Covid19 Part XVI- 21,983 in ROI (1,339 deaths) 3,881 in NI (404 deaths)(05/05)Read OP

wakka12 · 22-04-2020 06:11PM

How long is this 'pleateau' supposed to last in Europe? Many European countries have been reporting the same (high) nnumber of deaths daily for weeks on end now

Even in Ireland looks like we will be seeing at least 20-30 deaths daily for the foreseeable now which is really a lot

Michael Dwyer · 22-04-2020 06:12PM

lbj666 wrote: »

I sincerely hope Simon didn't get 18 other corona viruses from the fact that this is Covid 19,

In all fairness he could be counting Danny Reilly and the rest of the band

It's a rolling figure aswell that includes other years.

ACitizenErased · 22-04-2020 06:13PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

You don't have to be an expert in virology to understand simple numbers.

49 deaths is 49 deaths whether it's increasing by 100% or 1%.

Equally 631 cases is 631 cases.

As you get more and more cases and deaths of course both inevitably grow by a lower percentage.

Over time it becomes less relevant in terms of the extent of the problem on the ground.

When percentage growth drops below 1% new cases begin to decrease. Therefore it is very important to recognise when we are approaching and pass 1% growth.

is_that_so · 22-04-2020 06:14PM

Tomrota wrote: »

Has the HSE ordered plenty of sanitiser and PPE for the schools? Schools should be closed till September at minimum. What’s the point in having a class of 30 divided into five days a week? They’ll be attending for one day per week, which is nothing. What a waste of time and risk to everyone for no benefit.

LC need to be in, if only to keep them off social media!

Allinall · 22-04-2020 06:15PM

frillyleaf wrote: »

Simon Harris is giving interviews which are resulting in mixed messages talking about schools being opened for a day a week etc. People are becoming complacent as a result I feel. In my estate it is like any other day with kids mixing, young kids from different families etc.

I don’t see any mixed messages.

What I do see is people not listening properly and jumping the gun with assumptions of things they thought they heard.

If the current lax attitude to the restrictions continue, then I can see at best nothing changing on May 5th, and possibly a further tightening of the restrictions.

The large minority of idiots will hold the country back for weeks, if not months.

richie_os · 22-04-2020 06:15PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

When percentage growth drops below 1% new cases begin to decrease. Therefore it is very important to recognise when we are approaching and pass 1% growth.

No they don't, they continue to grow by +1%. When the R0 number goes below 1, cases decrease.

Mic 1972 · 22-04-2020 06:16PM

The effects of people being sloppy with restrictions are starting to show. We got confident to quckly

Arghus · 22-04-2020 06:17PM

Well, that was a fine politican's answer there from Tony.

Stheno · 22-04-2020 06:17PM

Uturn on facemasks on the way

nacho libre · 22-04-2020 06:17PM

Regarding the mortality rate, someone mentioned there are 108 deaths where the cause is uncertain. You'd imagine at least some of those will be down to the virus. Given that the number of new cases is staying high or increasing slightly, at least some of these will be become serious cases. Can we put the increase in recorded cases solely down to better testing in the nursing homes, or is it the case that some of these cases maybe due to people becoming complacent in the last couple of weeks?

Arghus · 22-04-2020 06:18PM

If they were confident that there was enough facemasks for everybody they'd 100% be telling us to wear them.

kenmc · 22-04-2020 06:18PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Social distancing just ended in Vietnam. I am celebrating with beers on my couch, the exact same thing I've done every other night for the last three months.

What beer? Don't remember many particularly outstanding Vietnamese beer while there in 2006, wonder has it changed?
Did enjoy bia Hoi on the street from fresh tanks, served in a milk carton, though, and washing down some delish BBQ pork or meat cooked right by the edge of the street. Lifetime ago.

is_that_so · 22-04-2020 06:19PM

Arghus wrote: »

Well, that was a fine politican's answer there from Tony.

He's very good at not going off message. I like that they don't indulge in loose promises or make grandiose claims.

An Ciarraioch · 22-04-2020 06:20PM

A small reason to cheer in Kerry, at least - two consecutive days without a new case:

http://geohive.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/a192b58ba6904c1494f651706c223520

Michael Dwyer · 22-04-2020 06:20PM

nacho libre wrote: »

Regarding the mortality rate, someone mentioned there are 108 deaths where the cause is uncertain. You'd imagine at least some of those will be down to the virus. Given that the number of new cases is staying high or increasing slightly, at least some of these will be become serious cases. Can we put the increase in recorded cases solely down to better testing in the nursing homes, or is it the case that some of these cases maybe due to people becoming complacent in the last couple of weeks?

I'd say a bit of both re. cases. Can't see the results of nursing home tests being in so quickly. That measure was announced Monday and we know the process is slow enough.

lbj666 · 22-04-2020 06:20PM

Arghus wrote: »

If they were confident that there was enough facemasks for everybody they'd 100% be telling us to wear them.

Exactly and they had to be sure the people who needed it got em first.

lbj666 · 22-04-2020 06:21PM

Michael Dwyer wrote: »

I'd say a bit of both re. cases. Can't see the results of nursing home tests being in so quickly. That measure was announced Monday and we know the process is slow enough.

They started before last weekend and turnaround of tests/results is 24-36 hours now.

rm212 · 22-04-2020 06:21PM

I’m getting a bit pissed off with the government figures talking publicly about lifting restrictions. They keep talking about their publication of a plan soon and different ideas and whatnot, and it is definitely impacting how relaxed people are. The sentiment around here is that there will be a heavy relaxation on May 5, and as a result people are breaking the restrictions heavily now.

