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Covid19 Part XVI- 21,983 in ROI (1,339 deaths) 3,881 in NI (404 deaths)(05/05)Read OP

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  • #422
    BorneTobyWilde
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 37,728 ✭✭✭✭BorneTobyWilde


    hmmm wrote: »
    Median age of deaths is 84.


    I must have misheard him, was sure today he said 60.


  • #423
    nacho libre
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,617 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Apologies if it has already been answered, but are some of the new cases part of the German backlog?


  • #424
    briany
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,052 ✭✭✭✭briany


    hmmm wrote: »
    If you don't compare us to others, how do you know if we are doing better or worse?

    There is a dangerous virus in circulation. Perhaps 4 to 5% of the population of the world died in 1918, and the scientists are suggesting this could be similar if left get out of control. So while 77 deaths are shocking, we could be seeing hundreds and even higher if the worst case predictions were happening.

    Yes, we're talking about a death statistic, 'doing well' means having less deaths than the previous day, and/or less deaths than elsewhere. It means the situation isn't as bad as it could be or had been.

    'Doing well' does not mean that it is good that 40 people are dead. That will always be the highest of tragedies, especially for the deceased families, but it is still better than 70 dead, if 70 dead is what was forecast for that day.


  • #425
    ACitizenErased
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,757 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    Gretas Gonna Get Ya! wrote: »
    :rolleyes:

    According to some of you guys around here, every other country in the world (except Ireland) has unreliable numbers! lol

    The truth is, you certainly can compare countries... and our little Island is not comparing too favourably right now. We're not doing very well, our death total is very high for a country of our small population.

    You can bend and contort the stats any way you please, but there is no hiding from the fact that we are not handling this very well. We're struggling and too many of our citizens are sadly dying as a result.
    UK deaths are hospital only. Ours are any COVID related death. How can you possibly compare? Have you ever studied Maths?


  • #426
    blackcard
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,336 ✭✭✭blackcard


    I am someone who was very supportive of our efforts in relation to this crisis but what is going on in our nursing and residential homes is shocking and disgraceful. Jeez, they came out and talked about 'cocooning' our elderly when most of us didn't know what that meant so they knew that these were at risk locations but they seem to have done feck all in protecting our elderly. I am livid and I can only imagine what the residents and those with relatives are feeling


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  • #427
    Reckless Abandonment
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,544 ✭✭✭Reckless Abandonment


    New cases are heading in the right direction. Medina age of 60 (new cases) makes it look like its mainly in nursing homes. That's started at 44.
    Very sad to see so many deaths.


  • #428
    fritzelly
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,149 ✭✭✭✭fritzelly


    nacho libre wrote: »
    Apologies if it has already been answered, but are some of the new cases part of the German backlog?

    Backlog is cleared - any German testing now is part of the normal testing timeframe


  • #429
    rm212
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 689 ✭✭✭rm212


    ACitizenErased wrote: »
    Are you watching the briefing? They literally just showed a graph showing the deaths per day. The 39 and 41 are notifications, not confirmed deaths per day. Likewise, they were NOTIFIED of 77 deaths today.

    It just means that previous days had higher totals than initially thought, and today and the last two days will also have extra deaths that get reported in the future. Lag in reporting is not some magical thing you can invoke to make things look better. In the next few days, we’ll have more deaths from the last couple of days notified and so forth.


  • #430
    hmmm
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,203 ✭✭✭✭hmmm


    rm212 wrote: »
    Would you believe that you can actually compare death stats for an average day in the country pre-coronavirus, to now? 77 deaths from coronavirus would be almost an entire day of normal deaths in this country extra, on top of the usual deaths from other factors. Of course we could be seeing worse, but still people will think the lockdown is unnecessary with this.
    Well I agree the lockdown is necessary.

    There will be a three step process to tell us things are getting better:
    1. New cases will drop in week 1 (the stats are not accurate, anywhere in the world)
    2. ICU & hospitalisations will drop in week 2 onwards (accurate stats, they are dropping and this tells us we are at this point)
    3. Deaths will decrease in week 3 onwards (still going up, but they are due to cases which may be weeks old)


  • #431
    Strazdas
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,411 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    lbj666 wrote: »
    Hard to downplay that number its shocking and its the sort of number per capita that we were terrified about after seeing spain and italy.

