Covid19 Part XV - 15,251 in ROI (610 deaths) 2,645 in NI (194 deaths) (19/04) Read OP

is_that_so · 17-04-2020 02:54PM

smelly sock wrote: »

What time is Holohan on at today?

See the sticky!:D

An Ciarraioch · 17-04-2020 02:55PM

Even with caveats, it appears hospital deaths in the UK peaked on April 8th, and have fallen since:

https://twitter.com/ian_a_jones/status/1251153457140006918

tobefrank321 · 17-04-2020 02:56PM

Tony EH wrote: »

Nobody really KNEW anything for much of January.

The Chinese only told the WHO on December 31st that there were unusual cases of "pneumonia" breaking out in Wuhan.

In the first week of January, they ruled out SARS and announced a new virus called Covid-19.

China announced it's first death on January 11.

China reported it's second death on January 17

China conforms human to human transmission on January 20

The WHO declared the coronavirus a global emergency

Nobody really had a clue what was going to happen in January for a fact, no matter what the Capt. Hindsights might tell you.

Except that Taiwan sent an email to the WHO on 31st December advising them of their suspicions it was person to person transmission, a full 20 days before China declared it to be so.

https://www.cdc.gov.tw/En/Bulletin/Detail/PAD-lbwDHeN_bLa-viBOuw?typeid=158

Taiwan put in place a plan based on the presumption it was person to person transmission.

So yes, the WHO did have a clue what was likely happening. They chose to ignore the Taiwanese.

Not looking good for your Captain Hindsight assertion is it Tony?

Michael Dwyer · 17-04-2020 02:56PM

Tony EH wrote: »

I've no interest in your bollocks talk.

It's full on bollocks from yourself. Bollocks this, bollocks that..get that bollocks out of my face was another one.

smelly sock · 17-04-2020 02:57PM

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Except that Taiwan sent an email to the WHO on 31st December advising them of their suspicions it was person to person transmission, a full 20 days before China declared it to be so.

https://www.cdc.gov.tw/En/Bulletin/Detail/PAD-lbwDHeN_bLa-viBOuw?typeid=158

Taiwan put in place a plan based on the presumption it was person to person transmission.

So yes, the WHO did have a clue what was likely happening. They chose to ignore the Taiwanese.

Not looking good for your Captain Hindsight assertion is it Tony?

I'd be highly suspicious of that source.

eagle eye · 17-04-2020 02:59PM

smelly sock wrote:

I'd be highly suspicious of that source.

It's been reported in many places.

Tony EH · 17-04-2020 03:00PM

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Except that Taiwan sent an email to the WHO on 31st December advising them of their suspicions it was person to person transmission, a full 20 days before China declared it to be so.

https://www.cdc.gov.tw/En/Bulletin/Detail/PAD-lbwDHeN_bLa-viBOuw?typeid=158

Taiwan put in place a plan based on the presumption it was person to person transmission.

So yes, the WHO did have a clue what was likely happening. They chose to ignore the Taiwanese.

Not looking good for your Captain Hindsight assertion is it Tony?

So you just wanted the WHO to call the Chinese liars then because Taiwan made a presumption.

Kermit.de.frog · 17-04-2020 03:02PM

Rock and a hard place for the WHO.

They need China's co operation probably more than any other country given risks and passed epidemics.

tobefrank321 · 17-04-2020 03:02PM

smelly sock wrote: »

I'd be highly suspicious of that source.

The Taiwanese implemented a plan on 31st December on the basis this was person to person virus. That can't really be argued with.

joe_99 · 17-04-2020 03:03PM

smelly sock wrote: »

Seriously? That's BS. I can guarantee you that if someone in a nursing home needs ICU admission they get it.

This times 100.

hmmm · 17-04-2020 03:04PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Rock and a hard place for the WHO.

They need China's co operation probably more than any other country given risks and passed epidemics.

And apparently every time there is a Twitter post, or some other warning, the WHO are required to immediately treat it as fact according to some on here. It's all very confusing.