The government should be making no comment on relaxation until they
1) Have confirmed with the CMO that restrictions will definitely be relaxed
2) Have a very precise plan of what restrictions will be relaxed
3) Have prepared appropriate messaging, PR materials and warnings as to what measures must still be observed

We have none of these right now and quite frankly I don’t think we’ll even have number 1 come May 5th from the CMO’s current suggestions.

michellie · 22-04-2020 06:21PM

I had to go to the vets to get my dogs antibiotics today, which is next to a huge park.

It was packed with people walking and kids on the skate part. Not many small kids in the kids area but JESUS CHRIST PEOPLE

Duke of Url · 22-04-2020 06:22PM

This social distancing is starting to have no meaning without information on the tracing.

What % of the 600 or so new cases know how they got infected?

Longing · 22-04-2020 06:22PM

https://twitter.com/FergalBowers/status/1253010766527111171

Michael Dwyer · 22-04-2020 06:22PM

Maybe the wrong place to ask. Are agricultural masks, used for chemical sprays, hay dust etc. helpfull for Covid? I have a few.

ziggyman17 · 22-04-2020 06:22PM

Allinall wrote: »

I don’t see any mixed messages.

What I do see is people not listening properly and jumping the gun with assumptions of things they thought they heard.

If the current lax attitude to the restrictions continue, then I can see at best nothing changing on May 5th, and possibly a further tightening of the restrictions.

The large minority of idiots will hold the country back for weeks, if not months.

where I live, they seem to think that it is summer holidays and that their kids can run free all day mixing with kids from all different families....Lots of families have kept their kids from running a muck with other kids, but the usual dirt birds do not give a s**t and leave their kids to do what they like.....

is_that_so · 22-04-2020 06:23PM

rm212 wrote: »

I’m getting a bit pissed off with the government talks about lifting restrictions. They keep talking about their publication of a plan soon and different ideas and whatnot, and it is definitely impacting how relaxed people are. The sentiment around here is that there will be a heavy relaxation on May 5, and as a result people are breaking the restrictions heavily now.

The government should be making no comment on relaxation until they
1) Have confirmed with the CMO that restrictions will definitely be relaxed
2) Have a very precise plan of what restrictions will be relaxed
3) Have prepared appropriate messaging, PR materials and warnings as to what measures must still be observed

We have none of these right now and quite frankly I don’t think we’ll even have number 1 come May 5th from the CMO’s current suggestions.

1) That will very close to the day, maybe next weekend.
2) We'll definitely see that next week
3) They are pretty good at this now.

frillyleaf · 22-04-2020 06:23PM

Tomrota wrote: »

Has the HSE ordered plenty of sanitiser and PPE for the schools? Schools should be closed till September at minimum. What’s the point in having a class of 30 divided into five days a week? They’ll be attending for one day per week, which is nothing. What a waste of time and risk to everyone for no benefit.

No idea what they’ve done. I think this type of communication is very poor as it leads to speculation and people feel we are over the worst of it and have started to ease up big time.

Michael Dwyer · 22-04-2020 06:24PM

Longing wrote: »

https://twitter.com/FergalBowers/status/1253010766527111171

Will these be eventually added to the official Covid deaths?

DOCARCH · 22-04-2020 06:24PM

lbj666 wrote: »

They started before last weekend and turnaround of tests/results is 24-36 hours now.

Nope! 5 days...they hope...my mother's nursing home was told.

Kermit.de.frog · 22-04-2020 06:24PM

rm212 wrote: »

I’m getting a bit pissed off with the government figures talking publicly about lifting restrictions. They keep talking about their publication of a plan soon and different ideas and whatnot, and it is definitely impacting how relaxed people are. The sentiment around here is that there will be a heavy relaxation on May 5, and as a result people are breaking the restrictions heavily now.

The government should be making no comment on relaxation until they
1) Have confirmed with the CMO that restrictions will definitely be relaxed
2) Have a very precise plan of what restrictions will be relaxed
3) Have prepared appropriate messaging, PR materials and warnings as to what measures must still be observed

We have none of these right now and quite frankly I don’t think we’ll even have number 1 come May 5th from the CMO’s current suggestions.

Tony already said the way things are as of today restrictions can't be lifted.

That's what people are playing with if they don't want to see it through.

rm212 · 22-04-2020 06:24PM

Longing wrote: »

https://twitter.com/FergalBowers/status/1253010766527111171

That’s a very big proportion of probable deaths. If that figure stretched across the entire period where we’ve had significant deaths, that would be adding a mean of 5-6 deaths per day to the tallies!

Upforthematch · 22-04-2020 06:25PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

When percentage growth drops below 1% new cases begin to decrease. Therefore it is very important to recognise when we are approaching and pass 1% growth.

I think you mean:
When percentage growth drops below 0% you mean the growth in the number of new cases begins to decrease.

Of course these daily growth figures are unreliable given the reporting delays.

All you can do is look at cumulative figures over fixed periods. We have had over 700 deaths in one month to this week. If we have another 700 deaths in the next month that suggests some degree of stability/decrease.

Covid19 Part XVI- 21,983 in ROI (1,339 deaths) 3,881 in NI (404 deaths)(05/05)Read OP

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