The UK response to Covid-19 [MOD WARNING 1ST POST]

CelticRambler · 22-04-2020 03:33PM

Aegir wrote: »

The fact that there is trials is good news, is it not?

Yes ... well, no, maybe. There are "always" trials taking place in labs around the world, and currently 70 Covid-19 vaccine candidates under development. But these trials should take place in the habitual obscurity that accompanies such work, because it is most likely that out of those 70 vaccines, a grand total of zero will come to market. That's based on the historical difficulty of getting any coronavirus to confer meaningful immunity on the people who need it most, i.e. those patients whose immune systems go mental when exposed to coronavirus, tipping them into fatal illness.

For politicians (or their carefully chosen scientific advisors) to be standing up on a podium bragging about how much oomph they're putting into the "war on coronavirus" is sheer stupidity. Most countries' leaders are being quite sensible and saying nothing, because they know nothing and have nothing. The UK - and the US - are spinning every bit of news as progress, or even a "win" of some kind.

The biggest risk for Britain in this respect is that come Dec 31st (and barring any Brexit extension) the UK's medicines authority will be on its own, and subject to the full force of government interference. That means there's a very real risk that a Prime Minister battered by the increasing fallout from his bad decisions throughout 2020 will give the green light to one pharma company or another to push a vaccine onto the British market faster than would otherwise be allowed ... or prudent.

All for the sake of the same optics that we saw throughout the Brexit process last year, and throughout the pandemic this year. They'll probably even shovel bucketloads of taxpayers money towards the effort (we've seen plenty of precedent) and Big Pharma will be delighted - there's nothing better than being paid to run a large-scale clinical trial, with a government-issued get-out-of-jail card if/when the whole exercise turns sour. See Boeing & the FAA for a recent example of how well this kind of politically expedient fast-tracking and corner-cutting worked in the US.

Memnoch · 22-04-2020 03:56PM

blinding wrote: »

Trump was right on this . I see he has wisely stopped All Immigration for Two Months; He is again absolutely right on this !

Talk about an incredibly empty gesture. Commercial flights around the world are at a standstill, there are travel bans in force all over the place. He banned all immigration only to roll back on temporary workers after outcry from the business lobby. If anyone is going to be traveling to the US right now it's likely to be temporary workers. So in effect he has halted new green cards for the next two months which has no meaningful effect since even if people were getting their green cards it's very unlikely they would be traveling or be able to travel to the US right now anyway. Processing of these are going to be slower anyway because of coronavirus restrictions on office workers.

This of course ignores the reality that the majority of transmission of the virus is going to be taking place within the continental United States which has more infections than anywhere else in the world and is the center of the global pandemic currently. And where travel seems to continue essentially unrestricted.

This is just like his ban on Chinese nationals. At a time when the virus was already into the country and the real threat was from local and domestic spread rather than international arrivals. Even in the case of international arrivals there was no testing at international airports or contact tracing of any kind.

But these kind of superficial measures work wonders with xenophobic supporters who are happy to gloss over his total failure just as long as he is able to be seen as being tough on “foreigners”.

blinding · 22-04-2020 04:04PM

Memnoch wrote: »

Talk about an incredibly empty gesture. Commercial flights around the world are at a standstill, there are travel bans in force all over the place. He banned all immigration only to roll back on temporary workers after outcry from the business lobby. If anyone is going to be traveling to the US right now it's likely to be temporary workers. So in effect he has halted new green cards for the next two months which has no meaningful effect since even if people were getting their green cards it's very unlikely they would be traveling or be able to travel to the US right now anyway. Processing of these are going to be slower anyway because of coronavirus restrictions on office workers.

This of course ignores the reality that the majority of transmission of the virus is going to be taking place within the continental United States which has more infections than anywhere else in the world and is the center of the global pandemic currently. And where travel seems to continue essentially unrestricted.

This is just like his ban on Chinese nationals. At a time when the virus was already into the country and the real threat was from local and domestic spread rather than international arrivals. Even in the case of international arrivals there was no testing at international airports or contact tracing of any kind.

But these kind of superficial measures work wonders with xenophobic supporters who are happy to gloss over his total failure just as long as he is able to be seen as being tough on “foreigners”.

