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Dublin - Significant reduction in rents coming?

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  • Registered Users Posts: 938 ✭✭✭Ozark707


    Not sure where you get 90% from, but does strengthen the argument for a vacant property tax.

    The REITs used to claim 99% occupancy so would also like to know where the 90% figure came from.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,000 ✭✭✭Hubertj


    Ozark707 wrote: »
    The REITs used to claim 99% occupancy so would also like to know where the 90% figure came from.

    He pulled the number from where the sun doesn’t shine. People like making sensational claims about REITs and other institutional landlords as it sounds great.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,377 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    Hubertj wrote: »
    He pulled the number from where the sun doesn’t shine. People like making sensational claims about REITs and other institutional landlords as it sounds great.

    The claim that they don't care whether the properties are occupied or not was another red flag


  • Registered Users Posts: 938 ✭✭✭Ozark707


    The claim that they don't care whether the properties are occupied or not was another red flag

    I suspect if void periods increased markedly then REITs would be the first to head for the exits.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,969 ✭✭✭Assetbacked


    www.daft.ie/22009334

    This apartment has been on Daft for 2 months, rent has been dropped €50p/m for at least four to five weeks as well. It works out at €900 per room and, despite being next to Google, Facebook etc., still sits vacant. The properties popping up that look like they are excellent value are disappearing so people are still moving. As such, the rents of up to a few weeks ago already seem no longer achievable.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,659 ✭✭✭Sunny Disposition


    I’m telling ye, the good times are over for big city landlords. Mass broadband is turning society on its head, reasons for being in cities for all but young people who like the buzz are evaporating.
    Plus property used for office space is going into decline.
    Do not invest in Dublin, unless it’s a very reasonable price smack bang in the city centre. Even then be wary.
    Time to invest in underpriced small towns. Gap between city and country is about to narrow.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,865 ✭✭✭✭Dav010


    I’m telling ye, the good times are over for big city landlords. Mass broadband is turning society on its head, reasons for being in cities for all but young people who like the buzz are evaporating.
    Plus property used for office space is going into decline.
    Do not invest in Dublin, unless it’s a very reasonable price smack bang in the city centre. Even then be wary.
    Time to invest in underpriced small towns. Gap between city and country is about to narrow.

    You first, let us know how you get on.

    Decentralisation anyone? A new life outside the city.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,000 ✭✭✭Hubertj


    www.daft.ie/22009334

    This apartment has been on Daft for 2 months, rent has been dropped €50p/m for at least four to five weeks as well. It works out at €900 per room and, despite being next to Google, Facebook etc., still sits vacant. The properties popping up that look like they are excellent value are disappearing so people are still moving. As such, the rents of up to a few weeks ago already seem no longer achievable.

    It’s in a great location but the place needs modernisation! That kitchen looks like it’s from the early 90s. Most of the other developments in the area are more modern so perhaps that is what people prefer?


  • Registered Users Posts: 938 ✭✭✭Ozark707


    Hubertj wrote: »
    It’s in a great location but the place needs modernisation! That kitchen looks like it’s from the early 90s. Most of the other developments in the area are more modern so perhaps that is what people prefer?

    Yes still seems expensive (relatively) for what is out there right now. As another poster has pointed out once apts come down to a good price they are clearing so there is still life in the rental market. If there is a further relaxation in restrictions then I expect this to accelerate as more will be confident to go to viewings etc.


  • Registered Users Posts: 938 ✭✭✭Ozark707


    Latest daft figures updated today. As expected volume increased markedly and average rents for 1,2 bed apts are back at levels last seen ~2 years ago.

    https://bl.ocks.org/pinsterdev/raw/234b4a5310a14a32e080/?s=volume


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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,000 ✭✭✭Hubertj


    Ozark707 wrote: »
    Latest daft figures updated today. As expected volume increased markedly and average rents for 1,2 bed apts are back at levels last seen ~2 years ago.

    https://bl.ocks.org/pinsterdev/raw/234b4a5310a14a32e080/?s=volume

    Interesting... while there is more available on market I presume the volume being let is down significantly? So this could be somewhat short term once restrictions are lifted? Must be difficult to view and rent somewhere based on photos or a walk through video? I don’t think I could commit to that.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,865 ✭✭✭✭Dav010


