Covid19 Part XVI- 21,983 in ROI (1,339 deaths) 3,881 in NI (404 deaths)(05/05)Read OP

caveat emptor · 21-04-2020 11:54AM

Yeah but 27% don't know how they got it. That's a big chunk. It's plausible some of the 4000+ people got it "out and about". Not withstanding data collection issues.

wakka12 wrote: »

I doubt it ,at least some of the people visiting the supermarket and the staff will fall ill in large numbers if that were the case and some contact tracing/asking patients there whereabouts would very quickly uncover the source if it was such an obvious one

caveat emptor wrote: »

Data is lacking but you can read through the lines a bit. The fact 24 bus drivers in London have died tells me there are work place hazards. (they've always had a protective screen) Hence why I think it's near useless in the supermarket.

As of know the best we can say is we don't know. Looking at the latest figures though there is a significant proportion where the transmission is "unknown"

27% of transmission is "unknown". That's 4000+ people.

walshb · 21-04-2020 11:55AM

Not sure about anyone else, but the past few days there really does seem to be a general public relaxation of the restrictions....Maybe it's the good weather, but I am seeing things as if there was no issue at certain times.....

Anyone else getting this vibe?

wakka12 · 21-04-2020 11:56AM

Turkey has overtaken Iran and China in numbers of cases in the last day. Turkey approaching 100,000 cases now, had just 900 four weeks ago.

13.5% of tests are coming back positive there, has really ramped up testing in the last few days

seamus · 21-04-2020 11:58AM

caveat emptor wrote: »

Dr Tony came out and said that HCW were not getting infected in work. Where is this metric being recorded. Lumping them all under "community" for albeit a valid public health reason fails to acknowledge whether the protective measures are adequate.

I personally don't think they are. As our cases grow so to does the number of HCW who get infected. This has been a constant. 1:3 throughout.

For every 4 people infected 1 is a HCW.

Totally anecdotal, but a family member who works in a residential care setting has observed that it's mostly the workers spreading infection. They have patients infected where the only visible chain between the infections, is workers themselves.

This would also make sense in a hospital setting where workers may spend all day wearing PPE while interacting with patients, but may let their guard down when interacting with colleagues, taking their breaks, sharing paperwork, boxes, pens, etc.

That's not to attack HCW or accuse them of being complacent. This is probably all known and "acceptable" in terms of the public health response; i.e. that it is impossible to respond to this emergency without exposing healthcare workers to infection.
And that speaks to why isolation and distancing is so important - for every 3 of us that catch this thing, we condemn one HCW to catching it too.

This would be a reasonable explanation for why it's being said that HCW are not catching it "at work". That is, they are not being infected by patients, but by interaction with infected colleagues. You could argue that's political language, potaytoes/potahtoes, but you can also see why it would be important to avoid making healthcare workers afraid of their patients; and patients afraid of healthcare workers.

seamus · 21-04-2020 12:02PM

walshb wrote: »

Not sure about anyone else, but the past few days there really does seem to be a general public relaxation of the restrictions....Maybe it's the good weather, but I am seeing things as if there was no issue at certain times.....

Anyone else getting this vibe?

Yeah, saw it myself yesterday, plenty of people on Twitter spotting it too.

A lot more people out and about, a lot more standing around chatting. There seems to be less adherence to the "get out, exercise, go home" message, and more people reverting to social distancing.

I didn't see anything that particularly concerned me; people are still keeping their distance, not gathering in groups, not going mad with the shopping. But more socialising has definitely crept in.

It was always going to.

Danzy · 21-04-2020 12:02PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

There isn't an "asymptomatic" version.

For all you know there is, while it is less likely to mutate than other viruses, there are countless variations in circulation, 7 were known in Ireland in early March.

The majority of cases appear to be asymptomatic.

Some studies saying half, others saying up to 80%.

walshb · 21-04-2020 12:04PM

seamus wrote: »

Yeah, saw it myself yesterday, plenty of people on Twitter spotting it too.

A lot more people out and about, a lot more standing around chatting. There seems to be less adherence to the "get out, exercise, go home" message, and more people reverting to social distancing.

I didn't see anything that particularly concerned me; people are still keeping their distance, not gathering in groups, not going mad with the shopping. But more socialising has definitely crept in.

It was always going to.

Yes, agreed. For me I am even seeing less distancing between people, and in one shop today people eating at tables fairly close together. Was a very normal looking day feel off it...

The weather is definitely seeing more people leaving their homes...

I suppose there is justa jaded feel off it all....I know I have that feel......albeit whilst still adhering firmly.

