Covid19 Part XVI- 21,983 in ROI (1,339 deaths) 3,881 in NI (404 deaths)(05/05)Read OP

timsey tiger · 21-04-2020 09:14AM

Given the current lack of clarity over the current death count, reporting hospital deaths only ( which several countries have been criticized for )doesn't seem to be such a bad idea to me anymore.

timsey tiger · 21-04-2020 09:16AM

Onesea wrote: »

Looking at he diagram above.Seeing as this virus is potentially much worse than all other corona virus..why was it labelled as a corona virus in the first place?
We dont fully understand the virus but it seems to kill old and already sick people-that sounds like all other illnesses out there.

You got to define what you mean by "worse" here. I'd much rather to come down wih this one than than the one that caused MER, which killed something like 30% of people who caught it.

21-04-2020 09:22AM

Onesea wrote: »

Looking at he diagram above.Seeing as this virus is potentially much worse than all other corona virus..why was it labelled as a corona virus in the first place?
We dont fully understand the virus but it seems to kill old and already sick people-that sounds like all other illnesses out there.

Because it is a coronavirus. Just Like a house cat and a lion are Felines, some of the species that cause 10 to 15% of common colds and Sars-CoV-2 are coronavirus. And it's not worse that all other Coronavirus - SARS and MERS were far worse

caveat emptor · 21-04-2020 09:23AM

Upforthematch wrote: »

I'm so cynical about how figures are being presented (in general - not targeting DOH)

Downward sloping curve - therefore it's ok! :pac:

Any epidemic will show massive growth rate at the beginning - it is starting from a base of zero after all!!

When a full population is infected the growth rate is zero.

The point is - look closely at the data and how it was gathered - do your own graph then.

Well put 5% of a million is much more than 100% of 60. Luckily most people don't understand percentages and fractions.

That's why we have credit card debt.

podgeandrodge · 21-04-2020 09:26AM

Arghus wrote: »

I like Luke O' Neill and all, but he always seems a bit flaky in his advice.

Claire didn't have the mask on anywhere near properly - yeah, yeah, perfect.

No need to worry about supermarkets, staff are very careful. I work in a Supermarket. Staff are not very careful.

Are the staff all catching it so?

crossman47 · 21-04-2020 09:35AM

Roger_007 wrote: »

Probably because they reckoned that figures at the peak were too scary so they didn’t report all deaths at that time. Now that they have imposed an extension of the lockdown, they reckon the figures are not scary enough to justify what they have done, so they just add in some of the deaths they didn’t report before. Eventually they have to report all deaths but they are timing it for political reasons.

The kindest thing I can say is that is a load of rubbish. Reports come in with a delay and they have to handle that.

Wibbs · 21-04-2020 09:48AM

podgeandrodge wrote: »

Are the staff all catching it so?

It's a very good question P and one I've been asking myself. If I were in the HSE, or any health authority anywhere for that matter, I would look at your good question and test supermarket staff in existing "hot zones" of community transmission, which as a health authority I'd have the granular data to hand above what the general public knows.

This would give us results that could prove very helpful. If it were found that almost none were infected, then supermarkets would prove to not be infection hot spots. It would also suggest the infectivity of this virus in daily life(with some precautions) is pretty low in the wider community. This would speed up the reopening of our work places and society.

If it were found that quite a few were infected and asymptomatic, it would give us some idea of the risks involved there and risk reduction methods that would reduce it. EG mandatory masks for staff and customers and more sterilisation of things like baskets and trolleys and checkout counters etc. It would also give us some idea of the percentage of the infected and asymptomatic in such shared spaces. At least among retail staff(and though the age demographic tends towards younger there are all working age folks there).

Your question and the answer to it and how to discover it seem so obvious, yet I have not heard of any authority anywhere checking out such an obvious data gathering exercise.

podgeandrodge · 21-04-2020 09:50AM

Wibbs wrote: »

It's a very good question P and one I've been asking myself. If I were in the HSE, or any health authority anywhere for that matter, I would look at your good question and test supermarket staff in existing "hot zones" of community transmission, which as a health authority I'd have the granular data to hand above what the general public knows.

This would give us results that could prove very helpful. If it were found that almost none were infected, then supermarkets would prove to not be infection hot spots. It would also suggest the infectivity of this virus in daily life(with some precautions) is pretty low in the wider community. This would speed up the reopening of our work places and society.

