Covid19 Part XVI- 21,983 in ROI (1,339 deaths) 3,881 in NI (404 deaths)(05/05)Read OP

speckle · 01-05-2020 02:45PM

political analyst wrote: »

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/could-the-lockdown-have-side-effects-no-one-has-considered?fbclid=IwAR26o1sM8Xw3OCGMtzwTRnlVKgmHnIAsBnypAwq4lv54up5UTaCZ1N12MHA

Former consultant pathologist and recently retired pathology professor Dr John Lee wrote that, because SARS-CoV-2 is a single-stranded RNA virus - and thus susceptible to copying errors, some particles will infect people with a less serious form of Covid-19 and that they're more likely to spread it as they move around but also that those with the more severe form are less likely to move around and thus are less likely to infect others. That is the evolutionary effect because the more severe form would fizzle out while the less severe form would spread.

He asks whether those taken to hospital with the more severe form have slightly 'nastier' particles of the virus and thus spread the infection to staff and vulnerable patients there. He thinks the 'nastier' particles are getting an advantage over the milder particles because of this.

He wrote that, despite the lockdown, it may be the case that evolution of the virus is happening anyway.

The problem I can see with that is the asymtomatic spread and the fact that those, with a severe strain still in most cases, seem to have a first intial milder illness that doesnt become severe enough until later. If you noticeably became very ill fast then it might work?

hmmm · 01-05-2020 02:46PM

Strumms wrote: »

This is 100000% accurate, to a tee. We had EVERYTHING, in the way of advantages, low population density and being an island nation and we STILL go and make a bollôcks of it.

We did not "make a bollocks of it". We are doing relatively well. (cue the same spurious stats about death rates between countries).

We are an island with a border down the middle, where one country went for herd immunity. An all-island approach wasn't possible when you have two different strategies.

hmmm · 01-05-2020 02:49PM

Gael23 wrote: »

The team at Oxfoord say they can produce 1 million doses of vaccine per month should it be successful. That would take 5 years just to cover the UK and Ireland

Where did you hear that? They said they may have a million doses ready for emergency use in September.

They're also partnering with Astra Zeneca to scale production if the trials are successful.

gabeeg · 01-05-2020 02:52PM

Gael23 wrote: »

The team at Oxfoord say they can produce 1 million doses of vaccine per month should it be successful. That would take 5 years just to cover the UK and Ireland

I'm pulling this number out of my hole, but say one million doses will cover the most vulnerable in our society and by the time a vaccine is in play a large portion of the population will have already had the virus and hopefully have immunity.

So I'd suggest prioritising the elderly and vulnerable, and then shipping the rest of it to third world and developing nations.

stephenjmcd · 01-05-2020 02:53PM

hmmm wrote: »

Where did you hear that? They said they may have a million doses ready for emergency use in September.

They're also partnering with Astra Zeneca to scale production if the trials are successful.

Presuming poster got it from rte
A manufacturer of a possible CovidD-19 vaccine being developed by British scientists said it may know by the end of May if it can make a million doses a month with a view to building stocks for commercial supply when the vaccine is approved.

Cobra Biologics is one of the firms working to make a potential vaccine known as ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 being developed by scientists at the University of Oxford.

Chief Executive Peter Coleman said the firm is not responsible for proving the efficacy of the vaccine, with those trials being run by the Oxford team, and there was a lot of risk involved in the project.

But he said that if a 200-litre manufacturing run planned for the middle of May were successful, the company would be ready to produce 1 million doses a month

Wibbs · 01-05-2020 02:53PM

aidoh wrote: »

What would be at all risky about leaving the scones on Aunty Marjorie's doorstep and having a little chat with her from the other end of her garden?

If you hate Ireland and it's people so much why don't you move somewhere better?

I hate the creeping smiling incompetence all too bloody common in this culture. The shure it'll be grand mentality, mixed with a fawning towards one's "betters" in authority, while cocking a snook behind its back. Makes for a peaceful and easygoing, if a tad lacklustre kinda place in general, but in crises like this that same attitude is about as much use as tits on a bull and we're seeing the results.

political analyst wrote: »

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/could-the-lockdown-have-side-effects-no-one-has-considered?fbclid=IwAR26o1sM8Xw3OCGMtzwTRnlVKgmHnIAsBnypAwq4lv54up5UTaCZ1N12MHA

Former consultant pathologist and recently retired pathology professor Dr John Lee wrote...