Drumpot · 21-04-2020 12:04PM

wakka12 wrote: »

Turkey has overtaken Iran and China in numbers of cases in the last day. Turkey has almost 100,000 cases now, had just 900 four weeks ago.

13.5% of tests are coming back positive there, has really ramped up testing in the last few days

Part of the Frustration with official numbers from all countries is criteria for testing and recording of data , including deaths. It’s making it quite hard to decipher what countries are doing well comparatively.

Are Ireland “more honest” or thorough with our reporting, seems a bit of a simplistic suggestion but okhams razor might suggest this is the reason.

On a side note, does anybody know why Portugal seems to of been able to protest itself from Spain? Most of mainland Europe has been savaged!

wakka12 · 21-04-2020 12:06PM

Danzy wrote: »

For all you know there is, while it is less likely to mutate than other viruses, there are countless variations in circulation, 7 were known in Ireland in early March.

The majority of cases appear to be asymptomatic.

Some studies saying half, others saying up to 80%.

The variable is the individual human's ability to respond to the virus which may present as asymptomatic. Not the virus itself, it has been shown to be a relatively slowly mutating virus and with no major differences in transmission rates or mortality rates throughout the world

wakka12 · 21-04-2020 12:06PM

Danzy wrote: »

For all you know there is, while it is less likely to mutate than other viruses, there are countless variations in circulation, 7 were known in Ireland in early March.

The majority of cases appear to be asymptomatic.

Some studies saying half, others saying up to 80%.

The variable is the individual human's ability to respond to the virus which may present as asymptomatic. Not the virus itself, it has been shown to be a relatively slowly mutating virus and with no major differences in transmission rates or mortality rates throughout the world

Roger_007 · 21-04-2020 12:08PM

walshb wrote: »

Not sure about anyone else, but the past few days there really does seem to be a general public relaxation of the restrictions....Maybe it's the good weather, but I am seeing things as if there was no issue at certain times.....

Anyone else getting this vibe?

Yes, I am noticing a change in attitude with people I talk to. I think it’s partially to do with the weather but it is also due to the perception that the nursing homes and hospitals are the source of much of the transmission. If you can avoid those places and anyone who works in them, there is much less danger of catching the bug.
I live out in the sticks and I don’t know, or know of, anyone who has tested positive for Covid. Everyone is still observing the distancing and hygiene guidelines but people seem more confident about getting out and about.

caveat emptor · 21-04-2020 12:09PM

Danzy wrote: »

For all you know there is, while it is less likely to mutate than other viruses, there are countless variations in circulation, 7 were known in Ireland in early March.

The majority of cases appear to be asymptomatic.

Some studies saying half, others saying up to 80%.

Not sure about majority. But a sizeable fraction yes.

https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1252356183077208082?s=20

Hobgoblin11 · 21-04-2020 12:10PM

Roger_007 wrote: »

Yes, I am noticing a change in attitude with people I talk to. I think it’s partially to do with the weather but it is also due to the perception that the nursing homes and hospitals are the source of much of the transmission. If you can avoid those places and anyone who works in them, there is much less danger of catching the bug.
I live out in the sticks and I don’t know, or know of, anyone who has tested positive for Covid. Everyone is still observing the distancing and hygiene guidelines but people seem more confident about getting out and about.

right now that might be true, it might not be true in the future

Gynoid · 21-04-2020 12:12PM

wakka12 wrote: »

The variable is the individual human's ability to respond to the virus which may present as asymptomatic. Not the virus itself, it has been shown to be a relatively slowly mutating virus and with no major differences in transmission rates or mortality rates throughout the world

This is a recently published study of an admittedly TINY cohort. It was done by Prof Li Lanjuan, she is the doctor who advised the authorities in China to shut down Wuhan. (Note she is 72. Out there at the forefront of research. One of the old people!)
There is some talk that parts of Europe got a particularly aggressive ''strain''.

https://www.jpost.com/health-science/coronavirus-has-mutated-into-at-least-30-different-strains-new-study-finds-625333

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20060160v1

A new study in China has found that the novel coronavirus has mutated into at least 30 different variations.
The results showed that medical officials have vastly underestimated the overall ability of the virus to mutate, in findings that different strains have affected different parts of the world, leading to potential difficulties in finding an overall cure.
The study was carried out by Professor Li Lanjuan and colleagues from Zhejiang University in Hangzhou, China and published in a non-peer reviewed paper released on website medRxiv.org on Sunday.
Li's team analyzed the strains from 11 randomly chosen coronavirus patients from Hangzhou, where there have been 1,264 reported cases, and then tested how efficiently they could infect and kill cells.
More than 30 different mutations were detected, of which 19 were previously undiscovered.
“Sars-CoV-2 has acquired mutations capable of substantially changing its pathogenicity,” Li wrote in the paper.
The team discovered that some of the mutations could lead to functional changes in the virus’ spike protein, the South China Morning Post reported. Spike protein is the protein that the coronavirus uses to attach itself to human cells.
Li 's team infected cells with COVID-19 strains carrying different mutations, of which the most aggressive strains were found to generate as much as 270 times as much viral load as the weakest strains. The aggressive strains also killed the human cells the fastest.
The results indicated "that the true diversity of the viral strains is still largely underappreciated,” Li wrote.