    Over the weekend they explained that those deaths are deaths Notified in the past 24hrs not occurring, many of the deaths announced Saturday were from around 6th April. We will still be seeing high death numbers over the coming weeks given that they only seem to be getting a handle on the nursing home situation now with full on testing and everything. Imagine aswell there is a greater lag in reporting in nursing home setting rather than a hospital setting aswell.

    Apart from the deaths it really bothers me that 2 weeks away from the 5th of May that the numbers case/icu/deaths paint a very mixed picture. It is going to be a hard sell for many people that everything is going well enough to ease restrictions when fatalities /day remain so high. Most people just see numbers they dont look into in detail or analytically like many do on this thread.

    By the look of Tony's graphs though, we're going to see a big drop in reported daily deaths very soon.


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  • #432
    Jim_Hodge
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,156 ✭✭✭✭Jim_Hodge


    Gretas Gonna Get Ya! wrote: »
    :rolleyes:

    According to some of you guys around here, every other country in the world (except Ireland) has unreliable numbers! lol

    The truth is, you certainly can compare countries... and our little Island is not comparing too favourably right now. We're not doing very well, our death total is very high for a country of our small population.

    You can bend and contort the stats any way you please, but there is no hiding from the fact that we are not handling this very well. We're struggling and too many of our citizens are sadly dying as a result.

    You may not like how the stats are skewed by differing counting criteria but that's the way it is. Unfortunately we can't compare countries until some time after this is all over. What is clear is that the figures for most other countries will rise more than ours, based on the current counting standards.


  • #433
    lbj666
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,027 ✭✭✭lbj666


    rm212 wrote: »
    It just means that previous days had higher totals than initially thought, and today and the last two days will also have extra deaths that get reported in the future. Lag in reporting is some magical thing you can invoke to make things look better. In the next few days, we’ll have more deaths from the last couple of days notified and so forth.

    Its not the past couple of days, its the past 2-3 weeks.


  • #434
    Gynoid
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,524 ✭✭✭Gynoid


    ACitizenErased wrote: »
    Are you watching the briefing? They literally just showed a graph showing the deaths per day. The 39 and 41 are notifications, not confirmed deaths per day. Likewise, they were NOTIFIED of 77 deaths today.

    You do not seem to understand the part whereby a portion of the deaths NOTIFIED tomorrow, the next day and the next day etc will apply to today. You are putting a ( I would say political) spin on things. If the numbers dead have always been the numbers notified then one can follow that as a trend in itself . And not suddenly start dividing out figures between past days when things look bad.
    You cannot have your cake and eat it.


  • #435
    Mario007
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 877 ✭✭✭Mario007


    I've been through the pandemic in China. I've followed news in Slovakia and Czech republic because I used to live there. I've been following the news in Ireland because my mother and father who have underlying heatlh issues live here and honestly I have to say I would be happier if they were in any of the three above mentioned countries during this pandemic. Back in March I was thinking, Ireland is probably the safest place as the government seems to be at least compentent, Ireland is an island nation and people are reasonable here.

    After following the news in the past two weeks, it's honestly been extra anxiety inducing. The case numbers are through the roof in comparison to say Slovakia or the Czech republic (and it's not like Ireland is testing that much more than either of those countries). What's more worrying is the death numbers are also through the roof and I know for a fact that at least Slovakia records nursing home numbers.

    I know I'm only looking at all this from afar but I would say the Irish government has done a piss poor job of this whole mess. Let's remember that only a month ago they were still eager to hold St Patrick parades and Varadkar even flew over to the US to get a picture with Trump. They have underestimated this crisis at every stage. Praising them for doing the minimum effort and not being like Trump or Bolsonaro who deny the virus is an issue really tells you how bad they messed up when that's their only praise. And I say all this as someone who was a member of Young FG back in college. I'm not advocating putting anyone else in power like SF, in fact I think they'd do an even worse job. Doesn't change the fact that what Varadkar's governemnt did is far from enough as these numbers tell us.


  • #436
    Michael Dwyer
    Closed Accounts Posts: 78 ✭✭Michael Dwyer


    Strazdas wrote: »
    By the look of Tony's graphs though, we're going to see a big drop in reported daily deaths very soon.

    Tony had a lovely graph last Thursday. We were down to 20 deaths. Does your mother know you're out?


  • #437
    bfa1509
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,022 ✭✭✭bfa1509


    This is worse than Italy and Uk (but not Spain's) record for most deaths on one day if you take it as deaths per 1 million of population:

    Worst days:

    Spain - 20.21 p/m
    Ireland - 15.7 p/m
    Italy - 15.31 p/m
    UK - 14.8 p/m
    USA - 7.7 p/m


  • #438
    rm212
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 689 ✭✭✭rm212


    lbj666 wrote: »
    Its not the past couple of days, its the past 2-3 weeks.