    Ozark707 wrote: »
    Latest daft figures updated today. As expected volume increased markedly and average rents for 1,2 bed apts are back at levels last seen ~2 years ago.

    https://bl.ocks.org/pinsterdev/raw/234b4a5310a14a32e080/?s=volume

    How many of those are short term (<6mth)

    In Dublin, there were an additional 170 properties to rent in the week after the schools closed, this has slowed to 20 additional properties last week.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,208 ✭✭✭LuasSimon


    If as it looks Hotels , restaurants and bars in particular arent going to open for quite a while there will be a lot of foreign workers gone or going to leave Dublin.
    That surely is going to create a lot of empty flats and reduce demand considerably in certain sections of Dublins rental market on top of AIR B &Bs not been needed this year


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,865 ✭✭✭✭Dav010


    LuasSimon wrote: »
    If as it looks Hotels , restaurants and bars in particular arent going to open for quite a while there will be a lot of foreign workers gone or going to leave Dublin.
    That surely is going to create a lot of empty flats and reduce demand considerably in certain sections of Dublins rental market on top of AIR B &Bs not been needed this year

    Very true, but with falling rental prices, capped rentals and the risk of tenants not paying, short lets with guaranteed payment (Airbnb) will appeal to many. Incidentally, most of my guests, about 90% are Irish (Nth & Sth), with international travel likely to be effected for some time, there is some hope on the horizon.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,000 ✭✭✭Hubertj


    LuasSimon wrote: »
    If as it looks Hotels , restaurants and bars in particular arent going to open for quite a while there will be a lot of foreign workers gone or going to leave Dublin.
    That surely is going to create a lot of empty flats and reduce demand considerably in certain sections of Dublins rental market on top of AIR B &Bs not been needed this year

    Where will they go though? World is a sh*t show. How does the Irish welfare system stack up vs others with or without the Covid payment?


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,377 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    International travel is going to be affected for a long time:
    • Fear factor
    • Disposable incomes hit with a global recession
    • Short-term future of Airlines is uncertain
    • Travel restrictions in specific countries from and to other countries

    There will an uptick in domestic holidays but given that nearly double our population came here in 2017, that won't be enough to make up for the loss of foreigners.

    If I owned an Air B'n'B I wouldn't be holding out too much hope of making the returns I was getting on it last year anytime soon. They government may also actually enforce the legislation on short-term letting in the future (although with FG involved I wouldn't hold my breath on that one).


  • Registered Users Posts: 938 ✭✭✭Ozark707



    There will an uptick in domestic holidays but given that nearly double our population came here in 2017, that won't be enough to make up for the loss of foreigners.

    If I owned an Air B'n'B I wouldn't be holding out too much hope of making the returns I was getting on it last year anytime soon. They government may also actually enforce the legislation on short-term letting in the future (although with FG involved I wouldn't hold my breath on that one).


    I suspect Airbnb rates are going to have to come down quite a bit as well. If they come down a good bit will it be worth to go through with it? I can understand why LL's went for it while rates were high but that would appear to be unsustainable in the short to medium term.


  • Registered Users Posts: 938 ✭✭✭Ozark707


    Dav010 wrote: »
    How many of those are short term (<6mth)

    In Dublin, there were an additional 170 properties to rent in the week after the schools closed, this has slowed to 20 additional properties last week.

    I am nearly sure the guy who collates these numbers excludes anything marked as 'Short term'. As many of these short term places are reverting to longer lettings it is probably one of the main reasons the availability numbers are going up so much.


  • Registered Users Posts: 938 ✭✭✭Ozark707


    Hubertj wrote: »
    Interesting... while there is more available on market I presume the volume being let is down significantly? So this could be somewhat short term once restrictions are lifted? Must be difficult to view and rent somewhere based on photos or a walk through video? I don’t think I could commit to that.

    I am wondering if there could be a sort of a snowball effect once restrictions are opened, in that if I was say paying 2.5k previously I can now get similar for a lot cheaper. Then there is a clear incentive to (a) move to the cheaper place or (b) ring my LL and lay the cards on the table (i.e. drop your price substantially or I move).

    If (a) happens then that in itself will lead to more places being advertised for the vacant places they leave behind. Good times for letting agents possibly :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,000 ✭✭✭Hubertj


    Ozark707 wrote: »
    I am wondering if there could be a sort of a snowball effect once restrictions are opened, in that if I was say paying 2.5k previously I can now get similar for a lot cheaper. Then there is a clear incentive to (a) move to the cheaper place or (b) ring my LL and lay the cards on the table (i.e. drop your price substantially or I move).