Christy42 · 21-04-2020 12:12PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Loads of world class athletes are asthmatics, load of people who are relatively fit have diagnosed or undiagnosed hypertension and/or cardiovascular issues in their 40's and 50's, lots of auto-immune conditions out there that most can live a normal healthy, active life with but leave you vulnerable to Covid-19.

While there are many undiagnosed or minor underlying conditions let's be fair about this. A lot of athlete's are making the asthmathic thing up and just found an easy doctor to get a diagnosis off.

blade1 · 21-04-2020 12:15PM

Hrududu · 21-04-2020 12:16PM

blade1 wrote: »

Fake: https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/2009-trump-tweet-pandemic/

Drumpot · 21-04-2020 12:17PM

seamus wrote: »

Yeah, saw it myself yesterday, plenty of people on Twitter spotting it too.

A lot more people out and about, a lot more standing around chatting. There seems to be less adherence to the "get out, exercise, go home" message, and more people reverting to social distancing.

I didn't see anything that particularly concerned me; people are still keeping their distance, not gathering in groups, not going mad with the shopping. But more socialising has definitely crept in.

It was always going to.

I feel that this could be part of the eventual solution if no vaccine is found soon. Cautious re-integration.

Think of social distancing. No sports played for years , professionally and just for fun? No restaurant or pubs, what’s the point in going if you can’t be close to friends? I can barely hear friends across a table in a half packed pub!

No plays, no concerts, no sports events, no public gatherings, no mass, no schools... The list is endless. You can’t pack 30+ children into a class and then say a cinema is a bad place for virus to spread. It’s contradictory. Now you could argue schools are necessary and cinemas are not. That’s fair but you are just as likely to be infected in a packed cinema as your child is in a class.

When it comes to alcohol you have a different dynamic. It’s incontrovertible that alcohol lowers people’s inhibitions and can make them less responsible to themselves and others. Opening up major sporting events has a different danger dynamic if alcohol is allowed to be sold in or around a stadium versus a complete alcohol ban. Surely they will have to be more responsible for things like this, although I would fear a certain industry will push their own agenda..

caveat emptor · 21-04-2020 12:17PM

seamus wrote: »

Totally anecdotal, but a family member who works in a residential care setting has observed that it's mostly the workers spreading infection. They have patients infected where the only visible chain between the infections, is workers themselves.

This would also make sense in a hospital setting where workers may spend all day wearing PPE while interacting with patients, but may let their guard down when interacting with colleagues, taking their breaks, sharing paperwork, boxes, pens, etc.

That's not to attack HCW or accuse them of being complacent. This is probably all known and "acceptable" in terms of the public health response; i.e. that it is impossible to respond to this emergency without exposing healthcare workers to infection.
And that speaks to why isolation and distancing is so important - for every 3 of us that catch this thing, we condemn one HCW to catching it too.

This would be a reasonable explanation for why it's being said that HCW are not catching it "at work". That is, they are not being infected by patients, but by interaction with infected colleagues. You could argue that's political language, potaytoes/potahtoes, but you can also see why it would be important to avoid making healthcare workers afraid of their patients; and patients afraid of healthcare workers.

Maybe so. I guess it depends on your definition of acceptable.

The truth is you can't say where they got infected. Insisting they let their guard down is insidious. Although it is indeed probable. Human error is always significant in high risk processes. You are underestimating human self preservation. Deadly pathogen focuses most minds all things remaining equal.

The answer however is better process. How can a hospital in Naples (one of most deprived cities in Europe) have zero HCW infected? Have a look and spot the difference. There is a hospital in South Wales where 50% of workers in A&E infected. Probably weren't taking it seriously enough.

https://twitter.com/JJParke83477408/status/1245059606633644033?s=20

jibber5000 · 21-04-2020 12:20PM

Nonoperational wrote: »

Would agree with this anecdotally. Otherwise healthy asthmatics don’t appear to be at any greatly increased risk from what we are seeing.

