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Relaxation of restrictions Part II

Tokyo

Continuation of the "Relaxation of restrictions" from here.

Please note that all mod warnings and threadbans carry through from the previous thread.

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lord quackinton

My lockdown is over but I am still careful with washing my hands and have no problem with social distancing at shops and banks
I Just believe that if a company can fly cheap labour into pick fruit I can go for a walk in my local woods

The reason I lost faith in this government and Holohan and the lockdown is simple
I don’t see why we are being treated like children, we are not being told the facts
Why can’t we know age and location of all deaths?
Why will the government not inform people of the economic realities that are coming? And those who have lost their job permanently have a right to know how the government will handle them long term unemployed.
And why does the media not ask these questions?
Surely everyone here can agree that we have the right to be told what is happening
The full minutes to all NPHET and government meetings that are making decisions on this lockdown should be online for all to see

rusty the athlete

It's good to see some common sense at last from our policymakers regarding the over 70s. Despite repeated castigation from the lock-em up fanatics on this board I have maintained throughout that locking up fit and healthy over 70s does more harm to their physical and psychological welbeing than the non-existing benefits of being banged up. The fact the directive was largely ignored was a great credit to those who were able to use their common sense and break house arrest. It remains now to be seen where and on whom the lock-em up fanatics now direct their vitriolic and hysterical attacks.

Gynoid

SNNUS wrote: »

I think the brats are those who think they can Netflix and chill for a year and return to work and life as nothing happened. The Govt payments will be scaled back soon , no economy = no livelihoods.. But yeah sit back and chill for a year dude ✌

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_income

The pandemic has brought a lot of externals into focus.
Among them many people are waking up to the fact that previously they were spending almost every hour of the day on work, including long hours commuting and putting their children in creches. One thing I have heard quite a lot in my circle is that the children are loving it, mainly because they have their parents around.

Our idea of work is more than a tad warped. A lot of what keeps us on hamster wheels can charitably be called bull**** jobs. Or framed another way there is a LOT of work that could be easily done from home in far less time.

Plus we are seeing with this pandemic how poorly paid labour is at the foundation of many of the aspects of life we take for granted. Those harvesting our food crops are migrants. Those processing meat in our oft lauded meat export industry are usually from other parts of Europe, paid minimally to do horrible work, with no sick pay or benefits so that disease will cluster in their workplaces.

In the future automation and technology will continue to eliminate jobs. Wholescale. Work will be backing up the machine in many cases. We are seeing in the pandemic how backing up the machine can be humanely done from home in many cases, greatly reducing road traffic, environmental load, systems stresses, human stress. Some resist this truth because they like to see the sweat on the labourers brow, an old fashioned industrial model hoiked into the modern bums on chairs 9 to 5 5 day week office scenario.

People speak of the Swedish non lock down model but rarely mention how very many people who could do so did work from home prior to covid, and 90% do now in the biggest Swedish companies.

I linked to wiki page on Universal Basic Income at the top. Instead of sneering at those on the pandemic payment maybe broaden your mind and horizons. Maybe it is an opportunity to change. Make UBI a way forward rather than stigmatising welfare. There has always been the billions and trillions to bail out global corporations, banks, bond holders, the richest elite. There has always been money for devastating wars and resource grabbing. Think just how much human generated wealth goes into the manufacture of weapons designed to kill and maim distant usyally poor humans elsewhere. There has been massive wealth transfer to the top of the pyramid in the past 12 years, massive. These people at the very top pay extraordinarily little tax. They just own more and more of the planet. The land. The ores. The ports. The peoples preferably very cheap labour. They would like to own the very water we depend on.
Time to stop the modern feudalism.
(PS I am not pandemic payment just to fend off that reflex contempt from those who like to sneer at people who have been laid off, receive payment and yet who dare to also commit the mortal sin of being nervous of the virus).

jackboy

lawrencesummers wrote: »

What are you talking about???? You couldn’t be more wrong on that figure!!! It’s more like 50%

Nowhere near 50%. Worse in a big outbreak. We can’t even get PPE.

lawrencesummers

jackboy wrote: »

I meant 1% of the world has access to a modern health system which won’t apply to the rest of the world. Italy did make mistakes but once the number of people infected reaches Italy’s level (which was not very high) the modern health system will be overrun and not much use.

What are you talking about???? You couldn’t be more wrong on that figure!!! It’s more like 50%

jackboy

lawrencesummers wrote: »

I don’t see what that has to do with talk of the 1%.

Italy has made massive mistakes in dealing with this, the people have paid the price for it and their country will economically pay the price for a long time.

