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Covid19 Part XVI- 21,983 in ROI (1,339 deaths) 3,881 in NI (404 deaths)(05/05)Read OP

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  • #6242
    grumpymunster
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,604 ✭✭✭grumpymunster


    Short video on testing for dummies I found it interesting, unsurprising still a bit off on the whole rapid testing by the sounds of it.



  • #6243
    bekker
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 912 ✭✭✭bekker


    Interesting interview on Sean O'Rourke to the effect that traffic patterns, via traffic cams and stops, though somewhat heavier in towns are mainly legitimate traffic and that beaches etc are mostly deserted at weekends.

    Conclusion was that people are integrating restrictions in to their routines and not breaking them. Rejectected picture being pushed on social media as very exaggerated.

    I wonder if we are being subject to a deliberate social media campaign by some vested commercial or political interests in order to to undermine people's faith in overall compliance to engender a climate of inevitability to attempt to force a premature relaxation of the restrictions.


  • #6244
    hmmm
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,203 ✭✭✭✭hmmm


    bekker wrote: »
    I wonder if we are being subject to a deliberate social media campaign by some vested commercial or political interests in order to to undermine people's faith in overall compliance to engender a climate of inevitability to attempt to force a premature relaxation of the restrictions.
    There's certainly some element of a campaign. Whether it's for commercial interests, or just excessively anxious people, I'm not sure.

    Lots of misleading photographs in the news media and social media - any photograph where you are looking straight down a walkway or roadway is misleading as it doesn't show depth.

    The other thing is what I might call "excessive" compliance with laws. People competing with other to be perceived as more virtuous and using this as a way to gain some sort of advantage over others.


  • #6245
    Gynoid
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,524 ✭✭✭Gynoid


    smelly sock wrote: »
    Building sites and outdoor work like gardening etc should never have been shut in the first place. There where better ways of doing it.

    This is rubbish. Was rubbish. Will be rubbish.
    There is a huge amount of shared vehicles between site workers. There is a lot of passing and sharing of tools, wheelbarrows, shovels, tape measures etc. There are a lot of shared surfaces, ladders, scaffolding rails, canteen and toilet doors. The welfare units are tiny, crammed in like sardines. Many eat in their cars, but many have no transport. Wasing the hands and using the jacks are done in tiny spaces. Believe me, site toilets are some of the most filthy places imaginable. There's the rush to the local deli counter at break or on the way in. Many jobs on sites need to be done in close proximity to others. People go to work sick on sites because there is often no sick pay plus the workers are regularly told they are disposable, if they dont show up there are others who will take their place. Sites were rife with people who were sick but keeping schtum before lockdown. Will companies invest in more tools to avoid sharing? They will in their holes. The 15 minute CIF Covid induction online, a big skite of posters plastered everywhere like miraculous medals, an update to the RAMS docs done by bosses safely at hone and off yiz go to the frontline. Let's see how many of ye are standing in 3 months.


  • #6246
    wakka12
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,786 ✭✭✭wakka12


    Interestingly the UAE which has tested over 1 million residents (about 10% of the population) found a mortality rate of 0.78%, exactly the same as the mortality rate found in the New York state antibody testing. Along with Iceland it is by far the highest rate of testing per capita in the world but the sample size of infected in the UAE is 7x times greater than that of Iceland's.


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  • #6247
    Gynoid
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,524 ✭✭✭Gynoid


    wakka12 wrote: »
    Interestingly the UAE which has tested over 1 million residents (about 10% of the population) found a mortality rate of 0.78%, exactly the same as the mortality rate found in the New York state antibody testing.

    0.78% is still worth being concerned about. 8 times more lethal than flu but apparently far more contagious. Plus unknown lingering side effects in those who recover from severe bouts having managed not to die.


  • #6248
    New Home
    Moderators, Arts Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 78,161 Mod ✭✭✭✭New Home


    Gynoid wrote: »
    0.78% is still worth being concerned about. 8 times more lethal than flu but apparently far more contagious. Plus unknown lingering side effects in those who recover from severe bouts having managed not to die.

    For instance: https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/04/how-does-coronavirus-kill-clinicians-trace-ferocious-rampage-through-body-brain-toes


  • #6249
    2ndcoming
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,605 ✭✭✭2ndcoming


    5,500 (at least) care home deaths in the UK announced today. I'm baffled that they are being allowed to keep these out of their stats, and I'm even more baffled that there isn't more furore over it. They're essentially saying these people don't matter. There would be uproar here!

    On another note, looking on Worldometers the Diamond Princess still has 54 active cases. Only 4 of them are critical, how is this possible?? It's been in quarantine since the 4th February! Coming on three months, and everyone's been off the ship nearly two.


  • #6250
    tobefrank321
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,527 ✭✭✭tobefrank321


    DubInMeath wrote: »
    If that is the case, you would imagine that countries like Louth would be higher.

    Plenty of people living one side of the border and working on the other. For example technicians in DKIT who are still working and cannot do so from home due to the nature of their work.

