Covid19 Part XVI- 21,983 in ROI (1,339 deaths) 3,881 in NI (404 deaths)(05/05)Read OP

Hector Savage · 24-04-2020 05:40PM

tobefrank321 wrote: »

In fairness to bloodbath, we all know a lot more today than we did 2 months ago.

Antibody sample studies in New York and modelling in Spain by experts such as Imperial College, indicate these locations could have a prevalence up to 15% of the population and the fatality rate could in reality be as low as 0.5%. .

If we target better this group of people, we could get it far lower.

Hospitalisation rates are also far lower than initially thought. Instead of being 20%, they could be as low as 2-5%, based on the NY study.

We will never catch every cv19 positive case, in fact one Professor here reckons we only catch 10% - the Spanish and NYC studies back this up.

So basing hospitalisation and fatality rates on confirmed cases alone is a bad idea and could be out by as much as 90%.

Sam Harris had a good podcast with an epidemiologist
who was saying because of the massive underreporting of cases he was saying CFR is probably around 0.1-1% .. max 1%

Sawduck · 24-04-2020 05:40PM

You would think restrictions were lifted by the amount of people out around today including about 10 young girls drinking alcohol in a park, I just want this crap lockdown to end so I can see my family again and get back to my job, is there any point in the lockdown anymore if so many people are not obeying it

martingriff · 24-04-2020 05:41PM

Julianna Gorgeous Hydrant wrote: »

What did Leo say today about and extra 2/3 weeks?

Make a great effort for this last week keep numbers low and not to s%^$w up the good we have done as if we (we as those that are disregarding it) do and the numbers go up the lockdown will be longer or may get worse. BASICALLY STOP BEING AN IDIOT THINK OF A SHORT TERM PAIN FOR A GAIN

lbj666 · 24-04-2020 05:42PM

Sawduck wrote: »

You would think restrictions were lifted by the amount of people out around today including about 10 young girls drinking alcohol in a park, I just want this crap lockdown to end so I can see my family again and get back to my job, is there any point in the lockdown anymore if so many people are not obeying it

Eh yes there is very much a point of it

New Home · 24-04-2020 05:43PM

caveat emptor wrote: »

I'll translate. Basically you need to in bits. If you are not in bits then no test to see if you'll be in bits. It's a prerequisite to be in bits in order to know you are in bits and sick with covid.

Joseph Heller would be proud.

polesheep · 24-04-2020 05:45PM

lbj666 wrote: »

Eh yes there is very much a point of it

I disagree. There is a point with regard to a targeted lockdown, but not a total one.

jackboy · 24-04-2020 05:45PM

martingriff wrote: »

Make a great effort for this last week keep numbers low and not to s%^$w up the good we have done as if we (we as those that are disregarding it) do and the numbers go up the lockdown will be longer or may get worse. BASICALLY STOP BEING AN IDIOT THINK OF A SHORT TERM PAIN FOR A GAIN

Did he say what numbers are needed next week for easing of restrictions?

timmy_mallet · 24-04-2020 05:45PM

wakka12 wrote: »

The largest antibody test so far which was in New York state estimated a mortality rate of 0.78%.

Likely much higher in Lombardy and Madrid because of their large populations of elderly people.
New York has a relatively young poulation, a bit younger than Ireland's population. It also has an obesity rate similar to Ireland. So the 0.78% is probably very applicable to Ireland.

Er, yes?

is_that_so · 24-04-2020 05:46PM

martingriff wrote: »

Make a great effort for this last week keep numbers low and not to s%^$w up the good we have done as if we (we as those that are disregarding it) do and the numbers go up the lockdown will be longer or may get worse. BASICALLY STOP BEING AN IDIOT THINK OF A SHORT TERM PAIN FOR A GAIN

It may take every official voice coming out twice a day to hold the line. We are very much at the limit of effective lockdown.

timmy_mallet · 24-04-2020 05:46PM

jackboy wrote: »

Did he say what numbers are needed next week for easing of restrictions?

Whatever I pluck out of my ar$e that Nolan will back up, or vice versa.

24-04-2020 05:47PM

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

One poster made an excellent point, if it's so low in the community, it shouldn't be in the nursing homes.

Well it's in the nursing homes so it's very much out there.

I suspect it being so prevalent in nursing homes indicates it is likely infecting many more people in the community than we think. Probably significant asymptomatic numbers out in the community.

GM228 · 24-04-2020 05:48PM

Strazdas wrote: »

BBC reporter in Singapore speculating that warm tropical weather in the region may be one of the reasons cases and deaths are lower than Europe and the US

Ah sure heat, light or disinfectant may be beneficial

timmy_mallet · 24-04-2020 05:49PM

Deleted User wrote: »

I suspect it being so prevalent in nursing homes indicates it is likely infecting many more people in the community than we think. Probably significant asymptomatic numbers out in the community.

Which is a positive.

rm212 · 24-04-2020 05:50PM

Is there a press conference happening today?

podgeandrodge · 24-04-2020 05:50PM

Unfortunately, it would probably need the presence of Gardaí on the beat to 're-inforce' the current 'lockdown'.

Parents are clearly not giving a fúck about where their kids are, the irony being that their kids mingling with others heightens the risk for the parents and grandparents. That's the whole point about the exercise for family members together only, as they are already in the same household.

