Covid19 Part XVI- 21,983 in ROI (1,339 deaths) 3,881 in NI (404 deaths)(05/05)Read OP

Wombatman · 29-04-2020 10:56AM

Inquitus wrote: »

Should be dividing today by yesterday!

I assume that's what he meant.

Gynoid · 29-04-2020 10:58AM

amadangomor wrote: »

Need to have emergency chiropractic session and will have to drive quite a distance. Worth notifying my local Garda station before hand?

Probably. My husband had to make one long journey for a reason. He checked with local guards. They said get letter from person you are going to. They whatsapped letter, I printed it. He met 2 checkpoints and both checked letter. Was grand but probably because he had letter.

peasant · 29-04-2020 11:03AM

Wombatman wrote: »

Thanks.

The Imperial College models have us at a much higher transmission rate. Nolan has us much lower.

https://mrc-ide.github.io/covid19-short-term-forecasts/index.html

Thanks for the link to this report !

Now, I have to admit , my brain goes into total lockdown when it comes to the mathematical explanation of their different models. I don't understand it ...never mind being able to pick holes in it to explain why their figures are so different from what we're hearing.

But surely, these people do know what they are talking about...and if so, this is bloody scary:

An expected number of deaths between 1000 and 5000 for next week :eek:

Can somebody more mathematically minded perhaps explain how we think we're almost ready for easing restrictions when this says the total opposite?

Pitch n Putt · 29-04-2020 11:03AM

Inquitus wrote: »

Pretty much almost every nation has had a care home calamity, sadly.

Yeah it’s a big problem in most countries.

We had our chances to prevent it as we could see what was happening in Italy and Spain

But our new leader Tony said it was wrong of the nursing homes to put restrictions in place to prevent it getting into their facilities and he actually preferred for them to be removed.

Then just to make sure it got into the homes they sent it to them in a roundabout way.

My God talk about falling asleep at the wheel.

Now we have the backtrack and cover up operation ongoing to the detrimental effect of everyone.

It was there so obvious in front of them and instead of acting to protect they acted and made it worse.

Sad situation which caused the needless loss of so many.

RIP to all

Roger_007 · 29-04-2020 11:05AM

Wombatman wrote: »

So your R value can never go below 1?

I’m beginning to think that this R value that every epidemiologist loves to talk about cannot be very accurate. If we don’t know how many people are infected how can a transmission rate be accurately calculated. There are whole sections of the population who are not being tested. Children are omitted from the testing equation altogether even though we are told that they do get it but are not seriously affected.
We are also told that many people may be infected but are asymptomatic .
Without randomised testing of large samples of the population, how can it be possible to calculate an accurate R value.
Like many other aspects of this pandemic I think that a lot of the stuff that we are being fed is just guesswork and managing expectations.

hmmm · 29-04-2020 11:07AM

Smoothrider wrote: »

The other thing that seems striking is the fact that over half of the mortality is occurring in nursing homes. How can the lockdown have any effect whatsoever in protecting those residents?

Just on this, the virus is being brought into the homes, presumably by care staff. Care staff are living in the community, and if the virus is circulating in the community this is where they risk contracting it. That's why the lockdown in the general public affects the care homes.

You can't simply isolate care homes, not unless the staff agree to be locked up with the residents.

caveat emptor · 29-04-2020 11:08AM

Wombatman wrote: »

Thanks.

The Imperial College models have us at a much higher transmission rate. Nolan has us much lower.

https://mrc-ide.github.io/covid19-short-term-forecasts/index.html

Thanks for sharing. Very interesting. They have us down for Ro at 2.24. They also expect number of deaths to be ~1200 next week vs 420 last week.

Shocking I guess.

When **** was hitting fan in Italy we chalked it up to old people living in nuclear families.
No **** hitting fan here in nursing homes and it's cause they don't live in community but are all living together. Show's always an explanation.

Snow Garden · 29-04-2020 11:08AM

amadangomor wrote: »

Need to have emergency chiropractic session and will have to drive quite a distance. Worth notifying my local Garda station before hand?

