Covid19 Part XVI- 21,983 in ROI (1,339 deaths) 3,881 in NI (404 deaths)(05/05)Read OP

ZX7R · 22-04-2020 12:20PM

Germany have authorised it's first clinical
Tests on there vaxine for covid-19.
It's been tested on volunteers

wakka12 · 22-04-2020 12:21PM

eagle eye wrote: »

I'm very suspect about Sweden's numbers. They have a lot of deaths compared to the number of cases. They're claiming just 15k cases but have over 1700 deaths, that's like a mortality rate from the virus of over 11%.

Sweden is reporting deaths extremely accurately, the number of excess deaths reported above the national average for March and April almost pefectly mirrors the reported COVID deaths. As for the rate of deaths compared to cases, its largely irrelevant if the number of tests being done is small.

It just remains an enigma, I dont understand how things got so bad in so many European countries but not Sweden

growleaves · 22-04-2020 12:21PM

World Food Programme warns of 'multiple famines of biblical proportions'

"In a worst-case scenario, we could be looking at famine in about three dozen countries, and in fact, in ten of these countries we already have more than one million people per country who are on the verge of starvation," he said.

But he said he raised the prospect of a hunger "pandemic" because "there is also a real danger that more people could potentially die from the economic impact of Covid-19 than from the virus itself".

Malthusian catastrophes on the way potentially.

The excess productivity of the world economy currently supports the existence of 7.8 billion people. (In 1804 global population was just 1 billion). Take away this excess productivity for an indefinite period and...

polesheep · 22-04-2020 12:24PM

seamus wrote: »

Yes, this has been said for a while. It's not GPs and doctors "ignoring" normal medicine, its people doing their level best to stay away from GPs and hospitals until the Covid crisis has passed.

There's nothing really wrong with phone consultations. Like companies have resisted home-working for a long time, GPs have resisted remote consultations, because face-to-face makes them more comfortable, makes them feel like they have more control.

The reality is that unless there is a physical examination required, then there it makes no difference whether the GP asks you questions over the phone or in their office.

Patients though have some difficulty with this, because we expect to see a doctor, not to just talk about being sick and get a prescription. People are not managing their health properly, and it's a big problem.

There have been a few graphs floating around about the different "waves" of illness, the massive challenges that our health services are facing beyond Covid.

Wave 2 is not the next surge of the virus. It's the people who have deferred acute conditions over the last two months and will start presenting in hospital with end-stage heart failure, COPD, pneumonia and other preventable/treatable conditions. Ordinarily our health service can cope when they present in normal numbers, not when they all start appearing at once.

Wave 3 is people with chronic or long-term conditins who've deferred treatment; cancers, surgeries, etc.; and are now in a serious mess.

After that is a surge in mental illness cases. PTSD, depression, suicide, etc. This will hit healthcare incredibly hard since healthcare workers themselves will make up so many of the patients.

I'm sorry, but the above is nonsense. For general health and particularly mental health issues a face to face with a GP can be essential. Plus there are many people out there who would be unable to articulate over the phone what is wrong with them.

yourdeadwright · 22-04-2020 12:26PM

Just me or are we currently doing quite well,
Numbers seem to be no where near what people where thinking
Also we seem to be over the worst of it ,

We really only in this since the start of march and its looking like by the end of June number will be very very little,

tobefrank321 · 22-04-2020 12:28PM

patnor1011 wrote: »

Good luck waiting for vaccine. This virus is mutating so fast that developing vaccine may be pointless excercise or good just as a PR stunt.

Coronavirus’s ability to mutate has been vastly underestimated, and mutations affect deadliness of strains, Chinese study finds

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3080771/coronavirus-mutations-affect-deadliness-strains-chinese-study

They've found two different strains in the US, among many strains. One strain delivers a low viral load, the other which seems to be affecting New York has a viral load 270 times the milder strain.

The virus is definitely mutating depending on geography and population facts. Its lethality appears to be far worse in dense cities like NYC. It would be interesting to compare deaths per cases in places like NYC and London with less urban areas. Even Wuhan vs Hubei in general might point to something. I don't think they have those stats for Dublin, just deaths in the east.

