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Covid19 Part XVI- 21,983 in ROI (1,339 deaths) 3,881 in NI (404 deaths)(05/05)Read OP

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  • #992
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Christy42 wrote: »
    While there are many undiagnosed or minor underlying conditions let's be fair about this. A lot of athlete's are making the asthmathic thing up and just found an easy doctor to get a diagnosis off.

    A lot of athletes are making it up, but a lot are not.


  • #993
    splinter65
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,420 ✭✭✭splinter65


    Is that just announced there another 77 on top of the 77 announced yesterday?


  • #994
    wakka12
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,786 ✭✭✭wakka12


    77 additional probable COVID deaths added to the Irish death toll


  • #995
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    rusty cole wrote: »
    can I ask, the HSE via Holohan have said the 77 deaths occurred between April 2nd and yesterday. Ten of them died on Saturday. I feel this is being presented as though they have passed on the one day when in actual fact 77 died or are recorded as having died over 18 days, so an average death rate of 4.27 per day.

    am I interpreting this correctly?

    https://www.msn.com/en-ie/news/coronavirus/holohan-clarifies-delay-in-reporting-of-covid-19-deaths-as-daily-growth-rate-declines/ar-BB12XsqF?ocid=spartandhp

    They were reported yesterday, but died over course of the previous 19 days. And those reported day may be from Apr 3rd to 21st, and may report another few more for Saturday. Sunday, Yesterday etc


  • #996
    wakka12
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,786 ✭✭✭wakka12


    splinter65 wrote: »
    Is that just announced there another 77 on top of the 77 announced yesterday?

    It is in addition to the official death toll of 687, so yes on top of the 77 yesterday


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  • #997
    hmmm
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,203 ✭✭✭✭hmmm


    seamus wrote: »
    My gut feeling is, and has been for a few weeks now, that the relaxation of restrictions will be very clear to say that anyone in an at-risk group should continue to remain in lockdown indefinitely.

    The stats in general indicate that the risk the virus poses to anyone who is not at risk, is very small.

    This is why they think they can bring schools back relatively quickly while being more cautious with other businesses.
    I don't think they'll jump there right away, but I agree that is where we are probably heading.

    The government and public health doctors have been very clever with their strategy of gently guiding the public in a particular way, and only making something mandatory once public opinion has shifted.

    I don't think most people have really shifted to appreciating the economic impact, and that we aren't "killing grandma" by getting younger people back to work. It will also need to be guided by our hospital capacity, and our ability for medical personnel to safely manage the numbers they see.

    I suspect what will be harder is where you have families with someone in an at-risk group. How does anyone in that family go out and mix knowing they could give the virus to their relative? We may have a situation where entire families are essentially going to have to make a decision to cocoon (and we need to look after them until hopefully a vaccine is developed).


  • #998
    caveat emptor
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,134 ✭✭✭caveat emptor


    New Home wrote: »
    Usually animals are dispatched. :/ See what was done for bird flu, swine flu, myxomatosis, mad cow (ok, I know it's a different kind of pathogen), etc.



    Because that one specific hospital is a hospital specialised in dealing with infective illnesses, including Ebola and TB, for instance. Another such hospital is in Rome. They always have that sort of PPE available to them, staff have to undergo regular training on how to use them and on the procedures that have to be followed. The rest of the non-infective hospitals don't have any of that available to them.


    Sorry it is specialised in dealing with infectious diseases. It has an infectious diseases department as do our hospitals. (considering lots of diseases are infectious.)

    Here is the list of departments in English. http://www.ospedalideicolli.it/ospedale/cotugno/

    510429.png


    Here's the link to the mater's corresponding department.
    https://www.mater.ie/services/infectious-diseases/


  • #999
    Smoothrider
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23 ✭Smoothrider


    It's unusual that the lock down is being presented as a mere inconvenience as it is clearly going to have a devastating effect on people's livelihoods. In the UK they think that it will kill tens of thousands of people who are not getting the medical interventions they need.