The WHO were aware in January that the virus was spreading, but did not know the facts. They had to work with China to get access to the country, and when they did they sent an expert team. That team reported very quickly and advised the world to prepare. I'm not sure what else they could be expected to do.

The only reason there is a controversy over WHO is that Trump did nothing with the information, hoping this would good away, and is now desperate for a scapegoat.

joe_99 · 17-04-2020 03:04PM

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Of course your ICU numbers will be down if you don't bother treating the very sick and dying

Possibly the worst and most dangerous statement on Boards today.

tobefrank321 · 17-04-2020 03:06PM

Tony EH wrote: »

So you just wanted the WHO to call the Chinese liars then because Taiwan made a presumption.

Nope.

They were given two sources, one Taiwanese, the other Chinese.

They could have said something like, "We believe this may be a SARS like outbreak and countries should be vigilant and implement plans on that basis". Instead they said we believe there is no person to person transmission.

You'd have to assume if a number of people come down with pneumonia like symptoms in a locality in China, that a SARS like outbreak is a strong probability.

I'm going to give it a rest now Tony, for your sake and mine. My view is the WHO were negligent at best and puppets of the Chinese at worst.

tobefrank321 · 17-04-2020 03:09PM

smelly sock wrote: »

Seriously? That's BS. I can guarantee you that if someone in a nursing home needs ICU admission they get it.

OK so, how many of those who died in the Port Laoise home went to ICU?

tobefrank321 · 17-04-2020 03:10PM

hmmm wrote: »

And apparently every time there is a Twitter post, or some other warning, the WHO are required to immediately treat it as fact according to some on here. It's all very confusing.

The WHO were aware in January that the virus was spreading, but did not know the facts. They had to work with China to get access to the country, and when they did they sent an expert team. That team reported very quickly and advised the world to prepare. I'm not sure what else they could be expected to do.

The only reason there is a controversy over WHO is that Trump did nothing with the information, hoping this would good away, and is now desperate for a scapegoat.

An email warning about a SARS outbreak from the Taiwanese CDC would carry more weight than a twitter post in fairness.

gmisk · 17-04-2020 03:10PM

s1ippy wrote: »

I can only speak to my own experience but I have exercised an ABUNDANCE of caution. I was absent from my teaching job the week before school was shut down because I have asthma. This turned out to be the correct decision days after the school closed, as a parent whose child socialises with children in my class put on her Instagram that she was awaiting test results. Turned out to be positive and a week and a half after the schools shut, so my SNAs and the parents of children in my class were dealing with their special needs children having brought coronavirus into their homes. I felt incredibly guilty that I had protected myself and not warned them, but how could I really have been sure? I would have sounded "hysterical".

Now my work as a carer is only with one client because one died and I changed my schedule weeks ago. I'm their only help and none of the leave the house. I do shopping for them, I've been doing click and collect which is very nerve-wracking having to go into the shop... but they've freed up slots for carers and the elderly, so I do their shopping with the bits I get for my parents and I have a delivery on Tuesday which should cover three weeks, keeping some in sealed containers in our fridge until the following week which saves me having to do it weekly. I also bought a tonne of my own PPE so I'm using that as we're not allowed to use the agency's stuff when cleaning people's houses or feeding them, only for intimate personal care. Crazy.

The reason it looks like community transmission is dropping off is because we are not testing in the community.

I said it last night and I'll say it again, nine of the ten houses on my road have this infection, a total of around 30 people. The two of us living here are the only ones who aren't sick. Only five of these have a confirmed case. This morning as I was watering the plants, I heard choking from the elderly woman next door, who then collapsed in her garden. Her son rang the ambulance. Note that the son that called for the ambulance was in the house, but he isn't a member of her household. She lives with the youngest son and the daughter who is an air hostess who is a confirmed case. The air hostess is not self isolating and regularly goes out, the younger son (around 19) is also not at home this morning for some unknown reason.