Based on previous viruses, a virus that has easy access to victims in denser cities doesn't need to change behaviour too much to survive and spread.

So its possible the reason for more lethal cases in urban areas is the rapid spread caused by a higher number of victims but also there's no need for the virus to mutate to a milder strain to survive and spread.

Rob A. Bank · 22-04-2020 12:30PM

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Gynoid wrote: »

I have listened to a couple of Merkel's speeches lately and she seems really sound about this predicament. Calm, rational, stoic but very clear that we are as yet only at the beginning of this experience. It is trying for many, I get that. But a new pathogen emerged not long ago and we are still very uncertain of how big a problem it really is. Patience.

Merkel is a trained scientist, and it shows. She obtained a doctorate in quantum chemistry in 1986 and worked as a research scientist until she went into politics.

Chen Chien-jen, the current vice president of Taiwan, is a trained Epidemiologist who spearheaded their response to the SARS outbreak.

It certainly helps to have scientific expertise at the head of government when dealing with this damned virus.

polesheep · 22-04-2020 12:31PM

yourdeadwright wrote: »

Just me or are we currently doing quite well,
Numbers seem to be no where near what people where thinking
Also we seem to be over the worst of it ,

We really only in this since the start of march and its looking like by the end of June number will be very very little,

Yes, we are doing very well. If you remove the nursing homes, then our stats are very good indeed. I say remove the nursing homes not because those lives are in any way less valuable, but because it should be a controllable environment. In fact, if we learn to better manage those areas in society that are most at risk, this shouldn't such a big deal for the rest of society.

tobefrank321 · 22-04-2020 12:32PM

wakka12 wrote: »

Sweden is reporting deaths extremely accurately, the number of excess deaths reported above the national average for March and April almost pefectly mirrors the reported COVID deaths. As for the rate of deaths compared to cases, its largely irrelevant if the number of tests being done is small.

It just remains an enigma, I dont understand how things got so bad in so many European countries but not Sweden

Low population density?

Belgium on the otherhand is a very dense country.

eagle eye · 22-04-2020 12:34PM

I've met one other person, besides myself, on my last two trips to the supermarket who wore a facemask. I just don't get it, are we not trying to ensure we get rid of this thing?

threeball · 22-04-2020 12:35PM

tobefrank321 wrote: »

They've found two different strains in the US, among many strains. One strain delivers a low viral load, the other which seems to be affecting New York has a viral load 270 times the milder strain.

The virus is definitely mutating depending on geography and population facts. Its lethality appears to be far worse in dense cities like NYC. It would be interesting to compare deaths per cases in places like NYC and London with less urban areas. Even Wuhan vs Hubei in general might point to something. I don't think they have those stats for Dublin, just deaths in the east.

Based on previous viruses, a virus that has easy access to victims in denser cities doesn't need to change behaviour too much to survive and spread.

So its possible the reason for more lethal cases in urban areas is the rapid spread cause by a higher number of victims but also there's no need for the virus to mutate to a milder strain to survive and spread.

They've also found a link between poor air quality and an increased deaths rates. This would explain regions like Lombardy, Holland, New York and London getting absolutely smashed and places like Sweden getting off relatively lightly considering their approach. The pollution left peoples lungs vulnerable to worse infections.

JDD · 22-04-2020 12:37PM

threeball wrote: »

They've also found a link between poor air quality and an increased deaths rates. This would explain regions like Lombardy, Holland, New York and London getting absolutely smashed and places like Sweden getting off relatively lightly considering their approach. The pollution left peoples lungs vulnerable to worse infections.

Given the air quality in most Chinese cities, that would be another reason to think that there were way more deaths in Wuhan that the Chinese have admitted.

DOCARCH · 22-04-2020 12:37PM

polesheep wrote: »

If you remove the nursing homes, then our stats are very good indeed.

But we can't, so we are not!

What you have said, basically, if we don't count all the people that die, then we're doing a great job!

threeball · 22-04-2020 12:38PM

JDD wrote: »

Given the air quality in most Chinese cities, that would be another reason to think that there were way more deaths in Wuhan that the Chinese have admitted.

