Covid19 Part XVI- 21,983 in ROI (1,339 deaths) 3,881 in NI (404 deaths)(05/05)Read OP

owlbethere · 23-04-2020 08:19PM

With news reports online saying young people are getting clots and strokes from this, even if asymptomatic. Other reports from doctors experiencing low oxygen levels in patients, Boris Johnsons original herd immunity was absolutely daft. You don't mess around with a new viral disease.

joe_99 · 23-04-2020 08:20PM

LRNM wrote: »

Yep as most have guessed already expect a big jump in numbers.

I've been testing all week and we're due to continue testing all nursing home and community hospitals and other various residential care settings.
Staff and residents including agency are being tested.

My own team has tested just over 250 this week and we're continuing right through the weekend.
Testing shifts being offered out on overtime too.

Have to say it's tough work as in physically you're going all day.

Great that we're actually doing it though.

Thanks so much for your efforts. Testing is so important.

Kermit.de.frog · 23-04-2020 08:21PM

Indonesia to ban all air and sea travel until June to halt spread during Ramadan.

The country has 7,775 confirmed cases and 647 deaths.

23-04-2020 08:21PM

Gretas Gonna Get Ya! wrote: »

Everything gets labelled as "meaningless" to you guys, when it's a stat or metric you don't like! :rolleyes:

You guys are so predictable! lol

Seriously, you are the only person I have ever seen mention average daily death rate anywhere ever. Cumulative and rate of change are what tell us what’s happening with death numbers. What date did you choose as day 1 for your average daily death rate? First case reported globally, in Europe, in Ireland, first death in Ireland? All are arbitrary and significantly change the data depending which you choose. But to engage your point there have been an average of just over 20 deaths per day in Ireland since the first covid19 death was reported. If for every day for the next 7 days we had 1 less deaths per day the average daily rate would still be rising. That is why your metric is meaningless. It does not take account of the current situation. Come back to me and talk about the rolling average and we can discuss

Jim_Hodge · 23-04-2020 08:23PM

nacho libre wrote: »

Are you suggesting that due to the lockdown the virus might evolve into a milder form in order to survive?

Nothing evolves in order to do anything. Some evolutionary changes improve survival chances others lead to extinction but those changes are not by choice or deliberate. In addition coronaviruses do not mutate the way a simple flu does.

ZX7R · 23-04-2020 08:24PM

flanzer wrote: »

No, I rang the GP and she said I should get tested anyway with my symptoms. I never asked about my our 10 year old daughter actually, and neither did she. That's a question for tomorrow I guess

Hopefully you will all be ok

Akrasia · 23-04-2020 08:24PM

joe_99 wrote: »

Re-read the conversation I was having. You have jumped in with zero context it looks like.

Sorry, this is a really busy thread, cant always keep on top of the context

I have seen plenty of posts ironically making the point i thouhht you were making though

Gael23 · 23-04-2020 08:29PM

With social distancing likely to be in place into the future, does that mean families won’t be able to come together?

mandrake04 · 23-04-2020 08:32PM

owlbethere wrote: »

This is a flu graph from Australia up to the 19th of December if anyone wants to make sense of it:

https://www.healthdirect.gov.au/flu-trends-in-australia

Please note, their winter months and probably flu season is June, July, August.

I think they had some flu in December. What needs to be established now is if that is the normal for there if its an increase or decrease in flu cases compared to other years.

Surely that would give an indication if this virus was circulating before it was found to be a new viral infection.

December is very popular for tourists as it’s summer, most are from the northern hemisphere so they bring flus with them and infect locals that’s normal enough.

is_that_so · 23-04-2020 08:34PM

Gael23 wrote: »

With social distancing likely to be in place into the future, does that mean families won’t be able to come together?

Personally, can't see how that could work as it's socially very destructive. I'd expect them to have some guidelines around it but definitely not insist that we stick to it with families.

flanzer · 23-04-2020 08:36PM

ZX7R wrote: »

Hopefully you will all be ok

Honestly, we've both had worse head colds. She'd nausea for a couple of days, and fatigued for one day. Her temperature was running at 38 - 38.5 for a day also She'd thought it might have been a menstrual cycle, due also.

I'd a tension type headache, for 2 days, fatigued for 1 and diarrhoea for another day. I really feel for those who got hit bad, and the 700 or so that paid the ultimate price. From listening to my wife and the stories from the front line, they're seeing things in there, they've never seen before

owlbethere · 23-04-2020 08:40PM

flanzer wrote: »

Honestly, we've both had worse head colds. She'd nausea for a couple of days, and fatigued for one day. Her temperature was running at 38 - 38.5 for a day also She'd thought it might have been a menstrual cycle, due also.