So , what you are saying is, he did not do this in time and should have done it sooner. On this , you are correct. Better late than never.

Of course the Democrats and usual suspects would have been against this ( they were ).

Memnoch · 22-04-2020 04:12PM

What he should have done was taken the situation seriously instead of wasting precious time downplaying, minimizing and making light of the situation while issuing empty decrees like a ban on Chinese nationals to play to his xenophobic support.

What he should have done was ramp up testing and contact tracing like South Korea was doing which had its first confirmed case the same day as the United States did. He should have been instituting strong measures within the continental United States because once the virus is in it is all about domestic spread.

As for international travel bans, the first step is to test and trace at airports and to ban all international travel that is not necessary. Banning travel from just Chinese nationals is and was pointless, empty and not really something that was going to have any real effect on slowing the spread of the virus. It absolutely was racist and xenophobic and designed to appeal to his base. Because it certainly wasn't designed to actually do anything about containing the spread of the virus since it was never going to make any dent in that.

theological · 22-04-2020 04:16PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

Yet you think there is any issue with the government not looking to fast track the collection of this data so that it can be assessed less than 10 days afterwards?

I have asked a few times, never get an answer, why are the numbers not up to date? This seems either gross incompetence by the government or on purpose.

Neither are a good look.

There will be delays in reporting deaths irrespective of manpower. Every problem isn't solved by adding more men onto it. Sometimes it can make things worse in fact. At least this is what I often experience in my own job.

Sometimes it is better to wait and ensure accuracy rather than rushing for figures. Or as you say "fast tracking". Which inevitably means less verification.

I've explained this before on numerous occasions.

Memnoch · 22-04-2020 04:17PM

theological wrote: »

There will be delays in reporting deaths irrespective of manpower. Every problem isn't solved by adding more men onto it. Sometimes it can make things worse in fact. At least this is what I often experience in my own job.

Sometimes it is better to wait and ensure accuracy rather than rushing for figures.

I've explained this before on numerous occasions.

You mean it is better to wait and give yourself time to fudge the numbers and cover up the needless deaths of tens of thousands of your citizens.

blinding · 22-04-2020 04:22PM

Memnoch wrote: »

What he should have done was taken the situation seriously instead of wasting precious time downplaying, minimizing and making light of the situation while issuing empty decrees like a ban on Chinese nationals to play to his xenophobic support.

What he should have done was ramp up testing and contact tracing like South Korea was doing which had its first confirmed case the same day as the United States did. He should have been instituting strong measures within the continental United States because once the virus is in it is all about domestic spread.

As for international travel bans, the first step is to test and trace at airports and to ban all international travel that is not necessary. Banning travel from just Chinese nationals is and was pointless, empty and not really something that was going to have any real effect on slowing the spread of the virus. It absolutely was racist and xenophobic and designed to appeal to his base. Because it certainly wasn't designed to actually do anything about containing the spread of the virus since it was never going to make any dent in that.

The WHO could have Informed everyone what Taiwan was doing but Instead they basically denied that Taiwan existed to Please their Chinese Masters ! ! !

Memnoch · 22-04-2020 04:28PM

blinding wrote: »

The WHO could have Informed everyone what Taiwan was doing but Instead they basically denied that Taiwan existed to Please their Chinese Masters ! ! !

But Obama hired a group of Filipino mercenaries to kidnap the family members of the WHO pandemic committee. That is why they could not report about Taiwan. Crooked Hillary, Bill Clinton and Kenyan Obama were in it all together. The real proof is in Obama's birth certificate! ! !

This all goes back to Obama's death panels that were created during the affordable care act when he was president. They actually created this virus in order to wipe out the elderly population and planted it in China ! ! ! !

We need to nuke the Philippines1 ! ! And Kenya! 11111!!!! !

Cuddlesworth · 22-04-2020 04:58PM

Memnoch wrote: »

But Obama hired a group of Filipino mercenaries to kidnap the family members of the WHO pandemic committee. That is why they could not report about Taiwan. Crooked Hillary, Bill Clinton and Kenyan Obama were in it all together. The real proof is in Obama's birth certificate! ! !

