Covid19 Part XVI- 21,983 in ROI (1,339 deaths) 3,881 in NI (404 deaths)(05/05)Read OP

speckle · 01-05-2020 01:25AM

WoollyRedHat wrote: »

I wouldn't expect a lab to tested unless there was a suspected outbreak, that would be unusual no?

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/part-of-trinity-college-closed-after-coronavirus-case-linked-to-university-1.4195155?mode=amp
So were they 8 student nurses or doctors or trainee lab techs, post docs or staff. If so many people are asymtomatic and they didnt test all the students and staff how many new clusters around the country were seeded by sending all the students home. What happened to the foreign international students. Hope they all recovered.

WoollyRedHat · 01-05-2020 01:30AM

There needs to be a much more targeted government media campaign on various issues connected to the crisis.

One is in visual modelling of what would happen in a mass gathering environment with little to no social distancing. If you had a visual simulation of what can happens if such guidance is not adhered to, itwould be very beneficial to inform the public of the risks and reality of what we're facing, why can't they do this? Visual projections would be much more effective than speeches and bar charts that majority of public won't absorb for a sustainable period of time. The modelling I'm referring to already exists.

The other is masks. We need to ramp up provision of masks for essential workers, to include healthcare workers, including those in nursing homes. Also provision of masks for work where risk of infection is higher e.g. social care workers. Once this happens and supply for key workers is safeguarded we need a public health campaign which encourages use of masks amongst the general populace in likes of supermarkets, public transport etc. This has to part of a coordinated campaign to protect everybody and it needs to happen as a matter of urgency.

Strazdas · 01-05-2020 01:32AM

Interesting study from St James Hospital in Dublin concerning ICU patients and the role of blood clots in Covid-19 :

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8273609/Coronavirus-deadly-blood-clots-Irish-doctors-hundreds-small-blockages-lungs.html

maebee · 01-05-2020 01:34AM

No matter what date our government reduces restrictions, my restrictions will stay in place beyond. I think that I will forever cross the road when walking to avoid others.

Our government is under severe pressure to reduce restrictions because of the discontentment of some of our people. I worry that they will ease just to please. I hope that they will do the right thing and continue restrictions.

s1ippy · 01-05-2020 01:47AM

Jim_Hodge wrote: »

You do know what they mean by 'man-made'?

Obviously lab-engineered. But humans are responsible for the virus.

speckle · 01-05-2020 01:49AM

New Home wrote: »

Hibiscrub (chlorhexidine)

Thanks can never remember its name I alwàys say hibiscius like the flowering plant. Knew someone would understand the 'pink stuff' :-)

wakka12 · 01-05-2020 01:50AM

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/news.sky.com/story/amp/coronavirus-president-jair-bolsonaro-dismissive-as-overwhelmed-brazilians-dig-mass-graves-11981428

A sobering account of the situation in Brazil. With Ecuador being devastated and deaths increasing in Peru and Mexico it seems the epicentre is moving from Europe and USA to South America

fritzelly · 01-05-2020 01:53AM

Strazdas wrote: »

Interesting study from St James Hospital in Dublin concerning ICU patients and the role of blood clots in Covid-19 :

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8273609/Coronavirus-deadly-blood-clots-Irish-doctors-hundreds-small-blockages-lungs.html

This virus just gets worse and worse every week, not only this but the weird kawasaki syndrome in children (maybe just a coincidence...)
You have to ask questions as to whether China was really giving any real facts about the virus

I'm not a conspiracy theorist nut but this virus seems like the ultimate weapon to decimate the population - may not kill you at the start but it's gonna leave you with some serious complications for later life. Not something viruses would normally be like - they adapt to survive not wreck their hosts

Miike · 01-05-2020 02:14AM

Strazdas wrote: »

Interesting study from St James Hospital in Dublin concerning ICU patients and the role of blood clots in Covid-19 :

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8273609/Coronavirus-deadly-blood-clots-Irish-doctors-hundreds-small-blockages-lungs.html

Link to the actual published article: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/bjh.16749 I don't know if it's in the Daily Mail article, I refuse to give them a click.

