Covid19 Part XVI- 21,983 in ROI (1,339 deaths) 3,881 in NI (404 deaths)(05/05)Read OP

is_that_so · 29-04-2020 04:22PM

Research funding approved.

At the very beginning of briefing.

https://twitter.com/i/broadcasts/1mnxeQQLzkoxX

GM228 · 29-04-2020 04:22PM

Corkgirl20 wrote: »

Does anybody know where I can access the NPHET draft about the phases of reopening, I’ve seen it referred to in the Irish Times today but can’t find the draft online.

“Initial drafts of the plan spaced the phases out in periods between early May and September, although no dates are on the latest draft being considered by NPHET”

Thanks

The plan will be announced in the coming days by the Taoiseach.

New Home · 29-04-2020 04:24PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Massive difference between a dentist drilling in someones mouth at a distance of a few inches and going for a run in the park. Where there is no close contact and your in open spaces there is no benefit to wearing a mask. Public transport, indoors or group environments is a different matter

Small study and all that, but... https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2271-3

Wibbs wrote: »

Reading some of the Chinese research into kids, they found that even though infected, even if they were showing symptoms like fever and blocked noses they didn't find any children with lung involvement. It seemed to stay in the upper respiratory tract, the nasal bits and bobs.

Again, some of the first reported cases in children were discovered through CT scans - the children appeared to be asymptomatic, but had suffered lung damage.

caveat emptor wrote: »

Racing Ireland chief defends decision for Cheltenham to have gone ahead a la "how were we to know". Another example of the "hindsight defence". Wonder will it become a thing like the Nuremberg

He then goes for a straight Nuremberg defence.

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2020/apr/29/racing-ireland-chief-says-cheltenham-festival-should-probably-not-have-taken-place-horse-racing

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superior_orders

EXACTLY! "I was only obeying orders."

Gael23 · 29-04-2020 04:25PM

Martina1991 wrote: »

According to yesterday's press briefing there was 41,470 tests processed in the last week.

5,335 of those were positive, giving a positivity rate of 12.9%.

Total tests performed to date 153,054

So we need to more than double the amount of testing being done before this ends?

OscarMIlde · 29-04-2020 04:26PM

Strazdas wrote: »

Interesting to hear Cillian de Gascun saying on Prime Time he is not a fan of latex gloves or similar for protecting against the virus

They're not as protective as nitrile gloves, which is what people working with viruses use. You also need to treat the gloves themselves as contaminated once you put them on, they are for protecting your hands only. For example put hand sanitiser on your gloves before entering supermarket, don't touch your mouth or eyes while wearing them, dispose of them carefully and wash your hands immediately afterwards to be sure.

is_that_so · 29-04-2020 04:27PM

Gael23 wrote: »

So we need to more than double the amount of testing being done before this ends?

Actually we need to be able to turn it all around fast, 24H or so and have that large capacity.

New Home · 29-04-2020 04:30PM

OscarMIlde wrote: »

They're not as protective as nitrile gloves, which is what people working with viruses use. You also need to treat the gloves themselves as contaminated once you put them on, they are for protecting your hands only. For example put hand sanitiser on your gloves before entering supermarket, don't touch your mouth or eyes while wearing them, dispose of them carefully and wash your hands immediately afterwards to be sure.

And some people are allergic to latex, too. Vinyl gloves work ok, too, following the same principle.

29-04-2020 04:38PM

eagle eye wrote: »

You are full of it.

That's the only answer this post deserves.

Good point, cogently made

29-04-2020 04:40PM

DevilsHaircut wrote: »

Seamus Coffey has been doing RIP.ie calcs.

https://twitter.com/seamuscoffey/status/1254106762233470978

That is an excellent analysis and clearly illustrates we are past the peak

D.Q · 29-04-2020 04:44PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

That is an excellent analysis and clearly illustrates we are past the peak

Past the first peak maybe

29-04-2020 04:47PM

Gael23 wrote: »

So we need to more than double the amount of testing being done before this ends?

Difference between capacity and requirement. In my 20's I had the capacity to drink 10 pints. Most nights when I went out I was happy to stop at 5 or 6 and that satisfied my requirements, but was safe in the knowledge that if I had the requirement to go on a long session I had the capacity for 10

podgeandrodge · 29-04-2020 04:48PM

D.Q wrote: »

Past the first peak maybe

I really hope that, regardless of peaks and troughs in general society, which we may need to live with for quite a while, that the peaks in nursing home deaths has been reached for once and for all.

