Relaxation of restrictions Part II

growleaves · 29-04-2020 04:00PM

Deleted User wrote: »

The evidence being the success of the lockdowns

You are another person who hasn't so much as glanced at a summary of the models you are defending.

The numbers of deaths were not revised downwards because of "the success of the lockdowns".

The original models included predictions about the number of deaths with "optimal mitigation policies" of isolation, quarantining, cocooning etc. (Imperial)

However, the resulting mitigated epidemic would still likely result in hundreds of thousands of deaths and health systems…being overwhelmed many times over. (Imperial)

The main defense of the lockdown to date is that the polite Swedish people avoided 100,000s of inevitable deaths by behaving themselves, and that other Northern Europeans are incapable of same.

is_that_so · 29-04-2020 04:00PM

Deleted User wrote: »

They can, by agreeing to elect a new Taoiseach

They've already had a bit of stab at it and failed miserably. Not going to happen except with the putative government partners. We should finally see some movement over the next week or so on government formation seeing as we/they have feck all else to do but wait!

Rodin · 29-04-2020 04:00PM

SNNUS wrote: »

Bring your own then, this is very basic stuff, you will never get past the baby steps without common sense.

Common sense isn't very common.

My point is that people don't actually know how to disinfect their hands properly.
They put their hands on a dirty item but don't know how to disinfect.
Better not to touch the dirty item in the first place.

road_high · 29-04-2020 04:01PM

Thelonious Monk wrote: »

Gyms will surely be one of the last things to open. Don't worry about it, everyone else is terribly out of shape too.

I’ve been doing online classes if anyone else is desperate- there’s lots available online

KrustyUCC · 29-04-2020 04:01PM

Infini wrote: »

Honestly I'm not expecting any changes bar maybe some construction sites coming back online this weekend the new case numbers are still triple digits, until they fall into the low 20's or single digits I can only see this lasting another 2 weeks at least, it sucks for people I know it's that feeling of "cabin fever" getting some they want some normalacy again or at least some progress but it would be better to keep going 2 more weeks to choke the life outta this thing than reopen too soon and see a repeat of the whole thing. Better to do it right the first time and endure it.

The majority of new cases are in nursing homes etc

Nothing to do with the general public

easypazz · 29-04-2020 04:01PM

alwald wrote: »

Let me get this straight, when you blame Holohan/government you like to compare Ireland to other countries for which you can't explain what's happening.

I am not having a go at you I just want to understand the credibility of your posts here

No, somebody else keeps comparing nursing homes in other countries, you will need to speak to them.:rolleyes:

easypazz · 29-04-2020 04:02PM

KrustyUCC wrote: »

The majority of new cases are in nursing homes etc

Nothing to do with the general public

And Holohan / HSE / Government don't want to admit this.

29-04-2020 04:02PM

Theboinkmaster wrote: »

COVID-19 has only killed about 1,200 in Ireland - over half of which were people in nursing homes on borrowed time anyway.

Compared to lockdown impact:

- people not going to ER/doctors
- people not being let into hospitals for required treatments e.g. cancer
- childline call volume +20%
- violence against women call volume +25%
- suicides due to social isolation and economic recession
- people dropping healthcare due to economic recession
- cuts in health service budgets next year and year after due to economic recession

Think it's pretty obvious.

Look what happened in Lombardy with a slow reaction to the virus, 13,500 dead in an area with a population of 10 million in just over two months. Analysis of mortality rates indicate it could be as much as 40% higher, but even at the 13,500 figure it translates to the potential for over 6,000 dead in Ireland in just two month if we had delayed our reaction by even a couple of weeks. And that's with a delayed lockdown not no lockdown. No measure of the restrictions can ignore the deaths that have been prevented already.

SNNUS · 29-04-2020 04:04PM

Rodin wrote: »

Common sense isn't very common.

My point is that people don't actually know how to disinfect their hands properly.
They put their hands on a dirty item but don't know how to disinfect.
Better not to touch the dirty item in the first place.

I agree but those who do not care about disinfecting their hands properly are the same types that ignore the lockdown restrictions, it could go on forever but they will do what the feck they want. A virus will not put manners on some people..

KrustyUCC · 29-04-2020 04:04PM

easypazz wrote: »

And Holohan / HSE / Government don't want to admit this.

We needed to test the crap out of nursing homes etc

That means an increase in cases

But don't use that as a stick to beat the general public with

is_that_so · 29-04-2020 04:04PM

growleaves wrote: »

You are another person who hasn't so much as glanced at a summary of the models you are defending.

The numbers of deaths were not revised downwards because of "the success of the lockdowns".

The original models included predictions about the number of deaths with "optimal mitigation policies" of isolation, quarantining, cocooning etc. (Imperial)

The main defense of the lockdown to date is that the polite Swedish people avoided 100,000s of inevitable deaths by behaving themselves, and that other Northern Europeans are incapable of same.

It really just draws attention to the fact that for their approach to work, we all need to be Swedish.

gozunda · 29-04-2020 04:04PM

Theboinkmaster wrote: »

COVID-19 has only killed about 1,200 in Ireland - over half of which were people in nursing homes on borrowed time anyway.