    You'd wonder whether the measures should focus more in a more targeted fashion on nursing homes and helping the vulnerable to 'cocoon' or 'shelter in place' more effectively?

    I'm not pushing back against the current lockdown but this thing is not going away any time soon and there's no shortage of people who are running out of money and can't survive on the government payments, if they can access them.

    After all, the mortality rate for people below 60 is probably well below 1% and for 80% of those infected it will be a mild illness. If that is the case then a blanket lockdown after the first week of May may well be simply disproportionate?


  • #1000
    Drumpot
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,306 ✭✭✭✭Drumpot


    seamus wrote: »
    My gut feeling is, and has been for a few weeks now, that the relaxation of restrictions will be very clear to say that anyone in an at-risk group should continue to remain in lockdown indefinitely.

    The stats in general indicate that the risk the virus poses to anyone who is not at risk, is very small.

    This is why they think they can bring schools back relatively quickly while being more cautious with other businesses.

    People are going to have to mix, so if they can get people to mix in limited quantities and in a controlled way - like sending kids back to school - then it'll be easier to monitor the data and see what's working and what's not.

    As cold as it sounds to be describing this as an experiment on the population at large, we don't have a choice except to experiment in this limited way.
    People will die when the wrong choices are made, but all choices come with some deaths attached to them. Even "lockdown until vaccine" comes with its own avoidable fatalities.

    So without clear data to indicate the right choice, all you can do is make the a good educated guess as to which is the right choice.

    The vast, vast majority of deaths and serious cases are in groups that suffer from diseases of age. That is, being old, or having underlying conditions that build over years of living - obesity, diabetes, hypertension, COPD. These are in general diseases that take a lifetime to develop, so you don't see them in children and young adults.
    There doesn't appear to be any secret magic in childrens' blood that saves them, they're just not rotten on the inside.

    Agreed.

    It poses an interesting question I asked my wife.

    If they open schools one day a week, I said to her I won’t be interested in letting the children go back without some sort of reasonable explanation that’s not based on an ambiguous strategy that’s predicated on “well we have to try something”.

    I’ve been relatively defencive of our authority’s but that’s because in crisis mistakes will be made and what’s important is what can be learned and improved on. In feb and early March our authorities were as awful as most other countries, talking through their asses and under estimating this virus when it was obvious to those who didn’t have our heads buried that it was going to be bad. I didn’t completely trust my own instincts (that were correct) but won’t be as quick to bow to conformed lack of wisdom so not to upset others.

    So as such, I will be on board with strategies but not ones using my children as guinea pigs. What sort of logical information will be enough to convince me it’s relatively safe or well considered I don’t know. But if it’s not really clear and it’s just schools opening for 4 days, once a week in June, I don’t see the benefit to letting my children go in other then a dipping in the toe into the water school experiment that my children don’t need to be a part of.


  • #1001
    stephenjmcd
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,450 ✭✭✭✭stephenjmcd


    splinter65 wrote: »
    Is that just announced there another 77 on top of the 77 announced yesterday?

    77 probable deaths where a clinician suspects covid


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  • #1002
    leahyl
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,430 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    hmmm wrote: »

    I suspect what will be harder is where you have families with someone in an at-risk group. How does anyone in that family go out and mix knowing they could give the virus to their relative? We may have a situation where entire families are essentially going to have to make a decision to cocoon (and we need to look after them until hopefully a vaccine is developed).

    I live with my parents who are both over 70....generally in good health but still in the at risk group. This is my fear...how am I going to go back to living a "normal" life with the fear that I could bring something home to them :(


  • #1003
    smelly sock
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,820 ✭✭✭smelly sock


    leahyl wrote: »
    I live with my parents who are both over 70....generally in good health but still in the at risk group. This is my fear...how am I going to go back to living a "normal" life with the fear that I could bring something home to them :(

    Don't. Look after your parents and ensure they are safe. Stay isolating.