No need. Just explain to the Garda(i) in question. I do a long distance trip (50 miles) once a week through 2 large towns and I have only been stopped twice (Easter weekend). I explained I was shopping for an elderly relative and they didn't even bat an eyelid.

hmmm · 29-04-2020 11:09AM

Roger_007 wrote: »

I’m beginning to think that this R value that every epidemiologist loves to talk about cannot be very accurate. If we don’t know how many people are infected how can a transmission rate be accurately calculated.

We have accurate figures for ICU and hospitalisations and deaths. We might not know exactly how many people are infected, but it's difficult to avoid ending up in ICU or hospital if you get very sick.

Working back from these figures we can estimate how many people are infected, and whether things are improving or not.

caveat emptor · 29-04-2020 11:09AM

hmmm wrote: »

Just on this, the virus is being brought into the homes, presumably by care staff. Care staff are living in the community, and if the virus is circulating in the community this is where they risk contracting it. That's why the lockdown in the general public affects the care homes.

You can't simply isolate care homes, not unless the staff agree to be locked up with the residents.

Locked up with residents vs isolated accommodation in disused hotels?

Doesn't have the same ring to it. China have been saying the HCW who are in contact with patients need to be isolated from the community. It's braindead not too.

Ineedaname · 29-04-2020 11:10AM

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

Germany looking at another lockdown as cases increase.

All after easing restrictions only last week.

Everyone here who is saying the government haven't a plan and should open back up give yourselves a pat on the back.

That's not quite accurate. They saw a rise in the R0 number to 0.96. It's since fallen back down to 0.9. So it's still on the right side of 1. The most likely reason is people flouting restrictions to visit family over Easter.

It's far too early to judge the effects of lifting restrictions. We won't know that for at least a another week. In fact yesterday they had the fewest number of new cases since March 14.

is_that_so · 29-04-2020 11:11AM

peasant wrote: »

Thanks for the link to this report !

Now, I have to admit , my brain goes into total lockdown when it comes to the mathematical explanation of their different models. I don't understand it ...never mind being able to pick holes in it to explain why their figures are so different from what we're hearing.

But surely, these people do know what they are talking about...and if so, this is bloody scary:

An expected number of deaths between 1000 and 5000 for next week :eek:

Can somebody more mathematically minded perhaps explain how we think we're almost ready for easing restrictions when this says the total opposite?

That just looks like a category like towns between 5,000 and 10,000. We are now over 1000 deaths and into that band descriptor.

GM228 · 29-04-2020 11:12AM

caveat emptor wrote: »

They also expect number of deaths to be ~1200 next week vs 420 last week.

But when is "last week"? 7 days prior to the last update we had 610 deaths, nearly two weeks previous we had 486, 493 is the number they quote (not 420) which was never a reported daily total number.

hmmm · 29-04-2020 11:12AM

Wombatman wrote: »

The Imperial College models have us at a much higher transmission rate. Nolan has us much lower.

Interesting figures thanks.

This makes no intuitive sense however, our ICU and hospitalisations are falling.

I very much have my doubts about this Imperial group. I believe they also came in for a lot of criticism at the time of Foot & Mouth over their projections.

hmmm · 29-04-2020 11:13AM

caveat emptor wrote: »

Locked up with residents vs isolated accommodation in disused hotels?

Doesn't have the same ring to it. China have been saying the HCW who are in contact with patients need to be isolated from the community. It's braindead not too.

Agreed. But it's all about masks these days, and this is diverting attention from what would be much more valuable interventions.

growleaves · 29-04-2020 11:14AM

Pa. removes more than 200 deaths from official coronavirus count as questions mount about reporting process, data accuracy

…[T]he state’s coroners — tasked with investigating suspicious deaths — have grown increasingly frustrated by the Health Department’s reluctance to seek their help.

Some have said the department’s numbers did not match what coroners were seeing. Those concerns caught the attention of State Sen. Judy Ward (R., Blair), who is advocating for a bill that would give coroners a bigger role in the crisis.

“There’s a discrepancy in the numbers,” Charles E. Kiessling Jr., president of the Pennsylvania Coroners Association and coroner in Lycoming County, said Thursday. “I’m not saying there’s something going on…. I’m not a conspiracy theory guy. But accuracy is important” [ellipsis original].

seamus · 29-04-2020 11:14AM

tobefrank321 wrote: »

So we have a higher R0 than Sweden who are largely going down the herd immunity route. I'm guessing that's because of the traditional low level of occupancy in Swedish households.