Compared to lockdown impact:

- people not going to ER/doctors
- people not being let into hospitals for required treatments e.g. cancer
- childline call volume +20%
- violence against women call volume +25%
- suicides due to social isolation and economic recession
- people dropping healthcare due to economic recession
- cuts in health service budgets next year and year after due to economic recession

Think it's pretty obvious.

Covid-19 has "only killed" (your words) 1200 precisely because of restrictions.

Older people and those needing care are not simply on "borrowed time" than you are (as you disgustingly put it.)

A couple of points.

People have been staying away from GPs and AE depts themselves for fear of being infected with Covid-19.

Hospitals were resources and staff were maximised towards tackling Covid-19 admissions.

Vulnerable people ie cancer patients (who are at serious risk from Covid-19) are currently cocooning. Day patients appointments etc cancelled for msny of the same reasons.

Yes children maybe be deeply unhappy with loss of social / school activities and may need a listening ear eg Childline

There is no current evidence that there is any observable increase in self harm or suicide despite this been pathetically used as a stick to malign the current requirement for restictions

Will there be an economic downturn globally next year? Yes there will. Restrictions or no restrictions - that's going happen. Will things get better - yes they will.

Using any of that as a party me-fein type propaganda to claim that we would all be better just carrying on as if nothing had happened is bullcrap. That much is pretty obvious.

is_that_so · 29-04-2020 04:06PM

easypazz wrote: »

And Holohan / HSE / Government don't want to admit this.

Not sure this is true at all, they've been perfectly upfront about the testing on that front.

Theboinkmaster · 29-04-2020 04:06PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Look what happened in Lombardy with a slow reaction to the virus, 13,500 dead in an area with a population of 10 million in just over two months. Analysis of mortality rates indicate it could be as much as 40% higher, but even at the 13,500 figure it translates to the potential for over 6,000 dead in Ireland in just two month if we had delayed our reaction by even a couple of weeks. And that's with a delayed lockdown not no lockdown. No measure of the restrictions can ignore the deaths that have been prevented already.

I 100% agree with the lockdown - buys time for health service to flatten curve and prepare for managing the virus for next 2 years.

7 weeks now it's over, time to re-open slowly over the coming months.

They've had enough time - we've done our part.

SusieBlue · 29-04-2020 04:06PM

showpony1 wrote: »

No wonder Leo is probably cracking up at this stage - TD's pleading with him to let a load of bloody doggos get their hair cut as an essential service.

Another fine example of people trivialising & sneering at other people’s legitimate concerns & worries.
Yeah you’re right, I want lockdown ended purely so I can get my dog a few highlights, I’ll get my nails done and then we’ll probably stop at the pub for a few scoops on our way home :rolleyes:

There was an article in my local paper this week about an elderly women who fell and hurt her hip and is now in hospital, where she is at a high risk of contracting the virus.
She injured herself trying to lift her dog into the bath. Her dog has dermatitis and requires a weekly medicated bath to treat his condition.
Her daughter, who gave the interview to the newspaper, said this was a service usually provided by her dog groomer but as they were closed & she was cocooning she was trying to do it herself.
She won’t be the first or last case of something like that happening. And regardless, if vets are allowed to open then so should groomers.
One is as necessary as the other, which you would understand if you had any experience with animals who have skin conditions or who require regular care.
Now do you see why this is an essential service?

easypazz · 29-04-2020 04:07PM

gozunda wrote: »

Will there be an economic downturn globally next year? Yes there will.

No there won't be. Well, its possible but highly unlikely.

Rodin · 29-04-2020 04:07PM

KrustyUCC wrote: »

The majority of new cases are in nursing homes etc

Nothing to do with the general public

If the nursing homes existed in a closed system then there'd be no problem.
But they don't.

Tell me how · 29-04-2020 04:07PM

Long_Wave wrote: »

Gyms are being opened up in America

America is paying little to no attention to science in many states.

Calhoun · 29-04-2020 04:08PM

I think the whole relaxing restrictions might fall apart when they start doing things like relaxing it on the over 70's ect.

You would swear it was an election time period and they were giving away a sweetener. Allot of people observing restrictions so those vulnerable over 70's can be ok but if they start picking sections of society i can see it unravel very fast.

Theboinkmaster · 29-04-2020 04:08PM

thegetawaycar wrote: »

Holy ****, whatever about the rest of your post, the part in bold is striking.

Might not be nice to say but it's true - you can't lock down 99% of the population and destroy many of their lives for the benefit of 1%.

The majority of our issues with this virus (>50%) are in nursing homes, not general public.

Time to end lockdown and ease back into life starting Monday and over the next few months.

hmmm · 29-04-2020 04:09PM

is_that_so wrote: »

It really just draws attention to the fact that for their approach to work, we all need to be Swedish.

The Irish public have been great at how we responded, but it was only a couple of weeks it was all #stayathome and "clap for carers", now it's "this can't go on much longer" and "you can't lock down 99% of the population and destroy many of their lives for the benefit of 1%".