This all goes back to Obama's death panels that were created during the affordable care act when he was president. They actually created this virus in order to wipe out the elderly population and planted it in China ! ! ! !

We need to nuke the Philippines1 ! ! And Kenya! 11111!!!! !

You need to put a /S at the end, it's really hard to tell Satire from real fans of the moron.

Leroy42 · 22-04-2020 05:01PM

theological wrote: »

There will be delays in reporting deaths irrespective of manpower. Every problem isn't solved by adding more men onto it. Sometimes it can make things worse in fact. At least this is what I often experience in my own job.

Sometimes it is better to wait and ensure accuracy rather than rushing for figures. Or as you say "fast tracking". Which inevitably means less verification.

I've explained this before on numerous occasions.

Why? If you had a person in every care home reporting each day don't you agree that the numbers would be up to date? So your point about manpower is simply not true.

I agree with your point that simply more manpower does not in itself solve the problem, hence the need for management and proper system. Minister are supposed to be in charge of that.

But since we know that the numbers are no accurate, why give any out? Why not say, "we don't have the numbers, give us a few days and we will have them". But that isn't what they did or are doing. They continue to publish incomplete numbers, with the small print that these aren't the full numbers, and then go on about flattening the curve, maybe easing restrictions. But they cannot say anything because, by their own admission, they don't have the numbers.

So you have a government making decisions based on the wrong numbers. And why, if they are so fixated on 'following the scientific advice' are they ignoring the fact that the advice is based on incomplete data?

You have not once explained why you deem it acceptable that the government continues to fail to get the right numbers. They have had weeks to sort it out

theological · 22-04-2020 05:06PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

Why? If you had a person in every care home reporting each day don't you agree that the numbers would be up to date? So your point about manpower is simply not true.

I agree with your point that simply more manpower does not in itself solve the problem, hence the need for management and proper system. Minister are supposed to be in charge of that.

But since we know that the numbers are no accurate, why give any out? Why not say, "we don't have the numbers, give us a few days and we will have them". But that isn't what they did or are doing. They continue to publish incomplete numbers, with the small print that these aren't the full numbers, and then go on about flattening the curve, maybe easing restrictions. But they cannot say anything because, by their own admission, they don't have the numbers.

So you have a government making decisions based on the wrong numbers. And why, if they are so fixated on 'following the scientific advice' are they ignoring the fact that the advice is based on incomplete data?

You have not once explained why you deem it acceptable that the government continues to fail to get the right numbers. They have had weeks to sort it out

You think that there aren't people reporting the figures each day in care homes? Why do you think this? I'd say that this is already happening.

It still takes time to verify that the data is correct.

In some cases there can be delays in reporting. I'd rather accurate data than inaccurate data.

Leroy42 · 22-04-2020 05:18PM

theological wrote: »

You think that there aren't people reporting the figures each day in care homes? Why do you think this? I'd say that this is already happening.

It still takes time to verify that the data is correct.

In some cases there can be delays in reporting. I'd rather accurate data than inaccurate data.

You would say? You have no idea, neither do I.

They don't give us the daily figures, so I can only summise that they don't have them. But even if they are not accurate, whom do you think should be looking at that system to correct the issues?

Any time they are asked they resort to two weeks old figures and then say they don't want to speculate. Which is fine, so go out and find the numbers.

You keep saying you want accurate data, but you seem fine with the government publishing incomplete data every, single, day. Why not produce the numbers they have, including care homes, and have the caveat that the numbers can change (which incidentially they currently do anyway).

Make up your mind which it is you want to argue for.

theological · 22-04-2020 05:27PM

I'm sure the government would appreciate your assistance if it is so straight forward a task to ensure accuracy given the large amount of care homes. There are fewer hospitals which makes it easier to collate the results. Even then deaths are sometimes updated a few days later.

This is probably why most graphing that happens around these figures is done with 7 day rolling averages.

I will argue for what I want to argue for rather than what you tell me I should argue for. Cop on.

Enzokk · 22-04-2020 05:30PM

Raab asked about the surcharge people from outside the EU has to pay to access the NHS. Unsurprisingly he dodges answering the question of whether it is fair those most at risk on the front line and working in the NHS are forced to pay to use the system.

