Share Picks 2020

ShineOn7 · 01-05-2020 02:31PM

Jim2007 wrote: »

Trying to time the market, while chasing the crowd... what do you expect?

All around the first world the amateurs are getting aboard for the next ride and guess which shares they want to buy?

Typical arrogance towards newbies Jim. Actually, you show a huge sense of self importance to all around here

I've been reading this subforum since early March and come to the conclusion that not too many people on here like you

Mad_maxx · 01-05-2020 02:48PM

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Typical arrogance towards newbies Jim. Actually, you show a huge sense of self importance to all around here

I've been reading this subforum since early March and come to the conclusion that not too many people on here like you

"arrogance"

Why Jim is as humble as a Buddhist Monk

Umaro · 01-05-2020 03:03PM

Bit disrespectful guys.

Jim taught Warren Buffett everything he knows.

littlemac1980 · 01-05-2020 03:16PM

Mad_maxx wrote: »

"arrogance"

Why Jim is as humble as a Buddhist Monk

Well to be fair he makes a fair point.

The way I look at it is if the man on the street telling you that now is a good time to invest (and the man on the street could be your partner, your postman or you lawyer, or an online forum where their is recent activity and excitement about the possibility to make some good money) then it’s probably too late.

That said, despite the recent positive trends, I think most posters here with experience (I’m not one by the way) have expressed concern with the speed of recovery of stock prices over the last month, so there may yet be another opportunity to get decent stocks at 50% of their peak (perhaps lower even who knows)

I just feel we haven’t felt the full impact of this situation yet (market-wise not society-wide). That’s no huge revelation though, think most agree, it’s as to when it happens and how it happens, that’s crystal ball stuff at this stage with how everything has been happening. Could be today, could be six months from now.

Shedite27 · 01-05-2020 03:31PM

Umaro wrote: »

Bit disrespectful guys.

Jim taught Warren Buffett everything he knows.

After 10 years of using boards, Jim taught me what the Ignore List is for

Johnny_Fontane · 01-05-2020 03:42PM

Remarkable how Paddy Power are not being affected. I'd have to think that they are a big sell.

Stars Merger goes through next week, be interesting to see what happens to the share price.

retalivity · 01-05-2020 04:43PM

Tesla dip starting....

breadmonster · 01-05-2020 04:54PM

retalivity wrote: »

Tesla dip starting....

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1256239815256797184

The boss says its too high, wonder how much he gonna make out of shorting this

Bob Harris · 01-05-2020 04:56PM

retalivity wrote: »

Tesla dip starting....

I was half pissed off I sold before earnings call as I didn't know what they'd come out with. Today lessens the blow!

littlemac1980 · 01-05-2020 05:08PM

breadmonster wrote: »

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1256239815256797184

The boss says its too high, wonder how much he gonna make out of shorting this

Is he deliberately triggering the short restriction?

Mightn’t be the most obvious beneficial step at first glance but perhaps (with more insight into today’s trends as they undoubtedly have) he figured it was better to do that early in the day?

Might insulate against a perceived risk later or Monday?

Jim2007 · 01-05-2020 05:33PM

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Typical arrogance towards newbies Jim. Actually, you show a huge sense of self importance to all around here

I've been reading this subforum since early March and come to the conclusion that not too many people on here like you

You are trying to find shares that are down 50% and looking among the most popular shares that the guys piling in for the next round are likely to buy....

All I did was point out the obvious.....

Lex Luthor · 01-05-2020 05:40PM

surely that comment from EM is illegal?

littlemac1980 · 01-05-2020 06:20PM

Canada has made it official I think. Recession.

[url] https://apple.news/AGu1XrzjoRIaiu89ekZ6rQA[/url]

Dave elle · 01-05-2020 06:40PM

Financials and oil still have a lot of potential, citigroup, wells fargo, Barclays, Suncor, Shell, all not without risk. Maybe a financial or energy etf will provide less risk.

Not touching anything tourism or mass gathering related until they have a vaccine or a solid treatment in place, Airlines, hotels, cinemas, etc. If you don't think they are going to fold it might be a good investment.

Shedite27 · 01-05-2020 08:27PM

Johnny_Fontane wrote: »

Remarkable how Paddy Power are not being affected. I'd have to think that they are a big sell.

Stars Merger goes through next week, be interesting to see what happens to the share price.

Fanduel has been a big winner in the US. That plus the ameircans opening up gambling is a big opportunity for them

hobie21 · 01-05-2020 08:59PM

breadmonster wrote: »

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1256239815256797184

The boss says its too high, wonder how much he gonna make out of shorting this

Accounts are shady and this quarter is gonna be a disaster.

bob mcbob · 02-05-2020 01:13PM

Dave elle wrote: »

Financials and oil still have a lot of potential, citigroup, wells fargo, Barclays, Suncor, Shell, all not without risk. Maybe a financial or energy etf will provide less risk.

Not touching anything tourism or mass gathering related until they have a vaccine or a solid treatment in place, Airlines, hotels, cinemas, etc. If you don't think they are going to fold it might be a good investment.

Is that not a bit illogical - you favour oil but not the big (transport) companies that are one of the biggest users of oil products?

