Covid19 Part XV - 15,251 in ROI (610 deaths) 2,645 in NI (194 deaths) (19/04) Read OP

Blanco100 · 16-04-2020 11:32AM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

551 deaths and over 5,100 new cases reported in Spain.

Deaths up a bit on yesterday but new cases continue to accelerate up from 3,000 on Tuesday.

No idea where you are getting this from!

fin12 · 16-04-2020 11:33AM

https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/the-numbers-are-being-fudged-says-nurse-who-brands-testing-regime-an-omnishambles-994236.html

Testing regime a shambles.

Iamabeliever · 16-04-2020 11:34AM

Azatadine wrote: »

Its one thing that should always be made clear. Asymptomatic versus pre-symptomatic. Big difference.

Why would you get tested pre symptoms

is_that_so · 16-04-2020 11:35AM

fin12 wrote: »

https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/the-numbers-are-being-fudged-says-nurse-who-brands-testing-regime-an-omnishambles-994236.html

Testing regime a shambles.

Ah, good old Mary, has the finger on the pulse!

normanoffside · 16-04-2020 11:36AM

wakka12 wrote: »

Important to note that not showing symptoms at the time of testing does not mean those people will not later develop symptoms, especially given an incubation period of a 5-7 days or more

Also important to note that the other 63% may have actually already recovered or been immune to infection.
Given that it’s a homeless shelter it’s unlikely everyone had not been exposed to it.

John.Icy · 16-04-2020 11:37AM

Different sites report different for Spain. They have two updates, morning and night. Worldometers had 6,599 new cases for Spain yesterday. They count morning + night. Other sites add together night + morning of the next day as the total (I tihnk BNO had been doing this to name one but they only ran the 2,157 number today on their tally). Spain added 2,157 this morning so presumably Kermits figures is that + lasts night release.

stephenjmcd · 16-04-2020 11:37AM

https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/world/who-wants-draconian-lockdowns-to-end-as-soon-as-possible-994345.html

wakka12 · 16-04-2020 11:38AM

Iamabeliever wrote: »

Why would you get tested pre symptoms

Well most people wouldnt, but in the case of the Boston homeless shelter they tested everybody regardless of symptoms or lack there of

growleaves · 16-04-2020 11:38AM

Should We Have Trusted Expert Epidemiological Models?

Relying on [Neil Ferguson and his Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team's] model, they insisted that “optimal mitigation policies…might reduce peak healthcare demand by 2/3 and deaths by half. However, the resulting mitigated epidemic would still likely result in hundreds of thousands of deaths and health systems…being overwhelmed many times over” [and] even if all patients were able to be treated, we predict there would still be in the order of 250,000 deaths in GB, and 1.1-1.2 million in the US.”

These figures translate into about 14,000 deaths per day in GB and 56,000 per day in the US at the peak. Per day! These numbers are astounding, and it’s shocking anybody swallowed them. Perhaps those that did, did so because the predictions were presented in terms of so-many deaths per 100,000, and not in plain numbers.

The business-as-usual projections are so far removed from experience, though, that anyone not invested in the model should have doubted it instantly. Here’s why.

The Spanish flu of 1918 was a horrific event. It befell a world fresh from a global war, one with poor medical care, aspirin poisoning, shortages of every kind. Between 17 and 58 million were killed worldwide.

The CDC estimated that about 675,000 Americans died, when the population in the US was about 106 million. This makes 637 per 100,000 dead of Spanish flu in the US.

Imperial college predicted 670 per 100,000 would die of coronavirus.

When the COVID-19 Response team constructed their model on 16 March there were only “6,470 deaths confirmed worldwide” and 97 in the US. Yet, somehow, in the presence of modern medicine and these low figures, coronavirus was predicted to be deadlier than the Spanish flu.

Rvsmmnps · 16-04-2020 11:38AM

Azatadine wrote: »

Its one thing that should always be made clear. Asymptomatic versus pre-symptomatic. Big difference.

Did they find sick people on the street?

ricero · 16-04-2020 11:38AM

fin12 wrote: »

https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/the-numbers-are-being-fudged-says-nurse-who-brands-testing-regime-an-omnishambles-994236.html

Testing regime a shambles.

****ing hell this is a disaster. The government indecision and lack of decisiveness has ****ed this country one last time.

