Covid19 Part XVI- 21,983 in ROI (1,339 deaths) 3,881 in NI (404 deaths)(05/05)Read OP

the.red.baron · 22-04-2020 08:27PM

the.red.baron wrote: »

But there are loads of other things that affect how likely you are to end up in hospital

Even if say 50% of 20 to 30 year olds smoked a d none over 70 did, the numbers would be skewed to look like smoking helped

Chain smokers probably kick the bucket before they get into the at risk age category in the first place

What did I miss a stat that 3 to 8 percent of middle aged men?

Compared to what? What percentage of women? Another country

3 to 8% how could you rely on such a bad stat

What percentage of middle aged men needed hospital care here?

fullstop · 22-04-2020 08:27PM

Gretas Gonna Get Ya! wrote: »

1. Deaths per million is an inconvenient truth for many of you - people are just choosing not to believe it, because they don't like the ugly truth.

You keep banging on about deaths per million. It's completely meaningless until such a time as all countries report in the same way.

https://www.thejournal.ie/covid-19-how-does-ireland-count-deaths-5081171-Apr2020/

https://www.ft.com/content/67e6a4ee-3d05-43bc-ba03-e239799fa6ab

https://twitter.com/Care2much18/status/1252819591090155523?s=20

Gretas Gonna Get Ya! · 22-04-2020 08:28PM

Wibbs wrote: »

If there is an effect and it's looking fairly strong at this stage it's almost certainly nicotine*, not smoking itself. God forbid someone took it up or gave up giving up. DON'T. You've at least a 50% chance of it killing you. That's like playing russian roulette with three rounds in a six gun.

*what else might it be? Carbon monoxide maybe? In tiny amounts obviously. There are a lot of compounds in tobacco smoke, the vast majority of which are dangerous in some way.

Is nicotine actually dangerous? I thought it was just an addictive stimulant?

I thought it was all the other crap in fags, that was the killer... like tars and other carcinogens etc?

Andrew00 · 22-04-2020 08:28PM

Like I said, before are now getting fed up and starting to ignore the social distancing and stuff

FrToddUnctious · 22-04-2020 08:28PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

You realise I mean actually welding people in to their homes, right? Like Wuhan did. It's not a figure of speech!

Wuhan didn't weld people into their homes

:D

blade1 · 22-04-2020 08:31PM

SEPT 23 1989 wrote: »

The smokers will take back the pubs again

we will stand out in the cold no more

Non smokers not allowed in pub.
And you have to smoke in the pub as it'll act as a kind of disinfectant.

Typical, I gave up smoking so Murphy's law and all that :pac:

cnocbui · 22-04-2020 08:32PM

Kivaro wrote: »

Is the one in bold a new streaming service?

It's a measurement sensor some phones like mine have. Hold your finger on the sensor on the back and it measures your pulse rate and blood oxygen saturation level.

Seamai · 22-04-2020 08:34PM

Rayne Wooney wrote: »

We are almost a month into the current restrictions right? I think we’ve done about as well as you could expect a population to do up to this point, but from here on I see standards slipping big time, now is the time to ramp up the enforcement side.

But it’s not easily done, how many people are going over to their friends but saying they are going shopping or concocting some other story? How stringent are the checks at checkpoints, they really they should be IDing everybody in the car, if more than one person in car it should but automatic fine unless good reason.

For the first few days when I'd go out for my walk I'd notice a few Gardaí around but none for the last week or 10 days, lots of 2's and 3's of women out chatting today with very little evidence of distancing. My mother lives next door to me and we don't even go into her house , we sat in deck chairs 5m apart in the garden for a chat today.

t8010789 · 22-04-2020 08:35PM

I’ve noticed a visual increase in traffic on the M50 commuting to and from work over the past week when the government rules have not changed in that time time.

JoeA3 · 22-04-2020 08:35PM

Rayne Wooney wrote: »

We are almost a month into the current restrictions right? I think we’ve done about as well as you could expect a population to do up to this point, but from here on I see standards slipping big time, now is the time to ramp up the enforcement side.

But it’s not easily done, how many people are going over to their friends but saying they are going shopping or concocting some other story? How stringent are the checks at checkpoints, they really they should be IDing everybody in the car, if more than one person in car it should but automatic fine unless good reason.

lol. I haven’t seen a Garda checkpoint yet.

