Dublin - Significant reduction in rents coming?

08-04-2020 7:56am

Sunny Disposition wrote: »

Token efforts were made, which failed utterly. Average rents are too high. It’s unacceptable and people are going to elect politicians who they think at least care about the problem, as they should.

I’m a landlord myself, but the proverbial dog with mallet in its arse can see that the current market is dysfunctional and completely disastrous for average workers.

In that case you are in a position to rent your property for next to nothing.

Considering that virtually every economist agrees that lack of supply is the biggest contributory factor in rental costs, a fact evident to anyone trying to find a rental property over the past few years, in your opinion, how would SF magic up 100k houses over the term of a Government? They haven’t been able to answer that themselves, maybe you can help them out.

LuckyLloyd · 08-04-2020 9:57am

https://news.crunchbase.com/news/silver-lake-and-sixth-street-partners-to-invest-1b-in-airbnb/

AirBnB have gone into the market for more capital. Could just be a contingency rather than a cash flow need. Can’t see them going public this year now.

The Student · 08-04-2020 10:04am

snotboogie wrote: »

It's a lot more complicated than that. You can't tax your way out of a depression. In theory, long term projects would help us repay the principal. Counter cyclical investment is how an economy should be run, spending on useful long term infrastructure in a recession to inject money into the economy while saving on the projects that would need to be done anyway and running budget surpluses in the boom times to build credibility, save money and avoid overheating the economy.

I am not saying you tax your way out of a depression (we will enter a recession not a depression). Yes we should inject money during recessionary times but we don't have this money to invest. We are only just balancing our books over the last year or so.

Long term capital projects that can reduce our cost base long term will help generate cost savings to Ireland and our need to borrow. It was suggested we undertake a large social house building project.

This will not generate any significant economic activity to generate tax income. Having people employed and spending money is what generates income tax hence the reason the state is making the covid 19 payments and made them so easy to access and at a higher level than standard job seekers allowance.

Certainly look at rural broadband, look at investing in Green energy these will yield cost savings longer term and will make us more competitive. House building in the short term wont.

We don't do social housing well although this is a different argument. We have this mindset that everybody should be housed no matter what they do. I don't want this forum to go off tangent.

The Student · 08-04-2020 10:10am

lomb wrote: »

Capital is never repayed though. It keeps getting rolled into new issuances. With unlimited ECB buying and liquidity creating a market that's how the game works. It's one rule for us and one for the Euro/Country

The farce of this is this whole thing is likely to cost the state nothing due to near zero rates.

Yes you can refinance via new issuance's but at some point the interest rates will increase and hence our debt (even if it is only interest debt). Whether the debt is capital or interest the monetary repayments we have to make will increase even if we only pay the interest charge.

We still owe from the last crisis which has to be paid even if its only the interest charge we have to pay. Remember every euro borrowed no matter from whom is owed to someone.

Sunny Disposition · 08-04-2020 11:15pm

Dav010 wrote: »

In that case you are in a position to rent your property for next to nothing.

Considering that virtually every economist agrees that lack of supply is the biggest contributory factor in rental costs, a fact evident to anyone trying to find a rental property over the past few years, in your opinion, how would SF magic up 100k houses over the term of a Government? They haven’t been able to answer that themselves, maybe you can help them out.

SF aren’t the whole solution, I know that.
The protest vote for them is significant though, and welcome in that it shows that failure to deliver on housing now has consequences. If parties know they will be punished for allowing prices to rise and rise the thinking will change.

Ozark707 · 12-04-2020 2:10pm

Leo predicting that rents will fall...

Both parties believe the current emergency rent freeze won’t need to be extended as more properties become available on the market due to the Covid-19 crisis. Taoiseach Leo Varadkar told this newspaper: “I don’t think that will be necessary. In fact, I think rents are likely to fall.”

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/fianna-failfg-pledge-to-look-after-tenants-in-new-deal-39121615.html

Hubertj · 12-04-2020 2:16pm

Ozark707 wrote: »

Leo predicting that rents will fall...