GM228 · 29-04-2020 04:48PM

D.Q wrote: »

Past the first peak maybe

By definition you can only have one peak, unless you break down into individual peaks per wave, in which case we are only over a spike, but hopefully it is past the peak.

freshpopcorn · 29-04-2020 04:53PM

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Fr_Dougal · 29-04-2020 05:00PM

Deleted User wrote: »

That is an excellent analysis and clearly illustrates we are past the peak

That graph is up until the 23rd. Yesterday’s numbers were a jump of 300% on the previous days numbers. We don’t have enough data to say we’re anywhere past peak.

Kermit.de.frog · 29-04-2020 05:09PM

UK reports 4,419 additional deaths from Coronavirus

From now on figures from all settings to be included in daily tallies

is_that_so · 29-04-2020 05:10PM

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

That graph is up until the 23rd. Yesterday’s numbers were a jump of 300% on the previous days numbers. We don’t have enough data to say we’re anywhere past peak.

Notified is not current deaths, still quite a few from earlier in the month.

Kermit.de.frog · 29-04-2020 05:17PM

DOH briefing at 8pm this evening.

Stheno · 29-04-2020 05:17PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

UK reports 4,419 additional deaths from Coronavirus

From now on figures from all settings to be included in daily tallies

Does that include the deaths that were previously not reported?

GM228 · 29-04-2020 05:21PM

Stheno wrote: »

Does that include the deaths that were previously not reported?

Yes, 3,811 previous deaths, nursing homes etc now included.

39% of deaths in care homes, 52% in hospitals and 9% in "homes or non-institutional settings".

Kermit.de.frog · 29-04-2020 05:23PM

Stheno wrote: »

Does that include the deaths that were previously not reported?

Yes, but it's still short of actual figures because it mostly includes those who tested positive at a time the UK was not doing community testing.

In other words the real figures as the FT reported are a multiple of that today.

Be interesting to see how they work those figures in.

At least from now on the daily tallies include all deaths which is what we do.

kilkenny31 · 29-04-2020 05:25PM

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

That graph is up until the 23rd. Yesterday’s numbers were a jump of 300% on the previous days numbers. We don’t have enough data to say we’re anywhere past peak.

I think if you look at the trend its safe to say we are. The tuesday after the weekend always shows a spike. The overall trend is steady and on the way down. Id say today we will see less than 30 same for the rest of the week. Maybe falling lower than 20 next week and so on.

Fr_Dougal · 29-04-2020 05:30PM

kilkenny31 wrote: »

I think if you look at the trend its safe to say we are. The tuesday after the weekend always shows a spike. The overall trend is steady and on the way down. Id say today we will see less than 30 same for the rest of the week. Maybe falling lower than 20 next week and so on.

It would be great if you’re right. Previously we’ve seen a day of low numbers, then a massive spike the next, or following day.

GM228 · 29-04-2020 05:30PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Yes, but it's still short of actual figures because it mostly includes those who tested positive at a time the UK was not doing community testing.

In other words the real figures as the FT reported are a multiple of that today.

Be interesting to see how they work those figures in.

At least from now on the daily tallies include all deaths which is what we do.

Though they are not listing probable deaths for Scotland or NI, just Wales and England so not quite where we are.

29-04-2020 05:32PM

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

That graph is up until the 23rd. Yesterday’s numbers were a jump of 300% on the previous days numbers. We don’t have enough data to say we’re anywhere past peak.

Just as monday was artificially low, yesterday was artificially high. And the trend was based on RIP.ie data and aligns closely with the by day of death trend.

cameramonkey · 29-04-2020 05:33PM

seamus wrote: »

They had capacity to test 8,500 a day last week that wasn't fully used because the testing criteria were so tight.

So yes, I do think they can expand capacity by 1,500 tests a day, and they will use them too with the looser criteria.

Do you think they will then have the capacity to turn tests around in 24 hours so they will be useful for tracking and tracing. Do you think they have a good enough infrastructure for track and trace? Ireland has done double the amount of testing per head that South Korea has but they have been able to turn them around quickly and then act on information, we on the other hand have taken weeks and failed to track and trace as has been reported by many.

