Covid19 Part XV - 15,251 in ROI (610 deaths) 2,645 in NI (194 deaths) (19/04) Read OP

spookwoman · 18-04-2020 02:41AM

fritzelly wrote: »

Where are you getting 0.038% for Italy - even flu has a worse CFR than that yet doesn't fill the hospitals

the 0.038% is probably % of population, if using 2018 population number would be about 0.037%

owlbethere · 18-04-2020 02:50AM

patnor1011 wrote: »

Here is what the Executive Director at the WHO Health Emergencies Program, Dr. Michael Ryan, said during an interview:

“In most parts of the world, due to lockdown, most of the transmission that’s actually happening in many countries now is happening in the household, at family level. In some senses, transmission has been taken off the streets and pushed back into family units. Now we need to go and look in families and find those people who may be sick and remove them, and isolate them, in a safe and dignified manner.”

Well that escalated quickly. Now we are talking about raiding homes and seizing family members who are sick.
Where is the limit on government powers during an emergency?

The same thing happened during TB. People were taken away to isolation hospitals. It wouldn't be any harm if Ireland went down this route of isolation centres with this.

18-04-2020 04:55AM

https://www.boston25news.com/news/cdc-reviewing-stunning-universal-testing-results-boston-homeless-shelter/Z253TFBO6RG4HCUAARBO4YWO64/

"The broad-scale testing took place at the shelter in Boston’s South End a week and a half ago because of a small cluster of cases there.

Of the 397 people tested, 146 people tested positive. Not a single one had any symptoms."

"The 146 people who tested positive were immediately moved to two different temporary isolation facilities in Boston. According to O’Connell, only one of those patients needed hospital care, and many continue to show no symptoms."

Good news if true and no more end up in hospital.

Quantum Erasure · 18-04-2020 05:08AM

Deleted User wrote: »

300,000 is 0.025% of Africans. Italy is currently at 0.038% for deaths.

Not sure why anyone would band all of Africa together except to make scary numbers.

Just from looking at worldometers, it seems to be taking off in sub Saharan africa, countries with low numbers of cases, but big percentage increases. (although in some, numbers aren't reported every day, making the jump seem large)

owlbethere · 18-04-2020 05:37AM

Deleted User wrote: »

https://www.boston25news.com/news/cdc-reviewing-stunning-universal-testing-results-boston-homeless-shelter/Z253TFBO6RG4HCUAARBO4YWO64/

"The broad-scale testing took place at the shelter in Boston’s South End a week and a half ago because of a small cluster of cases there.

Of the 397 people tested, 146 people tested positive. Not a single one had any symptoms."

If those results are right, it's the best news of the week.

Surely the best way forward here is to send them to the hospital for testing to double check on a covid19 infection. Just in case the tests are faulty.

Or here in Ireland, to do some random testing of the population and see what the results show.

18-04-2020 05:41AM

owlbethere wrote: »

Surely the best way forward here is to send them to the hospital for testing to double check on a covid19 infection. Just in case the tests are faulty.

Or here in Ireland, to do some random testing of the population and see what the results show.

If antibody testing is close, I'd rather wait and test people for active infection and also whether or not they've had it before.

Danzy · 18-04-2020 05:59AM

wakka12 wrote: »

WHO says coronavirus can be contained in Africa

https://www.straitstimes.com/world/africa/coronavirus-africa-can-still-contain-covid-19-outbreak-says-who

BUt despite that, 300,000 Africans are expected to die in the next 6 months from coronavirus
A scenario where interventions to stop the virus are not put in place, 3.3 million africans are thought to die before the end of 2020

https://www.straitstimes.com/world/africa/at-least-300000-africans-expected-to-die-in-coronavirus-pandemic-un-agency

300k dead in 6 months is an incredibly small figure out of 1.3bn people, where Aids is highly existent, never mind TB, multiple other conditions, poverty, mass slums etc.

The 3.3 mn figure isn't far off the same consideration.

Not to be flippant.

18-04-2020 06:08AM

Three months today since I've worked.. Saturday 18th January was my first day off for lunar new year and we never went back.

Voltex · 18-04-2020 07:05AM

owlbethere wrote: »

Surely the best way forward here is to send them to the hospital for testing to double check on a covid19 infection. Just in case the tests are faulty.

Or here in Ireland, to do some random testing of the population and see what the results show.