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/fianna-failfg-pledge-to-look-after-tenants-in-new-deal-39121615.html

I’d be happy if there was some reduction in rents if it meant i do’t have to listen to SF, PBP and the other losers whine on about it constantly.

accensi0n · 12-04-2020 2:21pm

Hubertj wrote: »

I’d be happy if there was some reduction in rents if it meant i do’t have to listen to SF, PBP and the other losers whine on about it constantly.

"Rents have been increasing 4% per year for the past 4 years, all rents should be reduced by 16% immediately"

:pac:

Hubertj · 12-04-2020 2:29pm

accensi0n wrote: »

"Rents have been increasing 4% per year for the past 4 years, all rents should be reduced by 16% immediately"

:pac:

Did someone actually say that? Or is that what the estimate for rent reductions are? Or you’re taking the pi*s?

accensi0n · 12-04-2020 2:30pm

Hubertj wrote: »

Did someone actually say that? Or is that what the estimate for rent reductions are? Or you’re taking the pi*s?

Apologies, just taking the p*ss, the moaning will never end.

Shefwedfan · 12-04-2020 9:38pm

Hubertj wrote: »

I’d be happy if there was some reduction in rents if it meant i do’t have to listen to SF, PBP and the other losers whine on about it constantly.

Rents would be at an all time low and those "parties" would still bw whinning about it......they cater for one part of society, the section that wants everything for nothing

Ozark707 · 12-04-2020 10:56pm

Shefwedfan wrote: »

Rents would be at an all time low and those "parties" would still bw whinning about it......they cater for one part of society, the section that wants everything for nothing

Now that rents look like they are quickly correcting downwards it will be interesting to see if they continue to bang this drum much going forward.

Hubertj · 12-04-2020 10:57pm

Ozark707 wrote: »

Now that rents look like they are quickly correcting downwards it will be interesting to see if they continue to bang this drum much going forward.

Are they quickly correcting downwards?

Shefwedfan · 12-04-2020 10:59pm

Ozark707 wrote: »

Now that rents look like they are quickly correcting downwards it will be interesting to see if they continue to bang this drum much going forward.

Where have rents dropped?

Nobody can move so not sure how the market is anything but stable

Ozark707 · 13-04-2020 8:58am

Shefwedfan wrote: »

Where have rents dropped?

Nobody can move so not sure how the market is anything but stable

The median price of 1 bed, 2 bed (apt & house) and 3 bed apt all dropped by ~5% between 15 March and 01 Apr.

https://bl.ocks.org/pinsterdev/raw/234b4a5310a14a32e080/

Since the 1st of April there have been several instances of other places dropping their asking prices so when these charts are updated at the start of May it will be interesting to see if this trend continues or it reverses to norm.

https://thepropertypin.com/c/the-irish-property-bubble/rental-price-drops

Previously I had not heard of anyone securing rentals at less than asking, in fact I had heard of several anecdotes where people offered more than asking in order to secure a place. There was an article in IT one or two weeks back where EA's were saying that offers of 10% off asking were now coming in.

Whether this is a temporary blip remains to be seen once the relaxation comes (possibly next month).

overkill602 · 13-04-2020 9:34am

anyone trying to let at the moment would be in a smaller market with some bargain hunters, difficult time to vet potential tenants some airbnb stuff offer less than 6 months to avoid part 4.

the market is not functioning it depends on relaxation of lock down if students can resume college and tourism start to open up again.

Those who are not being gouged, have good accommodation and management will stay put as long as they can afford.

Their will be reductions but some landlords and tenants are still tied in to below market these may be of less quality than the newer lets ie reits who may come under pressure like the last recession if the market swing in tenants favor it will find it own level regs, extra taxes and supply are different this time.

Ozark707 · 13-04-2020 10:00am

overkill602 wrote: »

anyone trying to let at the moment would be in a smaller market with some bargain hunters, difficult time to vet potential tenants some airbnb stuff offer less than 6 months to avoid part 4.

the market is not functioning it depends on relaxation of lock down if students can resume college and tourism start to open up again.

Those who are not being gouged, have good accommodation and management will stay put as long as they can afford.