The problem is P media is hungry for anything to print and will wheel out any old expert to fill their pages. That piece is filled with more maybes than is prudent, or likely accurate. And smells like the same kind of expert that was advising the British government to go for "herd immunity". IIRC that particular news outlet was supportive of that. It also sounds like he's running the 1918 flu pandemic theorised trajectory and applying it to this one.

ShayNanigan wrote: »

I'm not sure anymore which rules apply and which do not. There's an impromptu birthday party in my neighbourhood. Relatives of one of my neighbours were just going to pop by and wave from their car to wish one of the kids happy birthday. After a while encouraged by the shouts of "oh gwan now, you can stay a while" they left the car and there's a lovely gaggle of people outside definitely not keeping a distance some of them also popping inside the house now for a cuppa. What part of Skype or Zoom call don't people get?!

In any given population I'd comfortably reckon about a third are damned fools. The only way to reach same is by shock. Being nice won't fire up what braincells they can muster.

Widescreen · 01-05-2020 02:59PM

Actually Australia's figures make our figures look not great at all. Cheltenham and open airports/ferries policy has to be responsible for a large part of our very average performance.

Australia population over 25 million, economy going to start cranking up Monday week!

Cases 6762 Recovered 5720 Died 92

Can't see why they can't throw enough resources at contact tracing, that is practically holding the show up in a big way.

that said, it's a tragic situation and a vaccine is the only way the good old days will return.

01-05-2020 03:04PM

gabeeg wrote: »

I'm pulling this number out of my hole, but say one million doses will cover the most vulnerable in our society and by the time a vaccine is in play a large portion of the population will have already had the virus and hopefully have immunity.

So I'd suggest prioritising the elderly and vulnerable, and then shipping the rest of it to third world and developing nations.

1 million may just about cover the elderly and vulnerable in this country. There are a lot more old people and people with preexisting conditions than you might think. Then add in health workers and 1 million would not go far here at all

Mental Mickey · 01-05-2020 03:04PM

What time is the Government briefing re: update on restrictions on TV at?

Funsterdelux · 01-05-2020 03:05PM

Widescreen wrote: »

Actually Australia's figures make our figures look not great at all. Cheltenham and open airports/ferries policy has to be responsible for a large part of our very average performance.

Australia population over 25 million, economy going to start cranking up Monday week!

Cases 6762 Recovered 5720 Died 92

Can't see why they can't throw enough resources at contact tracing, that is practically holding the show up in a big way.

that said, it's a tragic situation and a vaccine is the only way the good old days will return.

Theres a vast cultural difference between us and Oz.

Its like comparing Fair City with Home And Away.

Wibbs · 01-05-2020 03:05PM

hmmm wrote: »

We did not "make a bollocks of it". We are doing relatively well. (cue the same spurious stats about death rates between countries).

They're not "spurious stats". The Czechs would have to lying about their death figures by a factor of 12 to match ours. The Greeks by a factor of 4. Taiwan, Korea, Hong Kong would have to be telling huge porkies to match us.

We are an island with a border down the middle, where one country went for herd immunity. An all-island approach wasn't possible when you have two different strategies.

This is what I mean... Jesus Christ, the border. Again. Portugal have fewer deaths than Spain. Much fewer. And what do have they between them? A much longer border. The Greeks have four bordering nations. Same for the Czechs, they're completely landlocked, never mind being an island. Taiwan and Hong Kong are right beside ground zero with population densities that would make our heads spin. Funny how they can all make things work with a border. Border my arse. :rolleyes: Just another excuse to add to the pile.

01-05-2020 03:06PM

gabeeg wrote: »

I'm pulling this number out of my hole, but say one million doses will cover the most vulnerable in our society and by the time a vaccine is in play a large portion of the population will have already had the virus and hopefully have immunity.

So I'd suggest prioritising the elderly and vulnerable, and then shipping the rest of it to third world and developing nations.

1 million may just about cover the elderly and vulnerable in this country. There are a lot more old people and people with preexisting conditions than you might think. Then add in health workers and 1 million would not go far here at all

hmmm · 01-05-2020 03:07PM

Deleted User wrote: »

1 million may just about cover the elderly and vulnerable in this country. There are a lot more old people and people with preexisting conditions than you might think. Then add in health workers and 1 million would not go far here at all

I haven't seen the report, but they sound like a relatively small manufacturer. If the vaccine works, I expect they will recruit larger manufacturers.