    If (a) happens then that in itself will lead to more places being advertised for the vacant places they leave behind. Good times for letting agents possibly :)

    good point especially at rents that high. Aren't there longer notice periods depending on how long a tenant has been in a property? I presume if you vacate before end of notice period you would forfeit some or all of deposit etc?


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,969 ✭✭✭Assetbacked


    Ozark707 wrote: »
    I am wondering if there could be a sort of a snowball effect once restrictions are opened, in that if I was say paying 2.5k previously I can now get similar for a lot cheaper. Then there is a clear incentive to (a) move to the cheaper place or (b) ring my LL and lay the cards on the table (i.e. drop your price substantially or I move).

    If (a) happens then that in itself will lead to more places being advertised for the vacant places they leave behind. Good times for letting agents possibly :)

    We pay a little over €2k rent for our 2 bed place. Great location in Booterstown, the place was renovated and furnished with designer furniture by the landlord a couple years ago so is very comfortable and somehwere we're proud to come home to. We have a good relationship with the landlord, who actually lives abroad, so are extremely happy where we are.

    That being said, while I am confident the price we pay represents one of the best value rentals I have seen on Daft for the quality and location, we also are able to save a healthy amount each month, but having looked at what is out there on Daft the past few weeks, we will look to reduce our budget to max 1800 when the 12 months of our lease are up.

    These are some nice places on Daft from a very quick search, in great locations which we would happily rent if it meant an extra €250 to €600 per month in our pockets!

    www.daft.ie/22025531
    www.daft.ie/22025934
    www.daft.ie/22025566


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,865 ✭✭✭✭Dav010


    Ozark707 wrote: »
    I suspect Airbnb rates are going to have to come down quite a bit as well. If they come down a good bit will it be worth to go through with it? I can understand why LL's went for it while rates were high but that would appear to be unsustainable in the short to medium term.

    I’m not so sure. Airbnb’s will open a lot quicker than hotels, won’t have social distancing concerns etc on top of the established benefits over hotels. I have my rates the same as last year and am still getting strong bookings for last quarter of this year. This year overall will be bad, but as most of my bookings are domestic, I’m confident about next year when this years events are rescheduled and more people stay in Ireland.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,865 ✭✭✭✭Dav010


    Ozark707 wrote: »
    I am nearly sure the guy who collates these numbers excludes anything marked as 'Short term'. As many of these short term places are reverting to longer lettings it is probably one of the main reasons the availability numbers are going up so much.

    There is another thread where a poster is looking for apartment in Dublin and has been told by many EAs/LLs that max lease is 5 months. In other words, short term let before Part4 rights kick in so that property can be relet to students or go back to short let platforms.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,128 ✭✭✭✭MadYaker


    With working from home becoming the norm now for office jobs at least surely a lot of people paying big rents like 2k a month for a 2 bed will realise that this a colossal waste of money and move out of dublin to somewhere cheaper? I'm renting a 3 bed house to myself for half of that.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,061 ✭✭✭DubCount


    MadYaker wrote: »
    With working from home becoming the norm now for office jobs at least surely a lot of people paying big rents like 2k a month for a 2 bed will realise that this a colossal waste of money and move out of dublin to somewhere cheaper? I'm renting a 3 bed house to myself for half of that.

    For the moment, working from home is the norm. Long term, I doubt companies are ready to completely give up on face to face contact.

    The reasons people want to rent in Dublin City Centre are not all connected to employment. Young people, with good salaries, want to be near clubs, bars, restaurants, gyms etc.. Not everyone wants to live in rural Ireland miles from the nearest bit of social life.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,368 ✭✭✭JimmyVik


    Ozark707 wrote: »
    I am nearly sure the guy who collates these numbers excludes anything marked as 'Short term'. As many of these short term places are reverting to longer lettings it is probably one of the main reasons the availability numbers are going up so much.




    I was looking over the last few weeks.
    90% of the ones who eventually got back to me were only offering short term rentals. Drove me mad. If it had been in the advertisements I wouldnt have bothered at all.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,368 ✭✭✭JimmyVik


    Dav010 wrote: »
    There is another thread where a poster is looking for apartment in Dublin and has been told by many EAs/LLs that max lease is 5 months. In other words, short term let before Part4 rights kick in so that property can be relet to students or go back to short let platforms.