Longing · 16-04-2020 11:39AM

Still waiting Day 20.

Iamabeliever · 16-04-2020 11:40AM

wakka12 wrote: »

Well most people wouldnt, but in the case of the Boston homeless shelter they tested everybody regardless of symptoms or lack there of

Hmm doesn't make sense unless they were also performing some sort of antibody test too

D.Q · 16-04-2020 11:40AM

ricero wrote: »

****ing hell this is a disaster. The government indecision and lack of decisiveness has ****ed this country one last time.

So dramatic.

Bubbaclaus · 16-04-2020 11:43AM

fin12 wrote: »

https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/the-numbers-are-being-fudged-says-nurse-who-brands-testing-regime-an-omnishambles-994236.html

Testing regime a shambles.

Anecdotes from a nurse being treated as breaking news?

xabi · 16-04-2020 11:43AM

Rvsmmnps wrote: »

Did they find sick people on the street?

Read the link provided.

Laois_Man · 16-04-2020 11:44AM

Seen lots of talk as to whether or not a recovered Covid19 person can get reinfected. The definitive answer is still that there is no definitive answer.

Per CNN

A total of 141 people who had apparently recovered from Covid-19 have tested positive again, South Korea's Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC) said on Thursday.

KCDC deputy director Kwon Joon-wook said the agency did not know what caused the people to retest positive and was investigating.

Most experts think it's unlikely that somebody will be re-infected for the coronavirus soon after recovering. It's possible that issues with testing – or varying amounts of viral RNA in the body, which the tests look for – could explain why people tested positive after testing negative.

Kwon also said that the government is studying cultivated samples from the patients to determine whether the cases could be contagious. Kwon said the study will take about two weeks from today.

“Our KCDC workers are working day and night to collect samples and conduct studies,” Kwon said

MrMusician18 · 16-04-2020 11:44AM

fin12 wrote: »

https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/the-numbers-are-being-fudged-says-nurse-who-brands-testing-regime-an-omnishambles-994236.html

Testing regime a shambles.

What awful reporting. One anonymous source, with an opinion based on one community hospital in the Midlands. When will the examiner interview me?

Mary could be a clown or she could simply be a person with a grudge.

16-04-2020 11:44AM

Rvsmmnps wrote: »

Totals from all illnesses effected by various strains of corona virus will show increase come the end of the year

Which strains? The 4 that cause 10 to 15% of common colds? SARS? MERS? SARS COV2? Because they are the only known human coronavirus and only 1 of those is currently endemic and causing large numbers of deaths

Kermit.de.frog · 16-04-2020 11:44AM

ZX7R wrote: »

Spain have only reported 2157 new cases
And 318 new deaths today April 16

This is incorrect. These are the figures today (as I stated earlier).

https://twitter.com/BloombergAsia/status/1250748154208825344

551 fatalities and 5,183 new cases.

16-04-2020 11:46AM

gabeeg wrote: »

To be fair, Trump has history of closing borders with countries for purely xenophobic and racist reasons.
I think it was the same in this case - he was just doing something xenophobic to pander to his base, and accidentally bought the country time to fight the virus.

Time which he subsequently squandered. The idiot.

could not have put it better myself

wakka12 · 16-04-2020 11:46AM

Deaths dropping in Iran slightly, two consecutive days of deaths below 100, the first two days for deaths to drop below 100 in about 5 or 6 weeks

Azatadine · 16-04-2020 11:46AM

Iamabeliever wrote: »

Why would you get tested pre symptoms

Asymptomatic may have the virus but not show symptoms at any stage but pre-symptomatic may have the virus and not currently show symptoms but could go on to develop them.

Laois_Man · 16-04-2020 11:49AM

That Irish times article is a bit ridiculous

She said: “So the 1,500 people announced as new cases last week, with those tests having happened in March, we were dealing with those people in hospital two weeks ago. And still we were told that the numbers are low. It’s really bad. What the public is being told isn’t true.”

It was never hidden that there was a backlog of tests awaiting results! :rolleyes:

growleaves · 16-04-2020 11:50AM

Leo lifts the lockdown:

16-04-2020 11:51AM

tobefrank321 wrote: »

This really is one of the most important studies on covid 19 so far imo.

https://www.wbur.org/commonhealth/2020/04/14/coronavirus-boston-homeless-testing

146 homeless in a shelter showed up positive, the vast majority asymptomatic.