Ultimately we will have to vaccinate the entire world - billions of doses.

The US is hoping to have 100 million doses of a vaccine (whichever works) by the beginning of 2021, but that will take a huge manufacturing effort.

I think things will change pretty quickly once we even have a limited supply. It will allow us (the world)to vaccinate front line staff, and will allow us to deploy vaccines in hotspots. Even a hundred thousand doses would go a long way towards massively reducing the risk in Ireland.

10000maniacs · 01-05-2020 03:09PM

Strumms wrote: »

This is 100000% accurate, to a tee. We had EVERYTHING, in the way of advantages, low population density and being an island nation and we STILL go and make a bollôcks of it.

You still have the fûckwits saying stuff like.. “ well I want to go and take a bag of scones 5kms to my Aunt Marjorie, she’s on her own and loves scones and I love seeing her so I don’t care “. You don’t care that your behavior could mean that enough people get influenced to do the same, killing scores of people in the process, right ! :rolleyes:

A land of saints and scholars ? That myth is ending with a thump. A land of me feiners, attention seekers and needy selfish fûckwits ! :rolleyes:

Anybody still scratching their heads as to why we got it so bad here when we had everything going for us as an island nation need to look no further than Cheltenham and a few big games at Anfield. These events most likely caused the horrendous clusters in Dublin.

Ms2011 · 01-05-2020 03:11PM

Tandey wrote: »

FBD are giving all their private car insurance customers a €35 One4all voucher.

Allianz giving €30 refund.

is_that_so · 01-05-2020 03:12PM

Mental Mickey wrote: »

What time is the Government briefing re: update on restrictions on TV at?

Sometime after the cabinet meeting at 3.30 finishes so could be closer to tea time, Leo on Late Late tonight.

iguana · 01-05-2020 03:13PM

Wibbs wrote: »

They're not "spurious stats". The Czechs would have to lying about their death figures by a factor of 12 to match ours. The Greeks by a factor of 4. Taiwan, Korea, Hong Kong would have to be telling huge porkies to match us.

This is what I mean... Jesus Christ, the border. Again. Portugal have fewer deaths than Spain. Much fewer. And what do have they between them? A much longer border. The Greeks have four bordering nations. Same for the Czechs, they're completely landlocked, never mind being an island. Taiwan and Hong Kong are right beside ground zero with population densities that would make our heads spin. Funny how they can all make things work with a border. Border my arse. :rolleyes: Just another excuse to add to the pile.

Ah but come on. Look how much better we are doing than the UK and the US!!! And by the US I specifically mean New York which is the worst hit in the world and not Hawaii or Dakota or any of the other states that seem pretty ok so far. As long as we can feel superior to the US and the UK that's all that matters. I mean come on, our national leader is a medical doctor and theirs suggested injecting bleach/caught the virus himself the big eejit! I'm glad I live in Ireland and not New York or London!!! Those countries that are doing significantly better than us don't actually matter, it's not like they even have English as a first language there or anything!!! And we're not sandwiched in the middle of them like we are between the UK and the US. (A pretty open sandwich considering we're a whole massive ocean away from the US and not even directly opposite it.)

Strumms · 01-05-2020 03:14PM

10000maniacs wrote: »

Anybody still scratching their heads as to why we got it so bad here when we had everything going for us as an island nation need to look no further than Cheltenham and a few big games at Anfield. These events most likely caused the horrendous clusters in Dublin.

100%... Probably the start of it but I think subsequent behaviors are AS culpable if not more so.

Bannasidhe · 01-05-2020 03:23PM

Strumms wrote: »

100%... Probably the start of it but I think subsequent behaviors are AS culpable if not more so.

The CMO saying on Mar 11th (or thereabouts) restricting visits to Nursing homes was unnecessary?
The clusterf*ck that is the whole testing/results debacle?
PPE??
Veradker and Harris (maskless) travelling around the place enjoying photo-ops?
Direct Provision?!?!

branie2 · 01-05-2020 03:25PM

speckle wrote: »

Great news for you and your family, you all must have been worried. Wishing your grandmother continued good health.