Their will be reductions but some landlords and tenants are still tied in to below market these may be of less quality than the newer lets ie reits who may come under pressure like the last recession if the market swing in tenants favor it will find it own level regs, extra taxes and supply are different this time.

Students should return in the medium term. The question I would have is whether there will be the same number of overseas students coming as up to now. If not then the purpose built student accommodation could come under pressure. I had noticed that pre-Covid there seemed to be quite a bit of availability even though term was well under way. There is quite a bit of extra supply to come on stream in the medium to long term (take a trip through Belfield for example and you will see several multi-story blocks under construction).

Assetbacked · 13-04-2020 11:04am

It's safe to say that rent increases in the next six to twelve months are highly unlikely. As for rents falling, in the next six months demand will be minimal for the less affordable rentals so long as decent places are available at affordable rents so it is probable that there will be fairly significant falls in this time. After this time, it's hard to know at this stage. Demand from foreign tourism and student accommodation will be gone until 2021.

Foreign tourism is probably dust until summer season 2021 and international students are highly unlikely to return for university in September, maybe for semester two best case scenario, meaning close to a full 12 months of vacancies for the student accommodation catering for that market and a full 12 months for the tourism market. One silver lining to tourism may be demand from domestic tourism as people desperately seek some form of escape from work and staying home for a few months.

I think the general rental market for workers is going to take a hit for the next six months at least due to people not being able to return to Dublin from the country or abroad. This also applies to executives and short term employees being brought over where companies would have had leases on apartments to cover short term stays - these won't be necessary. In addition, if leases are ending in the next few weeks and months, people will take advantage of the cheaper rentals available currently and move to the cheaper places. WFH still being applied meaning the demand for prime location apartments may not be there. After six months, whether jobs are lost, further reducing demand for rentals, will be dependent on how long the stringent measures are applied. It's too early to say at this stage as everything is on hold.

The longer term picture points to huge numbers of build-to-lets being granted planning permission the past year and a half which would increase supply to the market and help alleviate the hyper growth of rents the past few years. The investors are in it for the long term and all I see is a delay of a year or so with these projects as a result of covid19.

Hubertj · 13-04-2020 11:20am

Ozark707 wrote: »

The median price of 1 bed, 2 bed (apt & house) and 3 bed apt all dropped by ~5% between 15 March and 01 Apr.

https://bl.ocks.org/pinsterdev/raw/234b4a5310a14a32e080/

Since the 1st of April there have been several instances of other places dropping their asking prices so when these charts are updated at the start of May it will be interesting to see if this trend continues or it reverses to norm.

https://thepropertypin.com/c/the-irish-property-bubble/rental-price-drops

Previously I had not heard of anyone securing rentals at less than asking, in fact I had heard of several anecdotes where people offered more than asking in order to secure a place. There was an article in IT one or two weeks back where EA's were saying that offers of 10% off asking were now coming in.

Whether this is a temporary blip remains to be seen once the relaxation comes (possibly next month).

Interesting stats especially on : bed houses moving in opposite direction. Does that mean more came within propels price range?
Some crazy numbers being looked for on rentals.

Edgware · 13-04-2020 11:31am

Hubertj wrote: »

I’d be happy if there was some reduction in rents if it meant i do’t have to listen to SF, PBP and the other losers whine on about it constantly.

Sorry it doesnt work that way.
Whining is party policy along with never acknowledging anything positive about Ireland.

Hubertj · 13-04-2020 11:36am

Edgware wrote: »

Sorry it doesnt work that way.
Whining is party policy along with never acknowledging anything positive about Ireland.

I know, it’s just that the sound of people like obrion, Murphy,Barrett etc grates on my nerves really really really really badly.

Ticking and Bashing · 13-04-2020 11:38am

I can't imagine IRES REIT (Ireland's biggest private landlord) reducing rents anytime soon.

handlemaster · 13-04-2020 11:41am

Italy and Spain are opening back up there economies , ireland should do so within a month. We will all learn to live with the virus and move on until there is a vaccine. Rents will stagnate. But depending in the speed of the return . You might actually see a scramble to get back to Dublin and rents move up again. It's hard to say. But if you look at the US they have a clown in charge and have no clue how to organise this could drag on and on if a vaccine isn't found.