These fúckwits are risking further contagion and that is why they are risking the continuation of restrictions for the rest of us.

spookwoman · 24-04-2020 05:50PM

Sawduck wrote: »

You would think restrictions were lifted by the amount of people out around today including about 10 young girls drinking alcohol in a park, I just want this crap lockdown to end so I can see my family again and get back to my job, is there any point in the lockdown anymore if so many people are not obeying it

Just because Billy the B*llox or Ciara the c**t is ignoring the restrictions doesn't mean we should lift them.
Just on my street there are a number of high risk people including myself and these selfish f*ckers are the ones that are endangering lives and health.
What is more important people's lives or a job?

polesheep · 24-04-2020 05:51PM

is_that_so wrote: »

It may take every official voice coming out twice a day to hold the line. We are very much at the limit of effective lockdown.

I don't believe that will work tbh. It would add fuel to the fire. It would be far better at this stage to indicate a plan and bring people on board with that plan, which, of course, would include staying the distance with the restrictions. They have to give people something concrete to aim for.

helpful · 24-04-2020 05:52PM

Leo needs to get on the tv and make a public announcement similar to the one he did on St Patrick’s day. Let people hear him speak, tell them that if we don’t get this right this week it’s another 2-3 weeks. Fine those people who are breaking the restrictions €3,000 on the spot fine. €200 to be paid the following morning and a payment plan put in place. Cut their payments (if they’re getting the €350) and name and shame them.

GM228 · 24-04-2020 05:53PM

rm212 wrote: »

Is there a press conference happening today?

In 7 minutes (6pm).

frillyleaf · 24-04-2020 05:53PM

Sawduck wrote: »

You would think restrictions were lifted by the amount of people out around today including about 10 young girls drinking alcohol in a park, I just want this crap lockdown to end so I can see my family again and get back to my job, is there any point in the lockdown anymore if so many people are not obeying it

Yep it doesn’t feel like it is here anymore! We could have it extended as a result. We are nearly there and falling at the last hurdle

Benimar · 24-04-2020 05:55PM

podgeandrodge wrote: »

Unfortunately, it would probably need the presence of Gardaí on the beat to 're-inforce' the current 'lockdown'.

Parents are clearly not giving a fúck about where their kids are, the irony being that their kids mingling with others heightens the risk for the parents and grandparents. That's the whole point about the exercise for family members together only, as they are already in the same household.

These fúckwits are risking further contagion and that is why they are risking the continuation of restrictions for the rest of us.

Spot on. Kids from 5 households on my estate out playing together, not one single adult to be seen. It ridiculous. Has happened every day since Tuesday.

frillyleaf · 24-04-2020 05:56PM

is_that_so wrote: »

It may take every official voice coming out twice a day to hold the line. We are very much at the limit of effective lockdown.

They aren’t communicating this to people. I’m torn between thinking they are ok and are going to relax the restrictions early or extend them for another week! No Garda to be seen like previously. It is packed in my local town

martingriff · 24-04-2020 05:57PM

is_that_so wrote: »

It may take every official voice coming out twice a day to hold the line. We are very much at the limit of effective lockdown.

I probably agree with you but I think it would take more then official people I think we are an infulencers to start to come out and yes I do hate myself for saying that but it seem people listen to them more then experts

frillyleaf · 24-04-2020 05:57PM

podgeandrodge wrote: »

Unfortunately, it would probably need the presence of Gardaí on the beat to 're-inforce' the current 'lockdown'.

Parents are clearly not giving a fúck about where their kids are, the irony being that their kids mingling with others heightens the risk for the parents and grandparents. That's the whole point about the exercise for family members together only, as they are already in the same household.

These fúckwits are risking further contagion and that is why they are risking the continuation of restrictions for the rest of us.

More adults than kids I know are breaking restrictions.

Mic 1972 · 24-04-2020 05:58PM

Benimar wrote: »

Spot on. Kids from 5 households on my estate out playing together, not one single adult to be seen. It ridiculous. Has happened every day since Tuesday.

same here

JP Liz V1 · 24-04-2020 05:58PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I suspect it being so prevalent in nursing homes indicates it is likely infecting many more people in the community than we think. Probably significant asymptomatic numbers out in the community.

That's why I think we should be testing everyone, some could be out about infected with no symptoms

polesheep · 24-04-2020 05:58PM

helpful wrote: »

Leo needs to get on the tv and make a public announcement similar to the one he did on St Patrick’s day. Let people hear him speak, tell them that if we don’t get this right this week it’s another 2-3 weeks. Fine those people who are breaking the restrictions €3,000 on the spot fine. €200 to be paid the following morning and a payment plan put in place. Cut their payments (if they’re getting the €350) and name and shame them.

That's not how you get people on board, especially at this stage.

spookwoman · 24-04-2020 05:59PM

polesheep wrote: »

That's not how you get people on board, especially at this stage.

Only way is hit them in the pocket

jackboy · 24-04-2020 05:59PM

helpful wrote: »

Leo needs to get on the tv and make a public announcement similar to the one he did on St Patrick’s day. Let people hear him speak, tell them that if we don’t get this right this week it’s another 2-3 weeks. Fine those people who are breaking the restrictions €3,000 on the spot fine. €200 to be paid the following morning and a payment plan put in place. Cut their payments (if they’re getting the €350) and name and shame them.

Yep. Leo needs to go full terminator instead of an occasional quote.

Sawduck · 24-04-2020 06:00PM

frillyleaf wrote: »

Yep it doesn’t feel like it is here anymore! We could have it extended as a result. We are nearly there and falling at the last hurdle

Yeah that's my fear, if people just had a bit more sense and not break the restrictions this should hopefully end sooner

Covid19 Part XVI- 21,983 in ROI (1,339 deaths) 3,881 in NI (404 deaths)(05/05)Read OP

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