Leroy42 · 22-04-2020 05:46PM

theological wrote: »

I'm sure the government would appreciate your assistance if it is so straight forward a task to ensure accuracy given the large amount of care homes. There are fewer hospitals which makes it easier to collate the results. Even then deaths are sometimes updated a few days later.

This is probably why most graphing that happens around these figures is done with 7 day rolling averages.

I will argue for what I want to argue for rather than what you tell me I should argue for. Cop on.

I never said don't argue, just make up your mind what that actually is.

No point publishing figures if they are wrong. I think the numbers they are publishing are right. Even though you know they are wrong.

And instead of answering the question as to why you seemingly accept that the UK government is incapable, two months into a major crisis, of getting complete numbers you make a snide remark about me thinking it is so easy.

Yes it is easy, if you wish it to be. This is not some complicated process. Simple system to allow each care home & hospital or whenever to send in daily numbers by a certain time.

This is the 21st century, not WW1. Numbers should not be taking 2 weeks to get published.

Dave0301 · 22-04-2020 05:50PM

Rabb just asked has he read the Operration Cygnus report (into the UK response to pandemics)

Raab: Emmm I would have to go and check.

The man in charge of the UK Government ladies and gents :pac:

A Dub in Glasgo · 22-04-2020 06:17PM

Dave0301 wrote: »

Rabb just asked has he read the Operration Cygnus report (into the UK response to pandemics)

Raab: Emmm I would have to go and check.

The man in charge of the UK Government ladies and gents :pac:

This is from the man who said he dipped in and out of the Good Friday Agreement like he was reading an atlas that showed him where Dover was

Joe_ Public · 22-04-2020 06:18PM

Dave0301 wrote: »

Rabb just asked has he read the Operration Cygnus report (into the UK response to pandemics)

Raab: Emmm I would have to go and check.

The man in charge of the UK Government ladies and gents :pac:

It's on his to do list, right after he's finished reading the good friday agreement. Hancock will surely thank him though for lobbing that back in his direction. That surcharge is an obvious scandal, they're actually raising it this year at a time many of those subject to it are dying while trying to save british lives. Raab could have tried to show some leadership - he's effectively acting leader after all - but he ran away from it, like he invariably skidaddles from anything tough. No surprise really.

blinding · 22-04-2020 06:27PM

Memnoch wrote: »

But Obama hired a group of Filipino mercenaries to kidnap the family members of the WHO pandemic committee. That is why they could not report about Taiwan. Crooked Hillary, Bill Clinton and Kenyan Obama were in it all together. The real proof is in Obama's birth certificate! ! !

This all goes back to Obama's death panels that were created during the affordable care act when he was president. They actually created this virus in order to wipe out the elderly population and planted it in China ! ! ! !

We need to nuke the Philippines1 ! ! And Kenya! 11111!!!! !

Trump will surely lock them up now with the WHO. Thanks for the Information.

theological · 22-04-2020 07:15PM

More good news.

UK hospital deaths are down to 753 today. This is a good move in the right direction which I hope can be sustained. Chris Whitty put some cold water on the idea that deaths will drop suddenly.

Hospital admissions are falling in London. They are flattening in other regions. This is also good news. We can expect this to feed into death figures in a few weeks.

kyote00 · 22-04-2020 07:28PM

FT research indicates that the real figure is 41k deaths - surely this can;t be right....thats more than died in the Blitz

Surely, there would be riots, civil unrest if that was the real death toll in 8-10 week timeframe

https://www.ft.com/content/67e6a4ee-3d05-43bc-ba03-e239799fa6ab

Joe_ Public · 22-04-2020 07:28PM

All good news welcome.

I notice too that the government is now acknowledging that care home deaths are being underreported by the ons. They are suggesting the figure is in the region of double what the ons has indicated. They'll need to scale up again almost certainly though as reports from the front line care sector itself suggests the actual total is at least four times higher and likely more.

