Covid19 Part XV - 15,251 in ROI (610 deaths) 2,645 in NI (194 deaths) (19/04) Read OP

JRant · 14-04-2020 06:48PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

If sporting events are allowed later in the year they will be behind closed doors as Germany is now considering. That kinda goes without saying.

Audiences wont be allowed any where in Europe any time soon.

That makes sense and in all honesty will probably last for the remainder of this year.

stephenjmcd · 14-04-2020 06:48PM

Jim_Hodge wrote: »

WHO said today that sporting events and concerts were unlikely for 18 months.

Where did they say this ? Said the opposite on radio 1 this morning

JRant · 14-04-2020 06:49PM

Mervyn Skidmore wrote: »

The government have said that they are making decisions based on the CMO recommendations so you're getting it from the horses mouth.

And that's my main gripe with it. He should only be part of the discussion, not the decision maker. Last time I checked he was an unelected individual.

MrMusician18 · 14-04-2020 06:49PM

JRant wrote: »

Very sad to hear of another 41 deaths today.

Listening to the CMO I thought he overstepped the mark when asked about sporting events. He was very unequivocal that nine would be taking place until a vaccine was readily available. Now that may well be his opinion but it's up to the government to make these decisions, not the CMO.

Sport well be the last thing to come back. It's a purely pleasure pursuit which has people congregating.

From a virus containment and economic point of view it ticks all the wrong boxes. You might not have liked what he said, but he was being honest.

14-04-2020 06:50PM

caveat emptor wrote: »

Horrific to think. Very strange. Might go some way in explaining the high viral load affect. If viral load great enough to overcome tcells then downward trajectory. The reactivation stuff in Korea might be so far fetched either. That’s one nasty spike protein.

“The gene behind the fusion function in Sars-CoV-2 was not found in other coronaviruses in human or animals.”

What sort of mess has China left the world with.

Deeper Blue · 14-04-2020 06:50PM

froog wrote: »

this is some caligula sh1t right here.

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1250063051182747651

It's always seemed odd to me that Trump is constantly tweeting things like this, it comes off as very childish and I'm amazed it hasn't been nipped in the bud by somebody in the White House at this stage

Rvsmmnps · 14-04-2020 06:51PM

https://www2.hse.ie/conditions/coronavirus/testing.html#test-centre

Does anyone know what the procedure is like,has anyone been tested?

beerguts · 14-04-2020 06:51PM

Would any poster be able to post a histogram of all deaths that have occurred in Ireland from Covid 19. The daily HSE reporting do give the mean and median age of death, but for me I'd like to see the actual distribution over the age ranges.

Mervyn Skidmore · 14-04-2020 06:52PM

JRant wrote: »

And that's my main gripe with it. He should only be part of the discussion, not the decision maker. Last time I checked he was an unelected individual.

That can work both ways though. Look at Trump and Fauci for example.

shocksy · 14-04-2020 06:52PM

JRant wrote: »

Now that may well be his opinion but it's up to the government to make these decisions, not the CMO.

Technically it is his decision to make, along with his team.

They report to the government with their opinion.

The government don't have to follow their instructions but they most likely always will. It would be very silly for a government to do the opposite of what they say. If things got crazy bad for not following their guidelines they would never live it down.

caveat emptor · 14-04-2020 06:52PM

cnocbui wrote: »

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3079443/coronavirus-could-target-immune-system-targeting-protective

Very interesting. Here is the corresponding paper in nature for those interested.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41423-020-0424-9

blade1 · 14-04-2020 06:53PM

Unfortunately some people are never going to get the message.
https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/hong-kong-economy/article/3079419/coronavirus-hong-kong-residents-flock-beaches-and

froog · 14-04-2020 06:54PM

NDWC wrote: »

It's always seemed odd to me that Trump is constantly tweeting things like this, it comes off as very childish and I'm amazed it hasn't been nipped in the bud by somebody in the White House at this stage

he surrounds himself with yes men. anyone who doesn't fawn over him with praise constantly is immediately fired. he runs the white house exactly like he runs his company.

Rvsmmnps · 14-04-2020 06:56PM

froog wrote: »

he surrounds himself with yes men. anyone who doesn't fawn over him with praise constantly is immediately fired. he runs the white house exactly like he runs his company.

I think the root of the gripe between them was the issue with the "5 ventilators" in the nyc hospital. Thats what the mayor claimed,yet there were 100s of ventilators in storage.So they were trying to make out it was a lack of care from the president above.The mayor was questioned on it.

14-04-2020 07:00PM

caveat emptor wrote: »

Very interesting. Here is the corresponding paper in nature for those interested.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41423-020-0424-9

So does this mean we could have a highly infectious HIV like illness on our hands.

Coyote · 14-04-2020 07:05PM

Rvsmmnps wrote: »

https://www2.hse.ie/conditions/coronavirus/testing.html#test-centre

Does anyone know what the procedure is like,has anyone been tested?