    A friend who lives in Dundalk still has to travel to their office in Belfast each week to perform sys admin tasks that can't be done remotely.

    Louth does have a high rate. Its 463 per 100,000 (for comparison Wexford is just over 100).

    https://www.dublinlive.ie/news/health/border-county-cavan-overtakes-dublin-18160315

    Dr Scally has pointed out the border factor.

    https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0428/1135264-covid19-coronavirus-border/

    There does seem to be some issue there with the border counties. This was going to be a problem when the UK and NI went down the herd immunity route. Because of our exposure to them, we were going to have problems with cases coming from both areas.

    It will just mean our own lockdown will continue to be extended as cases remain high.


  • #6251
    Hector Savage
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,809 ✭✭✭Hector Savage


    https://www.bbc.com/sport/olympics/52453435

    Looks like Olympics will be scrapped


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  • #6252
    hmmm
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,203 ✭✭✭✭hmmm


    Gynoid wrote: »
    0.78% is still worth being concerned about. 8 times more lethal than flu but apparently far more contagious. Plus unknown lingering side effects in those who recover from severe bouts having managed not to die.
    Just FYI, Flu is about .01%.


  • #6253
    Gynoid
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,524 ✭✭✭Gynoid


    hmmm wrote: »
    Just FYI, Flu is about .01%.

    Just FYI Flu is about 0.1% fatality rate.


  • #6254
    wakka12
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,786 ✭✭✭wakka12


    2ndcoming wrote: »
    5,500 (at least) care home deaths in the UK announced today. I'm baffled that they are being allowed to keep these out of their stats, and I'm even more baffled that there isn't more furore over it. They're essentially saying these people don't matter. There would be uproar here!

    On another note, looking on Worldometers the Diamond Princess still has 54 active cases. Only 4 of them are critical, how is this possible?? It's been in quarantine since the 4th February! Coming on three months, and everyone's been off the ship nearly two.

    They may not be ill, just havnt tested negative yet and cant be discharged

    A woman in Italy has baffled doctors as she has tested positive for coronavirus for 60 days straight now but remains asymptomatic


  • #6255
    Onesea
    Closed Accounts Posts: 475 ✭✭Onesea


    How are the coping at the front line in the Matter and Beaumont hospitals?




    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fkQJMhdYN3A

    Was looking at this video and all of the comments had me thinking wtf is going on in Canada


  • #6256
    wakka12
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,786 ✭✭✭wakka12


    Gynoid wrote: »
    0.78% is still worth being concerned about. 8 times more lethal than flu but apparently far more contagious. Plus unknown lingering side effects in those who recover from severe bouts having managed not to die.

    Of course. I think many people don't realise that flu is a major cause of death, it is responsible for about 2% of all global deaths annually and a significant strain on medical resources during it's peak in Jan, Feb, March.

    With COVID, not only is the mortality rate considerably higher, but rates of infection too are many times higher, and you quickly begin to see how it has overwhelmed hospitals globally and is the leading cause of death throughout the western world for weeks now, despite not being a particularly deadly disease for the average person.


  • #6257
    What Username Guidelines
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,139 ✭✭✭What Username Guidelines


    Gynoid wrote: »
    0.78% is still worth being concerned about. 8 times more lethal than flu but apparently far more contagious. Plus unknown lingering side effects in those who recover from severe bouts having managed not to die.

    Assuming the whole thing is perfectly managed here, getting to 60% of population infected is about 21k deaths. :(


  • #6258
    Hurrache
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,378 ✭✭✭✭Hurrache


    Gynoid wrote: »
    There's the rush to the local deli counter at break or on the way in.

    This is a huge point. Builders and labourers come from all over the country and outside of the state to not only cities, but small towns and villages, often served only by a small service station or deli and they crowd into it, alongside the locals, several times a day.


  • #6259
    ednwireland
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,721 ✭✭✭✭ednwireland


    Hector Savage wrote: »
    https://www.bbc.com/sport/olympics/52453435

    Looks like Olympics will be scrapped

    did you read the article ?

    My weather

    https://www.ecowitt.net/home/share?authorize=96CT1F



  • #6260
    tobefrank321
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,527 ✭✭✭tobefrank321


    kwestfan08 wrote: »
    A second wave is an inevitability. This lockdown no matter how long wont kill the virus, it will return in some fashion a few months from now.

    Agreed. It will return in multiple waves likely. It would be best if we got most of these waves out of the way before next winter when "normal" flu will complicate things, especially for older people.


  • #6261
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Transmission rate up to 1.0 in Germany.
    Lothar Wieler, president of the Robert Koch Institute, said the virus reproduction rate, dubbed ‘R’, is now at 1.0 in Germany, which means one person with the virus infects one other on average. Earlier this month, the rate was at 0.7.


