Covid19 Part XVI- 21,983 in ROI (1,339 deaths) 3,881 in NI (404 deaths)(05/05)Read OP

podgeandrodge · 29-04-2020 02:58PM

Gynoid wrote: »

Hahaha summarises my response exactly. And made me laugh.

But unfortunately it is not a laughing matter. Gardaí should be made aware, I sent an email, but others should too.

Organising a community gathering...the mind boggles.

tobefrank321 · 29-04-2020 03:04PM

quokula wrote: »

Yes, because on the scale of a country of millions of people, 580 deaths isn't out of the ordinary and is not going to move that scale, particularly if many of them may have been very elderly people some of whom may have otherwise died in a similar time period.

The point of looking at the excess death rate is that people struggle to comprehend what a large or small number is on a national scale, and attempt to gauge it by international comparison, but it is impossible to have a comparison between a country like Ireland which reports every single case or probably case we know about in all settings, and many other countries who only report cases who were hospitalised and tested positive.

The lack of excess deaths show that, relative to all of our closest neighbours who have huge numbers of excess deaths, we are coping very well.

Re Austria 580 deaths may not be that significant, but you wouldn't expect their death rate to go down substantially at a time like this.

It is perfectly possible to compare Ireland with certain countries such as Sweden who attempt to report every death in every scenario including care homes. At it stands, Ireland has 239 per million from covid 19, Sweden 231.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104709/coronavirus-deaths-worldwide-per-million-inhabitants/

We are doing worse than a country that has opted down the herd immunity route and have kept most of their economy open as well as most schools.

So its puzzling that while they have reported a spike in excess deaths, we like Austria are showing lower than usual rate of deaths on that chart. Maybe there's a valid explanation for it such as the Swedes not suffering as many flu deaths as us over their winters.

bekker · 29-04-2020 03:04PM

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Yes, but they are also showing deaths lower than ever in Austria and they have 580 deaths from covid 19.

Looking at that graph it says Irelands death rate is also at a low for the last couple of years. I'm guessing there is something wrong here, eg a delay notifying deaths from Ireland.

Model used assumes regular consistent flow of data (cf Correction for delay).

That has not been a feature of Ireland's reporting of COVID-19 deaths, indeed there is no way of knowing if 2020 Irish deaths have even been supplied to the model.

'Excess mortality
Graphs showing the weekly excess deaths (deviation in mortality from the expected level) in the data-providing EuroMOMO partner countries for the past years, all ages and by age groups.'

caveat emptor · 29-04-2020 03:07PM

Racing Ireland chief defends decision for Cheltenham to have gone ahead a la "how were we to know". Another example of the "hindsight defence". Wonder will it become a thing like the Nuremberg

“The irony is that while Cheltenham was going ahead and people were at the races, the pubs back in Ireland were packed with people watching Cheltenham, but it certainly couldn’t have come at a worse week, it was unfortunate because it was the last major sporting event to take place. Should it have taken place? With hindsight, probably no but everyone’s wise after the event.”

He then goes for a straight Nuremberg defence.

Kavanagh adds that he has “some sympathy for the Cheltenham authorities” as “the idea of saying in the middle of their Festival, we’re aborting after two days or we’re going behind closed doors when your government is telling you not to, the government is saying that we’re happy for you not to and when you’ve got so many people in situ, it’s not easy.”

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2020/apr/29/racing-ireland-chief-says-cheltenham-festival-should-probably-not-have-taken-place-horse-racing

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superior_orders

Gynoid · 29-04-2020 03:07PM

podgeandrodge wrote: »

But unfortunately it is not a laughing matter. Gardaí should be made aware, I sent an email, but others should too.

Organising a community gathering...the mind boggles.

I was not laughing at the event which is almost incomprehensible, the response is funny though. Yes, the mind boggles.

ek motor · 29-04-2020 03:08PM

445 more deaths in England today , including a 14 year old with no known underlying conditions , according to BBC

podgeandrodge · 29-04-2020 03:11PM

Gynoid wrote: »

I was not laughing at the event which is almost incomprehensible, the response is funny though. Yes, the mind boggles.