1123heavy · 02-05-2020 01:16PM

would people agree oil storage companies are a good investment? All this oil that has been produced and will continue to be produced going forward, all with very little to no consumption by the consumer (busses, airlines, cars/taxis) ... all this oil will have to be stored somewhere

Shedite27 · 02-05-2020 01:26PM

1123heavy wrote: »

would people agree oil storage companies are a good investment? All this oil that has been produced and will continue to be produced going forward, all with very little to no consumption by the consumer (busses, airlines, cars/taxis) ... all this oil will have to be stored somewhere

This is a relatively short term problem, and all the oil storage companies jumped last week. Missed the rush I'd suggest

voluntary · 02-05-2020 04:43PM

That's the thing all right. The moment some particular branches of economy, whether oil storage, vaccines, work from home solutions, etc are hyped, that's usually the time of their peak market performance. They can keep growing, but the moment the threat pushing their valuations to the moon fades away, the same moment investors start fading away their interest.

Dave elle · 03-05-2020 02:08AM

bob mcbob wrote: »

Is that not a bit illogical - you favour oil but not the big (transport) companies that are one of the biggest users of oil products?

Jet fuel accounts for 12% of oil usage. I am not saying air travel wont return to previous levels, I just don't know which companies will survive or be profitable to own. Airlines are barely producing income, have high debt and fixed expenses. 4 small airlines that I know of are bankrupt, Lufthansa supposedly has a few weeks of money, US airlines and Air France are increasing their debt levels just to survive.

O'Leary might rule the skies after all is said and done

Dave elle · 03-05-2020 02:21AM

Actually I am just after seeing Warren Buffett has confirmed that he sold all his shares in all airlines previously, expect a drop first thing Monday morning.

XMG · 03-05-2020 04:58AM

ShineOn7 wrote: »

This lack of complete stock market meltdown is utter baffling to me too

I have savings I was going to invest in Shares now with a view to not cash out for a minimum of 5 years. But what the hell is going on? It just goes to show you how much of this is completely engineered. We should be seeing drops below that even of 2008

Can the Fed keep throwing money at this all year?

Should I wait another few months?

Shares I'm interested in: (holding for a minimum of 5 years, maybe some for 10)
Amazon (currently soaring for obvious reasons)

Alphabet (Google)

Apple

Facebook

Maybes:
RyanAir (given the current situation, how the hell is this not at 7 Euros or even lower?)

Disney

Berkshire Hathaway class B stock

I'm looking for a share that is down 50% or more on it's January price, but has strong potential to return to well above it's January price by the year 2025

Or .... have I missed the boat on this completely and the time to get in was about 3 or 4 weeks ago?

If you're worried about being late by 3 or 4 weeks over a 5 or 10 year time period maybe this isn't for you?

XMG · 03-05-2020 05:10AM

Dave elle wrote: »

Financials and oil still have a lot of potential, citigroup, wells fargo, Barclays, Suncor, Shell, all not without risk. Maybe a financial or energy etf will provide less risk.

Not touching anything tourism or mass gathering related until they have a vaccine or a solid treatment in place, Airlines, hotels, cinemas, etc. If you don't think they are going to fold it might be a good investment.

Why oil? What makes you bullish on a product that went negative a week or two ago and do you think the cuts in production are going to have an effect? When companies like Shell cut dividends for the first time in 80 years and say things like “We do not expect a recovery of oil prices or demand for our products in the medium term” that's not an investemnt I would even consider at the moment.

Dave elle · 03-05-2020 06:32AM

XMG wrote: »

Why oil? What makes you bullish on a product that went negative a week or two ago and do you think the cuts in production are going to have an effect? When companies like Shell cut dividends for the first time in 80 years and say things like “We do not expect a recovery of oil prices or demand for our products in the medium term” that's not an investemnt I would even consider at the moment.

I am not saying to only invest in oil and finance, I just think both have potential upside.

Oil is at an extreme low price. It dipped lower for a short period in 1998 and in the 1940's sometime. If demand increases within 5 years, its not unreasonable to assume oil price will also increase. That been said nobody can predict coronavirus, Trump, Oil cartel so best to spread your bets.

Not that this means a whole lot, morningstar have rated Shell as a strong buy.

theboringfox · 03-05-2020 12:31PM

It will be interesting to see effect on markets of Buffetts comments on wider market but in particular airlines given he sold out of all of them in full. Would expect big sell off next week.

Bob24 · 03-05-2020 02:16PM

Dave elle wrote: »

Not that this means a whole lot, morningstar have rated Shell as a strong buy.

I’d wait for the dust to settle before buying Shell given the historical 66% dividend cut they just had and which seemed unthinkable just w few minutes before it was announced. I suspect a good number of individual investors and funds will be dumping it as they mostly had it in their portfolio for the unblemished ever-increasing dividend history which got some of them to see Shell dividends as a garanteed annuity (particularly for retirement portfolios).

Not saying it is a bad company to invest in (I actually like it), but the investment proposition just changed significantly and I think share prices might need to adjust lower accordingly.

voluntary · 03-05-2020 03:16PM

OIL is near the buying point, stocks are definitely not. Just my two cents.

bob mcbob · 03-05-2020 05:21PM

Ok what sectors do you think will be worst hit and what sectors could actually be improved by Covid.

For me

worst - cruise liners

best - healthcare (it's a bit wide I know) but I think all governments will want to beef up spending in this area.

Kilboor · 03-05-2020 05:23PM

bob mcbob wrote: »

Ok what sectors do you think will be worst hit and what sectors could actually be improved by Covid.

For me

worst - cruise liners

best - healthcare (it's a bit wide I know) but I think all governments will want to beef up spending in this area.

worst - airlines

best - gaming

Share Picks 2020

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