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Covid19 Part XVI- 21,983 in ROI (1,339 deaths) 3,881 in NI (404 deaths)(05/05)Read OP

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  • #3812
    Wombatman
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,349 ✭✭✭Wombatman


    Obvious Desperate Breakfasts wrote: »
    How would it work for my husband to return to work whilst I cocoon?

    He shouldn't have to if he lives with someone who is advised to cocoon.


  • #3813
    podgeandrodge
    Site Banned Posts: 5,975 ✭✭✭podgeandrodge


    eagle eye wrote: »
    It might be considered by you to be standard because you don't agree with it.
    Fact of the matter is we haven't done the right things here to get this thing under control. We all want the lockdown to end and to resume our normal way of life.
    In order to get there we have to do things right though and be aware of all consequences. We have to shut down the idiots who are talking about things they haven't a clue about.
    I've said many times on this thread that I'm not a scientist or medical professional but I read everything from official sources and try to make the sensible decisions based off of that information.
    It's clear that we need to all wear masks to get this thing under control. It's clear that social distancing alone is not going to get us to where we need to be to end the lockdown.
    Herd immunity is a non-runner at the present because of reports from a couple of countries of people getting infected a second time.
    Quarantine for everybody entering this country is a must. I'm of the opinion that the person should have to pay for this and not the Irish public and it should be state run to ensure its actually happening.
    We need people everybody, not 80%, to adhere to the lockdown rules.


    If they open things back up they are going to be responsible for a lot more deaths.
    I didn't bully anybody into anything, I just asked a straight, honest question.

    Maybe the person realised the consequences of what they'd just said and deleted it.

    Not entirely disagreeing with you eagle eye, just have different views.


    1. Fact of the matter is we haven't done the right things here to get this thing under control. We all want the lockdown to end and to resume our normal way of life.


    I think we have probably done the right things here, but perhaps with benefit of hindsight could have done more.



    2. It's clear that we need to all wear masks to get this thing under control.


    Not clear to me yet, as it seems to be reasonably under control given the flattened curve. It might need to be done if they remove restrictions on public places where crowds gather in close proximity such as pubs and restaurants (if that is feasible). But masks had little effect on community transmission in terms of those social distancing (and I accept that a lot of people can't social distance in certain situations like those who are still attending a workplace etc - of course masks may help there).



    3. It's clear that social distancing alone is not going to get us to where we need to be to end the lockdown.


    I don't think it is clear. I think the 'lockdown' is going to be relaxed in phases and this is largely down to social distancing that has been taking place. But I accept they may need to introduce masks in certain cases as I outlined above.




    4. Herd immunity is a non-runner at the present because of reports from a couple of countries of people getting infected a second time.

    Agreed.




    5. Quarantine for everybody entering this country is a must. I'm of the opinion that the person should have to pay for this and not the Irish public and it should be state run to ensure its actually happening.


    I can only go on what the authorities are saying - that sweet f.a. people are entering the country and that this is not a % contributor to the spread of the virus. I'm not giving my view here, only saying what I think they have said.



    6. We need people everybody, not 80%, to adhere to the lockdown rules.


    Absolutely. Only takes 5% of muppets to screw this all up. Last night on my walk I saw loads of young wans wandering around together - and they would have all gone back to their families and potentially spread it. And blokes going out to kick a ball around - walking up the street together. There is a world of difference between 2 family members walking side by side up the street, when they are living with each other, to friends doing the same thing, when they can cross contaminate and go back to their families and spread the disease. Muppets.





    7. If they open things back up they are going to be responsible for a lot more deaths.


    Possibly, for those that are older or with underlying conditions. Unfortunately, those in that circle have to protect themselves to a greater extent and be protected by their families to a greater extent. But for those that are younger and in good health, it simply isn't feasible to maintain a long term lock down of society on all people to protect the minority. That does NOT mean I am saying I don't give a fúck about the vulnerable!


  • #3814
    road_high
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,870 ✭✭✭✭road_high


    Iamabeliever wrote: »
    Loads of children out and about today. Great to see. At least their not confined to a classroom.

    Power of good for the health and mental wellbeing to be out today. Does people no end of good.


  • #3815
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,246 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    onedmc wrote: »
    Why is it that Ireland has one of the highest incidents of C19 per head of population in the world. Higher than Italy and just behind belgium

    We have a death rate higher than the US per head of pop

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

    This is probably because we are doing a lot of testing in comparison to other countries.

    Also nursing home data is included in all the figures which a lot of countries are not doing.


  • #3816
    caveat emptor
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,134 ✭✭✭caveat emptor


    BloodBath wrote: »
    The same as you saying this was 34 times deadlier than the flu?

    I was the only 1 early on who pointed out the discrepancy of all of you comparing the covid-19 death rate to the flu because it wasn't taking into account unconfirmed cases which the flu number did.