    But don't expect everyone else to do the same.


  • #1004
    New Home
    Moderators, Arts Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 78,272 Mod ✭✭✭✭New Home


    caveat emptor wrote: »
    It's not just specialised in dealing with infectious diseases. It has an infectious diseases department as do our hospitals. (considering lots of diseases are infectious.) Why write this? Making out that it's some specialty to have an infectious disease department? Don't get it.

    Here is the list of departments in English. http://www.ospedalideicolli.it/ospedale/cotugno/

    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/attachment.php?attachmentid=510429&stc=1&d=1587470735

    Here's the link to the mater's corresponding department.
    https://www.mater.ie/services/infectious-diseases/


    Not quite - "Ospedali dei Colli" is a group of hospitals of which Cotugno Hospital is part. Cotugno Hospital was created in 1884 specifically to deal with infectious diseases.

    https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fit.wikipedia.org%2Fwiki%2FOspedale_Cotugno

    I agree that there are infective diseases wards in large hospitals elsewhere, too, though.


  • #1005
    caveat emptor
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,134 ✭✭✭caveat emptor


    Is a specialist hospital. The A&E department infectious (pronto soccorso) in the start of the shot of this video.

    Here's info from the nypost article. The fact is the level of PPE is greater. Not unlike that in China,

    Question is: "Why can't we do this? especially considering over 4000 health care workers have been infected."

    Unacceptable answers include:
    • they'll get infected anyway
    • it requires training
    • we know better.
    • acceptable level of HCW falling ill here.

    https://nypost.com/2020/04/01/how-an-italian-hospital-protects-its-medical-workers-from-coronavirus/




  • #1006
    seamus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 68,190 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    caveat emptor wrote: »
    The answer however is better process. How can a hospital in Naples (one of most deprived cities in Europe) have zero HCW infected? Have a look and spot the difference. There is a hospital in South Wales where 50% of workers in A&E infected. Probably weren't taking it seriously enough.
    That's probably unfair. The hospital in Naples is a specialist facility dealing in highly infectious disease.
    The hospital was built with stringent anti-infection measures in place, staff trained in the procedures and experienced them every single day they went to work.

    Your standard hospital isn't equipped in this way and could never have been equipped in this way in a short period of time. The procedures the staff can adhere to are limited to the equipment and facilities they have.
    splinter65 wrote: »
    Is that just announced there another 77 on top of the 77 announced yesterday?
    These are 77 "probable" cases, where a doctor has diagnosed Covid before or after death, but it hasn't been confirmed by a lab.

    We should expect at least 1,000 deaths by the end of the month, and tbh we should be glad it's not twice that. We're at least making a decent attempt to report all covid deaths, where in the UK they're still underreporting their deaths and they're multiples ahead of us.
    hmmm wrote: »
    I suspect what will be harder is where you have families with someone in an at-risk group. How does anyone in that family go out and mix knowing they could give the virus to their relative? We may have a situation where entire families are essentially going to have to make a decision to cocoon (and we need to look after them until hopefully a vaccine is developed).
    Yep. There are a whole pile of infrastructural problems too. Remember the "granny grant" where it was proposed to pay grandparents for minding grankids? That's a recognition of the enormous number of grandparents minding children.
    People won't be able to go back to work without this support.

    I wonder if employers will be legally mandated to allow people to work from home where requested (and possible)?


  • #1007
    New Home
    Moderators, Arts Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 78,272 Mod ✭✭✭✭New Home


    caveat emptor wrote: »
    Not a specialist hospital. The A&E department (pronto soccorso) in the start of the shot of this video.

    Here's info from the nypost article. The fact is the level of PPE is greater. Not unlike that in China,

    Question is: "Why can't we do this? especially considering over 4000 health care workers have been infected."