I'd a tension type headache, for 2 days, fatigued for 1 and diarrhoea for another day. I really feel for those who got hit bad, and the 700 or so that paid the ultimate price. From listening to my wife and the stories from the front line, they're seeing things in there, they've never seen before

Hopefully you will continue on that path where you are mild. There were reports online saying it starts as a headcold, it clears up for a day or two and then a flu illness hits. So hopefully you and your partner continue to be good.

Would you like to share your stories of the what the front line is seeing?

Rob A. Bank · 23-04-2020 08:40PM

INMO Trolley Watch figures for April 23rd 2020

32 beds short in Irish Hospitals this morning, Limerick being the most crowded.

https://www.inmo.ie/Trolley_Ward_Watch

nacho libre · 23-04-2020 08:40PM

Jim_Hodge wrote: »

Nothing evolves in order to do anything. So evolutionary changes impro e survival chances others lead to extinction but those changes are not by choice or deliberate. /QUOTE]

Yes it's random- there is not a guiding hand. So its a possibility the virus might mutate into a milder form as a consequences of lockdowns. We can't say for sure, though.

Rob A. Bank · 23-04-2020 08:41PM

Distribution of laboratory confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the EU/EEA and the UK, as of 23 April 2020 @ 08:00 hrs CET

novel-coronavirus-cases-EU-UK-2020-04-23.png?itok=d0DLAPg_

novel-coronavirus-cases-EU-UK-2020-04-23.png?itok=d0DLAPg_

A slow descent in the barchart of daily cases in Europe continues.

The UK, Spain and Italy still contributing the majority of cases.

Larger clickable version here :- https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Away With The Fairies · 23-04-2020 08:45PM

flanzer wrote: »

No, I rang the GP and she said I should get tested anyway with my symptoms. I never asked about my our 10 year old daughter actually, and neither did she. That's a question for tomorrow I guess

Hope you get better soon.

Gretas Gonna Get Ya! · 23-04-2020 08:46PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Seriously, you are the only person I have ever seen mention average daily death rate anywhere ever. Cumulative and rate of change are what tell us what’s happening with death numbers. What date did you choose as day 1 for your average daily death rate? First case reported globally, in Europe, in Ireland, first death in Ireland? All are arbitrary and significantly change the data depending which you choose. But to engage your point there have been an average of just over 20 deaths per day in Ireland since the first covid19 death was reported. If for every day for the next 7 days we had 1 less deaths per day the average daily rate would still be rising. That is why your metric is meaningless. It does not take account of the current situation. Come back to me and talk about the rolling average and we can discuss

I don't really give a toss what metrics others are obsessing over ad nauseum. Most people are sheep... you guys just follow follow... including our incompetent government and CMO btw. And most of you guys have been making completely useless and unreliable predictions over the last few weeks, so if you think I'm going to follow your lead... you're seriously mistaken!

You can focus on whatever stats you wish to... but you don't get to dictate to others what they choose to look at.

Average daily death rate is a very good and reliable metric. Of course people like you are going to dismiss it, because it doesn't paint the picture you're looking for. Why would I let a bunch of sheep influence how I think or analyse something...? I've never done so before this, not gonna start now!

wakka12 · 23-04-2020 08:47PM

https://www.reddit.com/r/China_Flu/comments/g6si0o/deaths_in_nyc_exceed_the_usual_upper_average_by/

Deaths in NYC exceed upper average by 17200. Represnting 0.2% of the city population

23-04-2020 08:48PM

is_that_so wrote: »

Personally, can't see how that could work as it's socially very destructive. I'd expect them to have some guidelines around it but definitely not insist that we stick to it with families.

Already having discussions at a family level about this. My own mother is in her early 70’s but living on her own and living about 1.5 hours away. Her brother in his 60’s is nearby and bringing supplies etc. Luckily I can work from home and my wife is off so we have been isolated to the one household and some other family members are in a similar situation. We are hoping when restrictions on movement are lifted a bit the will be scope for us to almost set up a family group. Travel between each other as long as separately we are not “socialising” in wider groups, thus allowing us to visit my mother and allowing her to see her grandkids

gabeeg · 23-04-2020 08:48PM

flanzer wrote: »

Honestly, we've both had worse head colds. She'd nausea for a couple of days, and fatigued for one day. Her temperature was running at 38 - 38.5 for a day also She'd thought it might have been a menstrual cycle, due also.

