Covid19 Part XV - 15,251 in ROI (610 deaths) 2,645 in NI (194 deaths) (19/04) Read OP

Mental Mickey wrote: »

Wtf is Trump on about now lol

froog wrote: »

Some states can open as early as tommorow. Sweet jesus

tobefrank321 wrote: »

I think you'll find Stephen is of the laissez faire brigade when it comes to borders. He still thinks there's no-one coming in and those who do come in don't represent a danger of new infections.

When we are in lockdown 2 years from now he'll stll be beating that drum. Him and Simon Harris.

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

He said it was "very smart"

(no really, he did)

Maestro85 wrote: »

Not to be callous about it as I know there are lives on the line but let the world watch as this backfires so other countries can plan accordingly after seeing the fallout of it.

ShineOn7 wrote: »

From the Redit user again who has an abundance of stats and info. I'm going to take a deeper dive into their post history tomorrow.

They've been on Reddit 6 years with over 24,000 upvotes (the equivalent of Boards thanks system). All words below the line are theirs. There's some cautiously optimistic stuff in here. I've highlighted in bold and red the stuff that stood out most to me;


______________________________________________


New Cases: 629 (Germany: 95)
Total Cases: 13271
New Death: 43
Total Deaths: 486 (One death de-notified)
Male: 22
Female: 21
Median Age: 84
Underlying conditions: 27

Of the death

• Deaths: 486
• Hospitalised + died in hospital: 298 (61%)
• Died in ICU: 44
• Underlying conditions: 403
• Male: 283
• Female: 203
• Median age: 82
• Mean age: 69
• Age Range: 23-105

Of 290 in ICU

• Remain in ICU: 156
• Discharged: 90
• Died: 44
• Underlying conditions: 238
• Median Age: 60

As of Tuesday 14th

• Cases: 12425
• In Hospital: 2026
• In ICU: 284
• Deaths: 480
• Clusters: 425 - Account for 2451 cases
• Median age infected: 48
• Healthcare workers: 25%

Clusters

• Clusters In Community: 254 - 4 additional from yesterday occurred in nursing homes
• Residential Homes: 163
• 302 deaths in community residential settings
• Nursing Homes: 253 deaths in nursing homes

Modelling with Philip Nolan

• Models are useful and powerful, but the output depends on the assumptions. We have many assumptions - proportion of people who are asymptomatic, and data used to calibrate the model. German results are being fed back in to help recalculate. They are good for making decisions, but shouldn't read too much into them Because we are constantly re-calibrating based off of the data, the numbers will change every time the model is presented.

• Most results back from Germany, and backdated into graphs

• Cases were growing at 33% a day (cumulatively) at the beginning. Now, while its not flat, growing very slowly.

• Hospitalised cases growing very slowly.

• ICU rate of growth is also very slow

• Number of people dying increases, but the rate of growth is decreasing. They are watching this number very closely.

• As modellers, need to look at all of the data we have, not just confirmed cases. Overall seeing slow growth Percentage growth in total number of cases, against previous day, averaged over 5 days, is about 5% growth rate. Number of new cases per day is noisier.

• Since 3rd April, growth rate of new cases with German cases backdated, growth rate is very close to 0.

• Number of people reported to be in ICU has been stable since 3rd April. One would imagine that is beginning to decline at this point.

• Final indication we have of the growth rate of the virus is the reproduction number. We have 4 ways to calculate this. All 4 showed that R0 = 0.7-1. Needs to be below 1 to show that we are in control of the virus.

• We can compare the R0 against a number of different European countries - model knows when we imposed different social distancing measures.

• In early stages of epidemic, R0 = 2-4. Immediately after early interventions (28 March), R0 = 1.5-3. High confidence now that R0 < 1

• We need to be very careful that if we relax measures, that we don't go back to R0 = 1.5-3

• Unmitigated epidemic would have had 120,000 infections by this week (Using R0=3.7)

• If we had reduced to R0=2.4, we would have still seen a huge number of cases - approximately 70,000 cases at the peak. Would have approx had 7800 new cases today. Approx 17000 deaths

• At the reduced rate, low R0, peak would be 5000 cases, and would see virus pushed out to August

• Where are we now? We are hopeful/ confident that our R0 is below one. Model predicts we are in peak now, and will reduce. In reality, things are slightly different. Prudent to take a look at the actual data, rather than rely on the data. We need experience to tell us that measures are working, not just the model telling us that. We need more data.

• What might happen if measures are eased around May 5th?

• Most optimistic - R0 = 0.8, cases reduce near the end of the month

• Relax measures for 3 weeks, and reimpose if needed - THIS IS JUST MODEL, NOT WHAT HE'S SUGGESTING

• If more relaxed measures are containing the disease (R0=1.1) we will see a small increase in numbers
• R=1.2, still managing. Reintroducing measures will suppress disease
• R=1.6 (every second person infects 2 people) would see a significant peak at this point. Reimpose numbers to gain control
• R0=>2, we get a very sudden and unmanageable spike on disease. Clearly wouldn't leave relaxed measure in place for 3 weeks and allow that to happen
• Whatever happens after May 5th needs to be managed very carefully

• Symptoms in elderly may not be the same symptoms in the young - cough or fever may not be present, but lack of appetite is

froog wrote: »

Some states can open as early as tommorow. Sweet jesus

RobertKK wrote: »

https://twitter.com/CNBC/status/1250895027838033922?s=20

Hopefully...