Relaxation of restrictions Part II

lawrencesummers · 03-05-2020 08:20AM

snowcat wrote: »

This lockdown is a bit of a joke really. I see people flouting the restrictions everyday and the Gardai dont seem to have no interest in enforcing it. You can do basically whatever you want as long as you have the right answer in case you meet a checkpoint.

What you see and what you think you see can be two different things.

The vast vast majority of people are following the guidelines, just because a tiny portion of people are not, or you think they are not doesn’t justify it for anyone else.

jackboy · 03-05-2020 08:28AM

lawrencesummers wrote: »

Comparisons with 1918 are a pointless. We didn’t have anything like todays medicine back then, the world was still 20 years away from penicillin, Scarlet fever, TB and measles were rampant. Childbirth had staggering mortality rates. There were no GP’s no pharmacies, underlying conditions were all undiagnosed, Clean water was non existent, people lived in far more cramped and unhygienic conditions.

Over 100’years later The world is a far far far different place medically and socially.

There are far more large cities now with the issues that you mention compared to 100 years ago. Yes, there are great resources to help the richest 1% now. These resources can easily be overrun. Just look at Italy to see what can happen in a well resourced country.

yosemitesam1 · 03-05-2020 08:37AM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Waves are the typical evolution.

The Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy in the US has the 3 scenarios outlined

Even JP Morgan has the scenario outline for it's clients

The outlook this year is not good and those who reopen too soon will have the more difficult time reimposing the measures to re-contain it.

We don't want to be in that nightmare.

But sure keep the fingers in your ears, lalalalala, you have your belief and not science.

Something resembling the slow burn scenario is what would have most likely occurred with zero intervention.

A big difference between covid and flu is that the flu gets easier and easier to find as the epidemic progresses. The total number of flu like symptoms increases but the percentage of those that are actually flu also increases.

Compare that to covid where the percentage testing positive is fairly constant and only varies when selection criteria varies.
This indicates that after moving through the most at risk populations (elderly with pre-existing conditions), it's not able to rapidly increase. It can still spread but not exponentially like is assumed.

lawrencesummers · 03-05-2020 08:38AM

jackboy wrote: »

There are far more large cities now with the issues that you mention compared to 100 years ago. Yes, there are great resources to help the richest 1% now. These resources can easily be overrun. Just look at Italy to see what can happen in a well resourced country.

The worlds population has increased massively.

But the average house size has Increased while the average number of people per house has decreased, so more of us are alive but living in bigger spaces with less people.

I don’t know the correlation between population - density - and disease spreading, but I’m fairly sure that medicine has had a greater impact on people’s health than population density has on spreading disease.

As far as the 1% thing goes I don’t know what you mean, the 1918 had a 1% as well, but now everybody In the developed world has access to good medicine, not just a self declared doctor putting leeches on you to suck blood.

jackboy · 03-05-2020 08:48AM

lawrencesummers wrote: »

As far as the 1% thing goes I don’t know what you mean, the 1918 had a 1% as well, but now everybody In the developed world has access to good medicine, not just a self declared doctor putting leeches on you to suck blood.

Italy showed us that a relatively small amount of infected people in a population can quickly overrun the most advanced modern health service.

There are so many highly populated cities in developing countries already with extreme healthcare issues. This virus has the potential to cause huge damage in these cities.

uli84 · 03-05-2020 08:52AM

France has decided to extend a health emergency by two months until 24 July, but still plans to lift parts of its lockdown on 11 May (including reopening primary schools).

That aside, Anyone knows if Spain (or any other country) has that nonsense 2/5 km restriction at the moment?

lawrencesummers · 03-05-2020 08:58AM

jackboy wrote: »

Italy showed us that a relatively small amount of infected people in a population can quickly overrun the most advanced modern health service.

There are so many highly populated cities in developing countries already with extreme healthcare issues. This virus has the potential to cause huge damage in these cities.

I don’t see what that has to do with talk of the 1%.

Italy has made massive mistakes in dealing with this, the people have paid the price for it and their country will economically pay the price for a long time.

drunkmonkey · 03-05-2020 09:03AM

ceadaoin. wrote: »

Growing deaths from other illnesses is already happening even with lockdowns and measures in place, and not because the health services are overrun.

