Covid19 Part XV - 15,251 in ROI (610 deaths) 2,645 in NI (194 deaths) (19/04) Read OP

tobefrank321 · 17-04-2020 02:27PM

lawred2 wrote: »

So the Chinese weren't hiding anything or obfuscating...

I'm confused - thought they weren't to be trusted

The Chinese told the WHO early in January that that the virus could not be transmitted person to person.

The Taiwanese emailed the WHO before that, saying they strongly believed the virus was being transmitted person to person. The WHO didn't even bother replying and continue to deny they received the email, prompting the Taiwanese to publish it recently.

It was only a couple of weeks after that email the WHO admitted the virus was being spread person to person.

Something like this might seem excusable in hindsight, problem is they were advised at the time it was being transmitted person to person and chose to ignore it.

Ficheall · 17-04-2020 02:27PM

Tony EH wrote: »

Ignore what you want. Nobody gives a shit.

But you're still talking bollocks.

The WHO hadn't any real choice but to go with what China was providing them with. If they had simply dismissed what China was saying and called them liars, it may have gone some way to pleasing little shitbags on the web who are only interested in pointing fingers, but it wouldn't have served any other purpose and we would be in a bigger mess now.

China was the patient zero of a potential global pandemic and the WHO needed access to that country to gather their own facts. Facts that were going to be vital in combatting the spread of the virus which little was known about in January or February.

They didn't have to call China liars to acknowledge the virus was going to be a problem, which was pretty obvious for quite some time before they started encouraging countries to do anything about it. Even while Italy was getting f*cked by the virus, the WHO were saying it had the potential to become a problem, but that for the moment it could be contained.
China never said they had it wholly contained, and anybody watching China in January would have seen there was a sh*tstorm on the way. Had gov'ts made their own calls, instead of relying on the WHO to make the calls for them, they might have treated the pandemic with the concern it deserved.

Christy42 · 17-04-2020 02:28PM

Hobgoblin11 wrote: »

Ireland has on 77 recovered people! That's wild

Many countries don't really record that Stát. Remember this is just a collection of official stats. Some countries don't really release testing data, we only do that once a week. A lot of caveats.

caveat emptor · 17-04-2020 02:30PM

hmmm wrote: »

I don't know why you keep quoting this person as if he is some sort of expert. Why haven't you done your research on this? Here's what one of the world's leading epidemiologists has to say.

https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1250235206088482816

Must be a lot of ego's in epidemiology. He was right on quite a lot of things. This is not a game of "who the **** are you"

https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1232504991170072584?s=20

frillyleaf · 17-04-2020 02:30PM

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Seriously? Where do you get this stuff? Do you even believe what you are saying?

Re uncontrolled growth, if you were around here 6-7 weeks ago, you would have seen numerous people calling for parades to be cancelled, the madness of Cheltenham, schools to be closed, and travel to and from northern Italy immediately suspended. All of which the government either dithered on or did nothing at all. They actually wanted to allow the parades to go ahead to prove we were open for business and to help the tourist and hospitality trade. Insanity.

Mistakes? I would call them monumental c*ck ups, led by Simon Harris and Leo Varadkar. It didn't have to be this bad. It didn't have to be near this bad. Confirmed cases we are worse per capita than the US, and similar per capita in terms of deaths. Yet all we hear is we are doing well, they are doing terribly.

Why are they saying we are doing so well ? Maybe trump isn’t doing as bad as people think

Kermit.de.frog · 17-04-2020 02:32PM

hmmm wrote: »

I don't know why you keep quoting this person as if he is some sort of expert. Why haven't you done your research on this? Here's what one of the world's leading epidemiologists has to say.

https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1250235206088482816

Ouch.

So that man, Eric, basically somehow got in to a situation of advising a governor despite not being qualified in the relevant discipline?

Tony EH · 17-04-2020 02:33PM

keynes wrote: »

They didn't have to enthusiastically report everything on twitter if they didn't know it was "factual". China's history of suppressing information, coupled with the fact that the virus originated in there should have urged caution---lots of caution.