My brother is a contact tracer. He says the scope of who they regard as close contacts is staggeringly limited. Remember the week of our first case, the woman who went from Dublin to Northern Ireland? Nobody who was actually proximal to her on her trip would have been flagged or called, they're not going checking security footage and tracing to discover people's identities. They might have called the bus company but it's up to them then to take further action and they might not.

The brother says he's literally just following a simple script with the confirmed infected person if they're conscious, "were you chatting with anyone during the week? Do you think you might have been closer to them than 2m?" not feckin CSI like some people think, they don't have the personnel or systems or efficiency within our system to actually do their due diligence.

My view is that the figures are not stable. We have suppressed the peak, but we're not by any stretch of the imagination over the hill. In a week from now, we'll start seeing the consequences of people going away for the Easter holidays and the numbers will be much less manageable.

Get comfortable anyway because there's absolutely no way things are going to be lifted in May.

Thanks for posting.

That air hostess needs to be locked up...how selfish....her own mother collapsing might wise her up a bit!

is_that_so · 17-04-2020 03:10PM

tobefrank321 wrote: »

OK so, how many of those who died in the Port Laoise home went to ICU?

Likely none, based on the answer Henry gave last night, but the consultants went to them to administer care.

joe_99 · 17-04-2020 03:12PM

tobefrank321 wrote: »

OK so, how many of those who died in the Port Laoise home went to ICU?

Do some research on ICU before posting. Your ignorance is breathtaking.

Tony EH · 17-04-2020 03:12PM

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Nope.

They were given two sources, one Taiwanese, the other Chinese.

They could have said something like, "We believe this may be a SARS like outbreak and countries should be vigilant and implement plans on that basis". Instead they said we believe there is no person to person transmission.

You'd have to assume if a number of people come down with pneumonia like symptoms in a locality in China, that a SARS like outbreak is a strong probability.

I'm going to give it a rest now Tony, for your sake and mine. My view is the WHO were negligent at best and puppets of the Chinese at worst.

You're a liar.

This is the tweet the WHO passed on in January.

They were only saying that the Chinese had found no clear evidence of human to human contact. They mention nothing of their own data on the matter, because they had no clear data.

keynes · 17-04-2020 03:13PM

Tony EH wrote: »

They just passed on the information they had at the time.

The fact of the matter is the that WHO had nothing else more solid to go on at the time

By this logic, they should have reported that North Korea was "totally free" of the virus.

In any case, the WHO seemed very willing to pass on Chinese "information", but oddly enough, where highly conservative when coming to their "pandemic" assessment. So they are unthinking when it comes to Chinese info, but blind when it comes to calling out what's unraveling before their eyes. You'd almost thing they were stooges for the Chinese!

keynes · 17-04-2020 03:17PM

Tony EH wrote: »

You're a liar.

This is the tweet the WHO passed on in January.

They were only saying that the Chinese had found no clear evidence of human to human contact. They mention nothing of their own data on the matter, because they had no clear data.

We're now playing semantics! In any case, they lent their imprimatur to this and implicitly agreed with it. How naive are you?

Ficheall · 17-04-2020 03:17PM

Tony EH wrote: »

Nobody really had a clue what was going to happen in January for a fact, no matter what the Capt. Hindsights might tell you.

Right, they didn't know for a fact. So they should have admitted that and taken some precautions, or perhaps encouraged gov'ts to make their own decisions.
Not all those who were less blinded than you are Captain Hindsights.

Strazdas · 17-04-2020 03:17PM

keynes wrote: »

By this logic, they should have reported that North Korea was "totally free" of the virus.

In any case, the WHO seemed very willing to pass on Chinese "information", but oddly enough, where highly conservative when coming to their "pandemic" assessment. So they are unthinking when it comes to Chinese info, but blind when it comes to calling out what's unraveling before their eyes. You'd almost thing they were stooges for the Chinese!