Have you any evidence to back that up, I can't find information on other deaths, should be around 80/90 on a average day so should be up around 120+ a day consistently if extra people are dying from Covid.
While we're in the business of doing daily reports on Covid we should also be reporting the others for balance.

jackboy · 03-05-2020 09:08AM

lawrencesummers wrote: »

I don’t see what that has to do with talk of the 1%.

Italy has made massive mistakes in dealing with this, the people have paid the price for it and their country will economically pay the price for a long time.

I meant 1% of the world has access to a modern health system which won’t apply to the rest of the world. Italy did make mistakes but once the number of people infected reaches Italy’s level (which was not very high) the modern health system will be overrun and not much use.

lawrencesummers · 03-05-2020 09:15AM

jackboy wrote: »

I meant 1% of the world has access to a modern health system which won’t apply to the rest of the world. Italy did make mistakes but once the number of people infected reaches Italy’s level (which was not very high) the modern health system will be overrun and not much use.

What are you talking about???? You couldn’t be more wrong on that figure!!! It’s more like 50%

jackboy · 03-05-2020 09:19AM

lawrencesummers wrote: »

What are you talking about???? You couldn’t be more wrong on that figure!!! It’s more like 50%

Nowhere near 50%. Worse in a big outbreak. We can’t even get PPE.

Gynoid · 03-05-2020 09:20AM

SNNUS wrote: »

I think the brats are those who think they can Netflix and chill for a year and return to work and life as nothing happened. The Govt payments will be scaled back soon , no economy = no livelihoods.. But yeah sit back and chill for a year dude ✌

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_income

The pandemic has brought a lot of externals into focus.
Among them many people are waking up to the fact that previously they were spending almost every hour of the day on work, including long hours commuting and putting their children in creches. One thing I have heard quite a lot in my circle is that the children are loving it, mainly because they have their parents around.

Our idea of work is more than a tad warped. A lot of what keeps us on hamster wheels can charitably be called bull**** jobs. Or framed another way there is a LOT of work that could be easily done from home in far less time.

Plus we are seeing with this pandemic how poorly paid labour is at the foundation of many of the aspects of life we take for granted. Those harvesting our food crops are migrants. Those processing meat in our oft lauded meat export industry are usually from other parts of Europe, paid minimally to do horrible work, with no sick pay or benefits so that disease will cluster in their workplaces.

In the future automation and technology will continue to eliminate jobs. Wholescale. Work will be backing up the machine in many cases. We are seeing in the pandemic how backing up the machine can be humanely done from home in many cases, greatly reducing road traffic, environmental load, systems stresses, human stress. Some resist this truth because they like to see the sweat on the labourers brow, an old fashioned industrial model hoiked into the modern bums on chairs 9 to 5 5 day week office scenario.

People speak of the Swedish non lock down model but rarely mention how very many people who could do so did work from home prior to covid, and 90% do now in the biggest Swedish companies.

I linked to wiki page on Universal Basic Income at the top. Instead of sneering at those on the pandemic payment maybe broaden your mind and horizons. Maybe it is an opportunity to change. Make UBI a way forward rather than stigmatising welfare. There has always been the billions and trillions to bail out global corporations, banks, bond holders, the richest elite. There has always been money for devastating wars and resource grabbing. Think just how much human generated wealth goes into the manufacture of weapons designed to kill and maim distant usyally poor humans elsewhere. There has been massive wealth transfer to the top of the pyramid in the past 12 years, massive. These people at the very top pay extraordinarily little tax. They just own more and more of the planet. The land. The ores. The ports. The peoples preferably very cheap labour. They would like to own the very water we depend on.
Time to stop the modern feudalism.
(PS I am not pandemic payment just to fend off that reflex contempt from those who like to sneer at people who have been laid off, receive payment and yet who dare to also commit the mortal sin of being nervous of the virus).

rusty the athlete · 03-05-2020 09:21AM

It's good to see some common sense at last from our policymakers regarding the over 70s. Despite repeated castigation from the lock-em up fanatics on this board I have maintained throughout that locking up fit and healthy over 70s does more harm to their physical and psychological welbeing than the non-existing benefits of being banged up. The fact the directive was largely ignored was a great credit to those who were able to use their common sense and break house arrest. It remains now to be seen where and on whom the lock-em up fanatics now direct their vitriolic and hysterical attacks.