And yet another reason to clean up our act environmentally. If we learn one thing from all of this, that should be it.

Rob A. Bank · 22-04-2020 12:39PM

Deleted User wrote: »

The checkout staff at Lidl are more on the frontline than GP's hiding from their own patients. But they will still take the plaudits when this is all over.

Cheap shot...

The average age of GPs in Ireland was 59 in 2019, which puts them in the danger zone for this virus.

I imagine not many checkout staff in Lidl are in the same age cohort.

Which would you prefer... a GP over the phone or no GP at all ?

wakka12 · 22-04-2020 12:39PM

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Low population density?

Belgium on the otherhand is a very dense country.

Yeh but the population density of a country overall is not necessarily a good indication of how the virus will spread. Urbanisation is a better metric. If a country is large with a lot of wilderness but most people live in a number of large pretty dense cities for example Australia Canaada and Sweden the virus will still spread pretty easily throughout the population despite the country on paper looking like it has low population density

threeball · 22-04-2020 12:40PM

DOCARCH wrote: »

But we can't, so we are not!

What you have said, basically, if we don't count all the people that die, then we're doing a great job!

No, hes saying there was one factor that was overlooked, that had we put better controls in place we would have an extremely low death rate. It was a bad oversight and it should have been foreseen. It was within our control to do so.

growleaves · 22-04-2020 12:41PM

DOCARCH wrote: »

But we can't, so we are not!

What you have said, basically, if we don't count all the people that die, then we're doing a great job!

But the segmentation of those dying allows us to potentially create a more flexible strategy (I would imagine).

22-04-2020 12:41PM

DOCARCH wrote: »

But we can't, so we are not!

What you have said, basically, if we don't count all the people that die, then we're doing a great job!

C’mon, you know full well that that was not what was meant. You’re trying to be inflammatory for the sake of it.

The fact is that community transmission and resulting deaths, as opposed to transmission and deaths in closed environments like nursing homes, looks to be well under control. Nursing homes are a separate issue which needs to be urgently addressed

22-04-2020 12:42PM

smelly sock wrote: »

Ye have to live a little. It's no more a risk that packaging in a supermarket etc.

Most fresh food we buy in supermarkets is handled or prepared by someone. It's all a risk. We can't be 100% safe.

growleaves · 22-04-2020 12:43PM

wakka12 wrote: »

Yeh but the population density of a country overall is not necessarily a good indication of how the virus will spread. Urbanisation is a better metric. If a country is large with a lot of wilderness but most people live in a number of large pretty dense cities for example Australia Canaada and Sweden the virus will still spread pretty easily throughout the population despite the country on paper looking like it has low population density

Yes and I think that is why the Governor of Iowa refused to lock down. Its a farm state largely - low population density and low urbanisation (far as I know, open to correction, and I'm sure they must have some cities too)

polesheep · 22-04-2020 12:44PM

DOCARCH wrote: »

But we can't, so we are not!

What you have said, basically, if we don't count all the people that die, then we're doing a great job!

No, that is not what I said. That is what you have just said.

And we can separate the nursing homes. It's late in the day, but better late than never. Statistically, we should have always been separating them. What happens in the nursing homes does not dictate how we can go about our business in the wider world and we rely on statistics to help us to decide how we do that.

Put it this way, if the nursing homes were still a mess and there was zero transmission in the wider world, should we still be on lockdown? Of course we shouldn't.

Iamabeliever · 22-04-2020 12:45PM

threeball wrote: »

They've also found a link between poor air quality and an increased deaths rates. This would explain regions like Lombardy, Holland, New York and London getting absolutely smashed and places like Sweden getting off relatively lightly considering their approach. The pollution left peoples lungs vulnerable to worse infections.

That's a good story

DevilsHaircut · 22-04-2020 12:45PM

HIQA's 'rapid health technology assessment of alternative diagnostic testing for coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)' (inc. antibody tests, rapid PCR, etc.)

https://www.hiqa.ie/sites/default/files/2020-04/Rapid_HTA_COVID-19_tests.pdf

polesheep · 22-04-2020 12:46PM

Rob A. Bank wrote: »

Cheap shot...

