The UK response to Covid-19 [MOD WARNING 1ST POST]

Professor Moriarty · 25-04-2020 05:38PM

bob mcbob wrote: »

In the leaked cabinet office briefing on threat of a UK pandemic, they forecast -

A case fatality ratio of 0.2%, resulting in 65,600 deaths.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/24/leaked-cabinet-office-briefing-on-uk-pandemic-threat-the-key-points

I think that this might prove to be pretty accurate in the end.

Very prescient. This section is very relevant:

The public outrage would likely be determined by the preparations and response undertaken by the government. Poor government handling of the situation would exacerbate the level of outrage significantly. There would be significant and widespread public outrage directed at the authorities given the very high numbers of fatalities and casualties within vulnerable groups. There would also be significant anger if vaccines, antivirals or other countermeasures were not perceived to be effective, evenly distributed or available as soon as practically possible, including when compared with other countries. The performance of the health and care system is likely to contribute to the public outrage, especially if provision of the remaining services is seen as unevenly distributed. There is also a risk public outrage may be directed at both foreign nations and nationals (who are seen as the “source” of the problem) for not preventing its spread or importing disease into the UK.

Expect Cummings to point the finger at China and the EU.

ancapailldorcha · 25-04-2020 05:51PM

RobMc59 wrote: »

The only tory I thought decent is Dominic Grieve,I don't think I'd trust any of the rest of them.

I wouldn't go that far. A lot of the northern Tories are very atypical. There was a good piece in the Economist about it. Here's one from the Metro about 7 of the new Tory MP's from the northeast:

https://www.thenorthernecho.co.uk/news/18099457.general-election-2019-north-easts-seven-new-conservative-mps/

To be honest, the only Conservative MP's I actively dislike are those who seem to stand to gain from a no deal Brexit like Steve Baker, Jacob Rees-Mogg, John Redwood, etc...

RobMc59 · 25-04-2020 07:50PM

Fuascailteoir wrote: »

Why was everyone saying Peter Kay looked terrible. He didn't look much different to me.

Has`nt he had some personal problems(not sure what exactly) over the last 12 months or so?

dfx- · 25-04-2020 08:01PM

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

Priti Patel doing todays briefing at 4.

They'd be better off letting Mark Francois do it at this stage

Patser · 25-04-2020 08:19PM

dfx- wrote: »

They'd be better off letting Mark Francois do it at this stage

To be fair to Patel, she's not wrong when she said shoplifting is down.......

Sweet Jesus, how desperate for positive are they

ArmaniJeanss · 25-04-2020 08:27PM

RobMc59 wrote: »

The only tory I thought decent is Dominic Grieve,I don't think I'd trust any of the rest of them.

You're Merseyside/Wirral aren't you.
How is Michael Heseltine generally perceived there?

theological · 25-04-2020 08:34PM

Interesting that an article on the BBC sports page suggests that the Government and the chief medical officers are in discussions about re-starting live sport in the UK. Including social distancing at stadiums.

That is surprising. That implies that the end of the lockdown is in active consideration and discussion.

Anecdotally I am starting to see that people's discipline is wavering. In the green space that I was walking through today, people were sitting, chatting and smoking together in some cases. There is only so long that people will be able to keep to the terms of the lockdown going forward.

Hopefully progress on the death and cases figures continues to decline, but I am expecting that if the extension is extended they will probably only manage to keep it that way until the end of May at the latest.

S.M.B. · 25-04-2020 08:42PM

I'm seeing more activity these days too and it feels like peoples efforts are starting to wane. Looks like there's going to have to be some move towards a managed removal of some restrictions but at the same time that feels like it's a recipe for disaster without being able to test and trace the general public.

RobMc59 · 25-04-2020 09:00PM

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

You're Merseyside/Wirral aren't you.
How is Michael Heseltine generally perceived there?

He's well thought of although back in the day he was looked upon as a gimmick by the tories following the riots. Fair play to him he did a decent job up here.

PommieBast · 25-04-2020 09:25PM

Joe_ Public wrote: »

I wonder when it finally sinks in to people that the earlier dismissed models of 60,000 or more deaths was actually not too far off the money, and they have fared so comparitvily badly to almost everywhere else, will there be a public clamour for a reckoning?