Blut2 · 13-04-2020 12:56pm

Hubertj wrote: »

Are they quickly correcting downwards?

[img][/img]https://i.imgur.com/xUObSsj.jpg

Its happening pretty quickly already in Dublin.

I'd expect by the 1st May that map will be a lot more dense again, given that on the 1st Apr we were only just starting our full economic lockdown.

Hubertj · 13-04-2020 12:59pm

Blut2 wrote: »

[img][/img]https://i.imgur.com/xUObSsj.jpg

Its happening pretty quickly already in Dublin.

I'd expect by the 1st May that map will be a lot more dense again, given that on the 1st Apr we were only just starting our full economic lockdown.

Does it show how many are being rented? Some look like they have as when you click the link to daft is gives an error?

13-04-2020 1:08pm

Belgrave property who own something like 50 STL studio and 1 bed properties in D2, D4, D6 have plastered 1 MONTH FREE RENT all over their ads. Looks like a sign of desperation to get people in for “free” in April and then monthly until the tourists start coming back.

https://www.daft.ie/22020888

Rodin · 13-04-2020 1:12pm

Blut2 wrote: »

[img][/img]https://i.imgur.com/xUObSsj.jpg

Its happening pretty quickly already in Dublin.

I'd expect by the 1st May that map will be a lot more dense again, given that on the 1st Apr we were only just starting our full economic lockdown.

That April map shows a larger area than the February map.

Hubertj · 13-04-2020 1:18pm

cisk wrote: »

Belgrave property who own something like 50 STL studio and 1 bed properties in D2, D4, D6 have plastered 1 MONTH FREE RENT all over their ads. Looks like a sign of desperation to get people in for “free” in April and then monthly until the tourists start coming back.

https://www.daft.ie/22020888

Is that not a lot for a studio? €1626?

13-04-2020 1:52pm

Hubertj wrote: »

Is that not a lot for a studio? €1626?

That one seems to be a 1-bed although the description paragraph says studio. But yeah even though they seem to be a high standard they are very optimistic. Some other studios they have are about the size of a cell in mount joy.

“ Several of the properties are between 13 sq m and 15 sq m in size. This is only slightly larger than a cell in Mountjoy Prison, which is typically 8 sq m, while several cells in the women’s section are 11.7 sq m.”
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/renovated-dublin-bedsits-flood-onto-market-after-coronavirus-restrictions-trvjxwf9t

Ozark707 · 13-04-2020 1:53pm

Hubertj wrote: »

Is that not a lot for a studio? €1626?

Indeed and there are other developments that are now advertising 2 months free rent but at a level I would consider high. I suppose you could always bargain them down from this level as there are now signs of desperation coming so someone will go down further.

Ozark707 · 13-04-2020 1:57pm

Ticking and Bashing wrote: »

I can't imagine IRES REIT (Ireland's biggest private landlord) reducing rents anytime soon.

What is going to happen when someone in there who is paying some of the REIT level rents notices they can do much better elsewhere....the REIT is going to be down a tenant with little or no chance replacing them at the previous level. I can understand at the volume they operate at that they will try to hold the line as long as possible but that will only work for so long.

Clancy Quays (place near Heuston Station) looks like it has a couple of new blocks just about to hit the market, down in the IFSC there are loads in the pipeline as well. Is there the market for this amount given Capital Dock is over 50% empty a year after opening?

Hubertj · 13-04-2020 2:02pm

Ozark707 wrote: »

Indeed and there are other developments that are now advertising 2 months free rent but at a level I would consider high. I suppose you could always bargain them down from this level as there are now signs of desperation coming so someone will go down further.

2 months free is effectively 16%ish which is not a bad discount. Are you referring to the development near the point? I used to pass by on my way to work every morning. They look nice and have nice facilities but pricey

Ozark707 · 13-04-2020 2:26pm

Hubertj wrote: »

2 months free is effectively 16%ish which is not a bad discount. Are you referring to the development near the point? I used to pass by on my way to work every morning. They look nice and have nice facilities but pricey

I think the development near the Point is only 1 month free but at those prices they should probably be 2. The one I was referring to was either D1/7. The last time I checked daft they were still being listed after being discounted for a couple of weeks.

