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Relaxation of restrictions Part II

Tokyo

Continuation of the "Relaxation of restrictions" from here.

Please note that all mod warnings and threadbans carry through from the previous thread.

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Penfailed

drunkmonkey wrote: »

We'll all be vegetarian shortly

Something positive!

SusanC10

Apologies if this has already been answered here but is it today that it will be announced what changes if any there will be to the restrictions? If so, what time ?

un5byh7sqpd2x0

SusanC10 wrote: »

Apologies if this has already been answered here but is it today that it will be announced what changes if any there will be to the restrictions? If so, what time ?

Quarter past.

growleaves

Bizarely thinking that it's only an old person's problem does not help anyone

Comparing people who disagree with you on the restrictions to Vichy Nazi collaborators who transport Jews to concentration camps is very helpful though.

KrustyUCC

SusanC10 wrote: »

Apologies if this has already been answered here but is it today that it will be announced what changes if any there will be to the restrictions? If so, what time ?

Roughly six apparently

https://www.thejournal.ie/roadmap-to-reopen-ireland-due-today-as-trump-claims-evidence-linking-chinese-lab-with-virus-todays-covid-19-main-points-5089002-May2020/

Breezin

Interesting article here on California closing beaches. Experts not convinced: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/apr/30/california-beaches-closed-coronavirus-risks-experts

Andrew Noymer, public health professor at the University of California, Irvine: “The era of lockdowns is ending, and the era of trade-offs is beginning. People aren’t going to shelter in place for 15 months. I would rather see crowded beaches than a crowded indoor shopping mall.”

seamus

Downlinz wrote: »

A regional approach is what a lot of other countries are doing but we'd need a serious Gardai presence to enforce this or otherwise you're going to have infected Dubs flocking to areas of the country with relaxed restrictions and increasing the spread.

The practicalities of this are difficult.

They could go with the French model where regions are coloured Red, Yellow or Green depending on the severity of the outbreak(s) there. Restrictions then differ based on the colour of your region.

But enforcement can become difficult. It's a very blunt approach; one person might be in a red zone while their next door neighbour is in a yellow. So enforcement would have to be flexible if you want peoples' buy-in.

Overall I'm not sure if it's the right approach for a country of our size, but I can certainly see the appeal in it.

[Deleted User]

retro:electro wrote: »

Am I understanding this correctly- according to this leaked timeline, there will be three weeks/ one month between each stage. And there may even be the possibility that we will have to move back a stage if it’s “not working”. Meaning it could be well into August before some services and small business will be open?
Does Leo think the public are actually going to accept this?
****ing grim.

All these restrictions work with the consent of the people. If the consent of the people is lost, the restrictions no longer work. Do you think the people will accept responsibility if the virus breaks out again however?

Cal4567

We are where we are because of the lockdown. It's as simple as that. The last 6/7 weeks have saved so many deaths.

Phased openings like the media seems to be implying, looks like the safest option. To do anything else, we run the risk of the numbers creeping up again.

Agree though it should be an every 2/3 week thing and then take a look at where we are. There can be no other solution. I'm behind this approach as I think are most of us. Like to see a poll here, out of interest.

seamus

retro:electro wrote: »

Am I understanding this correctly- according to this leaked timeline, there will be three weeks/ one month between each stage. And there may even be the possibility that we will have to move back a stage if it’s “not working”. Meaning it could be well into August before some services and small business will be open?
Does Leo think the public are actually going to accept this?
****ing grim.

There is still relatively broad acceptance across the public. A poll this week found a majority would support keeping the restrictions in place if necessary. I think a review every 2-4 weeks is about the right balance of giving people something to aim for without changing so quickly that you can't keep a lid on things.

Anecdotally, virtually everyone I have spoken to is already mentally prepared for it to be September until we're back to "mostly normal"; this is, cafes, pubs and restaurants beginning to reopen.

It might be grim, but it's necessary.

mandrake04

retro:electro wrote: »

Am I understanding this correctly- according to this leaked timeline, there will be three weeks/ one month between each stage. And there may even be the possibility that we will have to move back a stage if it’s “not working”. Meaning it could be well into August before some services and small business will be open?
Does Leo think the public are actually going to accept this?
****ing grim.

It was always going be a long term process, as you flatten the curve you spread out the time line and try and control it somewhat.

6034073

People are going get infected.

Unless of course you suppress it (cut of the supply completely, close down everything, shops, off-licence, you practically live in a bubble) then you will have a shorter timeline as you cut of the viruses chance to reproduce.

the kelt

SusanC10 wrote: »

Apologies if this has already been answered here but is it today that it will be announced what changes if any there will be to the restrictions? If so, what time ?