The didn't "enthusiastically" report anything.

They just passed on the information they had at the time.

There wasn't really anything else they could have done, until they had their own facts.

keynes wrote: »

The WHO should have assessed and appraised the information before reporting anything; that's what they get paid millions to do, surely?

And then people like you would on here blaming them for wasting time.

The fact of the matter is the that WHO had nothing else more solid to go on at the time and HAD to offer some sort of trust to what the Chinese were telling them, so they could build their own more accurate information. Not doing so would have restricted their access and left them (and subsequently us) even more in the dark.

maninasia · 17-04-2020 02:34PM

is_that_so wrote: »

Research on it by WHO themselves suggested there is not a lot to be gained from it IF you are following the other known effective guidelines. It's an individual choice of countries but people are likely to find a way around bans in our connected world.

No they aren't going to find anyway around it if you enforce border control and quarantine.

maninasia · 17-04-2020 02:36PM

normanoffside wrote: »

Universal testing in a large Homeless shelter in Boston revealed that 36% had the disease on the day of testing (147 people)

Only 1 had a fever and 13 had a cough.

None were seriously sick.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.12.20059618v1

Need to see how they selected the homeless.for that , also track these people one week later.
Diamond princess cruise ship will have solid statistics as they were all tested.

is_that_so · 17-04-2020 02:39PM

maninasia wrote: »

No they aren't going to find anyway around it if you enforce border control and quarantine.

As I said there's research on the travel question : I've linked to it.

stephenjmcd · 17-04-2020 02:40PM

From rte
The number of confirmed Covid-19 patients in intensive care units was down to 138 at 8pm yesterday evening. This compares with 160 one week ago.

It is the lowest number of confirmed Covid-19 patients in intensive care for two weeks.

HSE figures also show the number of confirmed Covid-19 patients being treated in hospital was 839 at 8pm on Wednesday evening, a reduction of 2.8% compared with the previous day (Tuesday).

Beaumont hospital was treating the largest number of Covid-19 patients with 111. This is followed by the Mater Hospital with 95 patients, St James Hospital with 79 and Tallaght Hospital with 77 patients.

is_that_so · 17-04-2020 02:41PM

This is from Henry on nursing homes testing challenge.

Chief Clinical Officer with the HSE, Dr Colm Henry said nursing homes are experiencing significant challenges because older people are presenting atypically for Covid-19.

Older people, he said, do not show some of these "cardinal signs" because their immune system is weakened due to frailty or comorbidities.

He cited the example of an older person who is "bedbound, with advanced dementia", to show how the absence of these symptoms make it significantly more difficult to detect Covid-19 in an older person.

maninasia · 17-04-2020 02:41PM

hmmm wrote: »

I'm confused. On the one hand (in this thread) we are told that we should have accepted what China was saying and should have immediately acted on it, and then on the other hand we should have not accepted what China said and the WHO should have investigated it (which they did).

Did you read the WHO report from their team who went to China? It was excellent, and most of what they advised has been correct. It's not their fault Trump decided that the virus was "just going to disappear" and wanted to prioritise the economy.

The WHO have been a shambles.
Not only.did they give the wrong info on human to human transmission, delay announcement of global pandemic, they STILL say wearing a mask is not helpful when even your granny or an eight year old kid could tell it will.cut down the chance of you infecting somebody else.

Complete and utter gob****es !

tobefrank321 · 17-04-2020 02:41PM

Tony EH wrote: »

Ignore what you want. Nobody gives a shit.

But you're still talking bollocks.

The WHO hadn't any real choice but to go with what China was providing them with. If they had simply dismissed what China was saying and called them liars, it may have gone some way to pleasing little shitbags on the web who are only interested in pointing fingers, but it wouldn't have served any other purpose and we would be in a bigger mess now.

China was the patient zero of a potential global pandemic and the WHO needed access to that country to gather their own facts. Facts that were going to be vital in combatting the spread of the virus which little was known about in January or February.

Tony, your internet hardman persona is both laughable and tiresome at this stage. Throwing in four letter words impresses no-one, it actually makes your argument even harder to take seriously.