Oh, I know that Gynoid, sorry, didn't mean to imply that!

Hopefully the Gardaí will do something, it's particulary annoying to see an outfit that really should know better, and indeed who have posted elsewhere on their facebook page about staying at home except for food/exercise, to lose the plot like this.

cameramonkey · 29-04-2020 03:13PM

Gael23 wrote: »

How many tests are currently being done?

just under 6000 per day last week on average.

29-04-2020 03:14PM

bekker wrote: »

Model used assumes regular consistent flow of data (cf Correction for delay).

That has not been a feature of Ireland's reporting of COVID-19 deaths, indeed there is no way of knowing if 2020 Irish deaths have even been supplied to the model.

I suspect they haven't.

About 30,000 people a year die in Ireland, so about 2,500 a month give or take.

Close to 1,000 people must have died in April from C19, just taking into account the cases we know about.

That is a 25-30% uplift on normal death rate and based only on cases we are pretty sure of.

Of course some of those 1,000 people might have died in April anyway, but it would be stretching credulity to suggest all or nearly all of them would have. And although there might be some deaths avoided due to no traffic etc, there's also the factor of people avoiding doctors and hospitals to factor in, which would add to the total.

A simpler explanation is that for whatever reason our data isn't yet accurate or supplied in the model.

Martina1991 · 29-04-2020 03:27PM

Gael23 wrote: »

How many tests are currently being done?

According to yesterday's press briefing there was 41,470 tests processed in the last week.

5,335 of those were positive, giving a positivity rate of 12.9%.

Total tests performed to date 153,054

tobefrank321 · 29-04-2020 03:33PM

I took a look at rip.ie. While not a perfect metric for excess deaths, it gives you a rough idea.

For the week 22-29th April 2019, it has 24 pages of deaths in Ireland.

For the week 22-29th April 2020, it has 28 pages of deaths in Ireland.

So 4 extra pages.

Hector Savage · 29-04-2020 03:38PM

Third of hospitalised Covid-19 patients in UK have died, study finds

James Gallagher

Health and science correspondent, BBC News

The biggest study of Covid-19 patients in the UK shows a third admitted to hospital have died.

Just under half have been discharged, with the rest still being treated.

Prof Calum Semple, the chief investigator from the University of Liverpool, said the "crude hospital fatality rate is of the same magnitude as Ebola".

He said around 35-40% of hospitalised Ebola patients die.

"People need to hear this... this is an incredibly dangerous disease."

Nearly 17,000 patients from 166 hospitals were part of the study. Obesity and age both increased the risk of death.

The study also confirmed that men are more likely to have severe disease, and the gap between outcomes for men and women gets wider with age.

Scaremongering horse**** from the BBC, talk about fiddled stats comparing this to Ebola.

tobefrank321 · 29-04-2020 03:46PM

Hector Savage wrote: »

Scaremongering horse**** from the BBC, talk about fiddled stats comparing this to Ebola.

Possibly.

The male factor in morbidity with this virus is now clear.

If you are male with obesity, diabetes, hypertension and/or over 80, your chances of death or ending up in ICU go up hugely. There are a couple other factors too.

These are the kind of people we need to target for cocooning when we lift restrictions.

Gynoid · 29-04-2020 03:49PM

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Possibly.

The male factor in morbidity with this virus is now clear.

If you are male with obesity, diabetes, hypertension and/or over 80, your chances of death or ending up in ICU go up hugely. There are a couple other factors too.

These are the kind of people we need to target for cocooning when we lift restrictions.

Yikes in the under 80 bracket theres a lot of fellas you will be targeting there.

gabeeg · 29-04-2020 03:50PM

tobefrank321 wrote: »

I took a look at rip.ie. While not a perfect metric for excess deaths, it gives you a rough idea.

For the week 22-29th April 2019, it has 24 pages of deaths in Ireland.