The Swedes have a very different society and outlook than we have, I expect they can carry on their soft lockdown for a very long time.

is_that_so · 29-04-2020 04:09PM

KrustyUCC wrote: »

The majority of new cases are in nursing homes etc

Nothing to do with the general public

They originally spread from the community.

Rodin · 29-04-2020 04:09PM

SNNUS wrote: »

I agree but those who do not care about disinfecting their hands properly are the same types that ignore the lockdown restrictions, it could go on forever but they will do what the feck they want. A virus will not put manners on some people..

That's the guards/govt/judiciary's job.... and they're not doing it.
People do what they get away with.

ChikiChiki · 29-04-2020 04:10PM

Theboinkmaster wrote: »

COVID-19 has only killed about 1,200 in Ireland - over half of which were people in nursing homes on borrowed time anyway.

Compared to lockdown impact:

- people not going to ER/doctors
- people not being let into hospitals for required treatments e.g. cancer
- childline call volume +20%
- violence against women call volume +25%
- suicides due to social isolation and economic recession
- people dropping healthcare due to economic recession
- cuts in health service budgets next year and year after due to economic recession

Think it's pretty obvious.

Thought as much, you can't back it up. So the lockdown is not killing people as you stated and in fact saving people.

How do you think that 1200 number would look if there was no lockdown? How do you think the hospitals would look right now?

I note you have included future events in your post that we simply do not know how they will play out.

The fact you view people in nursing homes as being on borrowed time is f**king disgusting.

Says it all really.

easypazz · 29-04-2020 04:10PM

Tell me how wrote: »

America is paying little to no attention to science in many states.

They will be the best guinea pig to watch.

Full lockdown in NYC, lots of deaths.

Minimal restrictions elsewhere.

As New York relaxes will we see new hotspots develop.

It is good that we can watch and learn.

Theboinkmaster · 29-04-2020 04:14PM

ChikiChiki wrote: »

Thought as much, you can't back it up. So the lockdown is not killing people as you stated and in fact saving people.

How do you think that 1200 number would look if there was no lockdown? How do you think the hospitals would look right now?

I note you have included future events in your post that we simply do not know how they will play out.

The fact you view people in nursing homes as being on borrowed time is f**king disgusting.

Says it all really.

I never stated I was against the lockdown - see above post.

is_that_so · 29-04-2020 04:15PM

hmmm wrote: »

The Irish public have been great at how we responded, but it was only a couple of weeks it was all #stayathome and "clap for carers", now it's "I need a haircut" and "this can't go on much longer".

The Swedes have a very different society and outlook than we have, I expect they can carry on their soft lockdown for a very long time.

I think we've done very well and bit of a whinge is allowed. We are now at a point to ask what now and expect an answer.
I don't doubt the Swedes will, but a model based on a specific national outlook is not going be terribly useful elsewhere.

29-04-2020 04:16PM

growleaves wrote: »

You are another person who hasn't so much as glanced at a summary of the models you are defending.

The numbers of deaths were not revised downwards because of "the success of the lockdowns".

The original models included predictions about the number of deaths with "optimal mitigation policies" of isolation, quarantining, cocooning etc. (Imperial)

The main defense of the lockdown to date is that the polite Swedish people avoided 100,000s of inevitable deaths by behaving themselves, and that other Northern Europeans are incapable of same.

Tell me what were those optimal mitigation policies that were in place and being modelled when the US and UK rapidly change tack on this when Imperial released their new model? You know the one where they figured they would model the actual virus spreading rather than the seasonal flu. And when they did this can you tell me what measures the US and UK subsequently implemented and if they were greater than those already in place? And when they implemented these additional measure did the true death rate fall short of that modelled prior to implementation? And do you think it is possible these may have had an impact?

gozunda · 29-04-2020 04:18PM

Theboinkmaster wrote: »

Might not be nice to say but it's true - you can't lock down 99% of the population and destroy many of their lives for the benefit of 1%.
The majority of our issues with this virus (>50%) are in nursing homes, not general public.
Time to end lockdown and ease back into life starting Monday and over the next few months.

Your logic is truely based on historic levels of ignorance even compared to some of the other contributions on this thread.

The current restrictions are designed to prevent our health service being overwhelmed and to continue to keep down levels of infection in the general population.

That you seemingly cannot appreciate either of those two most basic concepts is truely staggering.

Edit: And yes restrictions will be eased going forward. Will that be because you want it so? No.

growleaves · 29-04-2020 04:19PM

Like I said, lame excuses about "Swedish culture" are supposed to explain the discrepancy between 1,000s of deaths and 100,000s of deaths (see above).

Iowa with a population of 3.155 million has had 136 deaths with no lockdown. Its not all isolated farmland either, it has 30 cities.

Handwashing, social distancing and other mitigation strategies play a role in preventing spread but the added edge gained by stopping people from working or seeing people they know may be quite small, especially given that outdoor transmission appears quite low.

There will be scientific investigations into the actual efficacy of the lockdown in time.

Relaxation of restrictions Part II

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