Joe_ Public · 22-04-2020 07:30PM

kyote00 wrote: »

FT research indicates that the real figure is 41k deaths - surely this can;t be right....thats more than died in the Blitz

Surely, there would be riots, civil unrest if that was the real death toll in 8-10 week timeframe

https://www.ft.com/content/67e6a4ee-3d05-43bc-ba03-e239799fa6ab

I believe they are saying there have been 41,000 excess deaths, not necessarily all related to covid. Majority still would though.

A Dub in Glasgo · 22-04-2020 07:36PM

Anyone see ITV News this evening regarding deaths in care homes? they had the Scotland correspondent on (Peter Smith) and he stated '1 in 3 in Scotland versus 1 in 10 in England & Wales - something is not right in Scotland'. Does not even mention the dates so he (and others) are plainly ignorant or they are using the more up to date (19 April) figures NRS uses to compare out of date (10 April) ONS figures for some angle

Joe_ Public · 22-04-2020 07:38PM

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Anyone see ITV News this evening regarding deaths in care homes? they had the Scotland correspondent on (Peter Smith) and he stated '1 in 3 in Scotland versus 1 in 10 in England & Wales - something is not right in Scotland'. Does not even mention the dates so he (and others) are plainly ignorant or they are using the more up to date (19 April) figures NRS uses to compare out of date (10 April) ONS figures for some angle

Yeah thats rubbish. That goes back to the first ons report on April 1st where they claimed 90% of deaths were taking place in hospitals. The real figure is probably in excess of 40%, possibly far higher.

Enzokk · 22-04-2020 07:57PM

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Yeah thats rubbish. That goes back to the first ons report on April 1st where they claimed 90% of deaths were taking place in hospitals. The real figure is probably in excess of 40%, possibly far higher.

I thought I heard them saying in the press conference that the number of deaths in care homes are around 20% of the total. I would have hoped that they would not make such assertions without proof and proper testing to have the real numbers.

Joe_ Public · 22-04-2020 08:02PM

Enzokk wrote: »

I thought I heard them saying in the press conference that the number of deaths in care homes are around 20% of the total. I would have hoped that they would not make such assertions without proof and proper testing to have the real numbers.

They originally held that 10% of deaths came outside hospitals. So now they're saying double, revising it up to 20%. But there were two reports from care home organisations last week suggesting at least 4,000 people had died in care homes. Thats a minimum figure and its four times what the ons are saying.

Enzokk · 22-04-2020 08:39PM

Joe_ Public wrote: »

They originally held that 10% of deaths came outside hospitals. So now they're saying double, revising it up to 20%. But there were two reports from care home organisations last week suggesting at least 4,000 people had died in care homes. Thats a minimum figure and its four times what the ons are saying.

I don't know what the figure is, but seeing that most other EU countries seem to be reporting at least 40% up to almost 60%, it seems a little strange to not accept this number and to prepare for it. That is unless you screwed up along the way and any extra deaths added to the total are being avoided at all cost.

robinph · 22-04-2020 08:43PM

kyote00 wrote: »

FT research indicates that the real figure is 41k deaths - surely this can;t be right....thats more than died in the Blitz

Surely, there would be riots, civil unrest if that was the real death toll in 8-10 week timeframe

https://www.ft.com/content/67e6a4ee-3d05-43bc-ba03-e239799fa6ab

Those 41k are not spread evenly over the last two months of course, but when the regular weekly death rate is in the region of 9k-12k the 41k not being noticed by the population and coffins not piling up on makes more sense.

The systems in place are so far handling the numbers, even if they are not handling the numbers of PPE required.

Joe_ Public · 22-04-2020 09:04PM

Enzokk wrote: »

I don't know what the figure is, but seeing that most other EU countries seem to be reporting at least 40% up to almost 60%, it seems a little strange to not accept this number and to prepare for it. That is unless you screwed up along the way and any extra deaths added to the total are being avoided at all cost.

True, nobody really knows what the exact figure is but best estimates would be around the 40% mark or upwards. The whole way they've been reporting does beg questions. I'm not saying necessarily anything hooky here, but just feels like they only accept and acknowledge things when public or media pressure is brought and ita why they seem to be behind with so many things and people are losing more and more trust and god knows that was low enough to begin with.

The UK response to Covid-19 [MOD WARNING 1ST POST]

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