Another piece from Stanford. Roughly 2-4% of the popukation has been exposed.
And surely a lot higher again in hotspots like NY. But if true, it puts US infections into the tens of millions. This is also consistent with Dutch, Danish and Wuhan early serology testing.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v1

munsterlegend · 18-04-2020 07:11AM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Three months today since I've worked.. Saturday 18th January was my first day off for lunar new year and we never went back.

Are you in China?

amadangomor · 18-04-2020 07:11AM

owlbethere wrote: »

The same thing happened during TB. People were taken away to isolation hospitals. It wouldn't be any harm if Ireland went down this route of isolation centres with this.

South Korea do it and they are the example everyone uses of how to successfully handle Covid-19.

They will keep people an isolation centre until they get the test result. Negative- go home. Positive - stay for 2 weeks

18-04-2020 07:15AM

munsterlegend wrote: »

Are you in China?

Vietnam.

NaiveMelodies · 18-04-2020 07:28AM

wakka12 wrote: »

WHO says coronavirus can be contained in Africa

https://www.straitstimes.com/world/africa/coronavirus-africa-can-still-contain-covid-19-outbreak-says-who

BUt despite that, 300,000 Africans are expected to die in the next 6 months from coronavirus
A scenario where interventions to stop the virus are not put in place, 3.3 million africans are thought to die before the end of 2020

https://www.straitstimes.com/world/africa/at-least-300000-africans-expected-to-die-in-coronavirus-pandemic-un-agency

If, for example, developed countries cannot source the required quantities of PPE equipment then Africa has no chance of containing this.

coastwatch · 18-04-2020 07:30AM

Voltex wrote: »

Another piece from Stanford. Roughly 2-4% of the popukation has been exposed.
And surely a lot higher again in hotspots like NY. But if true, it puts US infections into the tens of millions. This is also consistent with Dutch, Danish and Wuhan early serology testing.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v1

According to some of the comments, the sample population may not be random, because of how they were recruited.

Typical comment,

Daniel Shanklin
10 hours ago
This study abstract should be rewritten as follow: "A study of Facebook users who thought they might have COVID-19 resulted in a roughly 2.49% to 4.16% positive-test rate"

The fact that you've extrapolated this to an entire population is confounding.

caveat emptor · 18-04-2020 07:37AM

owlbethere wrote: »

Surely the best way forward here is to send them to the hospital for testing to double check on a covid19 infection. Just in case the tests are faulty.

Or here in Ireland, to do some random testing of the population and see what the results show.

We do tv ratings with a tiny sample size to work out how many people are watching what? I.e less than 500. Is there any value in doing something similar To see general level of transmission in the community.

Will never be 100% accurate but could be controlled and within a certain tolerance. The distribution on a per county basis doesn’t vary massively (apart Dublin and Cavan.)

giveitholly · 18-04-2020 07:47AM

Maybe this has been answered before but I will ask anyway,just say someone is very close to death or is very sick and they contract covid-19,This person then passes away.Is this death recorded as been from Covid even though the person could of died naturally or from say cancer if the person had that disease.Suppose what I am asking is can someone die from other causes if they only have a mild case of covid-19 and the death is still contributed to convid-19?

Voltex · 18-04-2020 08:01AM

coastwatch wrote: »

According to some of the comments, the sample population may not be random, because of how they were recruited.

Typical comment,

Daniel Shanklin
10 hours ago
This study abstract should be rewritten as follow: "A study of Facebook users who thought they might have COVID-19 resulted in a roughly 2.49% to 4.16% positive-test rate"

The fact that you've extrapolated this to an entire population is confounding.

These are senior researchers from Stanford Medical school and University of Southern California - Id suspect their methodology would encompass a high level of rigour, and as they say in the paper, they've controlled for zip code, gender and age.

A quick review on Google Scholar of lead author Eran Bendavid has been cited over 4k times - so hardly a novice.

wakka12 · 18-04-2020 08:11AM

Voltex wrote: »

These are senior researchers from Stanford Medical school and University of Southern California - Id suspect their methodology would encompass a high level of rigour, and as they say in the paper, they've controlled for zip code, gender and age.

A quick review on Google Scholar of lead author Eran Bendavid has been cited over 4k times - so hardly a novice.

It's not to say the researchers aren't smart or experienced, but the candidates were self volunteered and of course will be highly skewed towards those who exhibited symptoms and believe they had covid already , it certainly cannot be extrapolated to an entire country's population, the researchers even say that. It is not a random community testing at all really

Hooked · 18-04-2020 08:12AM

giveitholly wrote: »

Maybe this has been answered before but I will ask anyway,just say someone is very close to death or is very sick and they contract covid-19,This person then passes away.Is this death recorded as been from Covid even though the person could of died naturally or from say cancer if the person had that disease.Suppose what I am asking is can someone die from other causes if they only have a mild case of covid-19 and the death is still contributed to convid-19?