If it were found that quite a few were infected and asymptomatic, it would give us some idea of the risks involved there and risk reduction methods that would reduce it. EG mandatory masks for staff and customers and more sterilisation of things like baskets and trolleys and checkout counters etc. It would also give us some idea of the percentage of the infected and asymptomatic in such shared spaces. At least among retail staff(and though the age demographic tends towards younger there are all working age folks there).

Your question and the answer to it and how to discover it seem so obvious, yet I have not heard of any authority anywhere checking out such an obvious data gathering exercise.

Quite true Wibbs. While you and I may not have the same current view on masks, we certainly want to get the raw data so to have an informed view!

seamus · 21-04-2020 09:54AM

Nermal wrote: »

https://www.independent.ie/world-news/coronavirus/protests-worldwide-demand-an-end-to-stay-at-home-orders-39144011.html

"Protests have also erupted in Brazil, Kenya, Paris, parts of Russia, India, Lebanon and Iraq."

Supression is not compatible with democracy. There were protests in China, for god's sake.

Remember back in February when people here in Ireland were screaming about locking down everything, asking why airports were still open, why people were still going to work?

The above is why. Because "suppression is not compatible with democracy". An effective lockdown requires popular support. You have to build the narrative. You have to explain to the population what the problem is, how dangerous it is and you have to get them to buy into it. You have to phase your restrictions in, get people used to it, make sure they don't panic or revolt.

If the population do not accept the necessity of a lockdown, they won't allow themselves to be locked down. The US is a perfect example. The president spent weeks undermining the severity of the issue, calling it a hoax, saying that restrictions were unnecessary, criticising the states that took hard choices, and when he finally did accept restrictions were necessary, he was almost immediately talking about ending them.

And their lockdown in some places have been a failure because there's no popular buy-in. People will die, health systems are overwhelmed, because when it came time to lock down, the population wouldn't accept it.

We can call other countries gob****es all we like, but we have plenty of our own. If we had jumped straight into a full lockdown, our own gob****e contingent would have made themselves very public. Instead they remain content to share stuff on facebook while staying at home.

silverharp · 21-04-2020 09:57AM

seamus wrote: »

Remember back in February when people here in Ireland were screaming about locking down everything, asking why airports were still open, why people were still going to work?

The above is why. Because "suppression is not compatible with democracy". An effective lockdown requires popular support. You have to build the narrative. You have to explain to the population what the problem is, how dangerous it is and you have to get them to buy into it. You have to phase your restrictions in, get people used to it, make sure they don't panic or revolt.

If the population do not accept the necessity of a lockdown, they won't allow themselves to be locked down. The US is a perfect example. The president spent weeks undermining the severity of the issue, calling it a hoax, saying that restrictions were unnecessary, criticising the states that took hard choices, and when he finally did accept restrictions were necessary, he was almost immediately talking about ending them.

And their lockdown in some places have been a failure because there's no popular buy-in. People will die, health systems are overwhelmed, because when it came time to lock down, the population wouldn't accept it.

We can call other countries gob****es all we like, but we have plenty of our own. If we had jumped straight into a full lockdown, our own gob****e contingent would have made themselves very public. Instead they remain content to share stuff on facebook while staying at home.

Trump didnt call it a hoax, in his own words that is fake news

caveat emptor · 21-04-2020 09:57AM

Wibbs wrote: »

It's a very good question P and one I've been asking myself. If I were in the HSE, or any health authority anywhere for that matter, I would look at your good question and test supermarket staff in existing "hot zones" of community transmission, which as a health authority I'd have the granular data to hand above what the general public knows.

This would give us results that could prove very helpful. If it were found that almost none were infected, then supermarkets would prove to not be infection hot spots. It would also suggest the infectivity of this virus in daily life(with some precautions) is pretty low in the wider community. This would speed up the reopening of our work places and society.

If it were found that quite a few were infected and asymptomatic, it would give us some idea of the risks involved there and risk reduction methods that would reduce it. EG mandatory masks for staff and customers and more sterilisation of things like baskets and trolleys and checkout counters etc. It would also give us some idea of the percentage of the infected and asymptomatic in such shared spaces. At least among retail staff(and though the age demographic tends towards younger there are all working age folks there).

Your question and the answer to it and how to discover it seem so obvious, yet I have not heard of any authority anywhere checking out such an obvious data gathering exercise.

Data is lacking but you can read through the lines a bit. The fact 24 bus drivers in London have died tells me there are work place hazards. (they've always had a protective screen) Hence why I think it's near useless in the supermarket.