Maestro85 · 01-05-2020 02:16AM

fritzelly wrote: »

This virus just gets worse and worse every week, not only this but the weird kawasaki syndrome in children (maybe just a coincidence...)
You have to ask questions as to whether China was really giving any real facts about the virus

I'm not a conspiracy theorist nut but this virus seems like the ultimate weapon to decimate the population - may not kill you at the start but it's gonna leave you with some serious complications for later life. Not something viruses would normally be like - they adapt to survive not wreck their hosts

I don't consider any of this conspiracy stuff just shock of us all at how pervasive this virus is. It has left scientists, doctors and the public dumbfounded. Personally, I don't believe China has been telling us everything, back when it started and now. It is a culture of saving face and if this does turn out to be a man made "accident" then history won't be kind to the place it originated. My friend, who is a nurse, is someone I regularly talk to as I am checking in on her father (my neighbor) who is 70+ has mentioned the clotting stuff to me over a week ago and has said she has spoken to doctors who can't fathom how it is mutating so heinously because as you said the majority of viruses mutate to survive not destroy hosts.

cnocbui · 01-05-2020 02:40AM

fritzelly wrote: »

This virus just gets worse and worse every week, not only this but the weird kawasaki syndrome in children (maybe just a coincidence...)
You have to ask questions as to whether China was really giving any real facts about the virus

I'm not a conspiracy theorist nut but this virus seems like the ultimate weapon to decimate the population - may not kill you at the start but it's gonna leave you with some serious complications for later life. Not something viruses would normally be like - they adapt to survive not wreck their hosts

I am constantly thankful this virus is as benign as it is. It could easily have been far, far worse.

fritzelly · 01-05-2020 02:55AM

cnocbui wrote: »

I am constantly thankful this virus is as benign as it is. It could easily have been far, far worse.

Is it that benign tho - so many reports of lung, heart damage etc
How is this going to affect people later on is a big question that we won't know about for years to come
I would say it's more insidious than benign and I was blah blahing people reporting all these other complications earlier on. More fool me for believing the Chinese reports

ShineOn7 · 01-05-2020 03:35AM

Very detailed stats from the Reddit user today

_____________________________

New Cases: 359
Total Cases: 20612
New Death: 43
Denotified: 1
Total Deaths: 1232

Deaths: 1011 lab confirmed
Hospitalised + died in hospital: 463 46%
Died in ICU: 57 6%
Underlying conditions: 878 87%
Median age: 83
Mean age: 81

Of 362 in ICU

Remain in hospital: 123 34%
Discharged: 182 50%
Died: 57 15.80%
Underlying conditions: 302 84%
Median Age: 60
Currently in ICU (as of today): 106

As of Tuesday 28th

Cases: 20111
In Hospital: 2706 13.50%
Total In ICU: 360 1.80%
Median Age: 49
Healthcare workers: 28%

Healthcare workers

5627 healthcare workers infected at some points
212 3.7% hospitalised
34 in ICU
5 deaths 0.10%
Median age 41
73% female

Breakdown:

34% nurses
24% Allied
24% HCA
7% doctors
1% doctors

Residential Settings (Includes nursing homes)

Clusters: 371 - 2 up from yesterday
Total Cases: 4590 - Increase of 227
Total Deaths: 735 - 59.70%
Hospitalised: 348 - 7.60%
Place of death 123 of 735 occurred in acute hospital environment.

Nursing Homes

Clusters: 219
Total Cases: 3679 - Increase of 220 from yesterday
Total Deaths: 630 - 51.10%
Hospitalised: 233 - 5%
Place of death 99 of 630 occurred in acute hospital environment.

Modelling with Philip Nolan

Run up to 13th March when 1st social distancing measures were implemented- New cases confirmed each day (+German figures): 20-40 cases per day, 40 people hospitalised
Schools closed, moderate social distancing implemented - run up to end of March - New cases confirmed each day (+German): 450 new cases per day, 450 roughly hospitalised
28th March - stronger measures, stay at home - clearly choked off transmission of disease promptly. Confirmed cases plateau'ed and has remained between 400-600 - almost 900 people in hospital
Monday 22nd to Friday 28th March - we went from 150 to 600 new cases a day, 170 to 450 people in hospital, 50 people in ICU to 80 in ICU.
Peak of ICU cases - 160
Measures have had significant impact on transmission of the disease in community, not on hospitalisations
Backdating of tests from when they were taken (not confirmed)
Very sharp increase in general population up until 28th March, then a very rapid decline. Very marked reduction in new cases detected in general public
Healthcare workers - catch disease by being exposed to sick people. It is detected later in healthcare workers. Number of cases has been stable across April, but indiciations that it is now dropping
Residential care - disease entered later than it appeared in general population. Over the last week, there is an increase in detection due to targeted testing. Detecting several hundred cases.
Significiant prevalence of incidence of disease in population
Overall growth rate of the disease: Very close to 0 since the beginning of April
Three components to look at when making decisions - general, healthcare, residential

Model

Time dependent reproduction numbers - looks back at all the tests from when the swabs was taken. Started up around 5. Very soon after 28th March it came comfortably under 1. R0 = 0.8
Second way is a model - cases, deaths, timing of various social distancing measures. Before social distancing: 3.6. Current estimation of 0.5
Estimate is somewhere between 0.5 and 0.8,
Both models confident that reproductive rate is below 1
More data allows us to see better how moderate measures affected the R0 - 1.7 - not that great, can't go back to that
730 now in hospital
100 admissions per day to hospital was peak, now below 40.
160 cases in ICU was the peak number
14-15 peak admitted per day
Now around 4 admitted to ICU per day.