From what I’m reading... some countries are doing the former. most are adopting the latter (I.e. a covid-19 death WITH underlying conditions)

The straw that broke the camels back.

wakka12 · 18-04-2020 08:13AM

giveitholly wrote: »

Maybe this has been answered before but I will ask anyway,just say someone is very close to death or is very sick and they contract covid-19,This person then passes away.Is this death recorded as been from Covid even though the person could of died naturally or from say cancer if the person had that disease.Suppose what I am asking is can someone die from other causes if they only have a mild case of covid-19 and the death is still contributed to convid-19?

Covid will be listed as one of a number of contributing causes of death in that case

giveitholly · 18-04-2020 08:21AM

wakka12 wrote: »

Covid will be listed as one of a number of contributing causes of death in that case

Will there be any post mortem carried out to determine exact cause of death? If not then how can the true figure of deaths due to covid be accurate?

18-04-2020 08:32AM

giveitholly wrote: »

Will there be any post mortem carried out to determine exact cause of death? If not then how can the true figure of deaths due to covid be accurate?

Does it matter? There isn't some global law saying we need to know the exact number of deaths. Some deviation in the numbers isn't going to kill or save anybody.

joe_99 · 18-04-2020 08:34AM

giveitholly wrote: »

Maybe this has been answered before but I will ask anyway,just say someone is very close to death or is very sick and they contract covid-19,This person then passes away.Is this death recorded as been from Covid even though the person could of died naturally or from say cancer if the person had that disease.Suppose what I am asking is can someone die from other causes if they only have a mild case of covid-19 and the death is still contributed to convid-19?

In Ireland if you have tested positive for covid it is recorded as a Covid death regardless of how you die. For example if I test positive for covid and then fall down the stairs and die it will be a covid death.

giveitholly · 18-04-2020 08:35AM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Does it matter? There isn't some global law saying we need to know the exact number of deaths. Some deviation in the numbers isn't going to kill or save anybody.

Well it would be interesting to know how many people actually died from covid,now I know this isn't possible reading the posts above

Gynoid · 18-04-2020 08:36AM

joe_99 wrote: »

In Ireland if you have tested positive for covid it is recorded as a Covid death regardless of how you die. For example if I test positive for covid and then fall down the stairs and die it will be a covid death.

Source?

giveitholly · 18-04-2020 08:37AM

joe_99 wrote: »

In Ireland if you have tested positive for covid it is recorded as a Covid death regardless of how you die. For example if I test positive for covid and then fall down the stairs and die it will be a covid death.

Ok thanks for that,that doesn't make sense imo,a true reflection of how many are dying from Covid will never be established if every death is put down to covid even though the person might not of died from it

Widdensushi · 18-04-2020 08:39AM

joe_99 wrote: »

In Ireland if you have tested positive for covid it is recorded as a Covid death regardless of how you die. For example if I test positive for covid and then fall down the stairs and die it will be a covid death.

that would be underlying conditions

Gynoid · 18-04-2020 08:40AM

giveitholly wrote: »

Ok thanks for that,that doesn't make sense imo,a true reflection of how many are dying from Covid will never be established if every death is put down to covid even though the person might not of died from it

Maybe that poster is not as omniscient as they claim to be? Just maybe...

billyhead · 18-04-2020 08:40AM

When do you think we would be able to visit elderly parents again. Both of mine live beyond the 2km limit from me and don't use Skype or any of that modern technology so we can only communicate by phone. I haven't seen them in person now since this kicked off a few weeks ago and we both miss the weekly meet up every Sunday. I am not at a risk of contracting the birud because I am working remotely and live on my own. It's horrible I can't see them. If a vaccine isn't available for 12-18 months does this mean I would be safe for their sake to wait until then. That's a horrible thought.

18-04-2020 08:42AM

giveitholly wrote: »

Well it would be interesting to know how many people actually died from covid,now I know this isn't possible reading the posts above

There will be an estimate made in a couple of years. It's impossible to know the exact number, but it is possible to look at all deaths and compare to previous years etc.

Covid19 Part XV - 15,251 in ROI (610 deaths) 2,645 in NI (194 deaths) (19/04) Read OP

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