The wider the line the less certain the model.

They're predicting Ireland to report 1,200 covid deaths between 27th April and 3rd May, +/- 900. That's 225 deaths/day from today to Sunday.

It's probably a function of the size of our country, but the margin for error is so large as to be practically useless.

I'd stick with the local team who are using the most up-to-date data and models most appropriate to our population.

caveat emptor · 29-04-2020 11:15AM

peasant wrote: »

Thanks for the link to this report !

Now, I have to admit , my brain goes into total lockdown when it comes to the mathematical explanation of their different models. I don't understand it ...never mind being able to pick holes in it to explain why their figures are so different from what we're hearing.

But surely, these people do know what they are talking about...and if so, this is bloody scary:

An expected number of deaths between 1000 and 5000 for next week :eek:

Can somebody more mathematically minded perhaps explain how we think we're almost ready for easing restrictions when this says the total opposite?

Sure although it's nothing to do with maths.

We tried "lockdown" Irish style (just going to friends for a bbq
popping out to supremacs
let's allow all of the same workers in nursing homes to work in multiple care homes to save on costs
you are not allowed to go anywhere unless you have the weakest of excuses or spit in a guards face

It's now costing too much and if people are going to die anyway may aswell get it out of the way or "take it on the chin" as Boris would have said. I'm sure he has updated his opinion though. Intensive are will do that to a person. Don't think about how much it will cost if half the country coughing up their lungs. Productivity might take a small hit.

Hrududu · 29-04-2020 11:16AM

The frustrating thing is just how many things people saw coming and they happened anyway.

Everyone knew allowing Italians to fly into Dublin with no match on was ridiculous.

Everyone saw what had happened in some Spanish nursing homes, and yet the government got annoyed when the nursing homes took it upon themselves to stop visitors.

When people bring this up now someone chimes in saying that hindsight is great. But its not hindsight when people were saying this at the start.
They couldn't ban flights but they could have insisted on quarantine of 2 weeks from anyone flying from an infected area. That would stop weekend visitors from coming. And allow Irish people abroad to get home, and ensure they weren't spreading anything to the community.

I guess there is no point giving out now, as what good does it do. But its frustrating to be told that going to the shop is being bold and putting people at risk when we see what got us here.

wakka12 · 29-04-2020 11:17AM

peasant wrote: »

Thanks for the link to this report !

Now, I have to admit , my brain goes into total lockdown when it comes to the mathematical explanation of their different models. I don't understand it ...never mind being able to pick holes in it to explain why their figures are so different from what we're hearing.

But surely, these people do know what they are talking about...and if so, this is bloody scary:

An expected number of deaths between 1000 and 5000 for next week :eek:

Can somebody more mathematically minded perhaps explain how we think we're almost ready for easing restrictions when this says the total opposite?

Well I dont know how much stock I'd put in that forecast. Already are very wrong about Ecuador which reported over 200 deaths in a single day yesterday, and that country is in the <100 for the week group above
I'd find it very hard to see Ireland reporting any more than about 400 deaths in a single week, even that would be a very high death week compared to weeks so far.

wakka12 · 29-04-2020 11:28AM

Hrududu wrote: »

The frustrating thing is just how many things people saw coming and they happened anyway.

Everyone knew allowing Italians to fly into Dublin with no match on was ridiculous.

Everyone saw what had happened in some Spanish nursing homes, and yet the government got annoyed when the nursing homes took it upon themselves to stop visitors.

When people bring this up now someone chimes in saying that hindsight is great. But its not hindsight when people were saying this at the start.
They couldn't ban flights but they could have insisted on quarantine of 2 weeks from anyone flying from an infected area. That would stop weekend visitors from coming. And allow Irish people abroad to get home, and ensure they weren't spreading anything to the community.

I guess there is no point giving out now, as what good does it do. But its frustrating to be told that going to the shop is being bold and putting people at risk when we see what got us here.