It will be at an unspecified suitable time in the future thats as close as possible to a time they dont really know yet but we will continue as we are and they will tell you as soon as is feasible.

Icantthinkof1

I think people are clinging to this notion that 14people under the age of 45y died so therefore anyone under that age bracket will be grand

Do people not understand that the reason the number of deaths in this age category are at that number is because these cases were given treatment in hospitals and in the ICU’s because of the lockdown as the hospitals had the capacity to treat them

If we give all under 45’s free reign to save the economy it might not take long for cases to rack up in that age group and the hospitals may get overwhelmed and then the death rates in this age group may increase

From 1st case to Tuesday 28th April

Cases: 20111
In Hospital: 2706 13.50%
Total In ICU: 360 1.80%
Median Age: 49
Healthcare workers: 28%

gozunda

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Yes we had a look at Italy. Predominately an illness of the elderly, obese and/or those with underlying conditions such as hypertension, diabetes, etc A very targeted illness that demands a very targeted response.

Here we locked down everyone and forgot to properly lockdown nursing homes.

We still leave positive cases in nursing homes, which risks contaminating other residents, staff and the wider community. We still use nursing homes as step down facilities from hospitals which risks bring covid19 in there, and I believe one of the conditions of recent help to nursing homes was they'd take in more patients which if true is almost a murderous mistake. There's also a risk that HSE carers are going between homes because of staff shortages, with the risk of spreading it that way. The speed at which it spread in nursing homes shows there was no serious effort to target them.

Shutting down the community is the lazymans approach to a very specific problem. Its akin to shutting down roads because of car accidents caused by speeding or drunk drivers. You target the specific cause, not shut everything down.

The disease can affect any age any group. The young, the middle aged and the elderly. Medical research indicates that over 60% of the worlds population will become infected at some point. And all age groups have significant numbers of people with both short term various medical and long term conditions.

Why the need for restrictions? Exactly because just about anyone can get it and all those can spread it. Hence the restictions to control the spread of the disease and to stop health services being overwhelmed - like Italy.

Nursing homes across the world are unfortunately being badly affected - not just Ireland. The reasons for this is because the people living there cannot socially isolate and have vulnerable people who live alongside the healthy. But more importantly nursing homes cannot be completely isolated from the wider community. Nurses, staff, catering is all required to keep these homes happens. The staff and other personal live in the wider community. Get rid of those restrictions and the infection rate will climb and more people in the community will increasingly bring the disease to those in such settings .

Restrictions are there for these exact and very good reasons. That some refuse to acknowledge that is neither here nor there.

stephenjmcd

Cal4567 wrote: »

We are where we are because of the lockdown. It's as simple as that. The last 6/7 weeks have saved so many deaths.

Phased openings like the media seems to be implying, looks like the safest option. To do anything else, we run the risk of the numbers creeping up again.

Agree though it should be an every 2/3 week thing and then take a look at where we are. There can be no other solution. I'm behind this approach as I think are most of us. Like to see a poll here, out of interest.

I dont think anyone is arguing against the phased reopening it's the proper way to do things.

What's annoying people is being told constantly we're doing well but not well enough, when the vast majority of the general public have done what's been asked of them and seem to be still getting the blame for want of a better phrase as to why we're not in a position to start the phased reopening. When the HSE and dept of health have been talking about meeting this target of 15k tests a day for the last 4 weeks, likewise contact tracing not up to scratch. The public have done what's been asked, the powers that be haven't

[Deleted User]

Icantthinkof1 wrote: »

...........
Do people not understand that the reason the number of deaths in this age category are at that number is because these cases were given treatment in hospitals and in the ICU’s because of the lockdown as the hospitals had the capacity to treat them

If we give all under 45’s free reign to save the economy it might not take long for cases to rack up in that age group and the hospitals may get overwhelmed and then the death rates in this age group may increase ............

Unfortunately a proportion of the population seem think the lockdown has been proven to be unnecessary as we didn't see thousands more die and the hospitals overran.

KrustyUCC

seamus wrote: »

There is still relatively broad acceptance across the public. A poll this week found a majority would support keeping the restrictions in place if necessary. I think a review every 2-4 weeks is about the right balance of giving people something to aim for without changing so quickly that you can't keep a lid on things.

Anecdotally, virtually everyone I have spoken to is already mentally prepared for it to be September until we're back to "mostly normal"; this is, cafes, pubs and restaurants beginning to reopen.