    That was probably me.
    So annoying I just gave up and i'll stay where I am.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,865 ✭✭✭Blut2


    Hubertj wrote: »
    Where will they go though? World is a sh*t show. How does the Irish welfare system stack up vs others with or without the Covid payment?

    They'll go back home. Better to be unemployed and living in the family house in Poland or Brazil or wherever else than unemployed in Dublin, paying 700euro a month rent plus sky high living costs. A lot of them either aren't eligible for welfare here, or are under 25 so only at much reduced rates. And even if they can get full welfare here 200euro a week would barely cover rent, nevermind living.

    The people thinking the rental market is going to recover within a few months are nuts. The current projection for unemployment this year in Ireland is 23% - and thats probably optimistic, its getting worse with every week's new prediction.

    And thats also not accounting for the "temporarily" unemployed people on the special covid payment, if you include them unemployment is currently approaching 45%. Theres no way all of those people are going to go straight back into work in June, a huge chunk of them are retail/hospitality/tourism workers who'll be going onto the normal dole for a long time to come.

    We're going to be in a scenario with 30%+ unemployment, with a huge chunk of that concentrated in hospitality/tourism/retail sectors. ie sectors that predominantly are staffed by the young people who're renters.


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,587 ✭✭✭✭Muahahaha


    MadYaker wrote: »
    With working from home becoming the norm now for office jobs at least surely a lot of people paying big rents like 2k a month for a 2 bed will realise that this a colossal waste of money and move out of dublin to somewhere cheaper? I'm renting a 3 bed house to myself for half of that.

    Yeah I think WFH is going to fundamentally change the working landscape. Not saying that everyone will get it but even if only 20% of workers who can WFH end up doing so then that has knock on effects on where they live and on rental prices. People are tired of 3 hour daily commutes and the new WFH regime operating right now has solidified that for them, for those paying massive rents they might reconsider a move out of the city and WFH so they can save to buy their own house someday. The genie is out of the bottle and it cant be put back in. Employers who dont allow WFH will find their employees gravitate to companies that do allow it.
    Blut2 wrote: »
    They'll go back home. Better to be unemployed and living in the family house in Poland or Brazil or wherever else than unemployed in Dublin

    We're going to be in a scenario with 30%+ unemployment, with a huge chunk of that concentrated in hospitality/tourism/retail sectors. ie sectors that predominantly are staffed by the young people who're renters.

    Yeah I think the renters from hospitality and language student sectors have little choice now but head to whereever home and a free bed is. That too has knock on effects on the price of rent.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,659 ✭✭✭Sunny Disposition


    Muahahaha wrote: »
    Yeah I think WFH is going to fundamentally change the working landscape. Not saying that everyone will get it but even if only 20% of workers who can WFH end up doing so then that has knock on effects on where they live and on rental prices. People are tired of 3 hour daily commutes and the new WFH regime operating right now has solidified that for them, for those paying massive rents they might reconsider a move out of the city and WFH so they can save to buy their own house someday. The genie is out of the bottle and it cant be put back in. Employers who dont allow WFH will find their employees gravitate to companies that do allow it.



    Yeah I think the renters from hospitality and language student sectors have little choice now but head to whereever home and a free bed is. That too has knock on effects on the price of rent.

    This is it, if 20% are working from home even three days a week then paying Dublin rents won’t make sense for a large enough amount of people to smash the market.
    People who really want city centre type living will still want to live there of course, but many people who would have moved to base themselves in Dublin or within 40 miles of it in previous generations won’t be coming.
    The property market, not just in Dublin or even Ireland but all over the developed world, is going into a new phase. The era of almost complete dominance of big cities in the jobs market has already ended.
    It’s not only the residential market, commercial property prices are going to fall hugely. There’s no great need for most of the shops that are currently closed to reopen. It can all be done for far less expense online. Loads of offices will stay shut too, why would you pay thousands a week if your workers can do everything at home?
    I got out of Dublin property just before this, very lucky, the peak is passed and the drop could be very hard in the short term, but the long term as in the next 20 years, is far worse.
    It might make sense for someone to buy in Dublin if they are happy to live in the house long term. But taking on a buy to let would be crazy.


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