I meant 1% of the world has access to a modern health system which won’t apply to the rest of the world. Italy did make mistakes but once the number of people infected reaches Italy’s level (which was not very high) the modern health system will be overrun and not much use.

drunkmonkey

ceadaoin. wrote: »

Growing deaths from other illnesses is already happening even with lockdowns and measures in place, and not because the health services are overrun.

Have you any evidence to back that up, I can't find information on other deaths, should be around 80/90 on a average day so should be up around 120+ a day consistently if extra people are dying from Covid.
While we're in the business of doing daily reports on Covid we should also be reporting the others for balance.

lawrencesummers

jackboy wrote: »

Italy showed us that a relatively small amount of infected people in a population can quickly overrun the most advanced modern health service.

There are so many highly populated cities in developing countries already with extreme healthcare issues. This virus has the potential to cause huge damage in these cities.

I don’t see what that has to do with talk of the 1%.

Italy has made massive mistakes in dealing with this, the people have paid the price for it and their country will economically pay the price for a long time.

uli84

France has decided to extend a health emergency by two months until 24 July, but still plans to lift parts of its lockdown on 11 May (including reopening primary schools).

That aside, Anyone knows if Spain (or any other country) has that nonsense 2/5 km restriction at the moment?

jackboy

lawrencesummers wrote: »

As far as the 1% thing goes I don’t know what you mean, the 1918 had a 1% as well, but now everybody In the developed world has access to good medicine, not just a self declared doctor putting leeches on you to suck blood.

Italy showed us that a relatively small amount of infected people in a population can quickly overrun the most advanced modern health service.

There are so many highly populated cities in developing countries already with extreme healthcare issues. This virus has the potential to cause huge damage in these cities.

lawrencesummers

jackboy wrote: »

There are far more large cities now with the issues that you mention compared to 100 years ago. Yes, there are great resources to help the richest 1% now. These resources can easily be overrun. Just look at Italy to see what can happen in a well resourced country.

The worlds population has increased massively.

But the average house size has Increased while the average number of people per house has decreased, so more of us are alive but living in bigger spaces with less people.

I don’t know the correlation between population - density - and disease spreading, but I’m fairly sure that medicine has had a greater impact on people’s health than population density has on spreading disease.

As far as the 1% thing goes I don’t know what you mean, the 1918 had a 1% as well, but now everybody In the developed world has access to good medicine, not just a self declared doctor putting leeches on you to suck blood.

yosemitesam1

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Waves are the typical evolution.

The Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy in the US has the 3 scenarios outlined

Even JP Morgan has the scenario outline for it's clients

The outlook this year is not good and those who reopen too soon will have the more difficult time reimposing the measures to re-contain it.

We don't want to be in that nightmare.

But sure keep the fingers in your ears, lalalalala, you have your belief and not science.

Something resembling the slow burn scenario is what would have most likely occurred with zero intervention.

A big difference between covid and flu is that the flu gets easier and easier to find as the epidemic progresses. The total number of flu like symptoms increases but the percentage of those that are actually flu also increases.

Compare that to covid where the percentage testing positive is fairly constant and only varies when selection criteria varies.
This indicates that after moving through the most at risk populations (elderly with pre-existing conditions), it's not able to rapidly increase. It can still spread but not exponentially like is assumed.

jackboy

lawrencesummers wrote: »

Comparisons with 1918 are a pointless. We didn’t have anything like todays medicine back then, the world was still 20 years away from penicillin, Scarlet fever, TB and measles were rampant. Childbirth had staggering mortality rates. There were no GP’s no pharmacies, underlying conditions were all undiagnosed, Clean water was non existent, people lived in far more cramped and unhygienic conditions.

Over 100’years later The world is a far far far different place medically and socially.

There are far more large cities now with the issues that you mention compared to 100 years ago. Yes, there are great resources to help the richest 1% now. These resources can easily be overrun. Just look at Italy to see what can happen in a well resourced country.

lawrencesummers

snowcat wrote: »

This lockdown is a bit of a joke really. I see people flouting the restrictions everyday and the Gardai dont seem to have no interest in enforcing it. You can do basically whatever you want as long as you have the right answer in case you meet a checkpoint.

What you see and what you think you see can be two different things.

The vast vast majority of people are following the guidelines, just because a tiny portion of people are not, or you think they are not doesn’t justify it for anyone else.

lawrencesummers

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

No country has "beaten" the virus. Restricting it is temporary and it's unknown about how seasonal it may be.

The 1918 Spanish Flu second wave was far worse than the first a couple of months later.