It might be grim, but it's necessary.

The plan later on will be interesting

Yes it will have phases but the extent of each phase will be key

Going by tgev

hmmm

the kelt wrote: »

But i recognise the plight of others outside my own little bubble which it seems others dont and i recognise that ordinary people are being blamed and scapegoated whilst the powers that be have simply not stepped up to the plate in terms of testing tracing etc.

We are not all in this together, "its a case of do as i say and not as i do" yet not once have i seen any semblance of admission from the HSE etc of their own failings.

We have massively increased our testing capacity and healthcare capacity in the space of a few weeks. The Health Service have done an amazing job - there was always going to be people who were ready to criticise them with the benefit of hindsight, everyone gets to choose whether you want to be one of them.

We are dealing with a dangerous new virus where there is little clear scientific evidence of how it is spread, and how it can be treated. Testing and contact tracing alone has only worked in Korea as part of a range of other measures - including very intrusive apps which track people's movements. We don't have the same society as Korea - 3 weeks ago it was all "clap for carers", now it is "screw the restrictions".

Yes we have done "everything we have been asked", but the virus will dictate how quickly we can reopen parts of society - you can look for someone to blame if you wish.

retro:electro

If this phased 2/3 week approach is going to be the one that materialises, is there any reason why some counties who haven’t been as affected can’t move on to the next phase sooner? Similar the danger levels that red and orange style weather warnings are based on. Why not keep the counties who are above a certain % in cases/deaths/ICU in one phase and let the rest of us at it

What Username Guidelines

stephenjmcd wrote: »

I dont think anyone is arguing against the phased reopening it's the proper way to do things.

What's annoying people is being told constantly we're doing well but not well enough, when the vast majority of the general public have done what's been asked of them and seem to be still getting the blame for want of a better phrase as to why we're not in a position to start the phased reopening. When the HSE and dept of health have been talking about meeting this target of 15k tests a day for the last 4 weeks, likewise contact tracing not up to scratch. The public have done what's been asked, the powers that be haven't

You know at this stage I'd actually happy enough if Leo came out and said "Look, we know how to suppress this thing with mass-testing. We know what we need and we know how to ramp it up. We'll have it all in place on May 18th or whatever". Praised the public for continuing efforts and give us an indication of what'll be eased.

setanta1984

I think most would accept a week, even maybe two weeks, of the current measures if they set out a clear, defined plan this evening which makes proper, tangible changes every 2 weeks until a full removal (to the new baseline) in mid June.
If they don't provide concrete dates with real beneficial changes to kick in soon then they will lose whatever patience remains I think.

When countries far worse hit than us, whose systems did actually collapse, can have solid, ambitious and hopeful plans set out weeks before us (and already have started) how can they justify what they are doing here?

Why has nobody challenged them on why the entire continent (except the UK) can be already working towards a normality and we can't?

[Deleted User]

Kamari Witty Griddle wrote: »

Tell that to the families of the 14 you mentioned, gowl.

Its a global pandemic. There was always going to be deaths. Cruel world we live in.

14 is still a tiny number. You have to think on a larger scale when running a country.

Stormyteacup

gozunda wrote: »

Why the need to keep repeating the same daft stuff again and again?

I do love the fact you seem to think anyone over 45 is 'elderly' lol. And it's not just about the "death rate" or about those "under 45". Its about everyone.

And again - the central issue is keeping the rate of infection controlled and not overwhelming our health services. Those under 45 can spread the disease just as much as anyone else. There are also many under 45s with Long term illnesses.

A check of the stats showed that on one given day approx 6% of those under 45 were hospitalised. And that says nothing of the many thousands more of those under 45 who will get the disease and have to fight it themselves at home.

Older people - even those cocooning - dont exist in complete isolation. They still need to interact with medical services, food deliveries and everything else needed for survival. An increase in infection rates will have a devastating impact on them and others.

Of course restrictions will be relaxed overtime. Bizarely thinking that it's only an old person's problem does not help anyone

Criteria for easing of restrictions:

Progress of disease
Healthcare capacity and resilience
Testing and contact tracing capacity
[*]Ability to shield at risk groups, and
The risk of secondary morbidity.

I think this is one of the main reasons NPHET don't want to lift restrictions. They will be held absolutely accountable for further deaths of the vulnerable in our society. That will influence the decisions made more than any frustration or economic hurt experienced currently - maybe in fact they have factored in the expected level of non-compliance from society and decided its acceptable for the next few weeks.