It’s also really astonishing that children are not, for the most part, getting any significant illness from COVID.

Again anecdotally but Toc does seem very promising.

I think there's no question it works. Anyone with a high IL 6 count should have it reduced and greatly help a cohort of patients.

A few issues with Toc.

It is useless in stopping people getting to the point where they need it and by that stage lung damage could be severe.

21-04-2020 12:23PM

can I ask, the HSE via Holohan have said the 77 deaths occurred between April 2nd and yesterday. Ten of them died on Saturday. I feel this is being presented as though they have passed on the one day when in actual fact 77 died or are recorded as having died over 18 days, so an average death rate of 4.27 per day.

am I interpreting this correctly?

https://www.msn.com/en-ie/news/coronavirus/holohan-clarifies-delay-in-reporting-of-covid-19-deaths-as-daily-growth-rate-declines/ar-BB12XsqF?ocid=spartandhp

hmmm · 21-04-2020 12:24PM

Roger_007 wrote: »

Yes, I am noticing a change in attitude with people I talk to. I think it’s partially to do with the weather but it is also due to the perception that the nursing homes and hospitals are the source of much of the transmission. If you can avoid those places and anyone who works in them, there is much less danger of catching the bug.
I live out in the sticks and I don’t know, or know of, anyone who has tested positive for Covid. Everyone is still observing the distancing and hygiene guidelines but people seem more confident about getting out and about.

It's going to be natural I think, and it's going to be part of the exit strategy as we know more about how this virus spreads.

It's very clear that it loves crowded indoor places with people in close contact and talking/singing. Choir practice isn't happening for a long time.

It's very unclear (in what I've read and I'm not an expert) whether there is much evidence of transmission outdoors.

It's very clear it is terrible for older people. But not younger people.

With all these things, and as the public health people become more confident about knowing where spread happens, they will decide where restrictions can be lifted. The public will be a bit ahead of those decisions, and I think people are being largely sensible. The public health advice needs to be fast at this point or people will start ignoring it - tell people where there is certainty and uncertainty, and the generic "don't get complacent" isn't going to fly for much longer.

caveat emptor · 21-04-2020 12:30PM

speckle wrote: »

I am probably wrong but does it look like an autoimmune disease on a high, rampage mode in the worst effected people?
(I was going to say an 'autoimmune disease on steroids' but dont want the common phrase mixed up with the medicine.)

Here's a paper on how some of the autoimmune characteristics. Specifically how it can infect T Cells just like another virus that shall not be named.

SARS-CoV-2 infects T lymphocytes through its spike protein-mediated membrane fusion

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41423-020-0424-9

fly_agaric · 21-04-2020 12:33PM

Nermal wrote: »

https://www.independent.ie/world-news/coronavirus/protests-worldwide-demand-an-end-to-stay-at-home-orders-39144011.html

"Protests have also erupted in Brazil, Kenya, Paris, parts of Russia, India, Lebanon and Iraq."

Supression is not compatible with democracy. There were protests in China, for god's sake.

I wonder are you going to do your bit as you see it, put your money where your keyboard has been for the last few weeks of this, fight for the economy and freedom + organise one of those wonderful Trump-type ones here? Somehow I doubt it...at least I hope you won't!! :pac::o

crossman47 · 21-04-2020 12:35PM

rusty cole wrote: »

can I ask, the HSE via Holohan have said the 77 deaths occurred between April 2nd and yesterday. Ten of them died on Saturday. I feel this is being presented as though they have passed on the one day when in actual fact 77 died or are recorded as having died over 18 days, so an average death rate of 4.27 per day.

am I interpreting this correctly?

https://www.msn.com/en-ie/news/coronavirus/holohan-clarifies-delay-in-reporting-of-covid-19-deaths-as-daily-growth-rate-declines/ar-BB12XsqF?ocid=spartandhp

You're partially right. The 77 were spread over a number of days. However, the total recorded on the 19th, the 18th, etc will also have been spread over the previous days and the numbers recorded today, tomorrow, etc will go back over a number of days.

is_that_so · 21-04-2020 12:39PM

crossman47 wrote: »

You're partially right. The 77 were spread over a number of days. However, the total recorded on the 19th, the 18th, etc will also have been spread over the previous days and the numbers recorded today, tomorrow, etc will go back over a number of days.

That 77 also had deaths going back to the beginning of the month. It can really take quite a while. Nursing homes census may have some interesting data.

21-04-2020 12:47PM

Nonoperational wrote: »

Would agree with this anecdotally. Otherwise healthy asthmatics don’t appear to be at any greatly increased risk from what we are seeing.