    Now those numbers are being estimated and it's driving the death rate well below 1% which I also said months ago.

    There was so much scaremongering bs going on and I called it out.


    Here's one of my favourites. You've no credibility. Your were extremely rude in your posts. Funny how you were wrong about nearly everything. You kept going on about uncertainty in modelling data. Painfully obvious. How's lockdown going?

    6034073


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  • #3817
    Obvious Desperate Breakfasts
    Closed Accounts Posts: 8,474 ✭✭✭Obvious Desperate Breakfasts


    Wombatman wrote: »
    He shouldn't have to if he lives with someone who is advised to cocoon.

    That's a solution. But then, he would have to restrict his life severely when he is fully healthy. My husband and I have dealt with an inhumane amount of stress in the last five years and will until I die and his pubs nights and playing football with the lads are a lifeline for him in keeping sane. He's okay putting them off temporarily like everyone else of course but boxing in his already restricted life (which was happening before covid19) for the long-term - christ. I'm not sure our relationship would weather such a thing.


  • #3818
    BloodBath
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,299 ✭✭✭✭BloodBath


    Sorry to others for this but I have to defend myself against this guy.

    Let's start with Dougal.

    Originally Posted by Odhinn
    Is it any worse than the yearly flu in terms of death rates?

    Originally Posted by Fr_Dougal
    Currently 250 times higher than flu.

    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=112520182&postcount=4898

    You're making up lies about thing's I've said when you were saying this.

    My reply.

    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=112520230&postcount=4901

    and more

    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=112520390&postcount=4909

    The numbers I used here were accurate at the time of posting.

    And more

    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=112520562&postcount=4924

    And yet more. The flu death rate number he used wasn't even right either. It's 0.1% not 0.01%.

    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=112520567&postcount=4925

    Everything I called you out on was right. Now you are resorting to lying about me because I called you out before. Pathetic.


  • #3819
    BloodBath
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,299 ✭✭✭✭BloodBath


    caveat emptor wrote: »
    Here's one of my favourites. You've no credibility. Your were extremely rude in your posts. Funny how you were wrong about nearly everything. You kept going on about uncertainty in modelling data. Painfully obvious. How's lockdown going?

    6034073

    I was extremely rude to people who were completely overblowing the numbers and causing fear and panic to those taking it as fact. Oh please forgive me!

    When people were saying this was 250 times deadlier than the flu and when pointed out they were wrong and still continue saying it forgive me for not being polite.

    I was right about most of the things I said.


  • #3820
    eagle eye
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,596 ✭✭✭✭eagle eye


    Kermit.de.frog wrote:
    This is probably because we are doing a lot of testing in comparison to other countries.
    Where can we find % testing figures per country? Or is this just an undocumented guess?
    Kermit.de.frog wrote:
    Also nursing home data is included in all the figures which a lot of countries are not doing.
    Again where can we get this data for every country?


  • #3821
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,246 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    eagle eye wrote: »
    Where can we find % testing figures per country? Or is this just an undocumented guess?


    Again where can we get this data for every country?

    Tests/million is listed on Worldometers, Ireland is around 22,000 which is not bad at all.


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  • #3822
    iguana
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,917 ✭✭✭✭iguana


    onedmc wrote: »
    We have a death rate higher than the US per head of pop

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

    I don't think it's quite right to count the US as one homogenous country. It's better to look at it as states/regions. Because on the one hand you have Hawaii/South Dakota/Utah with 8/10/11 deaths per million. And on the other you have New York State with 1,085 deaths per million, by far and away the absolute worst mortality rate than anywhere else in the world (apart from the microstate of San Marino, who's tiny population means it's 40 deaths push it into first). Second worst in the world is neighbouring New Jersey, with Connecticut and Massachusetts following close enough behind that they'd be top ten bad if we counted them as countries.


  • #3823
    BloodBath
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,299 ✭✭✭✭BloodBath


    caveat emptor wrote: »
    You were full of sh!te. What vested interest did you work for?


    You can cherry pick whatever you want. I was right about most of the things I said and the stuff I was calling out as BS was BS.

    How about a post from you?
    Glad you mentioned that again not a valid comparison. According to the latest ESTIMATE from the WHO (as of yesterday). The mortality rate of the COVID-19 "novel" virus is 3.4%. The seasonal flu is ~0.1%.

    What's the difference between those two numbers? Vast majority of people I know can't answer that cause they are both relatively small. Well 3.4% is an order of magnitude larger. Specifically

    34 TIMES larger

    That's not scare mongering. Thats bleeding maths!

    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=112721040&postcount=7326

    Care to admit you were wrong?


  • #3824
    bekker
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 912 ✭✭✭bekker


    tobefrank321 wrote: »
    Do you think a vaccine will be different?

