Off Topic Thread 4.0

Panda Killa · 20-04-2020 07:24PM

prawnsambo wrote: »

I'd hazard a guess that those cheerleaders don't include African-Americans. But the election will be won and lost in the swing states that got him over the line the last time. And they don't seem to be swinging that way now.

Genuinely...it won't even be close...if maybe 200,000 Americans die from Covid...perhaps... but at the moment he's streets ahead

Neil3030 · 20-04-2020 07:39PM

Panda Killa wrote: »

I will state here.. right now... Trump will walk back into the Whitehouse.
I lived and worked in Louisiana for years...they love! him there...it's the same in all the southern states... you might get 1 dissenting voice in a hundred.. literally...my Facebook is a Trump victory calvacade... already ...and what hurts is they are correct

Probably best not to predict the behaviour of the whole country from such a steadfastly Republican state.

Biden needs to win 39 electoral college votes back from Trump's tally in 2016.

He should get 20 of these back from Pennsylvania, his home state.

That leaves 19 votes. There are a total of 81 votes up for grabs across 5 states where Trump won by less than a 4% margin in 2016 - NC (15), FL (29), AZ (11), WI (10) and MI (16).

Trump would also need to hold IA (6) and OH (18), both of which are perennial swing states.

Obviously 6-7 months is an eternity in politics, and we're living in a very unique climate where just about anything can happen, but Trump is playing with a very thin margin, and victory is not a guarantee by any means.

prawnsambo · 20-04-2020 07:42PM

thomond2006 wrote: »

So should I buy 1000 barrels of crude oil now?

That price is for futures that are coming due.

And generally a negative value reflects the cost of storage.

20-04-2020 07:47PM

thomond2006 wrote: »

So should I buy 1000 barrels of crude oil now?

My understanding is now they are paying me to take it off their hands

Neil3030 · 20-04-2020 07:55PM

prawnsambo wrote: »

That price is for futures that are coming due.

And generally a negative value reflects the cost of storage.

Parks are closed....

Gives me an idea....

mfceiling · 20-04-2020 07:57PM

Lads if you want 30 minutes of something exceptional tonight then it's bbc2 at 8.30.

University challenge final tonight. Ho hum you say but not tonight. Tonight we have 2 teams with 2 absolute geniuses sitting opposite each other.

Wang vs Brandon.

Twitter has been great the last few weeks when this has been on.

This is going to be epic.

swiwi_ · 20-04-2020 07:59PM

Friendly tip for those might not beware: your credit company might have cancellation insurance

Our flights were cancelled with the airline "freezing" the tickets rather than paying out. F*ck that, I thought, a quick squiz on the CC website and I saw that having paid for the flights with a CC, I'm insured. So in goes the claim.

thomond2006 · 20-04-2020 08:04PM

It's at -40 USD a barrel now, since there's nowhere to store the pumped oil. Wow.

swiwi_ · 20-04-2020 08:13PM

mfceiling wrote: »

Lads if you want 30 minutes of something exceptional tonight then it's bbc2 at 8.30.

University challenge final tonight. Ho hum you say but not tonight. Tonight we have 2 teams with 2 absolute geniuses sitting opposite each other.

Wang vs Brandon.

Twitter has been great the last few weeks when this has been on.

This is going to be epic.

"Brandon" already has career quiz earnings of £300'000. Who's laughing at the geek now.

Bazzo · 20-04-2020 08:24PM

swiwi_ wrote: »

Friendly tip for those might not beware: your credit company might have cancellation insurance

Our flights were cancelled with the airline "freezing" the tickets rather than paying out. F*ck that, I thought, a quick squiz on the CC website and I saw that having paid for the flights with a CC, I'm insured. So in goes the claim.

I make virtually any big purchase with a credit card, most things are then insured. Just pay the balance at the end of the month.

mfceiling · 20-04-2020 08:25PM

swiwi_ wrote: »

"Brandon" already has career quiz earnings of £300'000. Who's laughing at the geek now.

I know!! I actually read up on the pair of them this week. I really admire people like this for some reason.

mfceiling · 20-04-2020 08:59PM

Well that was an anti climax.

20-04-2020 09:00PM

mfceiling wrote: »

Well that was an anti climax.

I was going to watch it but I had a fceiling it would be.

Panda Killa · 20-04-2020 09:01PM

mfceiling wrote: »

Well that was an anti climax.

*Said Mrs mfceiling*

apologies...

mfceiling · 20-04-2020 09:18PM

Panda Killa wrote: »

*Said Mrs mfceiling*

apologies...

Cheers P!!

Neil3030 · 20-04-2020 09:18PM

mfceiling wrote: »

I know!! I actually read up on the pair of them this week. I really admire people like this for some reason.

Did you see the lad that was crushing US Jeopardy last year?

Good podcast about him here: https://www.npr.org/transcripts/722198188?t=1587413883055

20-04-2020 09:21PM

Panda Killa wrote: »

Genuinely...it won't even be close...if maybe 200,000 Americans die from Covid...perhaps... but at the moment he's streets ahead

I'd be interested to know what data you are looking at which suggests such a clear win!

Trump has been campaigning non stop since the last election. He never stopped. He was holding rallies in February and campaigning matters - the parties put an earth shattering amount of work into them and they sway voter intention significantly enough.

Trump also enjoys substantial coverage bias over anyone at the moment. Once the campaigns start Biden's coverage will ramp up and start eating into some of those minutes. Trump sucks all the oxygen out of the room but he will still lose time he currently enjoys to his direct opponent.