    The lag period doesn’t matter, you’re missing the entire point and arguing semantics.


  • #439
    Quantum Erasure
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,643 ✭✭✭Quantum Erasure


    ACitizenErased wrote: »
    Are you watching the briefing? They literally just showed a graph showing the deaths per day. The 39 and 41 are notifications, not confirmed deaths per day. Likewise, they were NOTIFIED of 77 deaths today.


    Yeah, and the graph of deaths per day will be updated continually, the numbers for the last few days aren't final totals


  • #440
    DeanAustin
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,885 ✭✭✭DeanAustin


    ACitizenErased wrote: »
    UK deaths are hospital only. Ours are any COVID related death. How can you possibly compare? Have you ever studied Maths?

    Noticed a bit of this in the last few days. The point made is absolutely on the money but is there any need for this sort of keyboard warrior nonsense.


  • #441
    ACitizenErased
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,757 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    Gynoid wrote: »
    You do not seem to understand the part whereby a portion of the deaths NOTIFIED tomorrow, the next day and the next day etc will apply to today. You are putting a ( I would say political) spin on things. If the numbers dead have always been the numbers notified then one can follow that as a trend in itself . And not suddenly start dividing out figures between past days when things look bad.
    You cannot have your cake and eat it.
    What're ya on about political? Look at my posting history and re-assess your reply.



    They showed a graph on the briefing of the deaths per day. I stated a fact, I don't understand why you're debating it, when it's a fact. Like literal fact.


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  • #442
    bekker
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 912 ✭✭✭bekker


    510349.png

    Includes 1 death later rescinded by HSE (Mar. AKAIR) but not geographically located, so left in. HSE 15th Apr - 1 death that was reported earlier has now been discounted, again not geographically located, so left in.


  • #443
    lbj666
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,027 ✭✭✭lbj666


    Strazdas wrote: »
    By the look of Tony's graphs though, we're going to see a big drop in reported daily deaths very soon.

    Is this a graph he showed today? havent seen the press conference. Because they really need to start graphing out the deaths by date occurred, granted the number from the past 2 weeks or so would not be finalised figures.


  • #444
    FVP3
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,187 ✭✭✭FVP3


    77 is fairly atrocious at this stage.


  • #445
    Mental Mickey
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,669 ✭✭✭✭Mental Mickey


    lbj666 wrote: »
    Is this a graph he showed today? havent seen the press conference. Because they really need to start graphing out the deaths by date occurred, granted the number from the past 2 weeks or so would not be finalised figures.

    Press conference is on RTE News Now.........now


  • #446
    hmmm
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,203 ✭✭✭✭hmmm


    bfa1509 wrote: »
    This is worse than Italy and Uk (but not Spain's) record for most deaths on one day if you take it as deaths per 1 million of population:

    Worst days:

    Spain - 20.21 p/m
    Ireland - 15.7 p/m
    Italy - 15.31 p/m
    UK - 14.8 p/m
    USA - 7.7 p/m
    Every country is using different metrics. We are using a very broad figure, and we know that because the usual suspects aren't berating the government for "lying about the number of deaths".

    E.g. the UK are barely counting deaths in nursing homes
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/18/uk-care-home-covid-19-deaths-may-be-five-times-government-estimate

    Take out deaths in nursing homes, we'd have very few deaths comparatively.


  • #447
    Arghus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,215 ✭✭✭✭Arghus


    Tony getting a bit testy with this guy.


  • #448
    Wombatman
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,349 ✭✭✭Wombatman


    These reporters are absolutely dire.


  • #449
    easypazz
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,346 ✭✭✭easypazz


    Cork Boy 53 wrote: »
    Would you ever cop on to yourself and wake up and smell the coffee? 77 new deaths by far the highest daily figure announced since the virus spread to Ireland and you claim that things are moving in the right direction? FFS.

    We are moving in the right direction.

    I know you want lockdown until 2021, but its not going to happen.


  • #450
    Hobgoblin11
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,062 ✭✭✭Hobgoblin11


    77 is a major jump in our stats regardless of it coming after a weekend

    Dundalk, Co. Louth



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  • #451
    An Ciarraioch
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,806 ✭✭✭An Ciarraioch


    https://twitter.com/juneshannon/status/1252283443163037697


This discussion has been closed.
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