lord quackinton · 03-05-2020 09:22AM

My lockdown is over but I am still careful with washing my hands and have no problem with social distancing at shops and banks
I Just believe that if a company can fly cheap labour into pick fruit I can go for a walk in my local woods

The reason I lost faith in this government and Holohan and the lockdown is simple
I don’t see why we are being treated like children, we are not being told the facts
Why can’t we know age and location of all deaths?
Why will the government not inform people of the economic realities that are coming? And those who have lost their job permanently have a right to know how the government will handle them long term unemployed.
And why does the media not ask these questions?
Surely everyone here can agree that we have the right to be told what is happening
The full minutes to all NPHET and government meetings that are making decisions on this lockdown should be online for all to see

Gynoid · 03-05-2020 09:29AM

I have seen the phrase "my lockdown is over" a few times now. 2020s way of announcing I have a big dick.

drunkmonkey · 03-05-2020 09:36AM

_Kaiser_ · 03-05-2020 09:40AM

It looks as though dissent is forming not just among the general public, but among the politicians :

https://www.independent.ie/world-news/coronavirus/whos-in-charge-governments-relationship-with-nphet-is-straining-at-the-seams-39176591.html

Minister after minister made the case for beginning to reopen the country, some more forcefully than others, with many arguing for the relaxation of cocooning for the elderly. "There is a bit of a mood now which says we are going to have to look after the economy," said a minister afterwards.

One government insider wondered whether Sweden's controversial herd immunity strategy may have been a wiser approach. "We've killed our economy and they haven't. When the inquiry happens into this whole period, I think a lot of people will say: 'Were no other considerations brought to bear other than public health?'"

Just as many are, rightly, asking here

Business Minister Heather Humphreys said yesterday: "If we find the coronavirus is abating considerably, well there's no reason why these dates can't be accelerated."

One of the very rare occasions I find myself in complete agreement with her

And on Holohan's unofficial elevation to national policy maker :

"There is a really big reluctance to publicly challenge what he has to say - but in the meetings that we have they are saying things which go beyond the pleadings," said a Cabinet minister afterwards.

"I think there is a bit of a mood change - that he [Dr Holohan] has got too much power and he is using it too strictly."

Another Cabinet minister said: "I don't accept that they're all gods and they have all the answers, especially when they cocked up over the nursing homes."

There's a lot in it but it's well worth reading the whole thing.

It should also put to bed the notion from some that the many people expressing valid concerns in this thread are a selfish minority.

03-05-2020 09:47AM

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

It looks as though dissent is forming not just among the general public, but among the politicians :

https://www.independent.ie/world-news/coronavirus/whos-in-charge-governments-relationship-with-nphet-is-straining-at-the-seams-39176591.html

It should also put to bed the notion from some that the many people expressing valid concerns in this thread are a selfish minority.

Many thanks for that! The tide is definitely turning, people are not sheep and its good to see questions being asked at higher levels.

sterz · 03-05-2020 09:49AM

lord quackinton wrote: »

My lockdown is over but I am still careful with washing my hands and have no problem with social distancing at shops and banks
I Just believe that if a company can fly cheap labour into pick fruit I can go for a walk in my local woods

Did you delete your other post where you mentioned all the other things you were doing, like driving 90km to see a friend, amongst other things?

the kelt · 03-05-2020 09:49AM

Tell me how wrote: »

You got a plan.

For the last couple of weeks people have been saying 'I'm fine with restrictions, as long as they tell us what the plan is'. They did, and while most people were watching him read his notes last night, some one was moving the goal posts.

While I'm at it, not aimed at you in particular Gg35, but for others, a couple weeks ago, Simon Harris was ripped to shreds for having a brain freeze when speaking in an official capacity but in a less formal setting. Last night, Leo ensured that that didn't happen, and guess what, more complaining.