WHO didn't even need access. They were told by the Taiwanese what the situation was re person to person transmission.

Told in an email.

They ignored the Taiwanese who were telling the truth and went with the Chinese who were spouting lies.

I can do this all day, you're going to end up looking foolish though. You're just digging a deeper hole for yourself.

Want to discuss WHO advice on travel bans from Wuhan and other hotspots next? Another piece of advice from them that turned out to have disastrous consequences.

Iamabeliever · 17-04-2020 02:41PM

The virus was outside China before the world was even aware of it.[/quote]

Could not have said it better

hmmm · 17-04-2020 02:43PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

From rte
The number of confirmed Covid-19 patients in intensive care units was down to 138 at 8pm yesterday evening. This compares with 160 one week ago.

Great news, the ICU figure is the only statistic I'd really pay attention to to tell us how good or bad the outbreak is. The death rate in particular can be heavily skewed if it unfortunately gets into a vulnerable population (e.g. nursing homes, Italy), but doesn't really tell us much about the wider outbreak.

maninasia · 17-04-2020 02:44PM

is_that_so wrote: »

As I said there's research on the travel question : I've linked to it.

Taiwan no new cases. None. Taiwan has 20 million people located off the coast of China.
Because they enforce strict immigration policies now and have done for two months along with quarantining all arrivals for two weeks
New Zealand...The same.

Proof is in success not in failure.

joe_99 · 17-04-2020 02:45PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

From rte
The number of confirmed Covid-19 patients in intensive care units was down to 138 at 8pm yesterday evening. This compares with 160 one week ago.

It is the lowest number of confirmed Covid-19 patients in intensive care for two weeks.

HSE figures also show the number of confirmed Covid-19 patients being treated in hospital was 839 at 8pm on Wednesday evening, a reduction of 2.8% compared with the previous day (Tuesday).

Great news. Very positive. Hopefully others on this thread recognise the great effort behind those low numbers. We are doing good as a nation. Let's keep it going.

smelly sock · 17-04-2020 02:46PM

hmmm wrote: »

Great news, the ICU figure is the only statistic I'd really pay attention to to tell us how good or bad the outbreak is. The death rate in particular can be heavily skewed if it unfortunately gets into a vulnerable population (e.g. nursing homes, Italy), but doesn't really tell us much about the wider outbreak.

Ye it's steadily dropping and we are starting to come out the other end. The "new cases" stat every evening is a red herring. we should really only be paying attention to deaths without an underlying condition and ICU stats.

Let's see where we are in terms of ICU numbers this time next week. My guess would be that we will be below 100.

Tony EH · 17-04-2020 02:47PM

Ficheall wrote: »

China never said they had it wholly contained, and anybody watching China in January would have seen there was a sh*tstorm on the way.

Nobody really KNEW anything for much of January.

The Chinese only told the WHO on December 31st that there were unusual cases of "pneumonia" breaking out in Wuhan.

In the first week of January, they ruled out SARS and announced a new virus called Covid-19.

China announced it's first death on January 11.

China reported it's second death on January 17

China conforms human to human transmission on January 20

The WHO declared the coronavirus a global emergency

Nobody really had a clue what was going to happen in January for a fact, no matter what the Capt. Hindsights might tell you.

smelly sock · 17-04-2020 02:48PM

maninasia wrote: »

Taiwan no new cases. None. Taiwan has 20 million people locates of the coast of China.
Because they enforce strict immigration policies now and have done for two months along with quarantining all arrivals for two weeks
New Zealand...The same.

Proof is in success not in failure.

Much like China I wouldn't believe the numbers out of Taiwan.

NZ and Australia are hard enough to get into at the best of times so this might explain NZ keeping a lid on it. We'd also need to know the amount of testing and the criteria for it though.

Loafing Oaf · 17-04-2020 02:48PM

is_that_so wrote: »

This is from Henry on nursing homes testing challenge.

Do they not just test everybody if they've had even one case at a particular home?