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  • #6262
    Onesea
    Closed Accounts Posts: 475 ✭✭Onesea


    How are funeral service companies dealing with the increased numbers,do they have to follow strict rules seeing as the dead still have the virus


  • #6263
    sideswipe
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,439 ✭✭✭sideswipe


    Gynoid wrote: »
    This is rubbish. Was rubbish. Will be rubbish.
    There is a huge amount of shared vehicles between site workers. There is a lot of passing and sharing of tools, wheelbarrows, shovels, tape measures etc. There are a lot of shared surfaces, ladders, scaffolding rails, canteen and toilet doors. The welfare units are tiny, crammed in like sardines. Many eat in their cars, but many have no transport. Wasing the hands and using the jacks are done in tiny spaces. Believe me, site toilets are some of the most filthy places imaginable. There's the rush to the local deli counter at break or on the way in. Many jobs on sites need to be done in close proximity to others. People go to work sick on sites because there is often no sick pay plus the workers are regularly told they are disposable, if they dont show up there are others who will take their place. Sites were rife with people who were sick but keeping schtum before lockdown. Will companies invest in more tools to avoid sharing? They will in their holes. The 15 minute CIF Covid induction online, a big skite of posters plastered everywhere like miraculous medals, an update to the RAMS docs done by bosses safely at hone and off yiz go to the frontline. Let's see how many of ye are standing in 3 months.

    They should bring in a new law declaring that if you forget your own shovel you can't go to work....the Christy Moore Law it shall be known as.


  • #6264
    hmmm
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,203 ✭✭✭✭hmmm


    is_that_so wrote: »
    Some thoughts on the Germans reopening.

    https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/04/reopening-puts-germany-s-much-praised-coronavirus-response-risk
    Good article. This below is also what we are trying to do, we need our health leaders to better explain it to the people:

    "“If you can get new cases low enough that you can follow everyone,” Schmidt-Chanasit explains, health authorities can isolate all their contacts, ideally keeping the virus under control for the longer term. Germany does not have the capacity to do contact tracing at the current number of patients, but waiting a few more weeks might bring the daily caseload to a manageable level and also allow time to develop a phone app to aid contact tracers, Drosten says."


  • #6265
    Hector Savage
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,809 ✭✭✭Hector Savage


    ednwireland wrote: »
    did you read the article ?

    I did, and cannot see the vaccine being distributed enough by July 2021


  • #6266
    xtal191
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,537 ✭✭✭xtal191


    Does this mean we'll probably be seeing less and less confirmed cases in the coming weeks?

    https://twitter.com/FergalBowers/status/1255069095680266240


  • #6267
    What Username Guidelines
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,139 ✭✭✭What Username Guidelines


    hmmm wrote: »
    There's certainly some element of a campaign. Whether it's for commercial interests, or just excessively anxious people, I'm not sure.

    Lots of misleading photographs in the news media and social media - any photograph where you are looking straight down a walkway or roadway is misleading as it doesn't show depth.

    The other thing is what I might call "excessive" compliance with laws. People competing with other to be perceived as more virtuous and using this as a way to gain some sort of advantage over others.

    Couple that with prevention paradox and it’s something that needs to be carefully addressed and managed.

    https://twitter.com/bopanc/status/1255065893467553793?s=21


  • #6268
    Gynoid
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,524 ✭✭✭Gynoid


    What Username Guidelines wrote: »
    Assuming the whole thing is perfectly managed here, getting to 60% of population infected is about 21k deaths. :(

    Hopefully it will not come to that. I don't know. No one really knows. It is troubling.


  • #6269
    hmmm
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,203 ✭✭✭✭hmmm


    Gynoid wrote: »
    Just FYI Flu is about 0.1% fatality rate.
    If we have 100 to 500 flu deaths a year in Ireland, that's .01

    Covid prediction is around 25-30,000 deaths.


  • #6270
    Gynoid
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,524 ✭✭✭Gynoid


    sideswipe wrote: »
    They should bring in a new law declaring that if you forget your own shovel you can't go to work....the Christy Moore Law it shall be known as.

    Maybe the companies should pay for those extra tools?


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  • #6271
    bekker
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 912 ✭✭✭bekker


    hmmm wrote: »
    There's certainly some element of a campaign. Whether it's for commercial interests, or just excessively anxious people, I'm not sure.

    Lots of misleading photographs in the news media and social media - any photograph where you are looking straight down a walkway or roadway is misleading as it doesn't show depth.

    The other thing is what I might call "excessive" compliance with laws. People competing with other to be perceived as more virtuous and using this as a way to gain some sort of advantage over others.
    Agreed it's difficult to be sure what's behind it, and official messaging hasn't helped if it's just excessive anxiety.

    I would have thought that official suppression of any idea of relaxation from the 5th would have been the norm, not raising expectations but leaving all options open. Instead we've had a plethora of contradictory statements and possibly kite flying.

    Studies of mass psychology suggest that the best way of maintaining popular support for measures is to be open, set out the criteria that will prompt change, and give target dates (even if very long term) so that people's mindset adjusts to the period envisaged.


This discussion has been closed.
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