Saw one prominent Twitter commentator say today that the only thing different between Trump and Varadkar is a 30 year age gap. Ffs, I am starting to see many peoples true motivations being laid bare in how they are reacting to a government finally seemingly acting in the interest of the people. They didn't necessarily want a government doing the right thing, they wanted it to be their people in government.

And once again, here is my disclaimer before I am accused as being a mouthpiece. I have never voted for a FG candidate in my life.

I’m one of those who was critical of the lack of a plan. I thought the plan was good apart from one kind of crucial caveat. Albeit it’s super conservative compared to almost everywhere else that have all apparently handled this worse than us.

But we all see the plan, the various stages etc etc and the gist if the plan is hitting numbers. You know how we have constantly being told about the numbers, the numbers are not good enough etc etc.

So anyone got any idea about what the numbers are, I mean we can guess they entail icu capacity, deaths, new cases, testing ability etc etc.

I mean the fact of the matter is we can be told in 2 weeks, sorry numbers aren’t good enough and on you go, what numbers? What is good enough?

Or die we just listen to our cmo give another few vague answers with no accountability on their side for their failings?

_Kaiser_ · 03-05-2020 09:51AM

Perhaps the most concerning thing is right at the end of the above article:

This weekend there are growing fears across the Government that major decisions on massive public spending measures have been made without a paper trail being developed in departments as happens during normal times. "There is a lot of tension about that," a well-placed source said.
.
.
.

This wouldn't be the first time there was a lack of documentation on a government's response to a major crisis. When a review is eventually carried out into how the State responded to the Covid-19 crisis, it will almost certainly find shortcomings in the record-keeping for the monumental and costly decisions that were taken. Ministers and officials will argue it was a crisis where they had to move fast.

But for those who remember the bailout years this is a familiar feeling. "It will be a bit like the banking inquiry," one warned ominously.

.... And we all remember how THAT turned out.

Gynoid · 03-05-2020 10:02AM

I think the biggus dickus lockdown over people should be free to do as they wish. Really. Just do it.
But I never want to read or have to listen to their redemption stories a la self pitying recovered alcoholics apologising to the people they have wounded and expecting forgiveness if any of them ever bring the virus to the vulnerable relatives of the people they drive 100km to have a stupid natter with.

_Kaiser_ · 03-05-2020 10:14AM

Gynoid wrote: »

I think the biggus dickus lockdown over people should be free to do as they wish. Really. Just do it.
But I never want to read or have to listen to their redemption stories a la self pitying recovered alcoholics apologising to the people they have wounded and expecting forgiveness if any of them ever bring the virus to the vulnerable relatives of the people they drive 100km to have a stupid natter with.

This post here shows exactly why reasoned debate is impossible in the age of social media.

I don't agree with something/someone, so must resort to name-calling and insults and attempt to ignore/dismiss what was actually said in favour of what I think/wish they said, with some emotive "think of the children" style hyperbole thrown in to validate myself

It's childish, it's unhelpful, it's transparent.

NO-ONE that I have seen post here has denied that this virus is dangerous, or that precautions and steps needed - and still need - to be taken. No-one has denied that the most vulnerable to this need to be protected.

But there's more to consider than just that - thankfully - small minority of people, who can and will absolutely be protected regardless. There's the wellbeing of everyone else, which covers more than just medical needs, and it's those needs that are being neglected in posts like the above.

Not to mention the health and well-being of the country itself by the way.

Twitter and Facebook has a lot to answer for with the role they've played in reducing debates and issues to abrasive polarising "you're with us or you're against us" nonsense.

lawrencesummers · 03-05-2020 10:14AM

Gynoid wrote: »

I think the biggus dickus lockdown over people should be free to do as they wish. Really. Just do it.
But I never want to read or have to listen to their redemption stories a la self pitying recovered alcoholics apologising to the people they have wounded and expecting forgiveness if any of them ever bring the virus to the vulnerable relatives of the people they drive 100km to have a stupid natter with.

That won’t happen.

People who live in a self centered denial about the realities of this pandemic won’t have to face the consequences of certainty that they have caused harm to others, the reasons for the lockdown are the invisibility of the disease, so they will never actually be confronted with certainty that they were the cause of anyone getting infected. Those living in Ignorant self centred denial can stay living in it.