If people think the Gardai are going out there in force dishing out fines and arresting people going to the shops they are completely deluded.

cnocbui · 22-04-2020 08:37PM

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

Vitamin C
Vitamin D
Zinc
Pulse oximeter
Loo paper
Cigarettes

Do I need anything else to get over this?

A sense oh humour - not implying you don't have one, just something vital to add to the list.

Gretas Gonna Get Ya! · 22-04-2020 08:37PM

fullstop wrote: »

You keep banging on about deaths per million. It's completely meaningless until such a time as all countries report in the same way.

It's not meaningless... we just don't know exactly how meaningful it is yet, because the stats are not crystal clear.

But we can certainly deduce that Ireland is reasonably high up on the deaths per million table. How high up is obviously debatable - it may end up that we're slightly lower down... who knows.

But there is a big stretch from that, to saying it's completely meaningless... but then again, it suits certain people to dismiss the stats that don't match their agenda!

Just the same way people are ignoring our huge increases in average daily death rate over the last 2-3 weeks... inconvenient truths!

22-04-2020 08:37PM

dougm1970 wrote: »

worldometers have 39 deaths listed....mind you they adjust figures a lot for countries during the day

We announced 49 new reported deaths but removed 10 either through double counting or having been attributed to something else

wakka12 · 22-04-2020 08:38PM

Governor Anies Baswedan of Jakarta has expressed concern that the number of infections and deaths has been significantly underreported due to the low rates of testing in Indonesia.

https://www.hrw.org/news/2020/04/09/indonesia-little-transparency-covid-19-outbreak

By April 5th, at least 639 people had been buried with COVID-19 protocols in the cemeteries of the city of Jakarta alone.
By that date the entire nation(of 260 million) altogether had reported just 198 coronavirus deaths officially

Jakarta is just 11% of Indonesia's population.

Wibbs · 22-04-2020 08:38PM

the.red.baron wrote: »

What did I miss a stat that 3 to 8 percent of middle aged men?

Compared to what? What percentage of women? Another country

3 to 8% how could you rely on such a bad stat

What percentage of middle aged men needed hospital care here?

3-8% across different hospitals in different parts of China. It looked at men because the smoking rate in China is highly gender biased. Lots of men smoke, few women did. The fact that half of men from 40-65 smoke, yet of the 40-65 year old men that presented requiring treatment for Covid19 a much smaller percentage were smokers. This is pretty simple stuff here.

Gretas Gonna Get Ya! wrote: »

Is nicotine actually dangerous? I thought it was just an addictive stimulant?

Everything is toxic, it depends on the amount. But nicotine is bloody toxic at quite low amounts. I seem to recall reading somewhere that if you extracted the nicotine in one pack of fags and gave an adult human that amount all at once it would kill them stone dead.

the.red.baron · 22-04-2020 08:38PM

Seamai wrote: »

For the first few days when I went out for my walk I'd notice a few Gardaí around but none for the last week or 10 days, lots of 2's and 3's of women out chatting today with very little evidence of distancing. My mother lives next door to me and we don't even go into her house , we sat in deck chairs 5m apart in the garden for a chat today.

The key is to keep away from the likes of your mother

Saw lots of people out playing etc in the park but all were obviously enough family units

You will always see the odd group of young fellas about

Any time I've gone out in the car or bike I've passed or been passed by a Garda car or more depending on distance

I think they went into overkill the first week or two alright but once they see that most people aren't taking the piss they might have slackened off

t8010789 · 22-04-2020 08:39PM

JoeA3 wrote: »

lol. I haven’t seen a Garda checkpoint yet.

If people think the Gardai are going out there in force dishing out fines and arresting people going to the shops they are completely deluded.

N81 at Brittas. I get stopped in both directions but only had to provide a letter on one occasion.

2Mad2BeMad · 22-04-2020 08:39PM

JoeA3 wrote: »

lol. I haven’t seen a Garda checkpoint yet.

If people think the Gardai are going out there in force dishing out fines and arresting people going to the shops they are completely deluded.