As of know the best we can say is we don't know. Looking at the latest figures though there is a significant proportion where the transmission is "unknown"

27% of transmission is "unknown". That's 4000+ people.

Beasty · 21-04-2020 10:01AM

bettyoleary wrote: »

The Dr who has resigned.

Say it's not true:(

Knew everything would go pear-shaped when they appointed a woman:(

:pac:

Beasty · 21-04-2020 10:03AM

John.Icy wrote: »

There is a dedicated American/USA/Trump thread elsewhere. I am sick of reading through 10+ pages of the same posters running a commentary on Donald Trump and the American populace in this thread. Jog on over to that one thanks.

Please read the OP

Now leave the modding to the mods

John.Icy · 21-04-2020 10:04AM

https://twitter.com/CMOIreland/status/1252344273938219011

I'm sure this was addressed last night but our max deaths (going by the date they occurred) is now the 12th, the first and only day thus far with a 40+ tally. The red are incomplete so it will be another few days to a week to see the trend. Many thought the 7th was the peak but it is clear now that lag of deaths has been added that the number of deaths per day is still trending upwards to the 15th of April.

stephenjmcd · 21-04-2020 10:08AM

https://twitter.com/FergalBowers/status/1252522924881428487?s=19

seamus · 21-04-2020 10:08AM

silverharp wrote: »

Trump didnt call it a hoax, in his own words that is fake news

"Now, the Democrats are politicising the coronavirus… this is their new hoax."

Seriously if out of my entire post, the response you saw fit was to defend Donald fvcking Trump, you need to check your priorities.

Don't bother responding with "context", or whatever. The specific words used are irrelevant. The point is that Trump completely undermined any hope that there would be a strong and consistent response to the crisis across the US, by downplaying it and tell the public that the experts were all overreacting.
Just like that other scumbag Bolsonaro in Brazil.

As a result, protests and failed lockdowns.

This is why places where it's working, like Ireland, need to plan out the use and discussion of restrictions carefully and when they're necessary. Not too early, and not for too long.

rosiem · 21-04-2020 10:10AM

John.Icy wrote: »

There is a dedicated American/USA/Trump thread elsewhere. I am sick of reading through 10+ pages of the same posters running a commentary on Donald Trump and the American populace in this thread. Jog on over to that one thanks.

EDIT: I am not trying to mod to be fair Beasty. I am asking fellow psoters to relax with the Trump talk for 5 minutes in the Irish thread. Trump talk goes far beyond 10pm - 1am.

Sick of reading then jog on yourself this is the general main thread where of course Trump as well as Irish issues and many other countries will be discussed.

Gynoid · 21-04-2020 10:13AM

caveat emptor wrote: »

Data is lacking but you can read through the lines a bit. The fact 24 bus drivers in London have died tells me there are work place hazards. (they've always had a protective screen) Hence why I think it's near useless in the supermarket.

As of know the best we can say is we don't know. Looking at the latest figures though there is a significant proportion where the transmission is "unknown"

27% of transmission is "unknown". That's 4000+ people.

In a similar vein to bus drivers (well ....ish) I see 18 fire fighters in Dublin airport caught the virus, 2 ended up in ICU and one is still there. Fire fighters were drafted in to Dublin airport from Cork to provide emergency cover. For those who repeat about it being the elderly or infirm at risk of a bad dose I presume fire fighters are fairly fit people.

https://m.independent.ie/world-news/coronavirus/two-in-icu-as-airport-fire-service-hit-by-wave-of-infections-39144031.html

Hobgoblin11 · 21-04-2020 10:14AM

rosiem wrote: »

Sick of reading then jog on yourself this is the general main thread where of course Trump as well as Irish issues and many other countries will be discussed.

I see trump is halting all immigration (not just flights ) to the US due to covid 19, does this include Europe I wonder!

caveat emptor · 21-04-2020 10:14AM

caveat emptor wrote: »

Data is lacking but you can read through the lines a bit. The fact 24 bus drivers in London have died tells me there are work place hazards. (they've always had a protective screen) Hence why I think it's near useless in the supermarket.

As of know the best we can say is we don't know. Looking at the latest figures though there is a significant proportion where the transmission is "unknown"

27% of transmission is "unknown". That's 4000+ people.

Can anybody explain why 26.4% percent of our cases are health care workers and there isn't one nosocomial(in a hospital) transmission recorded? Seems strange. Are they being recorded as local / community / other?