    Unacceptable answers include:
    • they'll get infected anyway
    • it requires training
    • we know better.
    • acceptable level of HCW falling ill here.

    https://nypost.com/2020/04/01/how-an-italian-hospital-protects-its-medical-workers-from-coronavirus/
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RsJJtI9bwwo

    Infective A&E, it says so above the door.

    BTW, I'm not having a go at you, we're on the same page.


  • #1008
    caveat emptor
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,134 ✭✭✭caveat emptor


    New Home wrote: »
    Infective A&E, it says so above the door.

    Sorry I didn't see it. You are right. Why don't we do something similar that clearly works.

    https://www.mater.ie/services/infectious-diseases/
    510432.png


  • #1009
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    caveat emptor wrote: »
    Not a specialist hospital. The A&E department (pronto soccorso) in the start of the shot of this video.

    Here's info from the nypost article. The fact is the level of PPE is greater. Not unlike that in China,

    Question is: "Why can't we do this? especially considering over 4000 health care workers have been infected."

    Unacceptable answers include:
    • they'll get infected anyway
    • it requires training
    • we know better.
    • acceptable level of HCW falling ill here.

    https://nypost.com/2020/04/01/how-an-italian-hospital-protects-its-medical-workers-from-coronavirus/



    Presenting it as an Italian hospital gives the impression that this location has been dealing with the same workload as Milan, Bergamo etc. Campania has a population just over 3 million and had just over 4,000 cases and 300 deaths. The scale of the problem being dealt with in Naples is an order of Magnitude less than that in northern Italy. While the video is impressive, how they would have coped had they been faced with the overwhelming situation elsewhere.


  • #1010
    Ficheall
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,038 ✭✭✭Ficheall


    At the moment, at risk-ish (oldish or underlying conditionish) people can go to the shop etc and exercise precautions, and be reasonably safe because everyone else is also exercising precautions. When the restrictions are lifted, many people will exercise fewer precautions, and the at risk-ish will find things a lot more difficult..


  • #1011
    caveat emptor
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,134 ✭✭✭caveat emptor


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Presenting it as an Italian hospital gives the impression that this location has been dealing with the same workload as Milan, Bergamo etc. Campania has a population just over 3 million and had just over 4,000 cases and 300 deaths. The scale of the problem being dealt with in Naples is an order of Magnitude less than that in northern Italy. While the video is impressive, how they would have coped had they been faced with the overwhelming situation elsewhere.

    Video dates from start of April. I'm not making comparison with Northern Italy. The video makes reference of the fact that you can't deal with that tsunami in the same way.

    I am making comparison with Ireland. Both in the time we had to prepare and with the protocols we currently use. Are they enough? Given 4000+ HCW infected I would probably say no but then what do I know.


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  • #1012
    Nermal
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,836 ✭✭✭Nermal


    fly_agaric wrote: »
    I wonder are you going to do your bit as you see it, put your money where your keyboard has been for the last few weeks of this, fight for the economy and freedom + organise one of those wonderful Trump-type ones here? Somehow I doubt it...at least I hope you won't!! :pac::o

    Not much of a marcher myself. But free assembly being curtailed is a worry no matter what side of the political spectrum you're on:
    https://www.irishtimes.com/business/former-debenhams-workers-protesting-in-dublin-told-to-end-protest-by-garda%C3%AD-1.4234117


  • #1013
    Drumpot
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,306 ✭✭✭✭Drumpot


    Nermal wrote: »
    Not much of a marcher myself. But free assembly being curtailed is a worry no matter what side of the political spectrum you're on:
    https://www.irishtimes.com/business/former-debenhams-workers-protesting-in-dublin-told-to-end-protest-by-garda%C3%AD-1.4234117

    Why is it a worry? These are temporary restrictions for everybody To protect our healthcare system and buy us time to figure out how to manage it.

    I think this sort of mindset needs to change. This is a crisis, not a time for over reaction with regards to democracy. The virus doesn’t care about civil rights or political ideals, people really need to stop thinking in this way, we have to adapt and be flexible in thinking about it.