Its likely a small number got it in the community and then spread it widely in the centre. You'd wonder why so many are asymptomatic, was it due to a reduced viral load. It also appears to counter the argument that there is a genetic element to why some people get a severe reaction to covid 19 and some don't.

On the otherhand, you'd imagine there are a large number of smokers and drinkers among the homeless, but obesity would not be a major issue.

With no hope of a vaccine any time soon, if we could reproduce the Boston homeless shelter outcome with a large number of people being asymptomatic this might be one way forward. Its not like we have many other options.

While their lifestyles may not be good, the homeless probably have a good degree of base fitness due to spending a lot of time on their feet, walking. I wonder how VO2 max for asymptomatic / mild / severe cases compares

Drumpot · 16-04-2020 11:52AM

gabeeg wrote: »

To be fair, Trump has history of closing borders with countries for purely xenophobic and racist reasons.
I think it was the same in this case - he was just doing something xenophobic to pander to his base, and accidentally bought the country time to fight the virus.

Time which he subsequently squandered. The idiot.

I agree completely with this narrative.

In terms of trying to work out a persons motive or reasons for doing something , which is more likely. That Donald Trump was ahead of the world curve in taking decisive action with regards to China but horribly behind the curve in everything else to do with this virus. Or he opportunistically closed down planes to/from China for some other reason.

Considering he is a compulsive liar, that his presidency is defined with him basically trying to chastise those who disagree with him, bullying those who question his actions and he regularly employes tactics to deflect attention away from his Mistakes, I’d say any logical , non partisan person can work out which is more likely to be the case with regards to Trumps motives that led to his China call in January actually helping...

Drumpot · 16-04-2020 11:55AM

Deleted User wrote: »

While their lifestyles may not be good, the homeless probably have a good degree of base fitness due to spending a lot of time on their feet, walking. I wonder how VO2 max for asymptomatic / mild / severe cases compares

I’d also wonder if the “healthier homeless” people actually have stronger immune systems to the comparative pampered housed people. Being exposed to more germs and tough conditions may increase your chances of becoming ill but on the flip side you would also think they may alternatively harden you more to these sort of situations.

tobefrank321 · 16-04-2020 11:55AM

rossie1977 wrote: »

Biden never said that. Biden said stopping flights and building a wall won't stop the virus which is correct especially after horse had bolted. Italy were the first country on Earth to ban flights from China...

The xenophobic/fear mongering had nothing to do with China, that was something else and used by right wing pundits and Trumps campaign ads https://www.factcheck.org/2020/04/trump-campaigns-misleading-ad-attacking-biden-on-china/

Taiwan viewed it differently and stopping air travel was an important weapon in their fight against covid 19. Did it stop the spread to Taiwan? Of course not. But it massively slowed down the spread there to manageable levels, where they could test the limited numbers quickly, isolate them quickly and contact trace quickly. The result was 395 cases and 6 deaths. They wouldn't even allow travellers off flights from Wuhan until they had at least been temperature screened.

A huge difference to the laissez faire attitude in the rest of the world where you could exit through airport arrivals with no checks.

You eventually stop this by slowing it down to manageable levels. Taiwan certainly didn't take the view it was unstoppable. They threw everything at it including before they even had a problem.

16-04-2020 11:55AM

bekker wrote: »

A recipe for blinker thinking, and unbalanced decision making.

What is necessary in a minister is the ability to seek advice from a variety of sources, balance that advice in line with his/her responsibilities, and make decisions. Then ensure that the policies developed by his/her ministry is consistent with those decisions and implement in full without the deviations desired by his officials, and there are always deviations desired by officials.

Ministers are in a constant struggle to have funds allocated, encourage/press officials to go beyond their silos, and ensure co-operation and co-ordination across departments. An individual possessing the qualities to implement the forgoing is what is required, irrespective of formal training or experience.

From a historical perspective ministers who have been put in charge of ministries allied to their speciality have a less than stellar record.

I think you will find no examples in my hypothetical list of people assigned to their field.

Covid19 Part XV - 15,251 in ROI (610 deaths) 2,645 in NI (194 deaths) (19/04) Read OP

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