I wonder though, how many of the ‘biggus dickus’’ were on here objecting to Cheltenham taking place a few weeks back when that Narrative suited their own agenda then.

iamwhoiam · 03-05-2020 10:18AM

Tell me how wrote: »

You got a plan.

For the last couple of weeks people have been saying 'I'm fine with restrictions, as long as they tell us what the plan is'. They did, and while most people were watching him read his notes last night, some one was moving the goal posts.

While I'm at it, not aimed at you in particular Gg35, but for others, a couple weeks ago, Simon Harris was ripped to shreds for having a brain freeze when speaking in an official capacity but in a less formal setting. Last night, Leo ensured that that didn't happen, and guess what, more complaining.

Saw one prominent Twitter commentator say today that the only thing different between Trump and Varadkar is a 30 year age gap. Ffs, I am starting to see many peoples true motivations being laid bare in how they are reacting to a government finally seemingly acting in the interest of the people. They didn't necessarily want a government doing the right thing, they wanted it to be their people in government.

And once again, here is my disclaimer before I am accused as being a mouthpiece. I have never voted for a FG candidate in my life.

I was one of the posters frustrated that we seemed to have no plan .I watched on Friday and was dreading another night of worry and anxiety that we would get no plan .I was surprised and pleased that at very least the over 70 could get out and have a walk and feel the air and the open spaces . I was pleased a plan was in place and that at least I saw a chink of light and some hope of one day seeing my family again .

I have unfortunately lost some faith in Holahan as the moment he was asked how low the numbers should be so the restrictions could be lifted his answer was " As low as possible " That is not an answer as it was obvious he could move the goal posts if he gave no definitive number
I also think that NPHET would have left the over 70 indoors for another few weeks if it wasnt for pressure from some TD's .That would have been a huge mistake in my opinion .

I have friends and siblings who are just 70 or a few years over, fit and active and healthy and probably healthier than some 40-50 year olds
It was a very difficult 6 weeks for them all helped only by good weather and all have gardens .Many did not have that luxury and struggled to stay indoors
Let us just hope that the majority can now be sensible and do as asked and use common sense when seeing others and keep this wretched virus under control

the kelt · 03-05-2020 10:27AM

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

This post here shows exactly why reasoned debate is impossible in the age of social media.

I don't agree with something/someone, so must resort to name-calling and insults and attempt to ignore/dismiss what was actually said in favour of what I think/wish they said, with some emotive "think of the children" style hyperbole thrown in to validate myself

It's childish, it's unhelpful, it's transparent.

NO-ONE that I have seen post here has denied that this virus is dangerous, or that precautions and steps needed - and still need - to be taken. No-one has denied that the most vulnerable to this need to be protected.

But there's more to consider than just that - thankfully - small minority of people, who can and will absolutely be protected regardless. There's the wellbeing of everyone else, which covers more than just medical needs, and it's those needs that are being neglected in posts like the above.

Not to mention the health and well-being of the country itself by the way.

Twitter and Facebook has a lot to answer for with the role they've played in reducing debates and issues to abrasive polarising "you're with us or you're against us" nonsense.

Generally that tends to happen later in the evening and nights on this thread.

When you get the Super emphatic virtue signallers telling ye anyone who strays outside the 2km zone to talk to a relative through their window are going to be responsible for hundreds of deaths whilst simultaneously rounding on and attacking a single mother who admits she’s struggling and is depressive telling her she’s a bad parent who wants attention.

Admit you’ve broken the 2k rule and your a murderer and admit you might be struggling, depressive etc and your an attention seeker who didn’t live through a war thank god and here’s a prescription of Netflix for you now eff off you attention seeker.

gozunda · 03-05-2020 10:29AM

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

It looks as though dissent is forming not just among the general public, but among the politicians :
https://www.independent.ie/world-news/coronavirus/whos-in-charge-governments-relationship-with-nphet-is-straining-at-the-seams-39176591.html
Just as many are, rightly, asking here
One of the very rare occasions I find myself in complete agreement with her
And on Holohan's unofficial elevation to national policy maker :
There's a lot in it but it's well worth reading the whole thing. It should also put to bed the notion from some that the many people expressing valid concerns in this thread are a selfish minority.