For the week 22-29th April 2020, it has 28 pages of deaths in Ireland.

So 4 extra pages.

40 to a page, so 960 versus 1,120

tobefrank321 · 29-04-2020 03:51PM

Gynoid wrote: »

Yikes in the under 80 bracket theres a lot of fellas you will be targeting there.

Yep, but it would be better to target these people than target everyone for lockdown as is happening now.

Gynoid · 29-04-2020 03:53PM

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Yep, but it would be better to target these people than target everyone for lockdown as is happening now.

Ye won't be able to restart construction so

tobefrank321 · 29-04-2020 03:53PM

gabeeg wrote: »

40 to a page, so 960 versus 1,120

Its a rough estimate.

I tried another search, Monday to Sunday 4th week of April for the last 3 years.
2018 - 19 pages
2019 - 21 pages
2020 - 23 pages

So not as big a difference, but still some evidence of an excess.

hmmm · 29-04-2020 03:56PM

Wibbs wrote: »

It had eff all to do with our government and their "responsible actions". Did these "responsible actions" include dragging their heels over Paddy's Day?

Paddy's day was always going to be cancelled. The government took the best approach by waiting until the public were in favour before cancelling it. If they hadn't, there would have been resistance from powerful lobby groups like the vitners (who were shamed into closing).

Did these "responsible actions" include the screwups with testing, with contact tracing?

What screw-ups? We have massively improved our capacity to test, and are nearing Korean levels of testing per million people. The entire world was scrambling for test kits, swabs, reagents, and there are still huge supply issues.

Did these "responsible actions" include misinformation over visting the elderly in homes, or the non risk of asymptomatic spread by one of their so called experts?

People keep quoting the above as if it was the source of infections. Nursing homes have huge numbers of staff, the only way to control transmission into nursing homes is to reduce community transmission, everything else is just for show. There are also extreme worldwide shortages of PPE, we cannot then, cannot now, and likely cannot until well into the future supply PPE for every nursing home - besides which, nursing homes should have had their own PPE.

Did these "responsible actions" include the continuing lack of border checks

Border checks are a waste of resources and just theatre. You said yourself that many ill people are asymptomatic.

when a group of Traveller families can with caravans in tow drive into this country and make their way to Kildare with no checks in the middle of the biggest so called lockdown in Irish history?

Completely overblown story. Yes they shouldn't be doing it, are they responsible for even 1% of our infections, no.

crossman47 · 29-04-2020 03:58PM

gabeeg wrote: »

40 to a page, so 960 versus 1,120

A bit less as some deaths are there in duplicate or triplicate

gabeeg · 29-04-2020 03:59PM

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Its a rough estimate.

I tried another search, Monday to Sunday 4th week of April for the last 3 years.
2018 - 19 pages
2019 - 21 pages
2020 - 23 pages

So not as big a difference, but still some evidence of an excess.

It could also be evidence of more usage of the site.

Interesting, but hard to know if it's of any use without speaking to whoever runs the site.

tobefrank321 · 29-04-2020 04:02PM

crossman47 wrote: »

A bit less as some deaths are there in duplicate or triplicate

yes seems to be a feature of rip.ie that some deaths are entered multiple times.

CSO or an organisation like that might have more accurate death numbers.

eagle eye · 29-04-2020 04:03PM

hmmm wrote:

Paddy's day was always going to be cancelled. The government took the best approach by waiting until the public were in favour before cancelling it. If they hadn't, there would have been resistance from powerful lobby groups like the vitners (who were shamed into closing).

hmmm wrote:

What screw-ups? We have massively improved our capacity to test, and are nearing Korean levels of testing per million people. The entire world was scrambling for test kits, swabs, reagents, and there are still huge supply issues.

hmmm wrote:

People keep quoting the above as if it was the source of infections. Nursing homes have huge numbers of staff, the only way to control transmission into nursing homes is to reduce community transmission, everything else is just for show. There are also extreme worldwide shortages of PPE, we cannot then, cannot now, and likely cannot until well into the future supply PPE for every nursing home - besides which, nursing homes should have had their own PPE.

hmmm wrote:

Border checks are a waste of resources and just theatre. You said yourself that many ill people are asymptomatic.

hmmm wrote:

Completely overblown story. Yes they shouldn't be doing it, are they responsible for even 1% of our infections, no.