Hi Rvsmmnps

what questions do you have?
they have given a good guide to what happens, the first part will be when you get there just window down the windows 1"they will tell you a spot to part, it was not busy when i did mine a few weeks ago just after the updated guidelines. then someone will come out and give you some stuff and ask some questions then 10-15 min later they take the sample.
then then follow whats given below, they ask you to do your best to not cough when they take the throat swab as they need to be right in front of your face.
the nose swab is not nice but it's OK, it feels like it's gone too far but that's normal, I would make sure to have cleaned your nose beforehand make life easier

Coyote

Park and remain in your car.
A healthcare worker will approach you.
You'll be given a mask to put on, they will explain to you what will happen, ask you some questions and you'll be taken into the test centre.
You'll be asked to wash your hands properly.
Healthcare staff will take some personal details from you including your phone number. This is so you can be contacted with your results.
You'll be asked to blow your nose into a tissue and bin it in a secure bin.
A healthcare worker will take a sample from inside your mouth and nose using a swab. This will be sent to a lab for testing.
You will then need to drive home and remain in self-isolation

Ficheall · 14-04-2020 07:06PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

https://twitter.com/datavizireland/status/1250114533697490946?s=19

https://twitter.com/datavizireland/status/1250114268835577857?s=19

Both good stats again. People need to look beyond the case numbers and actually look at the statistics behind the figures.

"actually look at the statistics behind the figures"...

Well, there certainly is a positive slant, so to speak, to those graphs.. In actual numbers (taken with thanks from Coyote's spreadsheet), so that the increases aren't being obfuscated in percentages growth on previous days' numbers:

People newly admitted to hospital each day:
Mar 24 31
Mar 25 35
Mar 26 40
Mar 27 45
Mar 28 44
Mar 29 30
Mar 30 44
Mar 31 49
Apr 1 33
Apr 2 61
Apr 3 63
Apr 4 50
Apr 5 59
Apr 6 55
Apr 7 52
Apr 8 55
Apr 9 75
Apr 10 225
Apr 11 126
Apr 12 109
Apr 13 149
Apr 14 123

extra gravy · 14-04-2020 07:07PM

niallo27 wrote: »

How long before we become completed decentized to the numbers dead. For me its just a number I wait to check every day. Crazy the way it ****s with your head.

https://twitter.com/BBCPM/status/1248649465201819649?s=19

I know what you mean. This might help with that - remembering the dead as more than just statistics. Found it quite moving. Apologies if posted earlier, haven't had time to read through all the posts.

stephenjmcd · 14-04-2020 07:10PM

Ficheall wrote: »

"actually look at the statistics behind the figures"...

Well, there certainly is a positive slant, so to speak, to those graphs.. In actual numbers (taken with thanks from Coyote's spreadsheet), so that the increases aren't being obfuscated in percentages growth on previous days' numbers:

People newly admitted to hospital each day:
Mar 24 31
Mar 25 35
Mar 26 40
Mar 27 45
Mar 28 44
Mar 29 30
Mar 30 44
Mar 31 49
Apr 1 33
Apr 2 61
Apr 3 63
Apr 4 50
Apr 5 59
Apr 6 55
Apr 7 52
Apr 8 55
Apr 9 75
Apr 10 225
Apr 11 126
Apr 12 109
Apr 13 149
Apr 14 123

Thats the point though the numbers are quite steady especially in ICU. As has been said the lower the percentage increase the more the curve is flattening so its not a positive slant, it is a postive.

Our hosptial system could have been overrun by now, its not.

The point is people are reading way too much into the new case numbers.

caveat emptor · 14-04-2020 07:12PM

beerguts wrote: »

Would any poster be able to post a histogram of all deaths that have occurred in Ireland from Covid 19. The daily HSE reporting do give the mean and median age of death, but for me I'd like to see the actual distribution over the age ranges.

Here's the data. Not possible to do median or mean as it is bucketed.
But histogram possible.

Ficheall · 14-04-2020 07:12PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Thats the point though the numbers are quite steady especially in ICU.
The point is people are reading way too much into the new case numbers.

They are increasing quite steadily.

JPCN1 · 14-04-2020 07:13PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Singapore reports 334 new cases and 1 new death.

It still surprises because everyone was use to Singapore having this completely under control and just like that...

I gather primarily Bangladeshi construction workers who live in cramped dormitories. Poor folk.

stephenjmcd · 14-04-2020 07:14PM

Ficheall wrote: »

They are increasing quite steadily.

Do you actually understand how the curve flattens ??

Of course there increasing, the whole point of flattening the curve is that it's not a sudden increase and the cases are pushed out over time.

RebelButtMunch · 14-04-2020 07:15PM

JPCN1 wrote: »

I gather primarily Bangladeshi construction workers who live in cramped dormitories. Poor folk.

They depend so much on immigrant labour there. I wonder what the repercussions of this will be

14-04-2020 07:18PM

As expected, with the addition of the German figures, we past 10k yesterday. Today an additional 832 were added for a total of 11,479 with 406 deaths (now included in the chart below).

The r value is not truly reflective of the current rate of infection due to the German figures, but I decided to leave them in rather than try to figure some way of including them but not disrupting the main model.