Thank you, Speckle!

hmmm · 01-05-2020 03:28PM

Bannasidhe wrote: »

The CMO saying on Mar 11th (or thereabouts) restricting visits to Nursing homes was unnecessary?
The clusterf*ck that is the whole testing/results debacle?
PPE??
Veradker and Harris (maskless) travelling around the place enjoying photo-ops?
Direct Provision?!?!

There's been a million individual tasks and difficult decisions required over the past few months, and you're including "Photo ops" in your criticism? People seem pretty happy to know that their Taoiseach and Health Minister are taking an interest in what is going on, unlike say the UK.

This endless negativity is wearing.

Funsterdelux · 01-05-2020 03:40PM

hmmm wrote: »

There's been a million individual tasks and difficult decisions required over the past few months, and you're including "Photo ops" in your criticism? People seem pretty happy to know that their Taoiseach and Health Minister are taking an interest in what is going on, unlike say the UK.

This endless negativity is wearing.

Dont confuse negativity with criticism.

01-05-2020 03:41PM

hmmm wrote: »

There's been a million individual tasks and difficult decisions required over the past few months, and you're including "Photo ops" in your criticism? People seem pretty happy to know that their Taoiseach and Health Minister are taking an interest in what is going on, unlike say the UK.

I’d be a lot happier if they were standing alongside their CMO every evening taking direct questions from the media.

hmmm · 01-05-2020 03:46PM

Aegir wrote: »

I’d be a lot happier if they were standing alongside their CMO every evening taking direct questions from the media.

We've had a lot of press conferences with politicians, and daily HSE briefings, I don't think we need the Taoiseach there night in night out? Most of the questions I hear at the HSE briefings are the same questions repeated over and over again at this stage, I've stopped watching.

I also don't think it would be a good thing to have the Taoiseach (or even Ministers) required to be grilled on every issue on a daily basis. Preparing for press conferences tends to take a lot of time, and they require a lot of people to take time out of whatever they are doing to brief politicians on them.

mandrake04 · 01-05-2020 03:51PM

Martina1991 wrote: »

How can we collect data about who is tested and who isn't if people are doing it themselves. I dont know why people think diagnostic testing is so easy or straightforward that anyone can do it.

Probably because they are just dumb, I have to laugh recently as people talk about Covid Test kits as if they are familiar with it.....I’m not sure what they have in mind, maybe they think it’s like a pee on a stick test or shít in a brown top jar and dip litmus strip in and if detects the RNA it changes from brown to fluorescent green.

Sure home test, just bung it on the Panther or MP96 because every home should have one of those and the LC480 sure that can be used to make toast when you are not running plates.

tobefrank321 · 01-05-2020 03:56PM

Funsterdelux wrote: »

Theres a vast cultural difference between us and Oz.

Its like comparing Fair City with Home And Away.

You will have to explain this one to me, as I don't see it.

Both countries have a strong pub, restaurant and café culture. We both like our sporting events, their Aussie rules is similar to our GAA in terms of importance. They are fanatical about sports, as are we, and much the same sports. It will be interesting to see if they reopen mass public events.

They like going to the beach on a warm say, so do we. They are known for their sociable behaviour such as neighbourhood bbqs.

Most of their cities are like Western European cities.

The only really difference I see is the Aussies take border security very very seriously. Whereas we don't.

Funsterdelux · 01-05-2020 03:58PM

tobefrank321 wrote: »

You will have to explain this one to me, as I don't see it.

Both countries have a strong pub, restaurant and café culture. We both like our sporting events, their Aussie rules is similar to our GAA in terms of importance. They are fanatical about sports, as are we, and much the same sports. It will be interesting to see if they reopen mass public events.

They like going to the beach on a warm say, so do we. They are known for their sociable behaviour such as neighbourhood bbqs.

Most of their cities are like Western European cities.

The only really difference I see is the Aussies take border security very very seriously. Whereas we don't.

Exactly

I agree with you, i was only takin the mick with the fair city ref.

stephenjmcd · 01-05-2020 03:59PM

https://twitter.com/ColmBurkeTD/status/1256229252804104192?s=19

bennyl10 · 01-05-2020 04:08PM

Leo to speak at 6.30 seemingly

ACitizenErased · 01-05-2020 04:12PM

State of the Nation Address at 6:30

Covid19 Part XVI- 21,983 in ROI (1,339 deaths) 3,881 in NI (404 deaths)(05/05)Read OP

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