There was an article in IT either last week or previous one where EA's were saying it was 'temporarily' a renters market. I think there was a reference to places listed at 2300 but having to take 2100. I would view all prices now as aspirational and would go in hard if I was looking for somewhere to rent.

Assetbacked · 13-04-2020 2:46pm

Ozark707 wrote: »

What is going to happen when someone in there who is paying some of the REIT level rents notices they can do much better elsewhere....the REIT is going to be down a tenant with little or no chance replacing them at the previous level. I can understand at the volume they operate at that they will try to hold the line as long as possible but that will only work for so long.

Clancy Quays (place near Heuston Station) looks like it has a couple of new blocks just about to hit the market, down in the IFSC there are loads in the pipeline as well. Is there the market for this amount given Capital Dock is over 50% empty a year after opening?

The prospect of a vacant property tax hitting these developments would encourage them to lower their rents.

Edgware · 13-04-2020 2:58pm

Assetbacked wrote: »

The prospect of a vacant property tax hitting these developments would encourage them to lower their rents.

Well the " its not constitutional" argument against interference with private property went out the window fairly quickly once Covid hit here. FF and FG know they have only one chance to solve the rental and housing crisis. The old "Never waste a good recession" line is there to be played in a new Government. A FF Soc Dem and Labour grouping would be strong enough to hold FG in a four party administration.
Vacant property tax, rent freezes etc could come very easy. I don't think any landlord can complain if rents are frozen at 2020 level or even reduced to 2019 level

Ozark707 · 13-04-2020 3:08pm

Edgware wrote: »

Vacant property tax, rent freezes etc could come very easy. I don't think any landlord can complain if rents are frozen at 2020 level or even reduced to 2019 level

Leo said in interview over weekend that a rent freeze won't be needed as rents are going to drop anyway

A vacant tax would truly set the cat amongst the pigeons. Hopefully this won't be needed as the hoarders of these units will see that as rent drops they might as well get something in for them. The REIT's used to boast of almost full occupancy, to maintain that then they will have to reduce their rents (though I imagine they will do it through incentives like one months free rent rather than an explicit drop).

Blut2 · 13-04-2020 3:34pm

A vacant property tax in the RPZs is a pretty easy win for the government, I can see that coming in even under an exclusively FF/FG government. They're going to be desperate to find new revenue streams for the corona-recession, but will be loathe to up PAYE/USC again. So it'll be the at-the-fringe taxes like that which they'll turn to.

If its limited to within the RPZs it also won't hit the holiday homes that a lot of older FF/FG voters have down the country.

Plus revenue raising aside the positive effects it'll have on the housing crisis, taking the wind out of SF's sails, etc.

Hubertj · 13-04-2020 3:57pm

Blut2 wrote: »

A vacant property tax in the RPZs is a pretty easy win for the government, I can see that coming in even under an exclusively FF/FG government. They're going to be desperate to find new revenue streams for the corona-recession, but will be loathe to up PAYE/USC again. So it'll be the at-the-fringe taxes like that which they'll turn to.

If its limited to within the RPZs it also won't hit the holiday homes that a lot of older FF/FG voters have down the country.

Plus revenue raising aside the positive effects it'll have on the housing crisis, taking the wind out of SF's sails, etc.

How would you implement the tax? If a unit is inlet for x period then x charge applies? How would it be assessed and collected etc?

Edgware · 13-04-2020 4:19pm

Of course FGs lawyer pals will make a tidy income out of it testing its constitutionality.
Win win

Blut2 · 13-04-2020 4:28pm

Hubertj wrote: »

How would you implement the tax? If a unit is inlet for x period then x charge applies? How would it be assessed and collected etc?

Something along the lines of "If a property within an RPZ has no registered occupant for over 3 months a vacant property tax of .01% of value per month from the fourth month on-wards will be applied" would seem reasonably fair to me. Though obviously that figure could increase to a more populist/punitive/profitable for the state level, depending on the public mood.