I do remember one of the reasons for the high estimates was pessimistic assumptions for variables related to the health system. Did the UK government ever respond to that prediction directly?

Tippex · 25-04-2020 09:36PM

I am fully anticipating an announcement next week that our restrictions remain in place for a further 2 weeks minimum.

Joe_ Public · 25-04-2020 10:01PM

PommieBast wrote: »

I do remember one of the reasons for the high estimates was pessimistic assumptions for variables related to the health system. Did the UK government ever respond to that prediction directly?

You mean verbally or by some sort of action? I dont believe so either way. I'm not that bothered by the model tbh, they actually downgraded the figure to nearly half that, which will turn out to be a gross underestimate.

The question about the health system is a good one though. The nhs didnt collapse as many feared but that may have come at a price when you factor other things into the equation.

PommieBast · 25-04-2020 11:06PM

Joe_ Public wrote: »

The question about the health system is a good one though. The nhs didnt collapse as many feared but that may have come at a price when you factor other things into the equation.

If the NHS does collapse, it will happen after the pandemic rather than during it.

The vast majority of NHS staff will press on until the crisis is over, but from my own experience of burnout I think a lot of them have gone beyond the point of no return. At the very least there will be PTSD sickness rates comparable to the battlefield.

Joe_ Public · 26-04-2020 08:07AM

PommieBast wrote: »

If the NHS does collapse, it will happen after the pandemic rather than during it.

The vast majority of NHS staff will press on until the crisis is over, but from my own experience of burnout I think a lot of them have gone beyond the point of no return. At the very least there will be PTSD sickness rates comparable to the battlefield.

Yeah there's that and there's also other issues like the question that was asked at the briefing yesterday about it going to take them five years to clear the backlog of elective surgeries. Which was according to a royal college of surgeons source. The extent to which other treatments have suffered is going to put a serious strain on the system for a long time to come.

theological · 26-04-2020 09:08AM

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Yeah there's that and there's also other issues like the question that was asked at the briefing yesterday about it going to take them five years to clear the backlog of elective surgeries. Which was according to a royal college of surgeons source. The extent to which other treatments have suffered is going to put a serious strain on the system for a long time to come.

I think it is worth pointing out that it will put strain on the NHS, but in terms of dealing with the virus the NHS has managed capacity.

It's also worth pointing out that the UK won't be alone with a backlog of elective surgery. This virus is putting a strain on health services all over the world. The UK isn't a special case in this regard.

Enzokk · 26-04-2020 10:17AM

So people flying into the UK will now face a 14 day quarantine.

https://twitter.com/drphiliplee1/status/1254335042521911298?s=20

And the response to this idea now seems apt. It is almost like they are still following the herd immunity strategy by only doing this now when it seems like the peak has passed. Love to see the science behind this, too bad it is stored in the same cabinet as the Russia report.

theological wrote: »

I think it is worth pointing out that it will put strain on the NHS, but in terms of dealing with the virus the NHS has managed capacity.

It's also worth pointing out that the UK won't be alone with a backlog of elective surgery. This virus is putting a strain on health services all over the world. The UK isn't a special case in this regard.

Every country will deal with backlogs. The UK seems to be the only one where the media is attacking the staff in their health service though,

https://twitter.com/LouiseRawAuthor/status/1254139059754106892?s=20

Lnk to the article in the tweet

Joe_ Public · 26-04-2020 10:27AM

Dominic Raab on Marr talks about other countries having a poor standard of ppe just after he's asked a question about nurses having to wear kagouls.

Earlier Marr asked Nicola Sturgeon to justify why Scotland had 30% deaths in care homes while England and Wales only had 10%. Is he being disingenuous or just ill informed?

Enzokk · 26-04-2020 10:38AM

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Dominic Raab on Marr talks about other countries having a poor standard of ppe just after he's asked a question about nurses having to wear kagouls.

Earlier Marr asked Nicola Sturgeon to justify why Scotland had 30% deaths in care homes while England and Wales only had 10%. Is he being disingenuous or just ill informed?

