Covid19 Part XVI- 21,983 in ROI (1,339 deaths) 3,881 in NI (404 deaths)(05/05)Read OP

holliehobbie · 27-04-2020 05:24PM

hmmm wrote: »

A good study can indicate patterns e.g. lots of grocery workers becoming infected.

We're not seeing this.

Similarly we're not seeing lots of schoolteachers infected. These results all tell us something, we just need someone smart enough to figure out what that is

I'm very hopeful that we are getting closer to identifying the areas of superspreading. They will have to remain closed, but it will allow other areas to open.

School teachers haven't been in a classroom for weeks! It's people who are still out working like delivery people and people working in grocery shops and pharmacies who should be studied.

eagle eye · 27-04-2020 05:25PM

joe_99 wrote:

Dublin is a huge European hub with up to 100k arrivals each day on hundreds of flights from European hot spots. We have an unmanned land border with a European hotspot. Ferry traffic from Europe etc etc. We are not the same as NZ.

There are other cities here besides Dublin you know?

speckle · 27-04-2020 05:25PM

hmmm wrote: »

It seems to me that we are getting to understand transmission dynamics much better now - there have been some really interesting studies released recently.

A crowded indoor place with people talking (or singing) is lethal - think Churches, choirs, pubs (unfortunately) etc. Talking in general has been traced to many of the infections I've read about - the only outdoor infection in a 7000 case Chinese study was due to two people talking. Public transport needs excellent ventilation, open the windows or you're at high risk.

While we don't have the climate for it, I suspect you should be investing in some outdoor heaters if you run a business.

yep as said earlier somewhere we stopped rehearsing as we were singing in a very small enclosed space and also we needs windows that open on hospitals and offices for fresh air. No more sick buildings. Unless the pollution is worse outside of course.

is_that_so · 27-04-2020 05:26PM

Lyle wrote: »

You could be out for any number of reasons, I was just giving a kinda hypothetical example using shopping.

I have, over time, become a bit lost in the figures and terminology but do we not have about 45% (ish) Community Transmission, which is defined as transmission that did not from a confirmed case?

That's still a very high percentage, I know it could be worse but it's still a big unknown variable that is difficult to ignore.

On the household shedding, I'd hope you were right because that's where we need to be at this point of restrictions, but if you look at the community transmission rate, I don't think we're there yet. It's still circulating in people who have to leave their homes for work or other reasons (as well as those leaving their homes who don't), in community settings outside of people's homes.

What's the 45% here? Phillip Nolan, who leads the modelling team said there is now virtually zero growth in the community. Unfortunately that's still not the case in residential homes.

BorneTobyWilde · 27-04-2020 05:27PM

Ventilators could be a huge cause of deaths, very few come off of them. You have a situation where strong, health people present themselves at hospital, all talking, all walking, they get an xray and it shows their lungs are saturated with mucus with a 20% oxygen reading and they are rushed to a ventilator, paralyzed with drugs and hooked to a machine that forces air into the lungs, few hours later a lot of these people were dead. They walked in fine, strong, healthy and able and were dead hours later.
Then you have other doctors who simple put these patients on oxygen and humidifier only, and watch as their oxygen levels rise from 20% to 70-90% and treat the virus best way they can as their body tackles it also, buying their body enough of time to clear the mucus and attack the virus. Days later they recover.

I think ventilators was a robotic reaction from doctors who were trained to behave that way in the face of a xray that looked so bad.

Allinall · 27-04-2020 05:29PM

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Ventilators could be a huge cause of deaths, very few come off of them. You have a situation where strong, health people present themselves at hospital, all talking, all walking, they get an xray and it shows their lungs are saturated with mucus with a 20% oxygen reading and they are rushed to a ventilator, paralyzed with drugs and hooked to a machine that forces air into the lungs, few hours later a lot of these people were dead. They walked in fine, strong, healthy and able and were dead hours later.
Then you have other doctors who simple put these patients on oxygen and humidifier only, and watch as their oxygen levels rise from 20% to 70-90% and treat the virus best way they can as their body tackles it also, buying their body enough of time to clear the mucus and attack the virus. Days later they recover.

I think ventilators was a robotic reaction from doctors who were trained to behave that way in the face of a xray that looked so bad.

Thanks doctor.

BorneTobyWilde · 27-04-2020 05:29PM

We only have 8900 active cases, what we need now is the recovery to out pace the new cases.

bekker · 27-04-2020 05:32PM

ZX7R wrote: »

I can see companies that specialize in ventilation systems and installation of them making a foursome

Given that internal ventilation systems have been shown to have been responsible for the spread of COVID-19 in certain cases I believe that it will be necessary for such systems to be certified before premises served are opened.

In addition it will be necessary to ensure that the filtration maintenance is carried out with the necessary frequency and rigor.

HEPA filters for ventilation systems are not cheap and administrations in this country have proven themselves to be unwilling or incapable of funding the necessary level of inspections to ensure compliance in many spheres.