    If the R0 jumps when we lift restrictions, we could in reality be faced with a near permanent lockdown until a vaccine, a vaccine that in reality might only protect 70%, in line with the current commonly used flu vaccine.

    If someone can guarantee a 100% working vaccine within the next 12 months then lets wait for it.

    Fact is no-one can guarantee that, not even the experts working on vaccines for decades. And that is a huge problem.
    Made no reference to a vaccine,

    Personally tend towards believing the likelihood that repurposing of an existing treatment, or combination of existing treatments, or some new treatment alleviating the symptoms is more probable than any early development of a vaccine.


  • #3825
    New Home
    Moderators, Arts Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 78,296 Mod ✭✭✭✭New Home


    Gretas Gonna Get Ya! wrote: »
    I still find it strange that a little helpless toddler, stands a better chance against this virus than a fully grown 40 year old man or woman...

    I have read that a child's immune system is not fully developed until they are about 7-8 years old.

    Makes me think there might be more at play here, than just immune response...


    Kids and those >90 seem to fare better. We assume their immune system isn't as strong as that of an adult.

    Utter speculation on my part: if part of the cause of the high mortality is an overreaction of the immune system (that attacks everything in its "sight", as opposed to just the virus), could it mean that those with a slightly less developed immune system (as oppose to those who are immuno-depressed) fare better because their system is not strong enough to overreact as much?


  • #3826
    Fr_Dougal
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,166 ✭✭✭Fr_Dougal


    BloodBath wrote: »
    I was extremely rude to people who were completely overblowing the numbers and causing fear and panic to those taking it as fact. Oh please forgive me!

    When people were saying this was 250 times deadlier than the flu and when pointed out they were wrong and still continue saying it forgive me for not being polite.

    I was right about most of the things I said.

    Here is where you told a front line worker for the HSE that he was wrong: https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=112736686&postcount=1892

    This is a consultant who is risking his own life to treat patients with COVID.

    HERE is his official AMA thread: https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=112856017#

    He’s a consultant, not a basement dweller playing video games on Steam.

    He IS the EXPERT.

    Honestly couldn’t make it up.


  • #3827
    tobefrank321
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,527 ✭✭✭tobefrank321


    Obvious Desperate Breakfasts wrote: »
    How would it work for my husband to return to work whilst I cocoon?

    Exemptions for people in your circumstances and for anyone who feels they'd prefer to cocoon until a vaccine becomes available.


  • #3828
    BloodBath
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,299 ✭✭✭✭BloodBath


    Fr_Dougal wrote: »
    Here is where you told a front line worker for the HSE that he was wrong: https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=112736686&postcount=1892

    This is a consultant who is risking his own life to treat patients with COVID.

    HERE is his official AMA thread: https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=112856017#

    He’s a consultant, not a basement dweller playing video games on Steam.

    He IS the EXPERT.

    Honestly couldn’t make it up.

    Ah yes deflect away from your own nonsense. How's that 250 times deadlier than the flu going?

    Him being a consultant does not make him an expert on covid-19.


  • #3829
    trapp
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 510 ✭✭✭trapp


    Fr_Dougal wrote: »
    Here is where you told a front line worker for the HSE that he was wrong: https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=112736686&postcount=1892

    This is a consultant who is risking his own life to treat patients with COVID.

    HERE is his official AMA thread: https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=112856017#

    He’s a consultant, not a basement dweller playing video games on Steam.

    He IS the EXPERT.

    Honestly couldn’t make it up.

    Dear oh dear oh dear my poor old friend.

    You havn't a clue my poor man.

    This hse consulatant is not an expert.

    He has no qualification in epidemics or virus or anything even like it.

    He says some sensible things but given the incredibly excessive cleaning regimes he recommends I wouldn't be taking everything he says as gospel.


  • #3830
    the.red.baron
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,636 ✭✭✭the.red.baron


    BloodBath wrote: »
    Ah yes deflect away from your own nonsense. How's that 250 times deadlier than the flu going?




    how much more deadly is it by the way?


    Howd you come up with your numbers?


  • #3831
    ek motor
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 548 ✭✭✭ek motor


    420 deaths in Italy being reported, lowest daily death toll since March 19th


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  • #3832
    Tokyo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 22,656 ✭✭✭✭Tokyo


    Mod: @Fr_Dougal, BloodBath - quit the píssing contest, both of you. Further posts like this will earn you both a threadban.


  • #3833
    tobefrank321
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,527 ✭✭✭tobefrank321


    Obvious Desperate Breakfasts wrote: »
    That's a solution. But then, he would have to restrict his life severely when he is fully healthy. My husband and I have dealt with an inhumane amount of stress in the last five years and will until I die and his pubs nights and playing football with the lads are a lifeline for him in keeping sane. He's okay putting them off temporarily like everyone else of course but boxing in his already restricted life (which was happening before covid19) for the long-term - christ. I'm not sure our relationship would weather such a thing.