It’s also really astonishing that children are not, for the most part, getting any significant illness from COVID.

Again anecdotally but Toc does seem very promising.

Would love to know are there any studies into the immunology or physiology of children that has resulted in this lower impact. If so, it may offer improved treatment options

New Home · 21-04-2020 12:48PM

owlbethere wrote: »

Before this pandemic, has vets seen SARS like illness in animals like in livestock, pets, zoo animals?

If yes, does the veterinary world have a vaccine that could possibly be built on for human use?

Usually animals are dispatched.

See what was done for bird flu, swine flu, myxomatosis, mad cow (ok, I know it's a different kind of pathogen), etc.

caveat emptor wrote: »

How can a hospital in Naples (one of most deprived cities in Europe) have zero HCW infected?

Because that one specific hospital is a hospital specialised in dealing with infective illnesses, including Ebola and TB, for instance. Another such hospital is in Rome. They always have that sort of PPE available to them, staff have to undergo regular training on how to use them and on the procedures that have to be followed. The rest of the non-infective hospitals don't have any of that available to them.

21-04-2020 12:54PM

seamus wrote: »

Totally anecdotal, but a family member who works in a residential care setting has observed that it's mostly the workers spreading infection. They have patients infected where the only visible chain between the infections, is workers themselves.

This would also make sense in a hospital setting where workers may spend all day wearing PPE while interacting with patients, but may let their guard down when interacting with colleagues, taking their breaks, sharing paperwork, boxes, pens, etc.

That's not to attack HCW or accuse them of being complacent. This is probably all known and "acceptable" in terms of the public health response; i.e. that it is impossible to respond to this emergency without exposing healthcare workers to infection.
And that speaks to why isolation and distancing is so important - for every 3 of us that catch this thing, we condemn one HCW to catching it too.

This would be a reasonable explanation for why it's being said that HCW are not catching it "at work". That is, they are not being infected by patients, but by interaction with infected colleagues. You could argue that's political language, potaytoes/potahtoes, but you can also see why it would be important to avoid making healthcare workers afraid of their patients; and patients afraid of healthcare workers.

Anecdotal also, but an extended family member had community nurse visit a couple of days after newborn baby arrived. They had full gown and face mask on when they pulled up and subsequently drove away without removing. May as well have had no PPE. Training in proper use of PPE is as important, if not more important than the PPE itself, as users will tend to be less conscious of risks when wearing PPE

seamus · 21-04-2020 12:59PM

Drumpot wrote: »

I feel that this could be part of the eventual solution if no vaccine is found soon. Cautious re-integration.

Think of social distancing. No sports played for years , professionally and just for fun? No restaurant or pubs, what’s the point in going if you can’t be close to friends? I can barely hear friends across a table in a half packed pub!

No plays, no concerts, no sports events, no public gatherings, no mass, no schools... The list is endless. You can’t pack 30+ children into a class and then say a cinema is a bad place for virus to spread. It’s contradictory. Now you could argue schools are necessary and cinemas are not. That’s fair but you are just as likely to be infected in a packed cinema as your child is in a class.

My gut feeling is, and has been for a few weeks now, that the relaxation of restrictions will be very clear to say that anyone in an at-risk group should continue to remain in lockdown indefinitely.

The stats in general indicate that the risk the virus poses to anyone who is not at risk, is very small.

This is why they think they can bring schools back relatively quickly while being more cautious with other businesses.

People are going to have to mix, so if they can get people to mix in limited quantities and in a controlled way - like sending kids back to school - then it'll be easier to monitor the data and see what's working and what's not.

As cold as it sounds to be describing this as an experiment on the population at large, we don't have a choice except to experiment in this limited way.
People will die when the wrong choices are made, but all choices come with some deaths attached to them. Even "lockdown until vaccine" comes with its own avoidable fatalities.

So without clear data to indicate the right choice, all you can do is make the a good educated guess as to which is the right choice.

Deleted User wrote: »

Would love to know are there any studies into the immunology or physiology of children that has resulted in this lower impact. If so, it may offer improved treatment options

The vast, vast majority of deaths and serious cases are in groups that suffer from diseases of age. That is, being old, or having underlying conditions that build over years of living - obesity, diabetes, hypertension, COPD. These are in general diseases that take a lifetime to develop, so you don't see them in children and young adults.
There doesn't appear to be any secret magic in childrens' blood that saves them, they're just not rotten on the inside.

Covid19 Part XVI- 21,983 in ROI (1,339 deaths) 3,881 in NI (404 deaths)(05/05)Read OP

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