I would say they were well aware they were dealing with a dictatorship and a dodgy outfit but couldn't say anything about it publicly.

If they'd done anything the alt right keyboard warriors are suggesting now, they would have been kicked out of China immediately.

Kermit.de.frog · 17-04-2020 03:20PM

Tony EH wrote: »

You're a liar.

This is the tweet the WHO passed on in January.

They were only saying that the Chinese had found no clear evidence of human to human contact. They mention nothing of their own data on the matter, because they had no clear data.

Like all these organisations they are not some mystical all knowing, all seeing overlords.

They depend on member countries to report accurately. Countries can not be forced to do this. There is no way to enforce.

I'm confused as to what some, like Trump, thought they were suppose to or able to do?

Tony EH · 17-04-2020 03:20PM

Ficheall wrote: »

Right, they didn't know for a fact. So they should have admitted that and taken some precautions, or perhaps encouraged gov'ts to make their own decisions.
Not all those who were less blinded than you are Captain Hindsights.

LOL, Shudda, wudda, cudda. :rolleyes:

What a pity all you heroes weren't around to tell the WHO what to do.

Rob A. Bank · 17-04-2020 03:21PM

hmmm wrote: »

The only reason there is a controversy over WHO is that Trump did nothing with the information, hoping this would good away, and is now desperate for a scapegoat.

W.H.O., Now Trump’s Scapegoat, Warned About Coronavirus Early and Often

The W.H.O. were informed about a cluster of viral pneumonias in a Wohan hospital on December 31st 2019.

It was probably one among the 300 alerts they get every day on average.

They sifted through the alerts and realized that this one was very important.

They contacted the CDC (USA) on the 3rd of January by phone and issued an epidemic alert to all countries on 5th of January.

Dr Mike Ryan said in answer to a question on this matter the other day :-

"And, if I may just add in terms of official information to our member states: On January the 5th, WHO published an alert to all our member states on the epidemic platform that we have. And on the same day published the public information on that on January the 5th.

And very prudently on January the 7th, the CDC (USA) established its incident management system in response to that, and subsequently put out a health advisory I think to all frontline public health and health staff in the US, which again like Maria said, detailed the procedures for investigating cases, including droplets spread precautions, and the mechanisms for investigating and asking all physicians and frontline public health workers to report any cases meeting the preliminary case definition.

So from that perspective, the information was shared and very appropriate actions were taken in the United States in response to that alert."

See WHO transcript:- HERE

Even The New York Times had the story on the 6th of January.

So the USA were informed about the start of this epidemic by W.H.O at the beginning of January. Trump did nothing for 70 days except deny, blather and spout rubbish, leaving the United States totally unprepared for the carnage that was to come.

The Trump charge that the World Health Organization delayed reporting this epidemic is total f*cking bulls*hit, just like the majority of toxic sewage that emanates from his mouth.

Mental Mickey · 17-04-2020 03:23PM

What a d!ckhead

bettyoleary · 17-04-2020 03:23PM

joe_99 wrote: »

Do some research on ICU before posting. Your ignorance is breathtaking.

Good job this gentleman wasn't in that home isn't it on Sat. Captain Tom raised nearly 2mill for NHS and he will be 100 on 30th April. Has underlying conditions.

maddog · 17-04-2020 03:23PM

The WHO changed the terms of how they announced a global pandemic 1 month before they declared a global pandemic, funny no?

17-04-2020 03:23PM

smelly sock wrote: »

Seriously? That's BS. I can guarantee you that if someone in a nursing home needs ICU admission they get it.

I work in hospital and have worked in ICU in the past. There is a decision made at ward level about what level of escalation of treatment a patient will be elevated to.

If it's believed patient would benefit from an ICU admission, they would be sent to ICU, if they have multiple co-morbidities/ are very frail. That decision becomes harder.

Covid19 Part XV - 15,251 in ROI (610 deaths) 2,645 in NI (194 deaths) (19/04) Read OP

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