    Sounds like what he's currently doing - pubs and football nights are closed at present! and will remain so if we continue down the lockdown route.

    If we went down the rolling lockdown route, he'd also be at risk of picking it up during a lifting of restrictions.


  • #3834
    BloodBath
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,299 ✭✭✭✭BloodBath


    the.red.baron wrote: »
    how much more deadly is it by the way?


    Howd you come up with your numbers?

    I don't know, nobody does, but it sure as hell isn't anywhere near 250 times.

    It's below 1% which would mean a max of 10 times deadlier.


  • #3835
    BloodBath
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,299 ✭✭✭✭BloodBath


    mike_ie wrote: »
    Mod: @Fr_Dougal, BloodBath - quit the píssing contest, both of you. Further posts like this will earn you both a threadban.

    Defending myself against lies started by Dougal.


  • #3836
    Wombatman
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,349 ✭✭✭Wombatman


    Obvious Desperate Breakfasts wrote: »
    That's a solution. But then, he would have to restrict his life severely when he is fully healthy. My husband and I have dealt with an inhumane amount of stress in the last five years and will until I die and his pubs nights and playing football with the lads are a lifeline for him in keeping sane. He's okay putting them off temporarily like everyone else of course but boxing in his already restricted life (which was happening before covid19) for the long-term - christ. I'm not sure our relationship would weather such a thing.

    Look you can't have your cake and eat it. He could also live elsewhere. Nobody said pandemics were fun.

    We need to stop the shotgun approach to care and restrictions and start to really target the most vulnerable. People who have to drastically change their lifestyle, because they live with someone who is high risk, should be supported too.


  • #3837
    timmy_mallet
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,165 ✭✭✭timmy_mallet


    Fr_Dougal wrote: »
    Here is where you told a front line worker for the HSE that he was wrong: https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=112736686&postcount=1892

    This is a consultant who is risking his own life to treat patients with COVID.

    HERE is his official AMA thread: https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=112856017#

    He’s a consultant, not a basement dweller playing video games on Steam.

    He IS the EXPERT.

    Honestly couldn’t make it up.


    If that number, 40,000 is correct, could we live with that? Yes, No? Is there a number we'd be comfortable with to go back to a sense of normality? Given that we're at 800ish. Where do you think (keep all-cause numbers in mind) we might hit the sweet spot for life as normal?


  • #3838
    Gretas Gonna Get Ya!
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,245 ✭✭✭Gretas Gonna Get Ya!


    New Home wrote: »
    Kids and those >90 seem to fare better. We assume their immune system isn't as strong as that of an adult.

    Utter speculation on my part: if part of the cause of the high mortality is an overreaction of the immune system (that attacks everything in its "sight", as opposed to just the virus), could it mean that those with a slightly less developed immune system (as oppose to those who are immuno-depressed) fare better because their system is not strong enough to overreact as much?

    Would that be like the cytokine storm thing we were reading about early on?

    I can't find the video now, but it was basically suggesting that our body actually goes nuts and starts flooding the lungs with a certain type of cell to combat the virus.


  • #3839
    Akabusi
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,136 ✭✭✭Akabusi


    Obvious Desperate Breakfasts wrote: »
    That's a solution. But then, he would have to restrict his life severely when he is fully healthy. My husband and I have dealt with an inhumane amount of stress in the last five years and will until I die and his pubs nights and playing football with the lads are a lifeline for him in keeping sane. He's okay putting them off temporarily like everyone else of course but boxing in his already restricted life (which was happening before covid19) for the long-term - christ. I'm not sure our relationship would weather such a thing.

    You sound like you are in a bad place, I hope things get better for you. Wishing you the best.


  • #3840
    Tokyo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 22,656 ✭✭✭✭Tokyo


    BloodBath wrote: »
    Defending myself against lies started by Dougal.

    Mod: @BloodBath - don't post in this thread again.


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  • #3841
    tobefrank321
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,527 ✭✭✭tobefrank321


    In fairness to bloodbath, we all know a lot more today than we did 2 months ago.

    Antibody sample studies in New York and modelling in Spain by experts such as Imperial College, indicate these locations could have a prevalence up to 15% of the population and the fatality rate could in reality be as low as 0.5%. .

    If we target better this group of people, we could get it far lower.

    Hospitalisation rates are also far lower than initially thought. Instead of being 20%, they could be as low as 2-5%, based on the NY study.

    We will never catch every cv19 positive case, in fact one Professor here reckons we only catch 10% - the Spanish and NYC studies back this up.

    So basing hospitalisation and fatality rates on confirmed cases alone is a bad idea and could be out by as much as 90%.


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