6034073

seamus · 21-04-2020 10:16AM

IIRC when they announced the extra 3 weeks of lockdown, I believe the "unknown" was somewhere in the 50% range. In which case a reduction to 27% would be a massive success for the tracing programme.

seamus · 21-04-2020 10:21AM

caveat emptor wrote: »

Can anybody explain why 26.4% percent of our cases are health care workers and there isn't one nosocomial(in a hospital) transmission recorded? Seems strange. Are they being recorded as local / community / other?

Yes. "Nosocomial" specifically refers to the acquisition of an infection by a patient while being treated in hospital. HCW will generally be classed as community transmission, since they won't know exactly where or when they picked up the infection.

There's a good chance they're avoiding using the "hospital-acquired" classification because it might prevent people from seeking necessary treatment in hospitals.

bodhrandude · 21-04-2020 10:22AM

I tried to buy something the other day over the 30 Euro contactless method and the amount has not been raised yet, I thought we were trying to get away from handling cash, I had to input my number to make the sale, was this not supposed to be raised a few weeks ago to a 50 Euro limit.

Onesea · 21-04-2020 10:23AM

Deleted User wrote: »

Because it is a coronavirus. Just Like a house cat and a lion are Felines, some of the species that cause 10 to 15% of common colds and Sars-CoV-2 are coronavirus. And it's not worse that all other Coronavirus - SARS and MERS were far worse

Dare i ask,why wasnt the world held to house arrest during mers and sars?

gipi · 21-04-2020 10:25AM

bodhrandude wrote: »

I tried to buy something the other day over the 30 Euro contactless method and the amount has not been raised yet, I thought we were trying to get away from handling cash, I had to input my number to make the sale, was this not supposed to be raised a few weeks ago.

Not all shops raised the limit - I read that Tesco refused, because of the amount of work involved in reprogramming their terminals.

I was in Lidl last week and tapped for about 45 euro.

seamus · 21-04-2020 10:25AM

bodhrandude wrote: »

I tried to buy something the other day over the 30 Euro contactless method and the amount has not been raised yet, I thought we were trying to get away from handling cash, I had to input my number to make the sale, was this not supposed to be raised a few weeks ago.

The limit is coded at the terminal. So unless the retailer has updated their software to allow the new limit, it won't work. Tesco highlighted a massive issue they had with this change because they implemented their software in a way that didn't allow software upates to be distributed remotely. So they've to send staff to every shop and terminal to change the limit.

21-04-2020 10:25AM

bodhrandude wrote: »

I tried to buy something the other day over the 30 Euro contactless method and the amount has not been raised yet, I thought we were trying to get away from handling cash, I had to input my number to make the sale, was this not supposed to be raised a few weeks ago.

I got diesel last Thursday and it was at 50

tobefrank321 · 21-04-2020 10:25AM

John.Icy wrote: »

https://twitter.com/CMOIreland/status/1252344273938219011

I'm sure this was addressed last night but our max deaths (going by the date they occurred) is now the 12th, the first and only day thus far with a 40+ tally. The red are incomplete so it will be another few days to a week to see the trend. Many thought the 7th was the peak but it is clear now that lag of deaths has been added that the number of deaths per day is still trending upwards to the 15th of April.

The charts will always be incomplete, especially the last few days.

You can't draw conclusions based on trends for at least a week after, as new deaths are notified several days or even a week or more after the person died.

So anyone who says its great the chart is going down, doesn't know what they are talking about. You can't make that judgement for at least another week.

So ignoring the last 3 days, there's no sign the death rate is falling.

Onesea · 21-04-2020 10:27AM

Gynoid wrote: »

In a similar vein to bus drivers (well ....ish) I see 18 fire fighters in Dublin airport caught the virus, 2 ended up in ICU and one is still there. Fire fighters were drafted in to Dublin airport from Cork to provide emergency cover. For those who repeat about it being the elderly or infirm at risk of a bad dose I presume fire fighters are fairly fit people.

Being fit and healthy are not the same thing.

podgeandrodge · 21-04-2020 10:32AM

rosiem wrote: »

Sick of reading then jog on yourself this is the general main thread where of course Trump as well as Irish issues and many other countries will be discussed.

Personally I agree, Trump talk is relevant to this thread (notwithstanding there are dedicated threads).

But I feel (and this is not back seat modding, just an opinion) that the thread would be improved if people talked about what Trump is doing/not doing about Covid itself without it getting clogged up with side issues about the great man, which are not Covid related at all.

Covid19 Part XVI- 21,983 in ROI (1,339 deaths) 3,881 in NI (404 deaths)(05/05)Read OP

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