Where is the app?

29-04-2020 05:35PM

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

It would be great if you’re right. Previously we’ve seen a day of low numbers, then a massive spike the next, or following day.

Your mistake is looking day to day. The reporting is erratic therefore it’s a fools errand to look for signs in daily data. Applies equally to Monday and Tuesday lest I be accused of only looking to the positive. Trend over a few days is what tell you direction.

GM228 · 29-04-2020 05:37PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Your mistake is looking day to day. The reporting is erratic therefore it’s a fools errand to look for signs in daily data. Applies equally to Monday and Tuesday lest I be accused of only looking to the positive. Trend over a few days is what tell you direction.

Indeed, and here's the day 1, 10, 7 and 3 day reporting averages for each day.

Day

1

| 29/02/2020 | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0% | N/A | N/A | N/A

2

| 01/03/2020 | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0% | N/A | N/A | N/A

3

| 02/03/2020 | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | 0% | 0% | N/A | N/A | 0%

4

| 03/03/2020 | 25.0% | N/A | N/A | 33% | 0% | N/A | N/A | 0%

5

| 04/03/2020 | 60.0% | N/A | N/A | 100% | 60% | N/A | N/A | 100%

6

| 05/03/2020 | 69.4% | N/A | N/A | 139% | 63% | N/A | N/A | 125%

7

| 06/03/2020 | 65.0% | N/A | 65% | 118% | 49% | N/A | 49% | 115%

8

| 07/03/2020 | 57.6% | N/A | 66% | 54% | 33% | N/A | 38% | -11%

9

| 08/03/2020 | 52.4% | N/A | 67% | 18% | 41% | N/A | 52% | -3%

10

| 09/03/2020 | 49% | 49% | 69% | 10% | 42% | 42% | 59% | 23%

11

| 10/03/2020 | 48% | 53% | 61% | 22% | 59% | 65% | 93% | 128%

12

| 11/03/2020 | 46% | 55% | 36% | 27% | 53% | 64% | 49% | 91%

13

| 12/03/2020 | 47% | 62% | 29% | 44% | 65% | 84% | 66% | 141%

14

| 13/03/2020 | 46% | 54% | 27% | 39% | 58% | 81% | 67% | 55%

15

| 14/03/2020 | 46% | 39% | 33% | 45% | 61% | 61% | 92% | 90%

16

| 15/03/2020 | 45% | 30% | 35% | 34% | 57% | 54% | 78% | 24%

17

| 16/03/2020 | 44% | 30% | 38% | 35% | 56% | 60% | 76% | 44%

18

| 17/03/2020 | 43% | 32% | 36% | 31% | 54% | 71% | 46% | 22%

19

| 18/03/2020 | 43% | 34% | 36% | 29% | 52% | 61% | 49% | 23%

20

| 19/03/2020 | 43% | 37% | 35% | 36% | 57% | 72% | 43% | 64%

21

| 20/03/2020 | 42% | 36% | 34% | 33% | 53% | 46% | 42% | 44%

22

| 21/03/2020 | 41% | 34% | 30% | 30% | 49% | 45% | 25% | 35%

23

| 22/03/2020 | 40% | 30% | 28% | 18% | 48% | 27% | 28% | -11%

24

| 23/03/2020 | 39% | 29% | 27% | 18% | 49% | 37% | 34% | 27%

25

| 24/03/2020 | 38% | 27% | 25% | 19% | 47% | 27% | 29% | 31%

26

| 25/03/2020 | 37% | 25% | 24% | 20% | 46% | 28% | 30% | 30%

27

| 26/03/2020 | 37% | 24% | 18% | 17% | 45% | 26% | 9% | 6%

28

| 27/03/2020 | 36% | 22% | 18% | 17% | 44% | 25% | 17% | 14%

29

| 28/03/2020 | 35% | 21% | 17% | 16% | 42% | 24% | 19% | 8%

30

| 29/03/2020 | 34% | 17% | 16% | 13% | 40% | 5% | 12% | -5%

31

| 30/03/2020 | 34% | 16% | 15% | 11% | 40% | 13% | 7% | 4%

32

| 31/03/2020 | 33% | 15% | 14% | 10% | 39% | 16% | 9% | 9%

33

| 01/04/2020 | 32% | 14% | 12% | 10% | 37% | 10% | 2% | 8%

34

| 02/04/2020 | 31% | 13% | 11% | 10% | 38% | 11% | 14% | 22%

35

| 03/04/2020 | 31% | 12% | 11% | 10% | 37% | 13% | 12% | 20%

36

| 04/04/2020 | 30% | 11% | 10% | 10% | 36% | 9% | 9% | 24%

37

| 05/04/2020 | 30% | 11% | 10% | 9% | 35% | 10% | 16% | 0%

38

| 06/04/2020 | 29% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 34% | 7% | 9% | -3%