Tony EH · 17-04-2020 02:49PM

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Tony, your internet hardman persona is both laughable and tiresome at this stage. Throwing in four letter words impresses no-one, it actually makes your argument even harder to take seriously.

WHO didn't even need access. They were told by the Taiwanese what the situation was re person to person transmission.

Told in an email.

They ignored the Taiwanese who were telling the truth and went with the Chinese who were spouting lies.

I can do this all day, you're going to end up looking foolish though. You're just digging a deeper hole for yourself.

Want to discuss WHO advice on travel bans from Wuhan and other hotspots next? Another piece of advice from them that turned out to have disastrous consequences.

I've no interest in your bollocks talk.

tobefrank321 · 17-04-2020 02:49PM

They likely don't send most nursing home residents to ICU. Of course your ICU numbers will be down if you don't bother treating the very sickest and dying.

ICU numbers down, deaths up. That's the story here. The two don't really don't add up.

Hard to see positives here if deaths keep rising. Maybe they could actually try and save some of the nursing home patients, and could have tried those in Port Laoise.

maninasia · 17-04-2020 02:50PM

Tony EH wrote: »

Nobody really KNEW anything for much of January.

The Chinese only told the WHO on December 31st that there were unusual cases of "pneumonia" breaking out in Wuhan.

In the first week of January, they ruled out SARS and announced a new virus called Covid-19.

China announced it's first death on January 11.

China reported it's second death on January 17

China conforms human to human transmission on January 20

The WHO declared the coronavirus a global emergency

Nobody really had a clue what was going to happen in January for a fact, no matter what the Capt. Hindsights might tell you.

They knew they suppressed the information , shutting up the doctors . Then the central government suppressed the Hubei govt from announcing it until ‚Jan 21st. They knew about it since the start of Jan that it was human to human transmission, at least .

smelly sock · 17-04-2020 02:50PM

tobefrank321 wrote: »

They likely don't send most nursing home residents to ICU. Of course your ICU numbers will be down if you don't bother treating the very sickest and dying.

ICU numbers down, deaths up. That's the story here. The two don't really don't add up.

Seriously? That's BS. I can guarantee you that if someone in a nursing home needs ICU admission they get it.

Tony EH · 17-04-2020 02:52PM

maninasia wrote: »

They knew they suppressed the information , shutting up the doctors . Then the central government suppressed the Hubei govt from announcing it until ‚Jan 21st. They knew about it since the start of Jan that it was human to human transmission, at least .

So if the WHO went around calling China liars and saying they were covering up information about the coronavirus, what good would that have done?

smelly sock · 17-04-2020 02:52PM

What time is Holohan on at today?

is_that_so · 17-04-2020 02:53PM

maninasia wrote: »

Taiwan no new cases. None. Taiwan has 20 million people located off the coast of China.
Because they enforce strict immigration policies now and have done for two months along with quarantining all arrivals for two weeks
New Zealand...The same.

Proof is in success not in failure.

Taiwan use lots of countermeasures as do NZ and other countries, measures shown to be extremely effective at a time like this. The literature suggests little to no effect from travel bans. At most they might delay it by a bit but you are free to believe what you want.

igCorcaigh · 17-04-2020 02:54PM

Tony EH wrote: »

Nobody really KNEW anything for much of January.

The Chinese only told the WHO on December 31st that there were unusual cases of "pneumonia" breaking out in Wuhan.

In the first week of January, they ruled out SARS and announced a new virus called Covid-19.

China announced it's first death on January 11.

China reported it's second death on January 17

China conforms human to human transmission on January 20

The WHO declared the coronavirus a global emergency

Nobody really had a clue what was going to happen in January for a fact, no matter what the Capt. Hindsights might tell you.

Yup.

I remember the H5N1 bird flu scare years back. There was confirmed h2h transmission in Turkey, but the transmission chains weren't sustained.

There was a bit of a media focus but no real action taken AFAIR.

And H5N1 had/has the potential to wipe out a huge part of humanity.

Covid19 Part XV - 15,251 in ROI (610 deaths) 2,645 in NI (194 deaths) (19/04) Read OP

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