We have been here before

New Zealand has done an excellent job on it, i would go as far as to say they have beaten the virus, if this turn out to just be the opening round of three I have a lot of confidence they will be able to do the same. Same with South Korea.

Comparisons with 1918 are a pointless. We didn’t have anything like todays medicine back then, the world was still 20 years away from penicillin, Scarlet fever, TB and measles were rampant. Childbirth had staggering mortality rates. There were no GP’s no pharmacies, underlying conditions were all undiagnosed, Clean water was non existent, people lived in far more cramped and unhygienic conditions.

Over 100’years later The world is a far far far different place medically and socially.

snowcat

patnor1011 wrote: »

We do have choice. Only about a third of countries imposed such restrictions yet we are being told there is no choice?
I do not know. Our health system has been overrun for quite some time. Miraculously we no longer have these problems? We are kidding ourselves that we can somehow make situation better. Where are those troley counts right now?
Nowhere to be seen as hospitals are suddenly half empty waiting for that covid patients surge which is not materializing. And no, it is not due to "lockdown" because with this halfmeasures with people still allowed to go shopping as they please or "excercising" and tens of thousands still working in "essential services" this is no lockdown.
These restrictions are causing more pain and future suffering than this virus.

This lockdown is a bit of a joke really. I see people flouting the restrictions everyday and the Gardai dont seem to have no interest in enforcing it. You can do basically whatever you want as long as you have the right answer in case you meet a checkpoint.

patnor1011

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

We have no choice.

Don't re-impose measures and the health system is over run within weeks so not only do you have a spiralling COVID death toll but you have growing deaths from other illnesses.

It is far from a pointless exercise. It could not be any more needed.

If we want to avoid that we need to be extremely careful about how we go forward from here.

We do have choice. Only about a third of countries imposed such restrictions yet we are being told there is no choice?
I do not know. Our health system has been overrun for quite some time. Miraculously we no longer have these problems? We are kidding ourselves that we can somehow make situation better. Where are those troley counts right now?
Nowhere to be seen as hospitals are suddenly half empty waiting for that covid patients surge which is not materializing. And no, it is not due to "lockdown" because with this halfmeasures with people still allowed to go shopping as they please or "excercising" and tens of thousands still working in "essential services" this is no lockdown.
These restrictions are causing more pain and future suffering than this virus.

ceadaoin.

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

We have no choice.

Don't re-impose measures and the health system is over run within weeks so not only do you have a spiralling COVID death toll but you have growing deaths from other illnesses.

Growing deaths from other illnesses is already happening even with lockdowns and measures in place, and not because the health services are overrun.

Kermit.de.frog

patnor1011 wrote: »

You can not contain virus unless you order everyone in the house for 2-3 weeks with no exception. None. Then go from house to house and burn those with dead people inside.
Since it cant be done this illusion of a lockdown is pointless excercise.

We have no choice.

Don't re-impose measures and the health system is over run within weeks so not only do you have a spiralling COVID death toll but you have growing deaths from other illnesses.

It is far from a pointless exercise. It could not be any more needed.

If we want to avoid that we need to be extremely careful about how we go forward from here.

Tell me how

Galwayguy35 wrote: »

People have put their lives on hold for weeks now and there was very high compliance with the restrictions and what did we get yesterday from Varadkar?

Absolutely nothing.

You got a plan.

For the last couple of weeks people have been saying 'I'm fine with restrictions, as long as they tell us what the plan is'. They did, and while most people were watching him read his notes last night, some one was moving the goal posts.

While I'm at it, not aimed at you in particular Gg35, but for others, a couple weeks ago, Simon Harris was ripped to shreds for having a brain freeze when speaking in an official capacity but in a less formal setting. Last night, Leo ensured that that didn't happen, and guess what, more complaining.

Saw one prominent Twitter commentator say today that the only thing different between Trump and Varadkar is a 30 year age gap. Ffs, I am starting to see many peoples true motivations being laid bare in how they are reacting to a government finally seemingly acting in the interest of the people. They didn't necessarily want a government doing the right thing, they wanted it to be their people in government.

And once again, here is my disclaimer before I am accused as being a mouthpiece. I have never voted for a FG candidate in my life.

gozunda

SusieBlue wrote: »

The current numbers are a reflection of the complete mismanagement of the nursing home and care facilities around the country by the government. The are not a reflection of the efforts of the majority of Irish people to abide by the rules.
They were concentrating so hard on ensuring no one went more than 2km away from their homes that they completely neglected to properly protect our most vulnerable elderly citizens.
They are using these numbers as a means to enforce the current lockdown when the lockdown has no effect on the outbreak in nursing homes.