His polling has never looked healthy for a sitting President and in swing states he has consistently polled behind a spectrum of Democratic candidates. In a normal election year this would be a massive issue due to all the advantages the incumbent has at this point in the campaigning.

For obvious reasons this is not a normal election year. Covid is a once in a century event (I hope) and Trump is also a very recent phenomenon in developed state politics. For this reason historical trends are historically inaccurate and polling relies on historical trends to project future likelihood.

Going on the swing from the mid terms where Democrats overshot polling and looking at the incredibly serious criminality of the American government I feel that logic is not pointing in Trumps favour.

Podge_irl · 20-04-2020 10:03PM

thomond2006 wrote: »

It's at -40 USD a barrel now, since there's nowhere to store the pumped oil. Wow.

It’s not really that there is “nowhere” to store it. WTI prices can fluctuate wildly based solely on the ability to store specifically in Cushing as that is where the physical delivery of the futures contracts take place. European crude - ie Brent - is still in the 20s. The WTI June contract is still in the 20$ range - people are trying to roll their positions forward to take delivery in June instead of May and it’s just causing a free for all in the May position. It’s a combination of factors but “oil” in the very general sense is not being priced negatively at all.

Neil3030 · 21-04-2020 05:34AM

Fine act of altruism here by the POTUS, making sure that nobody comes to the USA and risk catching Covid:

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1252418369170501639

pickarooney · 21-04-2020 07:46AM

Far be it from to see anything positive about anything the ****muppet does but how is this different to what Ardern did in NZ and which was widely praised?

sydthebeat · 21-04-2020 07:51AM

pickarooney wrote: »

Far be it from to see anything positive about anything the ****muppet does but how is this different to what Ardern did in NZ and which was widely praised?

The time that it was done.

Ardern did it immediately to curb the spread of the virus... Which pretty much worked.

Trump did it today to try to pass the blame..... As the virus runs rampant through the country.

Will trumps order make any difference at all to the spread of the virus? At a time that he himself is calling for civil revolt AGAINST restrictions to curb the spread?.

Bazzo · 21-04-2020 07:54AM

pickarooney wrote: »

Far be it from to see anything positive about anything the ****muppet does but how is this different to what Ardern did in NZ and which was widely praised?

Ardern managed not to announce the news with a racist dog whistle about immigrants and jobs mixed in for a start...

It seems like a fairly useless move from trump. The problem isn't that droves of infected immigrants are arriving, his own administration's incompetence means that the states will likely be ravaged and closing the borders now won't make a blind bit of difference.

Bazzo · 21-04-2020 08:00AM

Just to add fuel to the 2020 fire there are now mixed reports of Kim Jong Un having had major complications during heart surgery.

sydthebeat · 21-04-2020 08:06AM

Bazzo wrote: »

Just to add fuel to the 2020 fire there are now mixed reports of Kim Jong Un having had major complications during heart surgery.

Theres a cohort of uncles / cousins sharpening their blades as we speak.

Buer · 21-04-2020 08:08AM

pickarooney wrote: »

Far be it from to see anything positive about anything the ****muppet does but how is this different to what Ardern did in NZ and which was widely praised?

I suppose the issue is that the horse has already bolted on this one. In the next 10 days or so, the U.S. will move past 1 million cases of Covid-19 and 60k deaths which is incredible to think given their population density (half that of Ireland, one of Europe's less populated nations).

I think it's safe to say that the disease has fully infiltrated their society already and these measures aren't going to do much at this point.

With that said, I'm not sure it's a reason to be massively critical either outside of his rhetoric. Very few nations have locked down their borders.

thomond2006 · 21-04-2020 08:24AM

https://youtu.be/mHsg2M25PzY

Sport doesn't get much better than this Wimbledon final.

Buer · 21-04-2020 08:32AM

On a semi-related note, I see Novak Djokovic outed himself as an anti-vaxxer this week. Disappointing to see someone so admired and respected within sport to come out on that side of things. He's the pinnacle of physical atheleticism in our species. Him openly saying he disagrees with vaccines is going to influence some impressionable youngsters to some extent.

Synode · 21-04-2020 08:50AM

Imagine having to end your career because you don't believe in vaccines. What a complete tool

ionadnapóca · 21-04-2020 09:34AM

^
Djokovic is a total spacer
"No-vaxx Djokovic":pac:

This part says all you need to know about his beliefs

"...........this stance seems reminiscent of his ideological opposition to surgery, which led to his split with Andre Agassi in 2017 after he resisted medical intervention and thought his elbow would heal with alternative, holistic treatments. Djokovic finally underwent surgery in 2018 and when he awoke, he cried for three days. “Every time I thought about what I did, I felt like I had failed myself,” he told the Telegraph.

Clearly, he had not. “Official” medicine was the reason his pain abated. Five months later he lifted the Wimbledon title and by November he was back at No 1. Eventually, reality bites us all."

mfceiling · 21-04-2020 10:00AM

Buer wrote: »

On a semi-related note, I see Novak Djokovic outed himself as an anti-vaxxer this week. Disappointing to see someone so admired and respected within sport to come out on that side of things. He's the pinnacle of physical atheleticism in our species. Him openly saying he disagrees with vaccines is going to influence some impressionable youngsters to some extent.

I never warmed to him. Just could not bring myself to like him in any capacity at all. Now he comes out with this guff.

Off Topic Thread 4.0

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