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Covid19 Part XV - 15,251 in ROI (610 deaths) 2,645 in NI (194 deaths) (19/04) Read OP

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  • #3002
    ACitizenErased
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,749 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    paddythere wrote: »
    But they're not being announced as new test/cases. You're adding a number to the overall cases- I dont see how that is skewing the figures
    Adding to the total and not reporting them as new is exactly the way it should be done. People are reporting them as new tests, that's the point. It's giving a false narrative.


  • #3003
    outsourced_ire
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 292 ✭✭outsourced_ire


    ACitizenErased wrote: »
    The CMO showed exactly this in the press conference. There's no spikes whatsoever in growth.

    Thanks, fair enough. I didn't catch it today. Will try and see if that material is available to have a look somewhere.


  • #3004
    Stheno
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 51,690 Mod ✭✭✭✭Stheno


    JP Liz V1 wrote: »
    I guess maybe my understanding of flattening the curve is wrong as with lockdown restrictions I was expecting decreasing positive cases and less deaths by now but from what I see both are still high in numbers and we haven't hit the peak surge

    3 outbreaks in prison yet we were told they were case free previously
    My very simple understanding of flattening the curve is that day on day cases are roughly the same so the growth flattens instead of increasing compared to previous days

    It also means the overall increase as a percentage of total cases decreases

    You could take reassurance from the briefing where they said we have not seen a big jump in demand for ICU its static the past week


  • #3005
    Rob A. Bank
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,842 ✭✭✭Rob A. Bank


    Finnish researchers, using a super computer, modelled a scenario where a person coughs in an aisle between shelves, like those found in grocery stores; and taking into consideration the ventilation. Aalto University, VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland and Finnish Meteorological Institute each carried out the modelling independently, using the same starting conditions.



    Wear masks when you are out and about !


  • #3006
    fullstop
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,791 ✭✭✭✭fullstop


    donfers wrote: »
    Per capita deaths and cases we are top 10 which is disgraceful considering we are an island nation, don’t have a dense population and most live in houses. We just seem to be making it up as we go along, see what other countries do, a bit of a, a bit of b and a bit of c, look earnest during press conferences, prepare west wing style speeches that say nothing but sound great. Spin will not beat the virus.
    We're not, and likely not even close.

    Ireland is reporting 10 more deaths from Covid-19 than Ecuador. Have a look at this video from BBC and tell me if you believe that for a second.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-latin-america-52234127/coronavirus-ecuador-struggles-to-bury-its-victims

    You can be damn sure there are many more poorer countries as well that are not even reporting a fraction of the deaths occurring, just dumped in a grave and forgotten about.

    Even the UK are only reporting hospital deaths, and totting up the extras at the end of the week (sometimes). German colleagues fo mine have said that there are doubts there about the reporting of cases and the authorities being selective with numbers - they're seen as one of the gold standards.

    It would be great if everyone could just pull together here for a few weeks and try to beat this thing, instead of the constant "well our government are only temporary/caretaker and the HSE are ****e, yada yada". We're in one of the best places to be during a crisis like this.


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  • #3007
    paddythere
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 439 ✭✭paddythere


    ACitizenErased wrote: »
    Adding to the total and not reporting them is new is exactly the way it should be done. People are reporting them as new tests, that's the point. It's giving a false narrative.

    Yea i agree its the correct way, I just dont see how it is skewing the figures..If people read them the wrong way then that just fuels the 'pandumbic' but that cant really be helped


  • #3008
    zinfandel
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 234 ✭✭zinfandel


    paddythere wrote: »
    How are they skewing the figures?

    Because they are mainly old and recovered cases, people looking at 900 new cases each day for the last few days and the next few think the lock down is not working and things are escalating out of control.


  • #3009
    expectationlost
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,475 ✭✭✭✭expectationlost


    can we get those charts


  • #3010
    Azatadine
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,565 ✭✭✭Azatadine


    ACitizenErased wrote: »
    The CMO showed exactly this in the press conference. There's no spikes whatsoever in growth.

    I really do think they need to look at the format of how they present slides. They should either have a much bigger screen or have a camera well trained in on the screen so that the data/graph/formatting is clear.


  • #3011
    crossman47
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,597 ✭✭✭crossman47


    RugbyLad11 wrote: »
    It's like the smear test scandal all over again, can the HSE do anything right??

    Read the whole article; its a minor issue that has little overall effect.


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  • #3012
    davemckenna25
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,253 ✭✭✭davemckenna25


    RugbyLad11 wrote: »
    It's like the smear test scandal all over again, can the HSE do anything right??

    They are doing lots right... errors happen.. we all wish they didn't but they do. Overall I think this has been handled very well.


  • #3013
    ACitizenErased
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,749 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    Just in case some people don't understand the whole 'new' cases thing. Literally a quote from the government's press release:
    As of 11.15am Monday 13 April, the HPSC has been notified of the following cases:

    527 new confirmed cases of COVID-19 reported by Irish laboratories
    465 confirmed cases of COVID-19 reported by a laboratory in Germany

    509441.png

    509442.png


  • #3014
    paddythere
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 439 ✭✭paddythere


    zinfandel wrote: »
    Because they are mainly old and recovered cases, people looking at 900 new cases each day for the last few days and the next few think the lock down is not working and things are escalating out of control.

    The figures arent skewed though, its just dumb people not reading properly


  • #3015
    ACitizenErased
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,749 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    Azatadine wrote: »
    I really do think they need to look at the format of how they present slides. They should either have a much bigger screen or have a camera well trained in on the screen so that the data/graph/formatting is clear.
    Completely agree. They're not even released.