The average age of GPs in Ireland was 59 in 2019, which puts them in the danger zone for this virus.

I imagine not many checkout staff in Lidl are in the same age cohort.

Which would you prefer... a GP over the phone or no GP at all ?

No reason why the younger GPs in the practice can't see patients. The reason it's hard to see a GP in Ireland is that too many of the newer ones want to work part-time.

Gretas Gonna Get Ya! · 22-04-2020 12:51PM

yourdeadwright wrote: »

Just me or are we currently doing quite well,
Numbers seem to be no where near what people where thinking
Also we seem to be over the worst of it ,

We really only in this since the start of march and its looking like by the end of June number will be very very little,

If you just ignore the huge amount of deaths we're suffering... yeah we're doing great! :rolleyes:

It's 44 days since we registered our first death from this virus.

We are currently averaging about 16.5 deaths per day right now...

If you go back roughly 3 weeks ago to the end of last month, we were averaging about 3.3 deaths per day.

So no, we're not doing that well tbh... we're losing a huge amount of people to this virus considering our tiny population. And it's actually quite shocking how so many people seem to have become desensitized to these deaths occuring every single day now!

Xertz · 22-04-2020 12:52PM

silverharp wrote: »

I was curious about that stat

Dunlin pop density 4588 per km

https://worldpopulationreview.com/world-cities/dublin-population/

Connecticut 285 per km

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Connecticut

That’s not a reasonable comparison as Connecticut contains a number of cities. You’re looking at the urban Dublin density vs the whole state or Connecticut. It would be reasonable to compare it to Leinster.

polesheep · 22-04-2020 12:55PM

Gretas Gonna Get Ya! wrote: »

If you just ignore the huge amount of deaths we're suffering... yeah we're doing great! :rolleyes:

It's 44 days since we registered our first death from this virus.

We are currently averaging about 16.5 deaths per day right now...

If you go back roughly 3 weeks ago to the end of last month, we were averaging about 3.3 deaths per day.

So no, we're not doing that well tbh... we're losing a huge amount of people to this virus considering our tiny population. And it's actually quite shocking how so many people seem to have become desensitized to these deaths occuring every single day now!

I don't know of anyone who has become desensitised to deaths. In fact, I am hearing more and more anger at how we allowed so many deaths to occur in our elderly population when we could have taken steps to protect them.

22-04-2020 12:58PM

Arghus wrote: »

Miriam's line of questioning is consistently dumb.

"Can you tell me when exactly you are going to do certain things in this totally unprecedented and constantly evolving situation?"

She's brutal. I normally don't have much exposure to her but watched the late late show when she was filling in. Her line of questioning and the style of questions she asks is like somebody talking to a mentally challenged 7 year old.

"Some people are out having parties while this is going on, do you think this is a bad idea?"
"Obviously we're in uncharted waters here but can you give an idea of when the restrictions might be lifted a little bit?"

Watching her spoonfeed Micheál O'Muirchaertaigh his own words back to him was cringe inducing, she is literally the worst interviewer I've ever seen on TV.

tobefrank321 · 22-04-2020 12:59PM

wakka12 wrote: »

Yeh but the population density of a country overall is not necessarily a good indication of how the virus will spread. Urbanisation is a better metric. If a country is large with a lot of wilderness but most people live in a number of large pretty dense cities for example Australia Canaada and Sweden the virus will still spread pretty easily throughout the population despite the country on paper looking like it has low population density

I will look up the stats in a while.

I'd imagine Stockholm and Sweden's cities are much less dense than for example NYC, Wuhan and London.

Realistically, Sweden should be off the charts because their lockdown is very limited, although I believe they are protecting their elderly and nursing homes. The Swedish approach is an experiment with lessons for those thinking about lifting restrictions. Their death rate is high, but no higher than some countries that have been in almost full lockdown for over a month.

Covid19 Part XVI- 21,983 in ROI (1,339 deaths) 3,881 in NI (404 deaths)(05/05)Read OP

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