Don't worry
come the bank holiday weekend for May, they will be out in force for them few days

frillyleaf · 22-04-2020 08:41PM

Gynoid wrote: »

One or two of the people running the country need to give a stern and definitive public speech on adhering to restrictions. Less of the prevarication or public soundings on back out measures. Take it seriously. No politicking. Tell some of the stories of real people dealing with coronavirus like the sick and the healers, the dead, instead of these numbers that confusingly shuffle and endless bloody graphs. With 12 days left up to and including May 5th we have a chance to really get on top of things. Plus time to learn more which is almost as important. We should stop p1ssing away that time with half cocked implementation of measures.

Yep. They need to have a press conference similar to March. I feel they won’t relax restrictions much looking at what is going on at the moment. I felt they might up until yesterday.

22-04-2020 08:41PM

Gretas Gonna Get Ya! wrote: »

So, let me see if I have this correct... there is a ban on mass gatherings of over 5,000 people until at least the end of the summer. Where did these knuckleheads in our government pluck that particular number from?

How does having a gathering of 4,999 people do anything to mitigate the spread of this virus?

And people can't leave their houses, but you can still have a licenced gathering under 5,000 people? How does that work exactly?

Seems like braindead logic to me... but perhaps someone can correct me if I have the wrong end of the stick here?

You have the wrong end of the stick. Some restrictions are going to be lifted. What and over what timeframe has yet to be set out. But as events over 5,000 require licensing they are setting expectations by coming out and saying none of these will be allowed. It’s not to say something under 5,000 will be allowed

stephenjmcd · 22-04-2020 08:43PM

Wibbs wrote: »

You missed this part: EG in China where 50% of middle aged men smoke, only 3-8% of Chinese middle aged men needed hospital. Same gender and age, different outcomes depending on what appears to be one obvious factor. When said factor should have the numbers going the other way because smokers have way higher levels of the other risk factors like cardiovascular disease and COPD.

If you found a group whose fetish was to stick feathers in their arse, but that ate lard, averaged 25 stones and never lifted a finger in exercise, but rarely showed up with heart attacks you'd be considering research into feathers up the bum as a way to reduce heart disease.

The french study now will be quite interesting. It would really be amazing and a game changer if nicotine was a factor in fighting off the more severe infections.

Definitely a study to follow closely

the.red.baron · 22-04-2020 08:43PM

Wibbs wrote: »

3-8% across different hospitals in different parts of China. It looked at men because the smoking rate in China is highly gender biased. Lots of men smoke, few women did. The fact that half of men from 40-65 smoke, yet of the 40-65 year old men that presented requiring treatment for Covid19 a much smaller percentage were smokers. This is pretty simple stuff here.

Everything is toxic, it depends on the amount. But nicotine is bloody toxic at quite low amounts. I seem to recall reading somewhere that if you extracted the nicotine in one pack of fags and gave an adult human that amount all at once it would kill them stone dead.

You have failed to state the difference in numbers though

Hit me with them, it's fairly simple

New Home · 22-04-2020 08:45PM

What Username Guidelines wrote: »

My grandmother, in a nursing home, was tested Thursday and results back Saturday. Positive

I'm really, really sorry to hear that... I do hope she's comfortable and that she'll be among the few lucky ones who come through to the other side like that ultracentenarian in Italy.

cnocbui · 22-04-2020 08:45PM

Wibbs wrote: »

3-8% across different hospitals in different parts of China. It looked at men because the smoking rate in China is highly gender biased. Lots of men smoke, few women did. The fact that half of men from 40-65 smoke, yet of the 40-65 year old men that presented requiring treatment for Covid19 a much smaller percentage were smokers. This is pretty simple stuff here.

Everything is toxic, it depends on the amount. But nicotine is bloody toxic at quite low amounts. I seem to recall reading somewhere that if you extracted the nicotine in one pack of fags and gave an adult human that amount all at once it would kill them stone dead.

Standard textbooks, databases, and safety sheets consistently state that the lethal dose for adults is 60 mg or less (30–60 mg), leading to safety warnings that ingestion of five cigarettes or 10 ml of a dilute nicotine-containing solution could kill an adult.

Drink 5L of water in under two hours and it will likely kill you. Some of the deaths attributed to MDMA were in fact cases of water poisoning due to over done hydration.