  • #3016
    Ace2007
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,029 ✭✭✭✭Ace2007


    ACitizenErased wrote: »
    https://twitter.com/FergalBowers/status/1249761656181116928?s=20

    Just on this, look mistake happen in every walk of life.

    But the important thing to remember is that it takes so long to get a result, that the people should have been self isolating long enough, and if they still had symptoms after the negative test, they should have self isolated and/or contacted their GP to say here look my test from 10 days ago in negative but I feel like sh!t.


  • #3017
    joe_99
    Closed Accounts Posts: 763 ✭✭✭joe_99


    Michael Dwyer wrote: »
    From a layman's point of view I don't get this.

    Cases have been going up from the 200s, 300s, 400s into the 500s over the last 3 weeks. Deaths have gone up where most days they are 25-36. I can't fathom that beautiful chart with ICU admission increases plummeting. If it's true great. But something doesn't add up, even with so many of our deaths in nursing homes.

    RIP to all.

    We are doing significantly more testing now. More testing more cases. ICU is the true figure to watch. Staying nice and stable


  • #3018
    Ace2007
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,029 ✭✭✭✭Ace2007


    ACitizenErased wrote: »
    Completely agree. They're not even released.

    What's not released?


  • #3019
    ACitizenErased
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,749 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    Ace2007 wrote: »
    What's not released?
    The charts that were shown at the press conference today by the CMO that allocates the German results to the dates they were taken and shows growth rate is still decreasing.


  • #3020
    speckle
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,251 ✭✭✭speckle


    JRant wrote: »
    Honestly can't make sense of these numbers.
    264 + 233 =/= 365

    maybe Irish citzens abroad or maybe in transit like ambulances? at one stage the difference was 6 so its got bigger.


  • #3021
    1641
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,292 ✭✭✭1641


    outsourced_ire wrote: »
    As an exercise, I'd be interested to see how things would look if they could be distributed to the dates when they most likely should have been counted, i.e.

    - Look at the dates the samples were taken
    - Look at what the average time it was taking to return results
    - Add the average number of days it was taking to return results to the sample taken date
    - Add the results into those days

    While I don't agree they should be included today as new cases (misleading, skews model, etc.), they still need to be accounted for in some way.

    Yes , they are included in the total number of cases.

    Also, Prof Philip Nolan indicated that they are include in the modelling figures which he presented last Thursday(?) and which are updated weekly. NPHET advise re restrictions etc are informed by this curve (as well as ICU figures, etc).


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  • #3022
    Fr_Dougal
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,166 ✭✭✭Fr_Dougal


    1641 wrote: »
    I think you are trying to be Chemical Ali 2. You know perfectly well that the German samples are from historical cases. Yes they should be included in our totals but as regards the ongoing trend they are not only meaningless but distorting.

    Can you provide a breakdown of when these German cases are from? Cases per day would be great.


  • #3023
    ACitizenErased
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,749 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    Fr_Dougal wrote: »
    Can you provide a breakdown of when these German cases are from? Cases per day would be great.
    If you head onto RTE twitter or RTE player and re-watch the news now conference the CMO showed when they're from. You're living up to your username.


  • #3024
    Mwengwe
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 454 ✭✭Mwengwe


    May have been off-base with earlier comments about supermarket workers

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/04/12/grocery-worker-fear-death-coronavirus/


  • #3025
    Fr_Dougal
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,166 ✭✭✭Fr_Dougal


    ACitizenErased wrote: »
    If you head onto RTE twitter or RTE player and re-watch the news now conference the CMO showed when they're from. You're living up to your username.

    Do you have the dates for these cases? You seem to be an expert.


  • #3026
    ACitizenErased
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,749 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    I've found the charts the CMO used in the press conference.

    First image shows growth of cases including German results WITHOUT attributing them to the time they were taken.
    509449.png

    Second image shows growth of cases including German results while attributing them to exactly the time they were taken.
    509450.png


  • #3027
    ACitizenErased
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,749 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    Fr_Dougal wrote: »
    Do you have the dates for these cases? You seem to be an expert.
    Nah I'll let the CMO deal with the dates. You seem to disagree with everything he says.


  • #3028
    expectationlost
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,475 ✭✭✭✭expectationlost


    archive of briefings here https://www.pscp.tv/rtenews/


  • #3029
    Fr_Dougal
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,166 ✭✭✭Fr_Dougal


    ACitizenErased wrote: »
    I've found the charts the CMO used in the press conference.

    First image shows growth of cases including German results WITHOUT attributing them to the time they were taken.
    [IMG]https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/attachment.php?attachmentid=509449&stc=1&d=1586803024[/IMG Second image shows growth of cases including German results while attributing them to exactly the time they were taken.[/img]attachment.php?attachmentid=509450&stc=1&d=1586803034IMG]

    Super, thanks. Genuinely appreciate it.


  • #3030
    Panrich
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,973 ✭✭✭Panrich


    paddythere wrote: »
    The figures arent skewed though, its just dumb people not reading properly

    The way that these figures are being presented is the problem. It's like a transition year project. If they are adding all these 'old' german tests and then having two sets of figures, then you can understand why people are getting confused.

    I said earlier, what is required are figures that show positives by test date. I suspect that this would not suit the narrative that the HSE want to portray though and would show that testing has not been as smooth as they would like us to think.


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  • #3031
    expectationlost
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,475 ✭✭✭✭expectationlost


    ACitizenErased wrote: »
    I've found the charts the CMO used in the press conference.

    First image shows growth of cases including German results WITHOUT attributing them to the time they were taken.
    509449.png

    Second image shows growth of cases including German results while attributing them to exactly the time they were taken.
    509450.png
    have you got that right did he not show 3 graphs


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