The spread is under control for the general population. Health services will not be overrun if social distancing measures remain for the foreseeable.

Problem is, how are the vulnerable to be protected? As pointed out above, they are exposed by any small number of basic, necessary interactions.

I don't envy them trying to find a solution.

But at the very least today we need some clear explanations as to why keeping restrictions is necessary - not more figures out of context that are at best unhelpful and at worst, misleading.

facehugger99

Lads, we've fcuked it.

We've given the doctors a sledgehammer, put the Covid-19 nut on the plate glass economy-tabletop and told them to give it their best shot.

Anyone who can should be buying guns and gold.

KrustyUCC

The key to the roadmap will be what is in each phase

It can't be too stung out and too unambitious or long

Take Belgium for example

They expect people to be able to host gatherings at home on May 18th

As an from Monday you can meet up with 2 people who dont live with them

All shops to reopen May 11th with social distancing

Their plan has specific dates in mind

Will be interesting to see if Leo's does later

What Username Guidelines

mandrake04 wrote: »

It was always going be a long term process, as you flatten the curve you spread out the time line and try and control it somewhat.

People are going get infected.

Unless of course you suppress it (cut of the supply completely, close down everything, shops, off-licence, you practically live in a bubble) then you will have a shorter timeline as you cut of the viruses chance to reproduce.

First time I've seen that graph with a timeline tbh, always thought they left it off because no one has a clue when this will end.

[Deleted User]

retro:electro wrote: »

If this phased 2/3 week approach is going to be the one that materialises, is there any reason why some counties who haven’t been as affected can’t move on to the next phase sooner? Similar the danger levels that red and orange style weather warnings are based on. Why not keep the counties who are above a certain % in cases/deaths/ICU in one phase and let the rest of us at it

A universal approach has huge benefits.
It's been acknowledged that NI and ROI not having a similar approach was/is problematic so having a county by county approach is rather a tall order.

the kelt

hmmm wrote: »

We have massively increased our testing capacity and healthcare capacity in the space of a few weeks. The Health Service have done an amazing job - there was always going to be people who were ready to criticise them with the benefit of hindsight, everyone gets to choose whether you want to be one of them.

We are dealing with a dangerous new virus where there is little clear scientific evidence of how it is spread, and how it can be treated. Testing and contact tracing alone has only worked in Korea as part of a range of other measures - including very intrusive apps which track people's movements. We don't have the same society as Korea - 3 weeks ago it was all "clap for carers", now it is "screw the restrictions".

Yes we have done "everything we have been asked", but the virus will dictate how quickly we can reopen parts of society - and there is no-one to blame for this.

Thats your opinion which is fine, we are all entitled to it, i disagree but such is life. By the way its not only the HSE i have issues with, the failures of government i find issue with and generally im not one to go down that line, politics doesnt interest me.

Only time will tell, if we have done such a great job with testing, tracing etc how come it looks like we will be the last country in europe to begin easing restrictions substantially?

But on your last point, no one is to blame, it is what it is, i would agree with that but then we have the the ordinary joe being threatened last week by the powers that be that its their fault etc for restrictions not being lifted etc etc so where does the "theres no one to blame" rhetoric fit there?

stephenjmcd

KrustyUCC wrote: »

The key to the roadmap will be what is in each phase

It can't be too stung out and too unambitious or long

Take Belgium for example

They expect people to be able to host gatherings at home on May 18th

As an from Monday you can meet up with 2 people who dont live with them

All shops to reopen May 11th with social distancing

Their plan has specific dates in mind

Will be interesting to see if Leo's does later

That's the thing from the leaks in the last week it seems as if this will be dragged out while countires who've been in much worse positions than us will be essentially back up and running. A plan without a timeline will be basically no good as it doesn't give anyone anything to actually aim towards. Find it mind boggling how every other country can manage to give a decent laid out plan but not here.

I hope I'm wrong and this evening we'll see I just get the feelings it's going to be more of these are the phases but we'll get the "when the time is right" talk

hmmm

What Username Guidelines wrote: »

You know at this stage I'd actually happy enough if Leo came out and said "Look, we know how to suppress this thing with mass-testing. We know what we need and we know how to ramp it up. We'll have it all in place on May 18th or whatever". Praised the public for continuing efforts and give us an indication of what'll be eased.

Mass testing will not suppress this, it will only help to suppress it.

Social distancing and the ban on gatherings are probably the key measures which have suppressed the virus so far. They will have to continue, with some exceptions if possible.