Yeh the complacency from some authorities was unreal but then again that was not unique to Ireland at all. The entire western world seemed to believe an outbreak was simply an impossibility despite there being no checks at airports or any testing going on

I distinctly remember reports from governments of Sweden, Spain and Ireland all explicitely stating that there was no evidence of community transmission occurring in those countries as late as the end of February,, may have even been very early March, crazy that they said things like that despite there being absolutely no evidence to believe that. Ireland apparently even had covid patients in ICU while this was being said

Roger_007 · 29-04-2020 11:29AM

hmmm wrote: »

We have accurate figures for ICU and hospitalisations and deaths. We might not know exactly how many people are infected, but it's difficult to avoid ending up in ICU or hospital if you get very sick.

Working back from these figures we can estimate how many people are infected, and whether things are improving or not.

We do know that a disproportionate number of the cases are being transmitted within hospitals and nursing homes. We do not know what is going on in the general community because there is no randomised testing going on.
There are various estimates being thrown around about the percentage number of infections in the population simply by multiplying the number of positive tests by some number, (10, 20 or whatever you are having yourself), that seems to be plucked out of the air.

growleaves · 29-04-2020 11:29AM

Trump admin threatens to sue states that don’t lift pandemic orders

The Trump administration is threatening to sue states and municipalities whose pandemic orders infringe on people's rights or cause "undue interference with the national economy."

"I am directing each of our United States Attorneys to also be on the lookout for state and local directives that could be violating the constitutional rights and civil liberties of individual citizens," US Attorney General William Barr wrote yesterday in a memo to all 94 US attorneys' offices. The Barr memo said that "even in times of emergency, when reasonable and temporary restrictions are placed on rights, the First Amendment and federal statutory law prohibit discrimination against religious institutions and religious believers." The memo is available at The Washington Post website.

Barr's memo is not just aimed at protecting members of religious groups. He continued:

The legal restrictions on state and local authority are not limited to discrimination against religious institutions and religious believers. For example, the Constitution also forbids, in certain circumstances, discrimination against disfavored speech and undue interference with the national economy. If a state or local ordinance crosses the line from an appropriate exercise of authority to stop the spread of COVID-19 into an overbearing infringement of constitutional and statutory protections, the Department of Justice may have an obligation to address that overreach in federal court.

seamus · 29-04-2020 11:30AM

Hrududu wrote: »

But its not hindsight when people were saying this at the start.

Well it kind of is. Because either way, we wouldn't be in a substantially better position now.

We now know that someone was admitted to ICU on 17th February. Which means that it's very likely the virus was already in the country as early as 3rd February.

4 people were in ICU with the virus before the first confirmed case. Based on general rates, that suggests that at the time there were 100 others elsewhere on the island with the disease, but not in ICU. But there is no way this could have been known at the time, despite the amount of people with "gut feelings", myself included. You cannot run public health policy on gut feelings.

One can say the decisions taken at the time may have been less than they should have been, but they were based on the data on the table. One could argue that more extreme reactions may have produced better output, but that doesn't mean they weren't extreme. They were still overreactions to the data that was available.

And it's important to avoid revisionism and fooling oneself into believing they had extraordinary insight that experts didn't. A stopped clock, etc.

tobefrank321 · 29-04-2020 11:30AM

hmmm wrote: »

Just on this, the virus is being brought into the homes, presumably by care staff. Care staff are living in the community, and if the virus is circulating in the community this is where they risk contracting it. That's why the lockdown in the general public affects the care homes.

You can't simply isolate care homes, not unless the staff agree to be locked up with the residents.

Not true. This is a myth they have to be locked up with the residents.

They can easily be isolated from the general public in their own homes for the most part. It would involve isolating their families though too. So spouses and children would have to remain at home and outside of work and school. Unfortunate but necessary to save lives in nursing homes. Food etc can easily be delivered to their homes. Spouses should be encouraged to work from home or paid the equivalent of their salary until this is all over. Better this approach than locking everyone else down but forgetting to isolate nursing home staff.

But at the moment during this lockdown, it appears the nursing home staff and familes are being infected and bringing it in. This makes a bit of a mockery of the lockdown.

Nursing homes are the frontline against Covid 19 and they are not being given the help to deal with it.

It seems obvious for example that if a patient tests positive in a nursing home they should immediately be removed from the home and brought to an isolation facility similar to the City West Hotel, to ensure they do not infect others. Based on the Portarlington home featured on PrimeTime, this is not happening and the owner said she is hugely fearful of cross contamination unless the HSE remove the 8 positive covid 19 patients from the home. She said she is at the brink of closing the home.

podgeandrodge · 29-04-2020 11:32AM

Snow Garden wrote: »

No need. Just explain to the Garda(i) in question. I do a long distance trip (50 miles) once a week through 2 large towns and I have only been stopped twice (Easter weekend). I explained I was shopping for an elderly relative and they didn't even bat an eyelid.