Dissent? You really dont believe there is significant political posturing going by those who want to make hay? The usual suspects screaming that they dont like the solutions whilst taking fook all risk in doing so? Yeah we've have plenty of those alright

I never thought shinner bots really existed. Reading this thread I've now changed my mind.

And that bolloxology about Sweden and its lack of restrictions? Guess what - the outbreak is increasingly out of control there and it looks like their economy has taken a dive into the ****ter even twith their lack of public health related restrictions

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/30/coronavirus-sweden-economy-to-contract-as-severely-as-the-rest-of-europe.html

But yes those declaring they are going to do what they like and to hell with anyone else are the very definition of a selfish minority. What's new eh?

rusty the athlete · 03-05-2020 10:31AM

iamwhoiam wrote: »

I was surprised and pleased that at very least the over 70 could get out and have a walk and feel the air and the open spaces .

Many did not have that luxury and struggled to stay indoors

It may be unkind to say it, but more fool them for suffering. Their isolation was a result of believing the so called "expert" advice that they were fed with. One would hope that on reaching 70 years old one would have gained sufficient lifetime experiences to critically examine what they are being fed with and to use their own judgement to make sensible, rational decisions. Unnecessarily banging oneself up for six weeks would indicate that many have learned absolutely nothing from their longevity.

Gynoid · 03-05-2020 10:34AM

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

This post here shows exactly why reasoned debate is impossible in the age of social media.

I don't agree with something/someone, so must resort to name-calling and insults and attempt to ignore/dismiss what was actually said in favour of what I think/wish they said, with some emotive "think of the children" style hyperbole thrown in to validate myself

It's childish, it's unhelpful, it's transparent.

NO-ONE that I have seen post here has denied that this virus is dangerous, or that precautions and steps needed - and still need - to be taken. No-one has denied that the most vulnerable to this need to be protected.

But there's more to consider than just that - thankfully - small minority of people, who can and will absolutely be protected regardless. There's the wellbeing of everyone else, which covers more than just medical needs, and it's those needs that are being neglected in posts like the above.

Not to mention the health and well-being of the country itself by the way.

Twitter and Facebook has a lot to answer for with the role they've played in reducing debates and issues to abrasive polarising "you're with us or you're against us" nonsense.

Wrong. Won't someone please think of the economy is the childish reaction in the face of a pandemic. Look at history. Look at how the species has dealt with pandemics. There has always been this tension between those arguing wealth over health and those arguing health over wealth. One difference between the two sides is that the cautious are MUCH less likely to cause death to the vulnerable you claim to care for. And by the way this vulnerable is not a small number. 13% of people are over 70 in Ireland. Undiagnosed and diagnosed hypertension accounts for 35 to 40% of all adults. About half of adults are overweight. About 10 to 15% have diabetes. 1 in 5 children have asthma. And that is without counting the huge numbers of people who live with those vulnerable ones. That is no tiny number. But I do think lockdown over people should just rack off and do their thing. AND I don't want to hear their sob stories after. That is not hyperbole from me. That is just true.

_Kaiser_ · 03-05-2020 10:35AM

gozunda wrote: »

Dissent? You really dont believe there is significant political posturing going by those who want to make hay? The usual suspects screaming that they dont like the solutions whilst taking fook all risk in doing so? Yeah we've have plenty of those alright

I never thought shinner bots really existed. Reading this thread I've now changed my mind.

And that bolloxology about Sweden and its lack of restrictions? Guess what - the outbreak is increasingly out of control there and it looks like their economy has taken a dive into the ****ter even twith their lack of public health related restrictions

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/30/coronavirus-sweden-economy-to-contract-as-severely-as-the-rest-of-europe.html

But yes those declaring they are going to do what they like and to hell with anyone else are the very definition of a selfish minority. What's new eh?

This entire post makes no sense, but especially how you've somehow connected "Shinnerbots" to what I posted above.

Never voted SF, don't support SF, think they'd be disastrous for a small open FDI dependent country like ours - BUT they do have a useful role in holding the Big 2 to account.

Maybe stop looking for Reds under the bed and read what people are ACTUALLY saying/posting?

Relaxation of restrictions Part II

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