Questions

Decision would go 'down to wire' - has your mind been made up? People will be disappointed.

Getting closer to making mind up, NPHET meeting tomorrow to make their assessment and give advice to the government. If we look at all the measures that we think are important, we think that the case hasn't arisen yet to allow us to lift the restrictions. Even though we've seen further improvement in every measure. We need to get down to a lower baseline. The number of cases identified in the public everyday is still too high in the population for general - roughly the same as early March.

Why were Sweden's hospitalised not overrun? Is our model wrong?

Population generally social distances, and now strongly using social distancing and hygiene. Don't think that our model is wrong. Difference between plotting data and modelling. If you are in a position where a substantial amount if disease is seeded in population and spreading rapidly, simple social distancing measures will not stop the disease, as it is accelerating very rapidly. This is what was happening here. Putting in strict measures reduced that acceleration. Different countries have different strategies - Sweden had smaller numbers at the beginning than we did. We need to watch them carefully over the next few weeks, just like how we're watching other countries. Short-term outcomes show us something - need time to tell whether or not Strategy A was better than Strategy B. Our strategy has worked in slowing the disease. Definitely too early to tell which strategies were right or wrong, from current data.

Is there not a danger with the roadmap, that people may go ahead of the roadmap?

Roadmap is to give sense of direction, and managing the task of this with the Irish people. This has worked heretofore where we have managed to control the disease to where it is now. We've done a significant job as a population. NPHET's job is to help advise government on a plan and approach. Want measures to limit the risk to yourself, your family, and transmission to others in public. Have high degree of confidence that we will get the right kind of response from the public. Interval of at least 3 weeks between each step on the roadmap to make sure that we are still where we need to be, and that people aren't jumping in the gun at the roadmap stages.

German supermarkets have long queues for things like garden chairs etc. Things that garden centres and hardware stores would have held. What is your opinion on these kinds of shops selling this stock?

Not going to criticise any shop for what it sells. High degree of compliance, list set out. Roadmap will be set out on shops which can open/stay closed. People, in good faith, to co-operate with.

Very sharp rise in March due to Italians coming over?

No, people were still acting normal, in intimate ways - hugging, kissings. There was free spread of the disease at this time. This rapidly spread the disease and it all came to a head. People need to be very cautious in the future in regards to respiratory etiquette. We need to find some intermediate way of living between where we are now, and how we acted around March 13th. Market research shows that population are concerned that we do this in a careful and stepwise way in lifting restrictions.

skimpydoo · 01-05-2020 04:14AM

maebee wrote: »

No matter what date our government reduces restrictions, my restrictions will stay in place beyond. I think that I will forever cross the road when walking to avoid others.

Our government is under severe pressure to reduce restrictions because of the discontentment of some of our people. I worry that they will ease just to please. I hope that they will do the right thing and continue restrictions.

I am in the same boat as you. My restrictions will continue longterm and I don't know when I will be able to go to the cinema, a concert, a pub or a restaurant.

I will be very pissed if they ease restrictions.

ceadaoin. · 01-05-2020 06:51AM

fritzelly wrote: »

Is it that benign tho - so many reports of lung, heart damage etc
How is this going to affect people later on is a big question that we won't know about for years to come
I would say it's more insidious than benign and I was blah blahing people reporting all these other complications earlier on. More fool me for believing the Chinese reports

Yeah except there's no solid evidence that any of that is the case. No point stressing about it until more is known. What is definitely becoming apparent is that the death rate is nowhere near the apocalyptic scenarios that were painted. I'll take that tbh.

OscarMIlde · 01-05-2020 07:44AM

polesheep wrote: »

Absolutely, you are correct in saying that TBSI closed for that reason. I'm just saying that there was no negligence and that they responded exactly as you would expect from such a department. And to be fair, they kept TBSI closed until they were sure it was safe to reopen.

I know that you never suggested that the issue of the nursing homes was connected, I apologise if I seemed to infer that. I was just making the point that there are much bigger failings to be addressed.