Its pretty easy for the state to check if a property has a registered full time occupant or not, especially when they have a large financial incentive to do so efficiently. The fact the department of Revenue is by far the most efficient/well-run government department is largely down to that financial incentive.

Collecting it is the easy part - the easiest is send bills to the registered owner of the property, and if they go unpaid place them (+interest) as a charge against the property when it gets sold. Though they could do it any number of ways, again depending on how populist/punitive the mood is.

Experience_day · 13-04-2020 4:33pm

Blut2 wrote: »

Something along the lines of "If a property within an RPZ has no registered occupant for over 3 months a vacant property tax of .01% of value per month from the fourth month on-wards will be applied" would seem reasonably fair to me. Though obviously that figure could increase to a more populist/punitive/profitable for the state level, depending on the public mood.

Its pretty easy for the state to check if a property has a registered full time occupant or not, especially when they have a large financial incentive to do so efficiently. The fact the department of Revenue is by far the most efficient/well-run government department is largely down to that financial incentive.

Collecting it is the easy part - the easiest is send bills to the registered owner of the property, and if they go unpaid place them (+interest) as a charge against the property when it gets sold. Though they could do it any number of ways, again depending on how populist/punitive the mood is.

Seems pretty unfair to me. Making the market and thus country pretty unpalatable feels short sighted...

Claw Hammer · 13-04-2020 4:35pm

Blut2 wrote: »

Something along the lines of "If a property within an RPZ has no registered occupant for over 3 months a vacant property tax of .01% of value per month from the fourth month on-wards will be applied" would seem reasonably fair to me. Though obviously that figure could increase to a more populist/punitive/profitable for the state level, depending on the public mood.

Its pretty easy for the state to check if a property has a registered full time occupant or not, especially when they have a large financial incentive to do so efficiently. The fact the department of Revenue is by far the most efficient/well-run government department is largely down to that financial incentive.

Collecting it is the easy part - the easiest is send bills to the registered owner of the property, and if they go unpaid place them (+interest) as a charge against the property when it gets sold. Though they could do it any number of ways, again depending on how populist/punitive the mood is.

There are many properties within RPZs which have occupants but none of them are registered. Why should they be hit with a tax?

Melanchthon · 13-04-2020 4:44pm

Claw Hammer wrote: »

There are many properties within RPZs which have occupants but none of them are registered. Why should they be hit with a tax?

Why wouldn't they be registered if they are operating above board.

Claw Hammer · 13-04-2020 4:45pm

Melanchthon wrote: »

Why wouldn't they be registered if they are operating above board.

They may be owner occupied for example, so why would they be registered?

Ozark707 · 13-04-2020 4:50pm

Claw Hammer wrote: »

They may be owner occupied for example, so why would they be registered?

Sounds pretty simple to overcome where they could just ask for a declaration as to whether it is a PPR or not on the property tax form?

Claw Hammer · 13-04-2020 4:55pm

Ozark707 wrote: »

Sounds pretty simple to overcome where they could just ask for a declaration as to whether it is a PPR or not on the property tax form?

What about the tenants who are liable for the tax? Wold they have to pay a vacant tax on a property which is occupied?

Ozark707 · 13-04-2020 5:00pm

Claw Hammer wrote: »

What about the tenants who are liable for the tax? Wold they have to pay a vacant tax on a property which is occupied?

Tenants pay property tax?

Claw Hammer · 13-04-2020 5:00pm

Ozark707 wrote: »

Tenants pay property tax?

Yes. Thousands of them.

Ozark707 · 13-04-2020 5:10pm

Claw Hammer wrote: »

Yes. Thousands of them.

Had no idea, would have assumed it was bundled into price.

Melanchthon · 13-04-2020 5:20pm

Ozark707 wrote: »

Had no idea, would have assumed it was bundled into price.

It is bundled with the price in any place you see on daft which has an awful lot of properties in the rent pressure zones.

Dublin - Significant reduction in rents coming?

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