I had to travel cross city to an elderly relative to fix their broadband - rang local Garda Station and they just said if anyone stops you tell them you rang us and it was ok.

Was stopped and did just that. No problems. I think most Gardaí will not have an issue with a reasonable excuse. Not many will take the risk of making something up.

Wibbs · 29-04-2020 11:35AM

hmmm wrote: »

I very much have my doubts about this Imperial group. I believe they also came in for a lot of criticism at the time of Foot & Mouth over their projections.

Aye, I'd agree there. Actually I would take any projections with a large pinch of salt. Projections are beloved of middle management types with a gra for pie charts and powerpoint and maths. IMHO they've about the same usefulness as marketing and HR depts. Useful in small doses, but overblown in effectiveness, but seem to be doing something, which can make people feel better. I mean look at the "projections" with fancy graphics and numbers that were posted in this forum from a few weeks back. "Projections" flapping wildly between the end is nigh and be grand, often in the same post or thread. If anyone tells you they "project" death numbers between 5,000 and 50,000 all you can be sure of is, well, nothing. They might be in earnest and believe it, but they're bullsh1tting themselves and any audience they have.

TL;DR? crap data + fancy maths and graphs = crap data.

is_that_so · 29-04-2020 11:37AM

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Not true. This is a myth they have to be locked up with the residents.

They can easily be isolated from the general public in their own homes for the most part. It would involve isolating their families though too. So spouses and children would have to remain at home and outside of work and school. Unfortunate but necessary to save lives in nursing homes. Food etc can easily be delivered to their homes. Spouses should be encouraged to work from home or paid the equivalent of their salary until this is all over. Better this approach than locking everyone else down but forgetting to isolate nursing home staff.

But at the moment during this lockdown, it appears the nursing home staff and familes are being infected and bringing it in. This makes a bit of a mockery of the lockdown.

Nursing homes are the frontline against Covid 19 and they are not being given the help to deal with it.

It seems obvious for example that if a patient tests positive in a nursing home they should immediately be removed from the home and brought to an isolation facility similar to the City West Hotel, to ensure they do not infect others. Based on the Portarlington home featured on PrimeTime, this is not happening and the owner said she is hugely fearful of cross contamination unless the HSE remove the 8 positive covid 19 patients from the home. She said she is at the brink of closing the home.

There are two sides to the story and accepting what a nursing home or a HSE person says as gospel is just going to muddy the waters. I suspect that in review there will be things the HSE could have done ( a lot) better just as there will be homes who did not deal very well with this overall.

1800_Ladladlad · 29-04-2020 11:39AM

hmmm wrote: »

Just on this, the virus is being brought into the homes, presumably by care staff. Care staff are living in the community, and if the virus is circulating in the community this is where they risk contracting it. That's why the lockdown in the general public affects the care homes.

You can't simply isolate care homes, not unless the staff agree to be locked up with the residents.

And as pointed out by myself before, the likes of my neighbor who works as a carer in a home, blatantly ignoring the entire concept of social distancing failing to comprehend the seriousness of the virus itself and disastrous effect it can not only have on themselves but on others. She works as a carer in a care home. How much of a thick degenerate do you have to be to not grasp how serious their role is in the current climate. It infuriates me!! Garda lives across the way had enough too as he went out to them, but it's too late now as the damage would have already been done.

Wibbs · 29-04-2020 11:39AM

seamus wrote: »

And it's important to avoid revisionism and fooling oneself into believing they had extraordinary insight that experts didn't. A stopped clock, etc.

I would agree Seamus, however the data is much more clear now and still the Irish authorities are fielding a mediocre response on many levels. And they've done this quite often when the data was in and wheeled out experts who contradicted it. We still haven't implemented protocols or implemented them in a half arsed fashion that have been prove to work elsewhere.

Covid19 Part XVI- 21,983 in ROI (1,339 deaths) 3,881 in NI (404 deaths)(05/05)Read OP

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