Also, its difficult now to project correctly where we'll be given the disruption of the German figures to the model. I was going to track these separately to preserve the model, but it'll balance out in a few days once the last of those are accounted for. They need to be included in the overall figures anyway, so it makes more sense to just add them to the regular daily totals.

With that in mind, the projections below should be taken with a grain of salt.

The same caveat applies to the projections for the daily reported cases below

Finally, I spent a bit more time on the national, county-by-county breakdown, so that is detailed below. The blue bars represent the total cases for each county, with the orange line representing the rate per 10k population. Its also divided by province for whoever it was that mentioned that (sorry, the name escapes me).

We are now at 90k tests and according to report, the backlog should be cleared by the weekend meaning we are very close to a 24 hr turnaround for test results. That will be a big step towards easing the lockdown. The big risk will be in easing the lockdown too early. Right now Austria & Denmark are gradually lifting their lockdown's and to be honest, I think its still too early.

In my opinion, in order to return to normality, the following will be needed

A max of a 24 hr turnaround for test results. Same-day would be better.
Wide scale testing where clustering is difficult or unavoidable e.g. schools
Masks to become a requirement
Social distancing remains
Large scale events still on hold
A general acceptance among the population that in order to return to normality, some people are going to die who otherwise would not have if we remained in lockdown.

The easing of restrictions will come sooner or later, but personally I would not like to see it happening until we are comfortably below an r value of 0.95, at least 0.9 but I don't know how feasible that is.

Next update Friday

Ficheall · 14-04-2020 07:18PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Do you actually understand how the curve flattens ??

Of course there increasing, the whole point of flattening the curve is that it's not a sudden increase and the cases are pushed out over time.

I do, yes, thanks. My issue is that visually the graph suggests things are improving much more quickly than they are.

caveat emptor · 14-04-2020 07:19PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Thats the point though the numbers are quite steady especially in ICU. As has been said the lower the percentage increase the more the curve is flattening so its not a positive slant, it is a postive.

Our hosptial system could have been overrun by now, its not.

The point is people are reading way too much into the new case numbers.

Yeah but we are supposed to be flattening the curve. Its going up to the right, it doesn't look very flat. Taking the derivative and saying it's decreasing is the same as say the car is still accelerating but not as quickly as it was accelerating. It is still going faster however?

The positive spin is approaching religious fanaticism. I've no doubt it will slow. I'm just not going to say it is until it has.

stephenjmcd · 14-04-2020 07:21PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

As expected, with the addition of the German figures, we past 10k yesterday. Today an additional 832 were added for a total of 11,479 with 406 deaths (now included in the chart below).

The r value is not truly reflective of the current rate of infection due to the German figures, but I decided to leave them in rather than try to figure some way of including them but not disrupting the main model.

Also, its difficult now to project correctly where we'll be given the disruption of the German figures to the model. I was going to track these separately to preserve the model, but it'll balance out in a few days once the last of those are accounted for. They need to be included in the overall figures anyway, so it makes more sense to just add them to the regular daily totals.

With that in mind, the projections below should be taken with a grain of salt.

The same caveat applies to the projections for the daily reported cases below

Finally, I spent a bit more time on the national, county-by-county breakdown, so that is detailed below. The blue bars represent the total cases for each county, with the orange line representing the rate per 10k population. Its also divided by province for whoever it was that mentioned that (sorry, the name escapes me).

We are now at 90k tests and according to report, the backlog should be cleared by the weekend meaning we are very close to a 24 hr turnaround for test results. That will be a big step towards easing the lockdown. The big risk will be in easing the lockdown too early. Right now Austria & Denmark are gradually lifting their lockdown's and to be honest, I think its still too early.

In my opinion, in order to return to normality, the following will be needed
A max of a 24 hr turnaround for test results. Same-day would be better.

Wide scale testing where clustering is difficult or unavoidable e.g. schools

Masks to become a requirement

Social distancing remains

Large scale events still on hold

A general acceptance among the population that in order to return to normality, some people are going to die who otherwise would not have if we remained in lockdown.

The easing of restrictions will come sooner or later, but personally I would not like to see it happening until we are comfortably below an r value of 0.95, at least 0.9 but I don't know how feasible that is.

Next update Friday

Excellent graphs thanks for that.

With the R value personally I would like to see that lower, potentially 0.6 - 0.7 if that was at all possible. 0.6 is the R value in Denmark today when they reopened some shops etc. But if it got to .9 that would be great too given where we started

caveat emptor · 14-04-2020 07:23PM

Deleted User wrote: »

So does this mean we could have a highly infectious HIV like illness on our hands.

I don't know.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I_know_that_I_know_nothing

JPCN1 · 14-04-2020 07:23PM

RebelButtMunch wrote: »

They depend so much on immigrant labour there. I wonder what the repercussions of this will be

They have way better pay over the poor sods in Qatar at least. FIFA just another discredited world body.

By the same token in the 50's in Kilburn a lot of Irish labourers suffered the same conditions and were/are largely forgotten now... those that still live

Covid19 Part XV - 15,251 in ROI (610 deaths) 2,645 in NI (194 deaths) (19/04) Read OP

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