Gretas Gonna Get Ya! · 22-04-2020 08:46PM

Wibbs wrote: »

Everything is toxic, it depends on the amount. But nicotine is bloody toxic at quite low amounts. I seem to recall reading somewhere that if you extracted the nicotine in one pack of fags and gave an adult human that amount all at once it would kill them stone dead.

Same with caffeine... pure caffeine will kill you quite quickly.

But it seems unclear if nicotine is actually inherently unhealthy, or just highly addictive...

joe_99 · 22-04-2020 08:47PM

Gretas Gonna Get Ya! wrote: »

It's not meaningless... we just don't know exactly how meaningful it is yet, because the stats are not crystal clear.

But we can certainly deduce that Ireland is reasonably high up on the deaths per million table. How high up is obviously debatable - it may end up that we're slightly lower down... who knows.

But there is a big stretch from that, to saying it's completely meaningless... but then again, it suits certain people to dismiss the stats that don't match their agenda!

Just the same way people are ignoring our huge increases in average daily death rate over the last 2-3 weeks... inconvenient truths!

This is what our numbers look like if we followed other countries death reporting.

Any comments?

By the way reinforces ridiculousness of comparisons and league tables.

22-04-2020 08:49PM

Gretas Gonna Get Ya! wrote: »

It's not meaningless... we just don't know exactly how meaningful it is yet, because the stats are not crystal clear.

But we can certainly deduce that Ireland is reasonably high up on the deaths per million table. How high up is obviously debatable - it may end up that we're slightly lower down... who knows.

But there is a big stretch from that, to saying it's completely meaningless... but then again, it suits certain people to dismiss the stats that don't match their agenda!

Just the same way people are ignoring our huge increases in average daily death rate over the last 2-3 weeks... inconvenient truths!

Don’t want to keep arguing the point, but it’s not an inconvenient truth when it was expected. If we were at 10 per day it would be in inconvenient truth for those who argue the end of the world or at 500 per day an inconvenient truth for those arguing things are going ok considering. We are probably at the point where both groups will see in the data something supporting their point and that it’s what is perpetuating the circular arguments going on currently

cnocbui · 22-04-2020 08:50PM

JoeA3 wrote: »

lol. I haven’t seen a Garda checkpoint yet.

If people think the Gardai are going out there in force dishing out fines and arresting people going to the shops they are completely deluded.

At Easter I was stopped by one at Maam Cross in Galway at around 20:45. I was really annoyed that winding down the window a bit let some midges in.

22-04-2020 08:50PM

frillyleaf wrote: »

Yep. They need to have a press conference similar to March. I feel they won’t relax restrictions much looking at what is going on at the moment. I felt they might up until yesterday.

People are getting all worked up about the amount of people out, but as far as I can see people are socially distancing and being very aware. Sure there have always been some who have not, but the governments modelling would have always assumed a small proportion of rule breakers. As far as I can see, the majority are being smart, and bodes well for coming weeks

frillyleaf · 22-04-2020 08:55PM

ziggyman17 wrote: »

Looks like the lockdown is not going as planned......Lots of people breaking it and allowing their children to break it too....A lot of people sticking to the lockdown are people who cannot go to work and and are losing money as the 350 a week is no where near what they earn a week, while a lot of the lockdown breakers where I live are the ones on rent allowance, collecting jobseekers allowance, I am not saying all people on social welfare are breaking the lockdown, but where I live they are, and they do not give a s**t, they do not like being told what to do, when this is all over, the days of the year in year out handouts has to be looked at......People dying and these people just think of themselves.......

I don’t think this is a true reflection of who is breaking restrictions. Most people I know who are breaking the restrictions are people who run their own businesses, who have good jobs and are still able to work from home. They would be high earners and people I would consider to be on very good incomes compared to most people. A few of them also believe there is no housing or healthcare crisis in Ireland prior to this as it doesn’t affect them as they either own their own houses or have health insurance. They don’t see any issue with landlords charging high prices or investment firms bulk buying housing estates as they already own their homes and don’t rent. They don’t see struggles in the HSE as they only ever had to use private hospitals.

Some people can’t comprehend there is an issue unless it directly affects them

Covid19 Part XVI- 21,983 in ROI (1,339 deaths) 3,881 in NI (404 deaths)(05/05)Read OP

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