Covid19 Part XVI- 21,983 in ROI (1,339 deaths) 3,881 in NI (404 deaths)(05/05)Read OP

Gynoid · 21-04-2020 02:14PM

Obvious Desperate Breakfasts wrote: »

Asthma medication is allowing by sporting bodies for anyone who has asthma and some of that medication has effects beneficial to athletes.

Dagnabbit! Lockdown mystery ruined!

Hrududu · 21-04-2020 02:17PM

Obvious Desperate Breakfasts wrote: »

Personally, I’m suspicious of how many athletes claim to be asthmatic. Kinda like how I thought it was curious that many ‘80s sprinters had teeth braces and a lot of other athletes seem to come down with glandular fever that takes them out of competition for a while. My cynic radar is mildly emitting a signal at all of those things.

Whatever about the asthma. But what was the deal with sprinters wearing braces?

circadian · 21-04-2020 02:18PM

Nermal wrote: »

Not much of a marcher myself. But free assembly being curtailed is a worry no matter what side of the political spectrum you're on:
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/former-debenhams-workers-protesting-in-dublin-told-to-end-protest-by-garda%C3%AD-1.4234117

How long has this been going on for now? Well over a month? Are people honestly having a hard time understanding that the restrictions are there to ensure our health system has the capacity to deal with its usual workload AND this? It's not some permanent removal of freedoms.

Christ.

21-04-2020 02:22PM

Drumpot wrote: »

Why is it a worry? These are temporary restrictions for everybody To protect our healthcare system and buy us time to figure out how to manage it.

I think this sort of mindset needs to change. This is a crisis, not a time for over reaction with regards to democracy. The virus doesn’t care about civil rights or political ideals, people really need to stop thinking in this way, we have to adapt and be flexible in thinking about it.

The lockup’s are less then ideal but they were done to prioritize slowing down the spread, not intentionally to curb people’s freedoms. Picketing is not an essential trip and it’s good that there isn’t a “sure what harm is it doing” approach from our authorities. That sends out a conflicted message and everyone starts making up their own guidelines for what is an essential trip.

This phrasing is utterly infuriating to read

Drumpot · 21-04-2020 02:25PM

tobefrank321 wrote: »

That is very interesting.

Also, it seems that positive asymptomatic rates have increased substantially since earlier outbreaks such as Wuhan, Diamond Princess, Iceland or Italy. You are seeing 60% of more asymptomatic in more recent outbreaks such as the Boston homeless shelter, NYC or the US Aircraft Carrier. This may be a sign the virus is mutating into a milder form. As ever more research is needed. It could be explained by the testing methodology also.

Id also wonder is it down to virus becoming less lethal but more contagious as well. Don’t most virus mutate this way for self preservation reasons?

tobefrank321 · 21-04-2020 02:25PM

rusty cole wrote: »

can I ask, the HSE via Holohan have said the 77 deaths occurred between April 2nd and yesterday. Ten of them died on Saturday. I feel this is being presented as though they have passed on the one day when in actual fact 77 died or are recorded as having died over 18 days, so an average death rate of 4.27 per day.

am I interpreting this correctly?

https://www.msn.com/en-ie/news/coronavirus/holohan-clarifies-delay-in-reporting-of-covid-19-deaths-as-daily-growth-rate-declines/ar-BB12XsqF?ocid=spartandhp

None of the death figures in any country are for any particular day. There's a number of reasons for a lag in reporting a death. One of them might be they are waiting on a confirmation to come back from a lab. Another is that they have reexamined how someone died and made a determination it was covid19 related - if there is an outbreak in a nursing home for example and someone died a few days before or during the outbreak but couldn't be tested, a doctor will list it as suspected death from covid 19 if symptoms are similar.

France for example I believe had one day where there was something like 1500 deaths, this included a large number from nursing homes that were notified on that day. The numbers go up and down. All you can do is look at week to week trends. Anything shorter is pointless.

Kermit.de.frog · 21-04-2020 02:29PM

Sweden records 185 new deaths.

This brings the country's deaths per million (175) above Switerzland and closer to the Netherlands.

Obvious Desperate Breakfasts · 21-04-2020 02:34PM

Hrududu wrote: »

Whatever about the asthma. But what was the deal with sprinters wearing braces?

I shall mention no athlete names as that could get this site in trouble but some ‘80s athletes were thought to use human growth hormone and that affected their teeth and jaws.

With glandular fever or mono as the Americans call it, it takes you out of competition for a while and therefore you are not tested during that time period. Or least you used not to be. I’ve read of a fair few top athletes coming down with this. And then they are back on form in no time at all.