The UK figure in care homes is strange. They are still talking about a low figure of deaths in care homes in the UK. All evidence from other countries point to at least 40% of the total deaths occurring in care homes, but somehow the UK is special and they are bucking this trend. Why? What makes the UK special that they avoided the deaths? Why have they not been questioned on how they reached this figure?

You are almost led to believe they are deliberately doing this to keep the numbers down as higher number would indicate that their decisions have not been effective as the UK is having more deaths than their counterparts. Politicians playing games while people are dying really.

Joe_ Public · 26-04-2020 10:49AM

Enzokk wrote: »

The UK figure in care homes is strange. They are still talking about a low figure of deaths in care homes in the UK. All evidence from other countries point to at least 40% of the total deaths occurring in care homes, but somehow the UK is special and they are bucking this trend. Why? What makes the UK special that they avoided the deaths? Why have they not been questioned on how they reached this figure?

You are almost led to believe they are deliberately doing this to keep the numbers down as higher number would indicate that their decisions have not been effective as the UK is having more deaths than their counterparts. Politicians playing games while people are dying really.

The figures are bogus. Simple as. Care England released a report last week estimating 7,500 deaths in care homes, which covered to to a couple of weeks back.

They've kind of kept care homes in the back since the start, as much out of the public eye as they could. Out of sight out of mind kind of thing.

What is strange is the bbc. Marr using the 10% figure which is even further out of date than the ons. And yesterday it was the bbc reporter asking about the 20,000 death figure at the briefing as if that was the only true and relevant figure.

Leads me to think there is an official bbc policy to only deal with the official daily total and ask no further questions. Insult their viewers intelligence in other words and give politicians an easier ride.

A Dub in Glasgo · 26-04-2020 11:17AM

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Dominic Raab on Marr talks about other countries having a poor standard of ppe just after he's asked a question about nurses having to wear kagouls.

Earlier Marr asked Nicola Sturgeon to justify why Scotland had 30% deaths in care homes while England and Wales only had 10%. Is he being disingenuous or just ill informed?

He is being disingenuous and knows exactly what he is doing

S.M.B. · 26-04-2020 11:32AM

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Leads me to think there is an official bbc policy to only deal with the official daily total and ask no further questions. Insult their viewers intelligence in other words and give politicians an easier ride.

Seems like a bit of a jump to me, they mention the fact that it's in hospital deaths in passing enough and a fair amount of the media are doing the same and most made a big deal of passing the 20,000 mark.

AllForIt · 26-04-2020 11:33AM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

One thing I've noticed is that we're now not supposed to question British experts but it was fine to complete disregard them when it came to voting for Brexit.

You thought that yourself? Because I heard that point made I don't know how many times over the last few weeks.

But I'm even more skeptical than that because I don't think even you yourself buy that argument because I'm sure you know there is a difference between a scientist (which is the term you should have used) and an 'expert'.

I'd also be keen to know how many NHS staff, carers and scientists are EU migrants that the British people have made feel unwelcome.

I'd be keen to reply to that one but I've seen the mod warning in the first post, which I think applies to everyone btw.

=========================================

Getting a bit weary of all these daily UK briefings so don't tend to watch them with much regularity anymore but I did listen in on yesterday's, and what struck me what the absolutely appalling standard of questioning from the journalists in these serious times.

Some of these journalists to me have the gravitas of a daytime chat show presenter and not a serious journalist. And to think some were expecting faint in journalism to go up and not down.

Joe_ Public · 26-04-2020 11:52AM

S.M.B. wrote: »

Seems like a bit of a jump to me, they mention the fact that it's in hospital deaths in passing enough and a fair amount of the media are doing the same and most made a big deal of passing the 20,000 mark.

Andrew Marr suggesting to the scottish fm this morning that only 10% of deaths in england and Wales had happened in care homes. That figure is actually more than three weeks out of date. I'm not saying bbc are alone but I'm definitely noticing a much more vigorous tendency to question the figures elsewhere.

Enzokk · 26-04-2020 12:36PM

The Sunday Times has a few stories on the pandemic,

Coronavirus: NHS will fall short of 1bn items of protective gear, review reveals

The UK will be short of up to a billion items of personal protective equipment (PPE), according to a secret forecast commissioned by the government that will heap pressure on the health secretary, Matt Hancock.