You are full of it.

That's the only answer this post deserves.

DevilsHaircut · 29-04-2020 04:05PM

Seamus Coffey has been doing RIP.ie calcs.

https://twitter.com/seamuscoffey/status/1254106762233470978

seamus · 29-04-2020 04:13PM

cameramonkey wrote: »

They tested on average 5924 per day last week. Do you think they will have the capacity to increase that by 4K a day over the next week?

They had capacity to test 8,500 a day last week that wasn't fully used because the testing criteria were so tight.

So yes, I do think they can expand capacity by 1,500 tests a day, and they will use them too with the looser criteria.

Corkgirl20 · 29-04-2020 04:17PM

Does anybody know where I can access the NPHET draft about the phases of reopening, I’ve seen it referred to in the Irish Times today but can’t find the draft online.

“Initial drafts of the plan spaced the phases out in periods between early May and September, although no dates are on the latest draft being considered by NPHET”

Thanks

Fr_Dougal · 29-04-2020 04:17PM

seamus wrote: »

They had capacity to test 8,500 a day last week that wasn't fully used because the testing criteria were so tight.

So yes, I do think they can expand capacity by 1,500 tests a day, and they will use them too with the looser criteria.

Introducing antibody testing will be the real game changer here.

is_that_so · 29-04-2020 04:18PM

Corkgirl20 wrote: »

Does anybody know where I can access the NPHET draft about the phases of reopening, I’ve seen it referred to in the Irish Times today but can’t find the draft online.

“Initial drafts of the plan spaced the phases out in periods between early May and September, although no dates are on the latest draft being considered by NPHET”

Thanks

That's a government draft not NEPHT and it may never be seen. It will change in form and content.

MonkieSocks · 29-04-2020 04:19PM

Deleted User wrote: »

While not trusting the report, the virus is not dust. In basic terms, a small amount will be inhaled through droplets, some of these will bind to receptors in our cells and gain access to use the human cell to replicate. Virus particles will then multiply and subsequently be passed on to surfaces and other people. The point of the study re children was they don't have the receptors, therefore the virus cant replicate and pass on to other people. I would be highly sceptical of that however

They have receptors in their upper airways.

Why do children infected with the coronavirus fare better than adults?

“The virus is so new that we don’t really know”, says Roberts, who is also director of the David Hide Asthma and Allergy Research Centre, in Newport, UK.

“One of the likely reasons is that the virus needs a protein on the surface of a cell (a receptor) to get into the inside of a cell and start causing problems,” he says.

“The coronavirus seems to use the Angiotensin converting enzyme II (ACE-2) receptor for this purpose.

It may be that children have less ACE-2 receptors in their lower airways (lungs) than in their upper airways, which is why it is their upper airways (nose, mouths and throats) that are predominantly affected.”

This may explain why children infected with the coronavirus seem to get more of a cold rather than a pneumonia or the life threatening Sars picture that is seen in adults.

The coronavirus’s affinity for the ACE-2 receptor was demonstrated in cell lines and in mouse models in laboratory studies as early as 2003, and in genome studies of novel coronaviruses RsSHC014 and Rs3367 (related, but not identical, to the SARS coronavirus) isolated from Chinese horseshoe bats in 2013.

And if can get it....they can spread it

Full Article here

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200330-coronavirus-are-children-immune-to-covid-19

is_that_so · 29-04-2020 04:19PM

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

Introducing antibody testing will be the real game changer here.

Nothing accurate enough yet for that.

Covid19 Part XVI- 21,983 in ROI (1,339 deaths) 3,881 in NI (404 deaths)(05/05)Read OP

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