Silent Running · 21-04-2020 02:35PM

Obvious Desperate Breakfasts wrote: »

Everyone knows a heavy smoker or two who lived until some great age. But we all probably know way more people for whom smoking was a big factor in their premature death.

Both of my parents were heavy smokers all their lives... both died in their sixties from smoking related cancers.

Obvious Desperate Breakfasts · 21-04-2020 02:36PM

Silent Running wrote: »

Both of my parents were heavy smokers all their lives... both died in their sixties from smoking related cancers.

I’m sorry to hear that. x

Princess Calla · 21-04-2020 02:37PM

Drumpot wrote: »

Agreed.

It poses an interesting question I asked my wife.

If they open schools one day a week, I said to her I won’t be interested in letting the children go back without some sort of reasonable explanation that’s not based on an ambiguous strategy that’s predicated on “well we have to try something”.

I’ve been relatively defencive of our authority’s but that’s because in crisis mistakes will be made and what’s important is what can be learned and improved on. In feb and early March our authorities were as awful as most other countries, talking through their asses and under estimating this virus when it was obvious to those who didn’t have our heads buried that it was going to be bad. I didn’t completely trust my own instincts (that were correct) but won’t be as quick to bow to conformed lack of wisdom so not to upset others.

So as such, I will be on board with strategies but not ones using my children as guinea pigs. What sort of logical information will be enough to convince me it’s relatively safe or well considered I don’t know. But if it’s not really clear and it’s just schools opening for 4 days, once a week in June, I don’t see the benefit to letting my children go in other then a dipping in the toe into the water school experiment that my children don’t need to be a part of.

Yeah I agree with you.

The kids will at best get an additional week of education. How productive those days are is anyone's guess.

The risk does not equal the award in my opinion.

If it was the start of the school year I'd be more open to it as I would feel this is our new normal.

Hopefully we'll get the virus under control over the summer months.

wakka12 · 21-04-2020 02:37PM

I wonder has Finland added nursing home deaths or something? Their deaths have gone from 97 to over 140 today

Hobgoblin11 · 21-04-2020 02:39PM

The office workers will be allowed back from working at home status before the autumn I'd say

Kermit.de.frog · 21-04-2020 02:40PM

UK reports 873 new deaths in hospitals

fly_agaric · 21-04-2020 02:43PM

Drumpot wrote: »

I think this sort of mindset needs to change.

Expect no success there. I recall Nermal priced GDP loss he was willing for Irish economy to suffer due to Covid 19 at EUR15k per life @ 20k lives potentially saved vs implementing no restrictions whatsoever & letting the virus rip.

Given his views were ignored & I think many multiples of that have already been expended by govt. or lost to the economy and we are living under very draconian strictures now for a few weeks with weeks still to go, he is not a happy bunny!

wakka12 · 21-04-2020 02:44PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

UK reports 873 new deaths in hospitals

The reporting of deaths across Europe is really odd. For the last 3 days it really seemed as though there was a very large trend downwards in deaths but deaths in Sweden,UK, Netherlands, Belgium right up to peak levels again today

BanditLuke · 21-04-2020 02:44PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Sweden records 185 new deaths.

This brings the country's deaths per million (175) above Switerzland and closer to the Netherlands.

Was always going to happen there. Pure madness of an approach

Drumpot · 21-04-2020 02:45PM

Princess Calla wrote: »

Yeah I agree with you.

The kids will at best get an additional week of education. How productive those days are is anyone's guess.

The risk does not equal the award in my opinion.

If it was the start of the school year I'd be more open to it as I would feel this is our new normal.

Hopefully we'll get the virus under control over the summer months.

Exactly, it’s not that I don’t approve of them trying things, it’s when it’s unnecessary.

The cynic in me thinks opening all schools for any period of time between June - August is less to do with what will help in general, partially to help justify exams. I hope somebody in the department of education is at least trying to come up with some alternative presuming there could be significant shutdowns over maybe a few years and how to manage it.

Secondary schools are finished by June, primary by July. Opening up for a day a week is hardly Going to help workers who rely on schools being open and children are hardly going to get much out if it. So my only conclusion is that it’s a social partially to help justify other decisions.