How busses and trains would fare is open to question, so it may be necessary to have mandatory masking in all public transport.

In the interim, as others have mentioned, outdoor space heaters and a relaxation of pavement controls and fees should allow some social activity to resume when appropriate.

Lyle · 27-04-2020 05:33PM

is_that_so wrote: »

What's the 45% here? Phillip Nolan, who leads the modelling team said there is now virtually zero growth in the community. Unfortunately that's still not the case in residential homes.

I was wrong on that number. I took it from RTEs graph on their summary page. I had tried and failed to remember what it was.

Currently it says:
Travel 4%
Contact with Confirmed Case 33%
Community Transmission 63%

I'm missing something, I might have the wrong definition of what Community Transmission is, I was under the impression that (like back at the start when that first case in Cork was labelled that when they didn't know where he picked it up) if someone was a Community Transmission case, they'd picked it up from an as-yet-unknown source.

Xertz · 27-04-2020 05:33PM

Ribs1234 wrote: »

Tesco Uk said they had 41,000 workers off sick, undoing much of the benefit of an extra 50,000 workers
Schools have been closed for a while now

Worth noting that Tesco has 344,117 employees in the U.K. and Ireland (they don’t seem to break down how many in each).

So over 11% or their work force which is high.

BorneTobyWilde · 27-04-2020 05:34PM

Allinall wrote: »

Thanks doctor.

This is the opinion of other doctors who found that it was like these patients were starved of oxygen, as if they had altitude sickness rather than failing lungs. They found that with oxygen and humidifier they could quickly increase oxygen levels, while dealing with virus through other means.

Allinall · 27-04-2020 05:37PM

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

This is the opinion of other doctors who found that it was like these patients were starved of oxygen, as if they had altitude sickness rather than failing lungs. They found that with oxygen and humidifier they could quickly increase oxygen levels, while dealing with virus through other means.

Any source?

BorneTobyWilde · 27-04-2020 05:37PM

What's with new lockdown measures? WHAT A JOKE? We were already in lockdown, was it a'' pretend'' lockdown. What a country.
The lockdown the past few weeks was a joke, so guards will be out this week, where were they last week and the week before. Did they need reminding of their job?

eagle eye · 27-04-2020 05:38PM

Allinall wrote:

Any source?

All over the internet.

spookwoman · 27-04-2020 05:38PM

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

What's with new lockdown measures? WHAT A JOKE? We were already in lockdown, was it a'' pretend'' lockdown. What a country.
The lockdown the past few weeks was a joke, so guards will be out this week, where were they last week and the week before. Did they need reminding of their job?

Got stopped at 7.45 the other morning heading to P.O and shops

ek motor · 27-04-2020 05:39PM

Allinall wrote: »

Any source?

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.livescience.com/amp/silent-hypoxia-killing-covid-19-coronavirus-patients.html

New Home · 27-04-2020 05:40PM

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Ventilators could be a huge cause of deaths, very few come off of them. You have a situation where strong, health people present themselves at hospital, all talking, all walking, they get an xray and it shows their lungs are saturated with mucus with a 20% oxygen reading and they are rushed to a ventilator, paralyzed with drugs and hooked to a machine that forces air into the lungs, few hours later a lot of these people were dead. They walked in fine, strong, healthy and able and were dead hours later.
Then you have other doctors who simple put these patients on oxygen and humidifier only, and watch as their oxygen levels rise from 20% to 70-90% and treat the virus best way they can as their body tackles it also, buying their body enough of time to clear the mucus and attack the virus. Days later they recover.

I think ventilators was a robotic reaction from doctors who were trained to behave that way in the face of a xray that looked so bad.

In fairness, though, had they been doing so well, would they have presented themselves to hospital in the first place? I don't think in those cases the ventilators were the cause of death, more like their condition was so bad that the ventilator was their last chance of survival and in most case (most, not all) it didn't work. Also, AFAIK, it's not just the mucus that's the problem, it's the lung tissue that's being attacked and destroyed by the virus and the person's antibodies. This is NOTHING like a "normal" pneumonia.

podgeandrodge · 27-04-2020 05:40PM

podgeandrodge wrote: »

Interesting statistic. From what I can see, that would represent about 15% of their UK staff. Would be great to know their usual absenteeism figures to work out the extra fallout that could be attributable to Covid-19. But if it is Covid related, it's significant, but perhaps not incredibly high given that such staff are in constant all day long contact with other staff/customers all day. Would potentially still suggest that a quick supermarket shop on your own for a few minutes is unlikely to contaminate you.

Seamai wrote: »

I wonder how true that is? 41,000 is over 25% of the official UK case total and they are only one supermarket chain albeit probably the largest.
If that figure is correct I doubt they all have COVID-19, I'd say it's a combination of staff who don't want to risk it, chancers who fancied a break and some genuine cases. If 41,000 contracted it there would be at least a couple of thousand deaths in that number, with families claiming that Tesco had put their staff at risk.

gipi wrote: »

Could be a childcare issue causing the high absentee rate?