    The lockup’s are less then ideal but they were done to prioritize slowing down the spread, not intentionally to curb people’s freedoms. Picketing is not an essential trip and it’s good that there isn’t a “sure what harm is it doing” approach from our authorities. That sends out a conflicted message and everyone starts making up their own guidelines for what is an essential trip.


  • #1014
    Obvious Desperate Breakfasts
    Closed Accounts Posts: 8,474 ✭✭✭Obvious Desperate Breakfasts


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Loads of world class athletes are asthmatics, load of people who are relatively fit have diagnosed or undiagnosed hypertension and/or cardiovascular issues in their 40's and 50's, lots of auto-immune conditions out there that most can live a normal healthy, active life with but leave you vulnerable to Covid-19.

    Personally, I’m suspicious of how many athletes claim to be asthmatic. Kinda like how I thought it was curious that many ‘80s sprinters had teeth braces and a lot of other athletes seem to come down with glandular fever that takes them out of competition for a while. My cynic radar is mildly emitting a signal at all of those things.


  • #1015
    wadacrack
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,172 ✭✭✭wadacrack


    https://twitter.com/michaelmina_lab/status/1252443749143252994


  • #1016
    Obvious Desperate Breakfasts
    Closed Accounts Posts: 8,474 ✭✭✭Obvious Desperate Breakfasts


    Quantum Erasure wrote: »
    Cyclists especially

    LOL, yes. :D


  • #1017
    Gynoid
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,524 ✭✭✭Gynoid


    I am totally out of the loop on this cyclist asthma joke.
    DON'T explain it to me! A bit of mystery helps pass the time during the lock in.


  • #1018
    Obvious Desperate Breakfasts
    Closed Accounts Posts: 8,474 ✭✭✭Obvious Desperate Breakfasts


    Roger_007 wrote: »
    I had a gran-aunt who smoked 20 a day since she was in her early twenties, or so she claimed. She never married and worked until she was 70. She was never in hospital and never had anything worse than an occasional cold. She claimed that ‘the fags‘ as she called them were the only luxury she had in life and no way could any of us persuade her to quit. She never drank a drop of alcohol.
    She died suddenly a month short of her 100th birthday.
    We were in no doubt that it was ‘the fags’ that killed her.:eek:

    Everyone knows a heavy smoker or two who lived until some great age. But we all probably know way more people for whom smoking was a big factor in their premature death.


  • #1019
    eagle eye
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,593 ✭✭✭✭eagle eye


    seamus wrote:
    The stats in general indicate that the risk the virus poses to anyone who is not at risk, is very small.
    But they still carry the infection with them wherever they go.
    seamus wrote:
    This is why they think they can bring schools back relatively quickly while being more cautious with other businesses.
    Yes, bring the schools back and the kids bring the virus home to high risk parents and grandparents. You thought that one out well.


  • #1020
    Obvious Desperate Breakfasts
    Closed Accounts Posts: 8,474 ✭✭✭Obvious Desperate Breakfasts


    Gynoid wrote: »
    I am totally out of the loop on this cyclist asthma joke.
    DON'T explain it to me! A bit of mystery helps pass the time during the lock in.

    Asthma medication is allowed by sporting bodies for anyone who has asthma and some of that medication has effects beneficial to athletes.


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  • #1021
    tobefrank321
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,527 ✭✭✭tobefrank321


    caveat emptor wrote: »
    Not sure about majority. But a sizeable fraction yes.

    https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1252356183077208082?s=20

    That is very interesting.

    Also, it seems that positive asymptomatic rates have increased substantially since earlier outbreaks such as Wuhan, Diamond Princess, Iceland or Italy. You are seeing 60% or more asymptomatic in more recent outbreaks such as the Boston homeless shelter, NYC or the US Aircraft Carrier. This may be a sign the virus is mutating into a milder form. As ever more research is needed. It could be explained by the testing methodology also.


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