They kept TTMI open though, despite the fact that there was a careers day seminar in TBSI the day the first Trinity case was confirmed, and people from TTMI attended. They even had a "TTMI day" the FOLLOWING DAY! Very poor response from Trinity.

And on the subject of Luke O' Neill, he was very cavalier about covid 19 on prime time until the evening of the confirmed case from his lab. He then changed his tune and kept repeating that the possibility of asymptomatic spread was a "gamechanger" that had just come out that day. This despite the fact that the possibility of asymptomatic spread had been mooted since the beginnings of the outbreak. Which leads me to believe he had done next to no reading on Sars-Co-V 2, yet decided to set himself up as an expert regardless.

Wibbs · 01-05-2020 08:05AM

OscarMIlde wrote: »

And on the subject of Luke O' Neill, he was very cavalier about covid 19 on prime time until the evening of the confirmed case from his lab. He then changed his tune and kept repeating that the possibility of asymptomatic spread was a "gamechanger" that had just come out that day. This despite the fact that the possibility of asymptomatic spread had been mooted since the beginnings of the outbreak. Which leads me to believe he had done next to no reading on Sars-Co-V 2, yet decided to set himself up as an expert regardless.

The professor Cormican guy was another like him, who on behalf of the HSE dismissed asymptomatic spread as very low risk, weeks after even the WHO had said it was an issue. You could have read this in such august publications as the Lancet, American Journal of Medicine even the Daily bloody Mail. Neither of these so called "experts" seems to have access to a working search engine on their phones or PCs.

01-05-2020 09:21AM

I haven’t posted in one of these threads in ages. Seems I’m not the only one as this thread was started two weeks ago. I also stopped watching the daily briefings and all news reports a couple of weeks ago too. I’m not really sure why. I guess I knew there would be cases and deaths and if there had been a crazy amount, I’d have heard about it somewhere.

How are we all doing?

cnocbui · 01-05-2020 09:29AM

fritzelly wrote: »

Is it that benign tho - so many reports of lung, heart damage etc
How is this going to affect people later on is a big question that we won't know about for years to come
I would say it's more insidious than benign and I was blah blahing people reporting all these other complications earlier on. More fool me for believing the Chinese reports

It's benign compared to if it had a 35% fatality rate in all adults and a 70% fatality rate in children, but with all the other traits like long incubation period with asymptomatic contagiousness. Read up on the Black Death, we really dodged a bullet.

I think we need a big red button. When it's pressed. All air travel stops within 12 hours. Nothing takes off and anything in the air on an international route empties onto the apron and everyone is trucked off to a quarantine camp.

cnocbui · 01-05-2020 09:35AM

Strawberry Milkshake wrote: »

I haven’t posted in one of these threads in ages. Seems I’m not the only one as this thread was started two weeks ago. I also stopped watching the daily briefings and all news reports a couple of weeks ago too. I’m not really sure why. I guess I knew there would be cases and deaths and if there had been a crazy amount, I’d have heard about it somewhere.

How are we all doing?

Doing fine thanks. Hope you are too. I'm the same. Days or weeks can go by now without me looking at one of the threads in this series.

cloudatlas · 01-05-2020 09:43AM

I see Varadkar wants to let elderly people out at a certain time. Great just replicate the care home situation in the community.

cloudatlas · 01-05-2020 09:44AM

Conor McGregor says we can all leave lockdown on Tuesday 5th so happy news there.

Gynoid · 01-05-2020 09:46AM

The history and economics of pandemics by Dr Steve Davies
Full article at https://iea.org.uk/publications/going-viral/

Summary on site -

Pandemics (a term with a precise and technical definition) are a recurring feature of human history.

In the modern world, since the 1770s, we have had a series of pandemics, with a series of cholera ones in the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, and a series of five influenza ones since 1890. Further back there have been truly massive pandemics that killed a significant part of the world’s population. Even the milder modern ones have had significant effects.

The Covid-19 virus has several features that mean it poses a more severe challenge than influenza pandemics such as those of 1957-8 or 1968-9 (although a repeat of one of them would be bad).

In particular it threatens to cause a collapse of hospital systems through a high number of serious cases arising in a short period of time. It is this, rather than lethality, that has driven most of the response.

Historical comparisons tell us a number of things about pandemics, which are also true in this case: they break out after prolonged periods of increasing economic integration; the initial foci are highly connected cities that are centres of trade and/or governance; the pattern is usually one of a series of waves, with the second one historically the most damaging; and they break out in physical or social locations where the human world abuts the natural (because of new pathogens developing in animals and then jumping to humans).