Xertz wrote: »

Worth noting that Tesco has 344,117 employees in the U.K. and Ireland (they don’t seem to break down how many in each).

So over 11% or their work force which is high.

So a multitude of potential reasons. One thing is likely, 41k Tesco workers have not got Covid.

eagle eye · 27-04-2020 05:40PM

BorneTobyWilde wrote:

What's with new lockdown measures? WHAT A JOKE? We were already in lockdown, was it a'' pretend'' lockdown. What a country. The lockdown the past few weeks was a joke, so guards will be out this week, where were they last week and the week before. Did they need reminding of their job?

Have to say it must be incredibly difficult to be a Garda dealing with the public right now. Trying to social distance, prevent crime and deal with lots of idiots who won't stay at home.
I certainly wouldn't want to do it.

is_that_so · 27-04-2020 05:41PM

Lyle wrote: »

I was wrong on that number. I took it from RTEs graph on their summary page. I had tried and failed to remember what it was.

Currently it says:
Travel 4%
Contact with Confirmed Case 33%
Community Transmission 63%

I'm missing something, I might have the wrong definition of what Community Transmission is, I was under the impression that (like back at the start when that first case in Cork was labelled that when they didn't know where he picked it up) if someone was a Community Transmission case, they'd picked it up from an as-yet-unknown source.

That's just stats on where those cases occurred, not the rate of transmission. Community transmission really means catching it anywhere outside a medical location or a residential home.

ek motor · 27-04-2020 05:42PM

New Home wrote: »

In fairness, though, had they been doing so well, would they have presented themselves to hospital in the first place? I don't think in those cases the ventilators were the cause of death, more like their condition was so bad that the ventilator was their last chance of survival and in most case (most, not all) it didn't work. Also, AFAIK, it's not just the mucus that's the problem, it's the lung tissue that's being attacked and destroyed by the virus and the person's antibodies. This is NOTHING like a "normal" pneumonia.

I have heard that ECMO machines are more effective than ventilators for Covid-19 patients.

New Home · 27-04-2020 05:43PM

It depends a lot on the patient and on the availability of ECMO machines.

bekker · 27-04-2020 05:45PM

New Home wrote: »

In fairness, though, had they been doing so well, would they have presented themselves to hospital in the first place? I don't think in those cases the ventilators were the cause of death, more like their condition was so bad that the ventilator was their last chance of survival and in most case (most, not all) it didn't work. Also, AFAIK, it's not just the mucus that's the problem, it's the lung tissue that's being attacked and destroyed by the virus and the person's antibodies. This is NOTHING like a "normal" pneumonia.

AFAIR in Lombardy, intubated ventilation was the default, and it was when they had to put patients on to CPAP, while waiting it that they found over 30% recovered without requiring to be put on an intubated ventilator.

BorneTobyWilde · 27-04-2020 05:45PM

spookwoman wrote: »

Got stopped at 7.45 the other morning heading to P.O and shops

Spooky Women are bound to get stopped. I've not seen a check point, i do see high traffic though. Where they are going I'll never know, can't all be heading to the supermarket or pharmacy.

SharpshooterTom · 27-04-2020 05:46PM

China wielding the big stick!
https://twitter.com/SkyNewsAust/status/1254611217156468736

is_that_so · 27-04-2020 05:46PM

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Spooky Women are bound to get stopped. I've not seen a check point, i do see high traffic though. Where they are going I'll never know, can't all be heading to the supermarket or pharmacy.

Cars need exercise too you know!

BorneTobyWilde · 27-04-2020 05:46PM

Allinall wrote: »

Any source?

Here is a good piece on it

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/intensive-care-doctors-question-overly-aggressive-use-ventilators/

MonkieSocks · 27-04-2020 05:46PM

Lyle wrote: »

I was wrong on that number. I took it from RTEs graph on their summary page. I had tried and failed to remember what it was.

Currently it says:
Travel 4%
Contact with Confirmed Case 33%
Community Transmission 63%

I'm missing something, I might have the wrong definition of what Community Transmission is, I was under the impression that (like back at the start when that first case in Cork was labelled that when they didn't know where he picked it up) if someone was a Community Transmission case, they'd picked it up from an as-yet-unknown source.

How Coved 19 is spreading

In the event that a person tests positive for COVID-19 and hasn't been abroad or had contact with another confirmed case in Ireland, that's known as community transmission.

In the event that a person who tests positive for COVID-19 can be linked to another confirmed case in Ireland, that's known as local transmission.

Mental Mickey · 27-04-2020 05:48PM

Any news as to when the briefing is on?

BorneTobyWilde · 27-04-2020 05:48PM

is_that_so wrote: »

Cars need exercise too you know!

Covid19 Part XVI- 21,983 in ROI (1,339 deaths) 3,881 in NI (404 deaths)(05/05)Read OP

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