = Traitors All.

    Where is the Irish Far Right = Is it on the Isle of Man ?;)

    I did look at the video and what you claim it shows, is not what it actually shows.

    If you want to support the NP, that is fine, but at least own it.


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    #87
    blinding
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 7,466 ✭✭✭blinding


    Everything For Sale from Ffg; Irish Sovereignty ( Country and Irish People ) going for a Song.

    Roll Up , Roll Up, Roll Up.


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    #88
    markodaly
    Registered Users Posts: 14,054 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    blinding wrote: »
    Everything For Sale from Ffg; Irish Sovereignty ( Country and Irish People ) going for a Song.

    Roll Up , Roll Up, Roll Up.

    Who is buying?


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    #89
    blinding
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 7,466 ✭✭✭blinding


    markodaly wrote: »
    Who is buying?
    The Most Glorious Eu.

    Can you not see who Michaél Martin is on his knees to as he sells the Sovereignty of Ireland and the Irish People. Are you intentionally not observant ? ?:eek:


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    #90
    markodaly
    Registered Users Posts: 14,054 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    blinding wrote: »
    The Most Glorious Eu.

    Are we not part of the EU? Are we buying ourselves?
    Can you not see who Michaél Martin is on his knees to as he sells the Sovereignty of Ireland and the Irish People. Are you intentionally not observant ? ?:eek:

    He made a speech, that was it. He didnt sell anyone or anything.


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    #91
    blinding
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 7,466 ✭✭✭blinding


    markodaly wrote: »
    Are we not part of the EU? Are we buying ourselves?



    He made a speech, that was it. He didnt sell anyone or anything.
    The Republic of Ireland will do as ordered by the Eu. The Eu only has to threaten Ireland about its membership of the Eu and the Irish quisling politicians will immediately do as ordered. Sovereignty Sold.

    You even see some of the TDs squirm in their seats as they realise what the FF Traitor is saying.

    The Ffg selling of Irish sovereignty did not work out to well for them at the last General Election. Perhaps the Irish people are waking up as they did after the Executions of the Easter Rising Leaders in 1916. Eventually Irish people Wake Up ! Thankfully.


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