39

| 07/04/2020 | 28% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 33% | 7% | 6% | 2%

40

| 08/04/2020 | 28% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 32% | 11% | 12% | -2%

41

| 09/04/2020 | 27% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 32% | 10% | 5% | 12%

42

| 10/04/2020 | 27% | 10% | 10% | 13% | 37% | 29% | 33% | 82%

43

| 11/04/2020 | 27% | 10% | 10% | 14% | 35% | 28% | 30% | 65%

44

| 12/04/2020 | 26% | 10% | 10% | 14% | 34% | 18% | 25% | 48%

45

| 13/04/2020 | 26% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 34% | 21% | 31% | -7%

46

| 14/04/2020 | 26% | 10% | 11% | 9% | 33% | 21% | 30% | 2%

47

| 15/04/2020 | 25% | 10% | 11% | 9% | 32% | 22% | 33% | 16%

48

| 16/04/2020 | 25% | 10% | 11% | 8% | 31% | 20% | 23% | -7%

49

| 17/04/2020 | 25% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 30% | 20% | -6% | -2%

50

| 18/04/2020 | 24% | 9% | 7% | 6% | 30% | 21% | 2% | -8%

51

| 19/04/2020 | 24% | 9% | 7% | 5% | 29% | 13% | -2% | -10%

52

| 20/04/2020 | 23% | 7% | 6% | 4% | 28% | -9% | -10% | -15%

53

| 21/04/2020 | 23% | 6% | 5% | 3% | 27% | -5% | -8% | -20%

54

| 22/04/2020 | 23% | 6% | 4% | 3% | 28% | 3% | -3% | 14%

55

| 23/04/2020 | 22% | 5% | 4% | 4% | 28% | 4% | 9% | 36%

56

| 24/04/2020 | 22% | 5% | 4% | 4% | 27% | 2% | 3% | 24%

57

| 25/04/2020 | 22% | 4% | 3% | 4% | 26% | -5% | -3% | -8%

58

| 26/04/2020 | 21% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 27% | 7% | 15% | 4%

59

| 27/04/2020 | 21% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 26% | 3% | 11% | 2%

60

| 28/04/2020 | 21% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 25% | -2% | 5% | 0%

▲ = Daily case increase averaged over the past 10, 7 and 3 days and from day 1
■ = Daily case reporting change averaged over the past 10, 7 and 3 days and from day 1

I must produce a similar chart based on deaths.

spookwoman · 29-04-2020 05:38PM

Epidemiology of COVID-19 in Ireland - daily reports don't add up last few days
19,383 confirmed cases for midnight 26th, 19,095 for the 25th and 18,431 for the 24th. Yet they say 415 new cases since previous day on the 26th and 690 for the 25th.
Where are they getting these numbers

podgeandrodge · 29-04-2020 05:42PM

podgeandrodge wrote: »

What's going on here - am I misunderstanding something:

Southside Partnership DLR

We are delighted to facilitate the Ballybrack neighbourhood book sharing event this Thursday morning, April 30 , 10am-12 noon, in the Ballybrack Project Centre, Coolevin. All books are free, sanitised and bound in cling film. Social distancing will be observed. Your safety and health is our concern. Contact Gina Hogan for more information (087) 793 0946

On their facebook page - https://www.facebook.com/pg/sspship/posts/

They have a logo saying Stay Safe Stay at Home !

Wibbs wrote: »

Jesus. I can't even... Sanitised and bound in cling film. It would be funny if it wasn't so retarded.

I'm just reposting this in case anyone missed the opportunity to see real life proof that there are idiots in society right now making sure the lockdown can be extended.

Covid19 Part XVI- 21,983 in ROI (1,339 deaths) 3,881 in NI (404 deaths)(05/05)Read OP

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