I'd a tension type headache, for 2 days, fatigued for 1 and diarrhoea for another day. I really feel for those who got hit bad, and the 700 or so that paid the ultimate price. From listening to my wife and the stories from the front line, they're seeing things in there, they've never seen before

Don't get too confident on your recovery. Take your time.

There's been a few others here, including a doc, who thought they were well on the mend - over did it a bit - and suffered a bit of a relapse.

This would normally be music to your ears I'm sure, but do as little as possible for the foreseeable. Good luck

23-04-2020 08:50PM

Gretas Gonna Get Ya! wrote: »

I don't really give a toss what metrics others are obsessing over ad nauseum. Most people are sheep... you guys just follow follow... including our incompetent government and CMO btw. And most of you guys have been making completely useless and unreliable predictions over the last few weeks, so if you think I'm going to follow your lead... you're seriously mistaken!

You can focus on whatever stats you wish to... but you don't get to dictate to others what they choose to look at.

Average daily death rate is a very good and reliable metric. Of course people like you are going to dismiss it, because it doesn't paint the picture you're looking for. Why would I let a bunch of sheep influence how I think or analyse something...? I've never done so before this, not gonna start now!

Disingenuous, numerically illiterate or both, done

flanzer · 23-04-2020 08:57PM

owlbethere wrote: »

Hopefully you will continue on that path where you are mild. There were reports online saying it starts as a headcold, it clears up for a day or two and then a flu illness hits. So hopefully you and your partner continue to be good.

Would you like to share your stories of the what the front line is seeing?

Thanks. Yeah, I hope we'll continue on this easier path

One of the things they're shocked by is the rapid progression from nothing to full blown pneumonia

1 example.
A girl in her early 30s was admitted being breathless and dizzy, with no known underlying health issues.
Chest xray showed nothing.
Blood test showed she'd diabetes (undiagnosed)
Within 5 hours, she'd full blown pneumonia and had to be intubated
It's faster in the elderly

They're seeing heart implications too in some people.

Outcomes are all very random and unpredictable

Gynoid · 23-04-2020 09:09PM

flanzer wrote: »

A girl in her early 30s was admitted being breathless and dizzy, with no known underlying health issues.
Chest xray showed nothing. ....
Within 5 hours, she'd full blown pneumonia and had to be intubated

How can that even be possible? Pneumonia is diagnosed by xray I think. Seems crazy.

Get well soon yourselves.

aidoh · 23-04-2020 09:13PM

Potentially very stupid question here but, if everyone in the country has been mostly staying indoors for over 2 weeks (i.e. longer than the max. incubation period), then how can there be any new cases?

ek motor · 23-04-2020 09:13PM

flanzer wrote: »

Thanks. Yeah, I hope we'll continue on this easier path

One of the things they're shocked by is the rapid progression from nothing to full blown pneumonia

1 example.
A girl in her early 30s was admitted being breathless and dizzy, with no known underlying health issues.
Chest xray showed nothing.
Blood test showed she'd diabetes (undiagnosed)
Within 5 hours, she'd full blown pneumonia and had to be intubated
It's faster in the elderly

They're seeing heart implications too in some people.

Outcomes are all very random and unpredictable

Very little is understood about this virus at the moment

Away With The Fairies · 23-04-2020 09:16PM

4.4 million unemployed in America in the past week

Jim_Hodge · 23-04-2020 09:21PM

aidoh wrote: »

Potentially very stupid question here but, if everyone in the country has been mostly staying indoors for over 2 weeks (i.e. longer than the max. incubation period), then how can there be any new cases?

Far from everyone is staying at home. Many still working for instance.

Miike · 23-04-2020 09:22PM

aidoh wrote: »

Potentially very stupid question here but, if everyone in the country has been mostly staying indoors for over 2 weeks (i.e. longer than the max. incubation period), then how can there be any new cases?

Healthcare workers, asymptomatic carriers, fomite transmission, pre-symptomatic carriers, household transmission, to name a few.

coastwatch · 23-04-2020 09:26PM

Miike wrote: »

Healthcare workers, asymptomatic carriers, fomite transmission, pre-symptomatic carriers, household transmission, to name a few.

Also, residents and staff in Long Term Residential Care, including nursing homes.

aidoh · 23-04-2020 09:27PM

Jesus it really must be the 'catchiest' virus ever.

Covid19 Part XVI- 21,983 in ROI (1,339 deaths) 3,881 in NI (404 deaths)(05/05)Read OP

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