Certain features of many contemporary societies mean that a pandemic is more likely now and will have wider and more damaging results, if not contained, than was the case 50-60 years ago: the degree of international integration and the scale and rapidity of travel makes it easier for the disease to spread and harder to track it (while also creating more resources to deal with it); movements towards things such as just-in-time delivery and long supply chains have made the world economy more efficient but more fragile; a systematic change in the way health systems are run in most countries, combined with a movement of married women into the labour force, and a change in the way old people are cared for, have made the impact of an infectious disease much greater.

The effects of pandemics are known from history and can be seen in outline in this case: a severe hit to the supply side of the economy (not the demand side initially) which will probably lead to a severe and U-shaped recession; innovations and changes in things such as consumption and working patterns that were already underway will be accelerated; a major debt crisis (which was in line to happen anyway, sooner or later) has been triggered along with a fall in the value of many assets; there may be higher inflation in a year to two years’ time; there will be a significant pull-back from globalisation and supranational governance will come under serious strain; there will be extensive but complex social and psychological effects.

The small comfort is that things could have been much worse. We should be aware that, on historical precedent, the pandemic will last for about 18 months (so to summer 2021); that there will be another pandemic at some point and for structural reasons this is more likely than was the case a number of decades ago.

bodhrandude · 01-05-2020 09:55AM

fritzelly wrote: »

This virus just gets worse and worse every week, not only this but the weird kawasaki syndrome in children (maybe just a coincidence...)
You have to ask questions as to whether China was really giving any real facts about the virus

I'm not a conspiracy theorist nut but this virus seems like the ultimate weapon to decimate the population - may not kill you at the start but it's gonna leave you with some serious complications for later life. Not something viruses would normally be like - they adapt to survive not wreck their hosts

The virus just needs a good stiff kick in the balls.

gabeeg · 01-05-2020 09:58AM

ceadaoin. wrote: »

Yeah except there's no solid evidence that any of that is the case. No point stressing about it until more is known. What is definitely becoming apparent is that the death rate is nowhere near the apocalyptic scenarios that were painted. I'll take that tbh.

What on earth are you talking about?

speckle · 01-05-2020 10:03AM

Strawberry Milkshake wrote: »

I haven’t posted in one of these threads in ages. Seems I’m not the only one as this thread was started two weeks ago. I also stopped watching the daily briefings and all news reports a couple of weeks ago too. I’m not really sure why. I guess I knew there would be cases and deaths and if there had been a crazy amount, I’d have heard about it somewhere.

How are we all doing?

Nice to see your still checking in the odd time. Earlier on when I came across a post of yours ,your user name always made me smile no matter how bad things were. thanks.
ps I dont even like strawerry milkshakes. lol

caveat emptor · 01-05-2020 10:03AM

I normally hate talking about trump as it is generally a distraction from what’s happening here but this is earth shattering news.

The leader of the worlds no1 superpower has just accused the no2 superpower of intentionally releasing this virus to hinder his re-election.
Ramifications globally are crazy. Trade war edging towards actual war. That would probably get him re-elected. Scary stuff.

President Trump Confirms "High Degree Of Confidence" That COVID-19 Originated In Wuhan Lab.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/apr/30/donald-trump-coronavirus-chinese-lab-claim

speckle · 01-05-2020 10:06AM

cnocbui wrote: »

Doing fine thanks. Hope you are too. I'm the same. Days or weeks can go by now without me looking at one of the threads in this series.

Think it was yourself. Hope your keeping up the walking and getting the fresh air. Tog de bog é.

ek motor · 01-05-2020 10:14AM

An interesting , albeit slightly older article comparing pandemics since the black death. Covers as far as 2014 ebola outbreak.

https://theconversation.com/fast-spreading-killers-how-ebola-compares-with-other-diseases-32944

speckle · 01-05-2020 10:16AM

caveat emptor wrote: »

I normally hate talking about trump as it is generally a distraction from what’s happening here but this is earth shattering news.

The leader of the worlds no1 superpower has just accused the no2 superpower of intentionally releasing this virus to hinder his re-election.
Ramifications globally are crazy. Trade war edging towards actual war. That would probably get him re-elected. Scary stuff.

President Trump Confirms "High Degree Of Confidence" That COVID-19 Originated In Wuhan Lab.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/apr/30/donald-trump-coronavirus-chinese-lab-claim

And both countrys navy ships, are tagging each other off the Spratly Islands at the moment.

Covid19 Part XVI- 21,983 in ROI (1,339 deaths) 3,881 in NI (404 deaths)(05/05)Read OP

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