Most people have to make plans for weeks of summer holidays regardless of circumstances. I’d of thought it’s better to leave schools until September, even come back for new year a bit earlier in August (as there’s strong chance schools may need to close again sometime between oct-feb.

speckle · 21-04-2020 02:50PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Would love to know are there any studies into the immunology or physiology of children that has resulted in this lower impact. If so, it may offer improved treatment options

also children and most asthmatic who have their asthma under control breathe properly or have had to relearn too which possibly puts your body under less stress and has biochemical implications?

spookwoman · 21-04-2020 02:53PM

still trying to downplay
https://twitter.com/FergalBowers/status/1252596041955885061?s=20

tobefrank321 · 21-04-2020 02:53PM

Drumpot wrote: »

Id also wonder is it down to virus becoming less lethal but more contagious as well. Don’t most virus mutate this way for self preservation reasons?

Yes, this can be true.

Viruses can be very "clever" in a number of ways and will mutate and hide themselves to give the best chance of survival.

I was just reading about the Spanish Flu this morning and came across the following:

This increased severity has been attributed to the circumstances of the First World War.[104] In civilian life, natural selection favors a mild strain. Those who get very ill stay home, and those mildly ill continue with their lives, preferentially spreading the mild strain. In the trenches, natural selection was reversed. Soldiers with a mild strain stayed where they were, while the severely ill were sent on crowded trains to crowded field hospitals, spreading the deadlier virus. The second wave began, and the flu quickly spread around the world again. Consequently, during modern pandemics, health officials pay attention when the virus reaches places with social upheaval (looking for deadlier strains of the virus).[105]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu

So this virus may mutate because of lockdowns to something milder in the general population or alternatively if there is in fact a milder strain, this may gain the upper hand. But it may still remain dangerous for those in nursing homes who cannot isolate.

petes · 21-04-2020 02:58PM

spookwoman wrote: »

still trying to downplay
https://twitter.com/FergalBowers/status/1252596041955885061?s=20

Sorry, how is it downplaying exactly? They are 'probable' and not lab confirmed.

spookwoman · 21-04-2020 02:59PM

petes wrote: »

Sorry, how is it downplaying exactly? They are 'probable and not lab confirm.

Like they are trying to make excuses for the 77. Criteria hasn't changed for reporting

SharpshooterTom · 21-04-2020 03:00PM

wakka12 wrote: »

The reporting of deaths across Europe is really odd. For the last 3 days it really seemed as though there was a very large trend downwards in deaths but deaths in Sweden,UK, Netherlands, Belgium right up to peak levels again today

There appears to be an undercount of reported deaths during the weekend for some reason.

It happens in the US too Nate Silver was pointing this out as their biggest deaths are always between Tuesday-Thursday.

If it stays true to form the US will go back to 2,500 today.

splinter65 · 21-04-2020 03:00PM

spookwoman wrote: »

still trying to downplay
https://twitter.com/FergalBowers/status/1252596041955885061?s=20

I’d imagine at least 1000 people have died here so far with Covid. Wether it killed them all or not we may never know.

SharpshooterTom · 21-04-2020 03:03PM

https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/1252589032640516097

21-04-2020 03:05PM

wakka12 wrote: »

The reporting of deaths across Europe is really odd. For the last 3 days it really seemed as though there was a very large trend downwards in deaths but deaths in Sweden,UK, Netherlands, Belgium right up to peak levels again today

In general it looks like Tuesday to Friday reported numbers peak, fall off over the weekend resulting in a Monday trough. Before peaking again on Tuesday. Our spike yesterday is definitely unusual in this regards suggesting the is extra catch up in this figure past standard reporting lag

21-04-2020 03:07PM

spookwoman wrote: »

still trying to downplay
https://twitter.com/FergalBowers/status/1252596041955885061?s=20

Downplaying by stating there may be more deaths than those confirmed? The opposite I'd say, and tells me they are trying to make sure everything is counted

Obvious Desperate Breakfasts · 21-04-2020 03:08PM

spookwoman wrote: »

still trying to downplay
https://twitter.com/FergalBowers/status/1252596041955885061?s=20

How is this downplaying? It seems the opposite.

tobefrank321 · 21-04-2020 03:10PM

wakka12 wrote: »

The reporting of deaths across Europe is really odd. For the last 3 days it really seemed as though there was a very large trend downwards in deaths but deaths in Sweden,UK, Netherlands, Belgium right up to peak levels again today

There has always been a weekend factor to deaths, particularly Sunday and Monday being down. Its very noticeable in the UK where it usually ramps up again on Tuesdays. But like Ireland, these are days where deaths are notified rather than days people die. It may be that the process of notification is slower at weekends.

Covid19 Part XVI- 21,983 in ROI (1,339 deaths) 3,881 in NI (404 deaths)(05/05)Read OP

Comments