Firstly outbreaks in nursing homes / care homes is not solely an Irish problem. Countries such as the UK and Sweden have seen a massive spike of outbreaks in such settings. Yes more could have been done to lock these down - however one of the most basic problems is that people living in care homes etc cannot socially isolate or effectively cocoon from each other or staff members. They are living together in large at risk groups.

Staff and those responsible for provisining travel to and from the wider community into care homes. And It only takes one asymptomatic case for the infection to spread like wildfire in such settings.

And yes the need for restrictions have got everything to do with existing and potential outbreaks in care homes

Infection spreading in the wider community risks being brought into care home settings

People not observing the restrictions also increases the risk to everyone else including those with long term illnesses and the elderly in care homes.

There have been calls to lockdown staff in care homes to help reduce this risk. Will that work. That I dont know tbh.

patnor1011

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Waves are the typical evolution.

The Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy in the US has the 3 scenarios outlined

Even JP Morgan has the scenario outline for it's clients

The outlook this year is not good and those who reopen too soon will have the more difficult time reimposing the measures to re-contain it.

We don't want to be in that nightmare.

But sure keep the fingers in your ears, lalalalala, you have your belief and not science.

You can not contain virus unless you order everyone in the house for 2-3 weeks with no exception. None. Then go from house to house and burn those with dead people inside.
Since it cant be done this illusion of a lockdown is pointless excercise.

Kermit.de.frog

growleaves wrote: »

Wow.

Posters are still retailing extremely-unlikely-but-not-impossible worst-case scare scenarios.

Spanish Flu second wave. No immunity.

When will you stop your lying, emotionalism and spin? Why should the worst case scenarios from history jump up out of nowhere?

The yellow journalism (social media version) continues.

Waves are the typical evolution.

The Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy in the US has the 3 scenarios outlined

EW7Is-qWoAIdzls?format=jpg&name=medium

Even JP Morgan has the scenario outline for it's clients

The outlook this year is not good and those who reopen too soon will have the more difficult time reimposing the measures to re-contain it.

We don't want to be in that nightmare.

But sure keep the fingers in your ears, lalalalala, you have your belief and not science.

growleaves

Wow.

Posters are still retailing extremely-unlikely-but-not-impossible worst-case scare scenarios.

Spanish Flu second wave. No immunity.

When will you stop your lying, emotionalism and spin? Why should the worst case scenarios from history jump up out of nowhere?

The yellow journalism (social media version) continues.

Kermit.de.frog

easypazz wrote: »

The lockdown is done. It failed.

easypazz

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Your analogy is for the people wanting to lift restrictions.

No one else is saying it's over by x, quite the opposite.

The small clique here are obviously in some way exposed perhaps more than others and so it's fair enough for them to be scared and insulting to others. I understand the frustration.

It does not change the facts of the situation and the situation is pretty dire.

But I personally think acceptance rather than denial is the best policy to go with because then you can plan ahead for possibly (but hopefully not) hard times.

With denial comes unpreparedness which is even worse.

The lockdown is done. It failed.

RugbyLad11

bloodless_coup wrote: »

There's definitely not enough good stuff on Netflix to last a year. You'd get through all the half decent stuff in two weeks.

Seems to be a common line thrown out that people who call for an end to lockdown are weak. To me the weak and scared are those who want to curl up in a ball and live in isolation for the foreseeable future.

Exactly! I think the people who want to get on with life are the opposite of weak

Kermit.de.frog

LiquidZeb wrote: »

They do remind me of the lads saying at the start of WWI who said it'd all be over by Christmas. We know what happened then

Your analogy is for the people wanting to lift restrictions.

No one else is saying it's over by x, quite the opposite.

The small clique here are obviously in some way exposed perhaps more than others and so it's fair enough for them to be scared and insulting to others. I understand the frustration.

It does not change the facts of the situation and the situation is pretty dire.

But I personally think acceptance rather than denial is the best policy to go with because then you can plan ahead for possibly (but hopefully not) hard times.

With denial comes unpreparedness which is even worse.

FintanMcluskey

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

No country has "beaten" the virus. Restricting it is temporary and it's unknown about how seasonal it may be.

The 1918 Spanish Flu second wave was far worse than the first a couple of months later.

We have been here before

Are you over the age of 102?

LiquidZeb

road_high wrote: »

That's when the fun starts...posters like this are in still la la land with the delusion we can all sit at home watching Netflix "chillin" and the world will continue on. Seems to be still over 50% of the Irish population stuck here unfortunately for them.

They do remind me of the lads saying at the start of WWI who said it'd all be over by Christmas. We know what happened then