The predictions of severe shortages were set out in a 90-day projection modelled by the consultancy firm McKinsey, which was circulated among ministers within the last week.

Fears have been raised not only about the quantity of PPE — which includes gowns, masks and gloves — being given to medical staff, but also the quality. A Whitehall source claimed the standards of equipment in the UK had developing countries “watching in horror”.

“There is ever-growing concern about PPE because the quality of Public Health England guidance has been woeful,” said the senior Whitehall insider.

“Every day we run out of something, the advice is downgraded and we are now running at standards lower than [recommended by] the International Red Cross and the World Health Organisation. We have always been so smug about ourselves as a developed country, but now we have nations we send aid to watching us in horror.”

The rest of the story doesn't make for much better reading either. Then there is this story,

Coronavirus tests run out in minutes again — and results will take a month

NHS staff are being forced to wait up to 25 days for the results of coronavirus tests as the government’s testing regime descends into farce.

The revelation came as tests for key workers via the government’s booking website ran out within minutes yesterday for the second day in a row.

Last week the Department of Health and Social Care said that it had finished setting up “the biggest network of diagnostic labs in British history”.

It added that an “army of highly qualified staff and volunteers” was working tirelessly to “rapidly analyse coronavirus tests for NHS, social care and other frontline workers, allowing those testing negative to safely and quickly return to work”.

I have run out of my free articles to read so I can only go on these paragraphs. But if it takes that long to get results, how are you able to return staff back to work if it takes almost a month to get a result? What if you only show mild symptoms and go back to work but you have Covid-19? I guess the advice means people should be out of work, which means elective procedures will be delayed further and dancing staff isn't working hard enough.

RobMc59 · 26-04-2020 01:36PM

I think this link about what`s going on along the border is as bad as Cheltenham or Madrid fans at Anfield.
https://www.derrynow.com/news/news/537917/gardai-ordered-not-to-arrest-anyone-from-northern-ireland-for-covid-19-breaches-report.html

Joe_ Public · 26-04-2020 01:44PM

RobMc59 wrote: »

I think this link about what`s going on along the border is as bad as Cheltenham or Madrid fans at Anfield.
https://www.derrynow.com/news/news/537917/gardai-ordered-not-to-arrest-anyone-from-northern-ireland-for-covid-19-breaches-report.html

What do you mean about "whats going on'? I dont see anything in the article about Cheltenham or anfield scale gatherings.

But definitely a bit concerning i would concede, outside dublin the border counties are among the worst hit. That is a cause for worry for sure.

RobMc59 · 26-04-2020 01:49PM

Joe_ Public wrote: »

What do you mean about "whats going on'? I dont see anything in the article about Cheltenham or anfield scale gatherings.

But definitely a bit concerning i would concede, outside dublin the border counties are among the worst hit. That is a cause for worry for sure.

I would say this is very reckless behaviour and should be stopped by the authorities.It is possibly even worse than earlier gatherings as we are all supposed to know this is wrong now.

Joe_ Public · 26-04-2020 01:53PM

RobMc59 wrote: »

I would say this is very reckless behaviour and should be stopped by the authorities.It is possibly even worse than earlier gatherings as we are all supposed to know this is wrong now.

What are you referring to specifically? I dont see anything specifically linked in the article you posted.

RobMc59 · 26-04-2020 01:57PM

Joe_ Public wrote: »

What are you referring to specifically? I dont see anything specifically linked in the article you posted.

I am pointing out the reckless behaviour which I believe is comparable to earlier mistakes.If the Gardai have been told not to arrest people in breach of regulations this is potentially even worse.

Enzokk · 26-04-2020 02:08PM

RobMc59 wrote: »

I am pointing out the reckless behaviour which I believe is comparable to earlier mistakes.If the Gardai have been told not to arrest people in breach of regulations this is potentially even worse.

I am confused on why you seem to want to bring this up. People from the UK are being told its okay to break UK lockdown rules and you want to make it about us in Ireland not arresting them?

The UK response to Covid-19 [MOD WARNING 1ST POST]

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